Bitcoin analysis: bearish near-term outlook with a major buying opportunity expected in Q4 2026
Ivan on Tech delivers a solo Bitcoin and crypto market analysis, arguing that a further price drop is likely before a major bull market recovery later in 2026.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a bearish near-term outlook for Bitcoin, noting that price is being rejected by the 200-day Moving Average and that the weekly trend remains firmly bearish — consistent with the risk-off position he says he has held since October 8th, 2025. He argues that Bitcoin is following the same cycle pattern as 2021–2022, and that the bottom is likely to form around Q4 2026, approximately one year after the top, because that is how long the human brain takes to reset from greed to optimism.
Ivan highlights Zcash, Hyperliquid, and Tron as among the strongest performers in the current bear market, and argues that assets showing strength during a bear tend to lead gains in the subsequent bull. A substantial portion of the episode is devoted to Tron's outperformance of Ethereum since inception, including a clip from content creator Gainzy criticising Vitalik Buterin, which Ivan broadly endorses on price-performance grounds while distancing himself from personal attacks. Ivan also notes that multiple Ethereum protocol leads have recently resigned and questions whether this represents a bottoming signal or continued deterioration.
A significant portion of the episode covers the broader theme of AI-driven job displacement, with Ivan arguing that white-collar workers face serious risk and that learning financial markets and mechanical trading rules is the most practical response. He plays clips of Eric Schmidt addressing students and notes the hostile reception AI messaging is receiving from younger audiences, warning of a coming political swing toward redistribution and socialism as a result.
On the macro side, Ivan cites US 30-year government bond yields at their highest since 2007 (5.1%) as a signal that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to print money and buy long-term bonds — a development he argues will be a major catalyst for risk assets including crypto. He also addresses EU skepticism toward USDT and USDC, arguing that what Tether does with its corporate treasury is separate from client funds and that the EU critique is misplaced.
Ivan argues that money will rotate from AI and semiconductors into crypto later in 2026, presenting Bull Mania community gains in AMD, Micron, and Rocket Lab as examples of the AI trade already well-executed. He suggests the next bull cycle narrative may centre on a return to 'cyberpunk' values — privacy, decentralisation, and anti-establishment sentiment — as a counterpoint to Bitcoin becoming increasingly associated with Wall Street and institutional players like Michael Saylor's Strategy. ETF flows for Bitcoin have turned negative over the past 30 days (approximately $900 million in outflows), though total AUM remains elevated due to price appreciation since the ETFs launched in 2024.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin rejected at the 200-day Moving Averages — bear trend intact
Ivan: Bitcoin is doing something very interesting right now. It's getting rejected in real time by the 200-day Moving Averages. We discussed it yesterday. It almost goes into a daily bear trend. On the daily, it had a bit of a small bull trend here since mid-April. On the daily, we're fighting with the bear flip.
I really want this stream to be positive, but as you know, since October 8th — since Q4 2025, specifically since October 8th — we've been very risk-off. We've been selling everything, exiting positions, protecting capital. And since then we have been bearish. By the way, we're still bearish, just to be clear. There's another dip likely coming. We're still bearish because the weekly is still bearish.
But I do want to ensure that everyone understands that within the coming months — towards September, towards October — the likelihood of a big fat bottom that leads to the next great opportunity in investing, not only in crypto but in investing as a whole, is going to start around that time frame.
The bear market cycle and why the bottom should come around Q4 2026
If you look at how Bitcoin normally proceeds through bear markets, we've been exact. I know people are crying, "Oh, it cannot be exact, can never be exact." Listen, don't overcomplicate. It's exact. It topped out in Q4 2025, just like in Q4 2021. The reason why people are losing so much money is because they think they're smarter than the market. They think they've figured out something. They called this bear market a "suppressed bull." They don't even want to say what it is. It's a bear market. Listen, don't be a smartass. Follow the trend. The trend is bearish. It topped out in Q4, in October — exactly like we said.
With the highest likelihood, we see that it's progressing like before, and if you just extend that thinking, the bottom should be around Q4 2026. I don't make the rules. We discussed yesterday that it takes approximately a year for the human brain to reset — for the human brain to go from super scared to being optimistic. That is why a bear market takes around a year. It takes one year to reset all of the greed, to reset all of the fugazi, all of the snake oil that happened in the previous bull. The bear resets it, and it takes around a year, and then we can continue to the upside.
