Ivan on Tech gives an emergency Bitcoin market update following a US Treasury bond buyback signal
Ivan on Tech delivers a solo live stream arguing that a US Treasury bond buyback announcement is a major liquidity catalyst for Bitcoin and crypto markets.
Summary
Ivan on Tech hosts an unscheduled evening live stream triggered by a significant move in US Treasury markets and a corresponding pump in Bitcoin and other crypto assets. He argues that the US government's decision to buy back its own long-dated bonds — amid 30-year Treasury yields reaching their highest levels since 2007 — signals the beginning of a new liquidity cycle that historically benefits Bitcoin. He contends that the government's budget-funded buybacks are only a temporary measure, and that the Federal Reserve will inevitably be forced to step in with money printing, echoing the dynamics seen during COVID.
Ivan is careful to note that the current pump could still be a 'lower high' or 'bull jackulation' within an ongoing bear trend, and that Bitcoin and most altcoins remain technically in a bear trend. However, he argues the setup is compelling on both a price basis and a time basis: bear markets historically last approximately one year from the peak, and that anniversary is now roughly one month away.
On price, Ivan notes that Bitcoin is approximately 15% away from flipping to a bull trend on his indicators, Solana is approximately 13% away, and Ethereum is the closest at only approximately 4% away — distances that could be covered within days given current momentum. He conducts an extended altcoin-by-altcoin review, highlighting that Hype is near all-time highs, Zcash remains in a bull trend, and tokens such as ADA, DOT, Tao, Sui, and TON are lagging. He also notes that FALCON coin has flipped to a bull trend versus both ADA and DOT.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Emergency Live Stream: Bitcoin Pumps as US Treasury Intervenes in Bond Market
Ivan on Tech: Welcome to this emergency evening live stream here on Ivan on Tech. As you can see right now, Bitcoin has been having a bit of a pump. We had a bit of a pump today. People are saying that Bitcoin is starting to live la vida loca. Is it time for us to relax and see the beauty of the greenness?
Something very important to realize is that this is not an isolated event. This pump right here is not just out of nowhere. It comes right after the US Treasury — basically the US government — said that they will be buying the bonds. They will be buying their own bonds with both hands. They would be using both hands because no one is buying their bonds.
The US Treasury yield on the 30-year, for example, was the highest since 2007. If I go to this chart, I remove the trends, and we just look at how high this yield was a few days ago — you see it's the highest since basically here, since 2007. So the trust in the dollar is very low. The trust in the US government is very low. When the yield is going up like this, it means that the financial markets are not lending money to the US. The financial markets are saying, "Hey, for us to lend you money, you need to pay a high interest rate because we don't trust you. Maybe you're going to hyperinflate. What the hell is going to happen? We need a high interest rate. If you give us a high interest rate, we will give you money because then it's lower risk." So the higher the yield, the worse it is for the government, because they have to pay a high cost. They have to pay a high interest rate. They have a smaller budget to spend on their population, and so on and so forth.
How Treasury Buybacks Work — and Why the Fed Is Next
So how does the government bring this yield back? Well, they have to basically buy their own bonds. If they go and buy their own bonds, the supply of bonds is going to be less, which means that the price of bonds is going to go up. When the price of bonds goes up, the yield comes down.
So the next step is that this money is going to come from the Fed. Currently, it's coming from the US government. The US government is using their own budget in order to buy bonds. That budget is going to end very quickly, but the problem is not going to end. The problem of high yields is not going to end. So you will have the Fed stepping in next. That's the next step in this situation.
And of course, it's very big news. For us it's very big news because this has not happened in a very long time — that the government comes out and says, "Hey, we're a bit desperate. We need to pump our own financial markets. We have to pump our own bond market." Basically, it's COVID times. The last time we saw this was COVID time. You remember what happened in the COVID time? To be a bear in the COVID time was not too smart, because as soon as they started to help the market, pump the market, we started to go very high. Bitcoin started the la vida loca very quickly.
Bitcoin and Altcoins: How Close Are We to a Bull Trend Flip?
And so that's why currently we're in a situation where most assets in crypto are still in a bear trend. Even Bitcoin is still in a bear trend, but you really have to pay attention here, guys. You really have to pay attention. Bitcoin, for example, just has to pump like 15% to go bull trend. It can literally happen within a few days. Today we had — how much was it today? 8, 10%? Literally, this can happen tomorrow. It can happen in like two days. We just need to pump 15%.
Solana needs to pump — how much to go to bull trend? It needs to pump also — okay, 13%. 13%. If we go bull trend on Solana, we say goodbye to our buy zone at $30. Then it's not going to happen. But we're still bear trend, but we're close. We're close to bull. We're close to the end of the bear.