Why crypto deserves attention later this year — the rotation trade
Now, here is why it's so important to pay attention to crypto, especially later this year. There is a very high likelihood we come down into this buy zone within the coming months. Here is where you really have to pay attention — because money is going to rotate like there's no tomorrow from AI, from semiconductors, into crypto. I believe that's going to be the next big fat trade.
We have been trading the semiconductors extremely well. Later in the stream, I will play a summary of the bull mania gains report. This is what we've been sharing with our group. Jason from our team has summarized the journey we've had with AMD, with Micron, with Rocket Lab, and others.
Now you have the attention and hype in AI, and we've been riding it pretty well. The problem is that at some point it will rotate. It will rotate just like crypto rotated into AI. AI will rotate back into crypto, likely later this year, because at the end of the day you have so much attention on it. Bull trends come to an end eventually. Parabolas come to an end eventually. We're not guessing when they're going to end — we look at the trend. We're going to be acting based on the trend. But if we are to speculate a bit, Q4 this year seems like a very reasonable place to do this rotation.
And it's going to be very soon. You have summer now. It's June — already June. In ten days it's June. You cannot even blink. It's already June. Then bam, you go on vacation. It's July. You sip a bit of piña colada. It's August. And then bam, it is basically Q4. Very, very quickly. So that's why it's time to train your brain on the bullishness also.
The psychological challenge of switching from bear to bull
Many people — what's going to happen is we're going to have a big fat flash. That's very likely, by the way. But most people are going to be stuck in bear for too long also. I know it firsthand, because back in 2023 when we became bullish, it was super unpopular. People were saying, "How can you be bullish? You were bearish here. Why are you bullish now?" Just like people got very upset in Q4 on October 8th when we said it's time to be risk-off. People said, "Why are you bearish? You should be bullish. You were bullish one week. Why did you change?"
People really have a problem with switching. When it's time to switch, you've got to switch. There's no pride in going down with the ship. The markets change all the time, and the whole point of being in the market is to shift — because sometimes they go down and you have to be shifting from bull to bear, and sometimes they go up and you have to be shifting from bear to bull. Because most people don't understand how markets work, they have no idea about the mechanical rules, they have no clue about how you actually navigate the market. They think that because they were bullish yesterday, they have to be bullish today. By this logic, you're always bullish and then you go to zero. Or you switch to bearish and you think, "Okay, now I've got to be bearish. That's my identity." No. You have to be switching when things switch.
So for now, we're still bearish. We're still heavily bearish on the weekly. Likely a big fat flash is coming. But that flash is going to be the most important bull signal — especially if you have a lot of volume, a high-volume flash. If the market presses the big flash button, it's going to be very, very important. It's probably going to be the most important event since October 8th. And if we see a big flash with big fat volume, that is going to be the other side of the trade that will have to be taken.
Bitcoin price action — weak on daily and weekly
All in all, Bitcoin price is looking a bit weak. If we go from the macro to the micro, just looking at what's happening today, this week — it looks weak. We got rejected by the 200-day. We're now struggling with this bull flip. We're on the brink of flipping bearish on the daily. On the weekly, we're deeper — we're inside the bear zone for a long time. We can barely see light. The sun does not shine where we are right now inside the bear.
At some point it's going to switch. Sometimes we do have short-term bull trends on the daily, on lower time frames. People get so excited. They say, "New all-time high coming." Listen, relax. It's not coming yet. Eventually it's going to come — I'm already preparing you mentally for later this year. Now it's not coming. More likely a big fat flash towards the downside. But still technically bullish on the daily on the short term. Let's see how long this continues.
Altcoin strength — Zcash and Hyperliquid standing out
If we look at the overall market, there are a few things we have to pay attention to. Number one: the strength in certain altcoins like Zcash. It is very, very impressive. It is in a bull trend on the daily since mid-April, and it's basically gone from the 200s to the 500s. I put a lot of weight on the strength in Zcash, because as the next bull comes back, these kinds of assets that are strong in the bear are very likely to lead the gainers in the bull.
Also think about Q3, Q4 — start preparing. You know the saying: to fail to plan is to plan to fail. So start to plan. Don't fail to plan. We're always now planning.
Look at Zcash — the strength in it is quite insane. Also, Taiki had a very nice take on this, basically that it's a very easy thing to root for, and we need to go away from the snake oil. This industry has been so much snake oil. The last bull market had too much. VC garbage, VC vaporware, VC snake oil, the L2 industrial complex — it's a big fat snake oil. We've had so much of it. Obviously we had memes too. Memes are more honest snake oil — they're saying, "Listen, we're worthless, but let's pump anyway because there are no insiders." Later on, insiders also came into memecoins, creating many addresses, many accounts, pumping together and dumping together.
So the return to basics — I really love that idea. Return to cyberpunk. And by the way, Bitcoin itself is now captured by Saylor. It's captured by Wall Street. And what is the answer? Maybe Zcash is the answer. Looking at the strength, there is something here — bigly, in a big way. So as we get back into bullishness for Bitcoin later this year, Zcash could be a monumental part of the puzzle.
Bitcoin's Wall Street capture and the cyberpunk spectrum
In terms of Bitcoin — Bitcoin is a bit harder to root for. Why? Because it's heavily connected to Wall Street nowadays. Literally, Saylor is the biggest buyer of Bitcoin. And then you have all these different cyberpunk projects like Zcash. Thinking about what could outperform BTC in the coming cycle — potentially something like Zcash. Let's see.
Hyperliquid — very similar situation. Also been bullish on Hyperliquid since ages, basically since the stone age. They had the bear trend into February and now they've reversed and they're going back up. This one is not cyberpunk, but it is NASDAQ on-chain, and it's a big narrative, especially now that the SEC is allowing stocks to be traded on-chain. Hyperliquid, Ondo, and other such projects connected to that space are the number one receivers of the bid.
Looking at Ondo — technically it went bull, but let's see if it can sustain. Looking at the volume, a few quite okay volume candles, but it's another one to keep an eye on.
Hyperliquid is pumping. And we're not even in the bull — we're in the bear. All of the other fugazi and vaporware — whether it is Avalanche, and of course I joke a bit here, is Avalanche vaporware? Probably not, but price-wise it's vaporware. Polkadot — what's happening to DOT? It's going to all-time low. These ones are just less likely to do well. They are going to pump in a bull market, but it's all about: will they outperform? Where is the fastest horse? And these guys — very unlikely to be running fast.
ADA — similar situation. It's testing the lows from 2022. It's crazy. Capital destruction, very, very bad. So these ones I'm not super excited about. But as the bull market comes, many opportunities are going to present themselves, and the fastest horses are the ones that show some life already now. That's normally how it's been in the past.
Daily bull flip performance data — the power of the Money Scanner
Looking at the overall market: Bitcoin plus 0.4%, ETH minus 0.2%. Basically flat today. Everything flat. But Zcash is up. Hyperliquid — look at the performance. Fantastic. That's why you've got to be early in bullish trends. Being in a daily bull trend nowadays is quite important if you trade crypto.
Looking at the daily performance of different coins: LAB up 2,000% since two months ago when it flipped bullish on the daily. 9NINES up 244% since three months ago, daily bullish. Centrifuge 82% since two months ago when daily flipped bullish. Humanity Protocol 77% since three weeks ago, daily flip bullish. Zcash — our beloved Zcash — 58% since a month ago when daily flipped bullish. And Hyperliquid: three months ago daily bullish, 109% — one of the biggest market caps in this group. Ondo at $779 million market cap, three months ago bullish, 109% pump. Fantastic.
So overall we have to be risk-off. But if you are trading alts, you need to be fast with the bull flips and the bear flips. If they flip bear, you're out — in this environment when Bitcoin is overall bearish, you're out.
On Hyperliquid — on the daily, $36 is where it goes bear. Keep an eye there. For now, up only. On the 12-hour also $36. On the 4-hour, $41 is where it goes bear, but 4-hour is lower time frame — sometimes means more fakeouts, more back and forth. Select the time frame that works best for you.
Tron going to all-time highs — outperforming Ethereum
Let's check Tron. Could you argue that Tron is vaporware, a copy of ETH? You can absolutely do that. The problem is that it pumps a lot. It outperforms ETH. We've been speaking about Tron throughout this whole bear because it's been very strong, but especially since the bull flip back in March. We've been saying it's going to go very close to all-time high. The weekly close all-time high is right there at $0.36. And Tron is going to all-time high before Ethereum.