I truly feel that this is the time for us to mentally be bull. We're mentally bull. Practically, we're not super bull yet because we have to go to bull trend. We have to see the bull trend. We have to stay disciplined. Could this still be just a lower high? It could. People are saying, "Ivan, it could be a lower high." I know. I mean, I probably told you about the lower high because we were saying that this right here is a lower high — it's a bull jackulation, pretty much a premature bull jackulation — and you had just had a series of lower highs. And now this can also practically be a lower high.
It is good. We're still in bear trend, but the difference is that we're so close to Q4 now. Literally, at the end of August. The end of August is like a month left — a month left for us to have a year since the peak, and bear markets normally last a year. So that's the big difference. It's a very, very big difference now that we're basically in September. We're 11 days from September. It's a massive difference because you have a price-based capitulation, and yeah, price-wise it can still continue lower because it's bear trend. But then you have the time-based capitulation, which means that approximately a year after the peak, you've got to be bullish. You've got to be looking at the bright side, and as soon as we flip bull trend, fantastic. We'll go Lady Gaga with both hands.
Looking at the daily trend for Bitcoin — it's been bullish since basically mid-June. It's been sideways, but now it's interesting because it is breaking to the upside. We're seeing the daily trend go to the upside from these previous highs. So yeah, a lot of strength from Bitcoin right now. Still too early to have a full return to bull, but guys, we may literally be like a week from it. If we go to bull trend, man — it's going to be crazy.
The Bull Case: Dollar Liquidity, Treasury Buybacks, and Bitcoin's Role
So the situation is as follows. The bull case is simple and mechanical. The US Treasury just signaled it will double liquidity support — buybacks in the 10-year and the 30-year part of the curve. Basically, the long-term yields are too high. That puts fresh cash into the financial system. We need fresh cash as soon as possible.
Bitcoin has historically been one of the cleanest high-beta expressions of rising dollar liquidity. As soon as you have liquidity rising, Bitcoin rises. Bitcoin is there pumping. Bitcoin is there dancing on the table. And that is exactly what we're laying out here.
You have the US Treasury coming out. It's time to pay attention. We're going to see the money printer coming back. Treasury buybacks means cash out the door — cash is getting deployed into financial markets, from the government in this case, and soon from the Fed. When the government buys its own longer-dated bonds from the market, dealers and holders receive dollars, because someone is holding these assets. When the US government buys them, they create new money from the Fed, or they buy with their own budget. Currently they buy with just the government budget — they don't create new money yet — but they will have to soon, because the budget is not endless, but the problem is endless.
Budget not endless, but the problem is endless. I love that. It kind of summarizes the whole situation with the dollar. You could have temporary support by the government when they buy the bonds with the budget, but the budget is not endless. The problem is not endless, so you will have to have the printer.
That's number one. Number two — it's concentrated in the long end, and that part of the curve is where duration risk and term premiums live. Supporting it reduces the odds of a disorderly backup in long yields and signals that the official sector is willing to absorb. So the next step is money printing.
Once Treasury is already running liquidity support operations, the political and market path of least resistance often becomes a friendlier Fed. The Fed starts to swing. They swing something big — they will start swinging it big, and liquidity is going to be coming out of it.
Bitcoin's historical role: Bitcoin has no cash flows and a fixed supply. When excess liquidity rises and the real yield opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets falls, capital has repeatedly rotated into Bitcoin. So as yields come down, Bitcoin is going to come up. More dollars chasing scarce assets such as Bitcoin — obviously, for crypto as a whole, it's going to be fantastic. We just need to go into bull trend.
ETH Approaching Bull Trend — Altcoin Roundup
ETH, ETH, ETH. Who would have guessed? Tom Lee is going to be very, very happy. If ETH goes bull trend — ETH is probably the closest to bull trend — we're going to be mega bullish on ETH. We're going to be bullish on all of the L2s. All of the forgotten L2s, we're going to be loving.
Look at Hype — almost at all-time high. Hype teleporting back to all-time high. As it goes above these previous weekly closes, fantastic. Bullish as hell.
Zcash still in bull trend. Tao — very, very weak. I was actually staying away from it because it's not doing anything, even though it's technically bull. Sui not doing anything. Rollbit — waiting for it to pump back. ADA not doing too much, unfortunately. DOT — basically at all-time lows. TON not doing too much.
But ETH, man. Solana — what did we say? 13% away from bull trend. ETH — how much? 4% away from bull trend. Fantastic.
FORD coin — potential double bottom. Let's see if FORD coin recovers faster than ADA. Wouldn't that be crazy? FALCON versus ADA is now in bull trend. FALCON versus ADA has actually had quite a nice bear market — it's been holding up quite nicely, now in bull trend. This chart looks actually bullish. FALCON versus DOT — can DOT compete with FALCON? Basically sideways. But now bull trend. FALCON is bull trend versus ADA and versus DOT.