There was actually a good video by Gainzy. It's a bit too harsh on Vitalik personally — I don't support the personal attack — but the overall sentiment is accurate.
Gainzy: "From inception — from the time that both Ethereum and whatever the original price of Ethereum was when Tron came out — it outperformed Ethereum. And Tron is literally a copy-paste of Ethereum."
I love Vitalik. I don't support the personal attack. Only Kumbaya, only great energy. Dear genius alien boy. But the overall message about Tron is correct.
Gainzy: "People are always going to defend him no matter what. Bro, you were outperformed by Ripple. You were outperformed by Cardano. You were outperformed by Tron. You were outperformed by all of this vapor, including vapor that copy-pasted your own codebase. And what are we supposed to say? Thank you? We're traders. We're here to make money, to better our lives. A lot of us don't understand much, but we understand enough to know that we trusted you and we lost money."
To be fair — ETH has been pumping since inception. It has outperformed a lot of stuff since inception. But it did not outperform XRP. It did not outperform Tron. By the way, Tron is no longer snake oil — Tron is the largest chain for stablecoins. It did not outperform ADA.
Gainzy: "Why should we thank you for it? It blows my mind. If he were on some kind of publicly traded company and he had actual shareholders, I think they would have forced him to step down. You can't get outperformed by somebody that copied and pasted your codebase. That's all Tron did."
Do you guys remember 2017? When Tron launched, when Justin Sun launched Tron, it was literally a copy-paste of the Ethereum white paper. People don't remember it now, but it was literally a copy-paste. They got called out for plagiarism, they still went with it, and they pumped like hell in 2017 despite plagiarizing everything. And then they kept pumping, outperforming ETH up until this day — where Tron today literally goes to a new weekly high.
Gainzy: "They outperformed the hell out of Ethereum. If you trusted Vitalik instead of trusting Justin Sun, you messed up."
That's true. And that hurts too many people, because they thought Justin Sun was some kind of scammer but it turns out he delivered more gains than the genius boy Vitalik.
Ethereum — protocol leads quitting, potential pico bottom?
Now, will ETH turn around? Many people are quitting. All protocol leads have quit ETH. We discussed it the other day — Barnabé Monnot, Tim Beiko, Alex Stokes, Trent, Von, EPS — all quitting, going to Solana, going to other places. And maybe it's a new beginning. In most things, when it's pico bear, pico bear, pico bear, it's actually kind of the bottom — when everyone is quitting. Let's see. I mean, that's what Pulse and Hex fans hope every day, that it's the pico bottom, but the bottom keeps bottoming. There's no floor in that. Let's see if ETH can actually get some pico bottom here.
Fear and greed, ETF flows, and preparing for the flush
Overall, fear and greed today is at 40 — neutral. People are not really fearful. They're just waiting to see what the hell is going to happen.
Personally, I would say it's time to prepare for the flash in the most bullish way possible — meaning that should we get a big fat flash with high volume, the likelihood of a bottom is very, very big. If it goes here to the 200-day Moving Averages, holy crap, it would be fantastic. It would be very, very nice.
There's no altcoin season except for Tron, Hyperliquid, Zcash, and these other small ones that you can only catch if you have the Money Scanner — you know when they flip in real time.
Looking at the altcoin performance: Venice up 300% since three months ago when it flipped bullish on the daily. Love it. And some memecoins in there too. But money is money. If money comes from Tron or from Justin Sun or from XRP — who cares? Fantastic.
The altcoin season is in these select coins that went bullish on the daily. To see what's bullish on the daily, you need to have the Money Scanner.
Crypto market cap: $2.57 trillion. One year ago we're going down. We're still up a bit since 2022, so that's good.
ETF outflows and inflows — over 30 days we're losing money very fast. Money is flowing out. About $1 billion out. Bitcoin: $900 million out. ETH: $107 million out. But total AUM can still go up while it's outflowing, because since the ETFs started in 2024 the price has increased. So you could have total outflows but the price increase still makes AUM bigger. That's actually very interesting.
AUM as a percentage of market cap — Bitcoin has 7% in ETFs currently. Since 2024 when they started it was 3.4%, and now it's doubled to 6.9%. So in two years we basically doubled the amount of coins in the BlackRock ETF and others.
Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, Saylor, and the cyberpunk argument
Bitcoin Treasury Strategy currently holds 843,000 Bitcoin. This is why, thinking about the cyberpunk angle, they do make Bitcoin less cyberpunk. Again, I love Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is going to do great. But in terms of overperforming and bringing crypto back to cyberpunk — because if I'm to guess, I think the next bull market is going to be about cyberpunk. Getting back to the cyberpunk.
I really love how Taiki discussed it the other day. He really put the nail on the head. We need to get back to cyberpunk. You cannot do more VC fugazi snake oil. No more VC snake oil. Potentially memes are going to be back because it's always fun — AI can create, AI can pump. So memes maybe are going to be back. But still, I think people want a story. People want greatness. People want decentralisation. People want privacy. And I think that's the only way to really pump Bitcoin to new super-duper highs — to get back to the cyberpunk.
What is the problem if we don't get back to the cyberpunk? We become Wall Street. When we become Wall Street, there is no excitement in this industry, because then Bitcoin is seen as like a little brother to the S&P 500. Bitcoin for them becomes like a memecoin — just a bit of fun in an otherwise very serious portfolio. If we get stuck in Wall Street, we are always the smaller, retarded brother to the real stuff that they have. That's why we need to create our own path back to the cyberpunk, where we outperform in ways they don't even understand. It's outside of the system.
So that's why — back to Zcash, back to cyberpunk. I would laugh if that would be the narrative of the next bull cycle. That would be fantastic. I would be the most bullish if that would happen.
Macro catalyst — US 30-year bond yields at 2007 highs, Fed forced to print
Also, remember: later this year, big pump. Now, likely dump. Later this year, big pump. Why? The printer will eventually have to turn on — bigly.
The US 30-year government bond yield is at the highest level since 2007, meaning they will have to go and buy it themselves. When the bond yield is high, it means there's not a lot of demand for 30-year government bonds. When there's no demand, when the price of a bond is dumping, the yield goes up. Think about the bond like a money machine — it prints a fixed dollar amount per year, but the percentage that represents of the price of the bond goes up if the price goes down.
The financial markets are selling US 30-year government bonds. Why? Because if you believe in inflation, if you're not really sure about the US government long-term, you don't want to hold their 30-year bond. You want to sell it and maybe buy short-term treasury or something else. When the yield goes up, it means there's a lot of uncertainty about the long-term prospects of the US and especially inflation. If people think that in 30 years you're going to have a lot of inflation, you demand a higher yield. Let's say you have 3% yield on a 30-year bond but you think inflation is going to be higher — it's a bad deal. So you sell it. And if the yield goes up in the future, maybe at 5% per year it makes sense to buy again.
Currently it is at 5.1%, which is historically quite high. This will force the Fed to print money and buy it themselves — literally go into the market and buy the 30-year bond themselves, so the yield is controlled and pushed down. Obviously it's hard to do because you don't want to ruin trust in the US. If you start printing to buy your own debt, it becomes even more shaky. They need to find a nice explanation for it. They're not going to call it QE — they're going to call it something else. But in one way or another, the Fed will have to create new money and bid the 30-year bond and the 10-year bond and other long-term bonds that the market is selling off right now. That is going to happen, likely later this year. And of course, when that happens, it's very nice for risk assets.
Iran ceasefire skepticism — oil chart as the source of truth
Iran is threatening to escalate. There is this peace deal in Iran — I don't trust it. Why? Because oil has not come down. I don't have to be a geopolitical genius. I just don't trust the news. I look at the chart as the source of truth.
I've been saying this Iran peace deal — don't take it too seriously. Likely it's fugazi. Why? There is no way oil stays this high if everything is really regulated, if they've found an understanding. They have not found any understanding. Oil is very, very high. It refuses to dump. In fact, it's the same price as it was in March and April. It could even go to all-time high. All-time high is at $127. So it's a clear picture that this Iran thing is not going to go anywhere. It's a big factor in short-term prices this month and the coming months.
EU skepticism toward USDT and USDC — German finance track record
The EU is saying they don't like USDT and USDC. Apparently some finance guy from Germany doesn't like them. When I see a finance guy from Germany, I have high mistrust. Why? Because German finance guys had another oopsie in 2022. In November 2022, right on the Bitcoin bottom — literally on the bottom, not around the bottom, on this exact candle — they said it's time to be super bearish. The 30th of November 2022 — that candle right there. They posted it on the bottom. So if you are from Germany and you're a finance guy, your trustworthiness as a nation when it comes to finance is very low. Also, let's not forget Weimar. You guys are also responsible for Weimar.
Now another German finance guy is coming out saying he doesn't trust USDC and USDT. Why? Because they put corporate treasury in gold and Bitcoin. I mean, maybe experts in the chat can correct me, but as far as I understand it, all the coins are backed, and what Tether does with their corporate treasury — which is their own money, not backing for the coins — is disconnected from the client money. Every financial institution that has client money has basically two buckets: one is the client money, and the other is their corporate profit, their corporate treasury. What they do with the corporate treasury is disconnected from the clients. I believe it's the same with USDT and USDC. But this guy is saying the EU is too good for US stablecoins. Let's see if the EU has anything else to offer, because they don't.
AI-driven layoffs accelerating — white-collar workers at risk
What did we say yesterday? We said if you are a white-collar worker, you have to be careful. Right now Meta is firing 8,000 global jobs. Yesterday we spoke about Kraken firing because of AI. The day before that, Coinbase firing. Each and every day, literally each and every day, we are seeing someone firing thousands and thousands of office workers.
Approximately 50,000 workers were laid off in 2026 as companies adopted a more AI-reliant business model. The latest one is Meta in Singapore — cutting 8,000 people to be more lean and lean heavily on AI. Emails were sent out at 4 a.m. to affected employees, and staff in the US and Europe were also expected to be notified that morning. Meta is one of several big tech firms cutting staff. Block laid off 4,000 workers in March. Coinbase and Crypto.com also recently cut a bunch of employees.
The problem is that the average student in the US is fighting against it — they don't really want to adapt. Here is Eric Schmidt telling students on some campus to prepare or be replaced, and instead of taking it as important information, they start booing him. From Arizona.
Eric Schmidt: "It will touch every profession, every classroom, every hospital, every laboratory, every person, and every relationship you have. I know what many of you are feeling about that. I can hear you. There is a fear."
There is no escape. That's the problem. These Arizona University students — I don't know what else they study, but if you study any kind of paper-pushing, accounting, or something like that, and you don't adapt, it's happening. It's happening very, very fast.
Eric Schmidt: "We do not know the precise contours of what this transformation will look like. Choose a diversity of perspectives. And if you'd let me make this point — if you don't care about science, that's okay, because AI is going to touch everything else as well."
He's doubling down. He's saying, "Yeah, you don't care about it — AI is still going to be touching everything."
Eric Schmidt: "Whatever path you choose, AI will become part of how work is done."
Will there be AI riots? Will we see an AI uprising from the plebs? Because you've got to take action. If you yourself become good at financial markets, you don't have to take action in this booing and workers uniting. Maybe it's going to be like in the industrial revolution where the workers unite and do something a bit too far — like they went a bit too far with communism. Maybe they're going to do something similar. It's very likely. And you'll probably see more socialism coming, probably more communism coming because of this. People are not happy. I understand.
And maybe that's why Zcash is going to be important. As communism makes a great comeback in the age of AI, maybe a bit of Zcash is key.
Speaker at another event: "It's a tool. Make it work for you."
Another speaker: "Change is exciting."
I love all of this. They think they're going to be speaking about the future and inspiring the new generation. And the new generation — they're booing. TikTok brain. Fully ruined. This lady is trying to inspire them, saying it's exciting, and what does she get?
Speaker: "Change can be daunting. The rise of artificial intelligence is the next industrial revolution."
These Gen Z's — they know they're doomed. They know they have a worthless degree. They got scammed by the boomers who told them to get into debt. Imagine being a student with maybe $100K in debt, which is crazy in the US, and then you realize you were scammed. It's a big scam. AI is here. They told you to do gender studies. What are you going to do?
I'm concerned. I'm very concerned. The only way out is to learn financial markets, because we're going to go full-time speculation. That's why, if you have not yet, go to Bullmania.com, watch the free trading content about mechanical rules.
Someone posted: "Scariest video I've watched this week. America's next generation actively booing the most transformative technology our species has ever seen. In China, grandmas line up to get OpenClaw installed. In America, supposedly our most educated people boo even the mention of AI. We have a massive marketing problem in this country and no one is doing anything to fix it. Tomorrow Meta is announcing 8K layoffs. They will blame it completely on AI. They won't blame it on their irresponsible hiring."
Yeah, but it's also AI. It's also AI. So all the companies are going to blame everything on AI. They have to fire you, they blame it on AI. But why become sad? If you are not needed — I mean, this is what it is. If you are an employee, the boss decides if you're hired or fired. What does your contract say? 30-day notice. That's it. It's a contract. I think maybe people need more realistic expectations about what employment is. It's not Kumbaya. The world is tough. Today you have a job, tomorrow — according to the contract — you have 30 days' notice. It is what it is.
I've worked a few years in corporate. I know the white collar. They need a bit of shock to the system. It's very inefficient — a lot of sitting there not doing too much, many middle managers, many meetings. We need a proper shock to the system, and I think it's good. AI provides the perfect excuse for that shock. Let it have AI do stuff. Fantastic.
People say, "Ivan, why are you so insensitive?" We discussed yesterday — I see you as friends. So I'm fully honest with you. You get my raw, unfiltered flow of consciousness. Because I see you guys as friends, the closest friends here, the collective in the chat. We're here every day. If we were acquaintances, I would fugazi you. I would butter you up. I would tell you, "Great, you have a good degree, you have a good job, you're a great person." Listen, I don't want to be that. I'm here to tell you exactly the way it is.
If you are white collar, be careful. College students will read that and learn to hate technology. Why hate technology? It's great. Because as a student you can also do business instead of dealing with people — hiring and firing and dealing with everyone. Just adapt. They'll protest outside data centers. "Save our water. No more data centers." Get out of here.
This is the problem. We're going to see a swing in politics against tech — bigly. Swinging politics against tech, towards redistribution. Which again points towards Zcash and privacy. At least America is not losing to China. This could be a warning sign to all frontier labs and CEOs — messaging matters. And if your messaging doesn't change, the West is cooked.
How should we change messaging? I don't know. I think we should say: man up. People are too soft. You think in China they cry because they got laid off? You fire a Chinese worker — good, bam, they find a new job, they go somewhere, they figure themselves out. But in the West you cannot tell them they're fired because of AI because they're too sensitive. We need to have them understand that they are not super efficient and AI is more efficient. Maybe it's going to be a bit of a transition. It's super fascinating. And learn mechanical rules.
Bull Mania gains report — AMD, Micron, Rocket Lab performance
A bit of a summary of our performance in TradFi. Jason from our team has summarized what we've been doing inside of Bull Mania.
Jason: "Good morning. I'm Jason, and this is the Bull Mania gains report for April and May. We've been doing quite well in the recent months. AMD, for example — we did 72% in one month and six days, as we see in the Bull Mania scanner. It's been 72% since the bullish flip. We can also see it here in the chart — since the flip here to the current price, 72–73% in that range. We've been mentioning it multiple times in our private live stream with Ivan. At that time the AMD price was at about $278. Again on our daily market analysis on 23rd of April, mentioned again at $303. Profit. Live stream on 24th April, we mention it again."
And so on and so on. So let's go to Q&A. This is just a demo of what's happening inside Bull Mania — we also guide you by the hand. You get the mechanical rules, you get the system, and then Jason does daily updates with whatever is the biggest opportunity. Last month it has been all of these US stocks. Fantastic. He does daily updates on the market. We do weekly streams together. We have nice returns in the community. Very, very nice.
Q&A — Ondo, Hyperliquid levels, and market questions
Ivan: On Ondo — it looks okay, technically bullish on the weekly, but not really pumping. Let's check it together. Ondo is like this — personally I would just wait for it to go above the resistance. The risk right now is just too big. It doesn't have the same strength as Hyperliquid or Zcash, where there is constant bidding. But should it go above the resistance, there's a very good chance it continues up. Now that we have more information — that it showed weakness and got rejected — I would actually wait a bit until we're above that level. Because sometimes you can have a fakeout. To be sure, I would just wait for it to go above again.
There is talk that Ondo may allow profit sharing. Potentially it's going to help. But it's always impossible to know — sometimes coins have a rev share and they don't pump. Sometimes they have no rev share and they pump. Hyperliquid is a good example of a coin with rev share that pumps. And then you have coins with revenue share that don't pump. They have revenue share and they don't pump — in fact they also turned off most of the restaking and it didn't help the pump.