Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's support levels and broader market conditions
Ivan on Tech presents a solo market analysis stream covering Bitcoin's price action, macro conditions, and various crypto news items.
Summary
Ivan (Ivan on Tech) delivers a live stream analysis during a period of Bitcoin volatility, with BTC trading around $77,000. He argues that Bitcoin remains in a bull trend and that the most probable outcome is continuation to the upside, drawing parallels to the 2023 cycle where Bitcoin briefly dipped below key levels before rallying strongly. He addresses macro concerns including rising energy prices, higher-than-expected PPI data, and bond market stress, arguing that rate hikes have historically not derailed Bitcoin bull markets. The stream also covers Hunter Biden's failed memecoin launch, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's bullish $400,000 Bitcoin price target for 2030, and a discussion of older DeFi coins with active buyback mechanisms as a potential opportunity this cycle.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Price Action and Bull Trend Context
Ivan: Bitcoin is going down to 77, and many people are asking: what's going to happen? Will we see a B pattern? Will we see a Burj Khalifa pattern all the way down into the sixties?
Here is where it's very important to understand that we are in a bull trend. Anything can happen. Even in a bull trend, the probabilities are the highest for continuation to the upside. But just like in 2023 — you remember that we went into bull trend and then actually what happened? We went up a bit and then we went below the flip level. Below the flip level.
So everyone needs to sit tight in the boat. We can sit tight in the boat. Why? Because we manage risk. If Bitcoin goes to zero, it's not going to be a surprise for us, because as you can see, there is a bear trend at approximately 60K. But this is not the time to be bearish or concerned or worried in any way. Why? Because we had a year of the bear. The year of the bear is gone. The bear is nowhere to be seen. Now we have the year of the bull starting right now. Next year is going to be the year of the bull. And 2028 is also likely going to be the year of the bull.
Meanwhile, you may have volatility. You may have a bit of up, a bit of down — exactly like in 2023, a bit of up, a bit of down. Here you see it even went to what is it, like 19K — it went bull trend and then boom, and then Valhalla.
As you know in markets, unfortunately, there is never a time where you are just 100% certain of anything. There's never such a time. So trying to reach that feeling, that emotion, that you're just sitting in your rocking chair on the veranda and you are 100% certain that something's going to happen with your money — it's never like that. It's not like that in the bull, because in the bull everyone is always nervous. Is it going to end? Is it going to end? Is it going to be alt season or not alt season? Will my coin come back? And in the bear, the same thing. People refused the bear for the longest time. In October we said this is a bear. People said, "Oh no, no bear, no bear, no bear." They refuse the bear. Then they refuse the bull.
So for the average person, calmness is never really a reality. But even if you're an experienced person, you know that certainty is not possible. It's not even a reality. But you could get calmness if you know what you're doing. You manage risk, you know mechanical rules, et cetera. And why can you get calmness even when there is uncertainty? Because markets are inherently uncertain. And because you know that no matter what happens, you're good. You're positioned. You have risk management.
Should Bitcoin go back to the 40s — if you have mechanical rules and risk management, it's okay. Now is not even the time to speak too much about that, but it's possible. It could happen. It's unlikely. It could happen. The most likely scenario is a consolidation to the upside here as we resolve this sideways chop. Very, very, very important. As a result, the sideways chop will continue to the upside.
And by the way, this is a mindset to have not only in markets but in life in general. Some people have told me this mindset of trading actually applies to life in general. There is basically no certainty of anything. But how can we as humans still have calmness, serenity? How can we still be zen and make the best possible moves in any situation? At the end of the day, it's more philosophical. The ancient wisdom really comes through when you learn about trading properly. We could speak about this for hours.
But all in all, we are in a bull trend. In a bull trend, you're what? You're bullish. In a bear trend, you're what? You're bearish. Keep it simple. Bull trend — bullish. Bear trend — bearish. That's it.
But of course you cannot keep it simple, especially if you don't have proper education. Your own brain is going to tell you things. You're going to watch some other influencer. Most people mess up without proper education.
For example, I sometimes see people who want to join Bulmania. They jump on a call with us and I can see they really think in certainties. They say, "Oh no, now Bitcoin is going to go to 100K and this and this and this." But what if it doesn't? There is a small possibility, a risk, that it doesn't. What do you do then? And then it's quiet. They don't know. Or vice versa — they still think we're going to go lower. And what if we go up? What's going to happen? You need to be prepared for anything.
Macro Conditions: Energy, Bonds, and Rate Hike Fears
There is a lot of fear in the stock market. The stock market is fearful but holding up quite okay for now, at least. Why is the stock market a bit fearful now? Because there is a problem with energy prices. Energy prices are very, very high. Diesel, for example, hits an all-time high. Brent is going up. There is a problem with the Houthis, with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have some issue. There is a conflict in the Middle East, like always. There's always something there. So now you have the increase in oil prices.
That's number one. Number two, you have the PPI coming out and PPI being higher than expected. The market expected a bit lower. PPI now is higher. So inflation is a bit higher than expected. Based on this, the Treasury yields have gone up. This basically means that the demand for US Treasuries is going down. When the demand is going down, the yield is going up. So this is a signal that the financial markets are not trusting the US as much. They're afraid of hyperinflation.
When you buy US debt, you get paid in dollars. So if you're afraid of inflation, you want a higher yield. You want the bonds to have a high yield so that in case there's inflation, you will be compensated. Imagine you lend money to the US and you get 5% per year, but the inflation is 20% per year — it doesn't matter that you get 5%. So you would demand a higher yield. This is very important: as inflation fears increase, the yields in the bond markets also increase.
Now some people are saying they should use Sydney Sweeney to promote US Treasuries — safe, secure. Because the best investments aren't just smart, they're timeless. Get into bond stability. Looks good on you. Risk? I'm not into it. Get the Treasuries. Let's see, guys. All in all, they need to promote these bonds like there's no tomorrow. Bessent is trying to promote. He's saying he knows the Treasuries are a good deal because he's going to pump them. But for now, they're not really pumping.
And of course, the fears are that the Fed will hike interest rates. This is the fear, and the fear is pressing down the stock market. But to be fair, the stock market is not dumping a lot. It's just 1% here and there. So whatever the fear, it's not massive.
And as you know, for crypto, we don't even care about the interest rates at this stage, because we have gone through the bear. Like I showed you yesterday, even if interest rates go up, it does not matter. Look here in the last bull market — as soon as we went into bull trend, Bitcoin continued up, even though the interest rates actually increased. Right after the bull flip in 2023, you did have a rate hike just literally two weeks later, and then another rate hike a few weeks later, and then another, and then another. So in the span of literally about six months, there were four rate hikes in the last bull market, and it was still a bull market. We still went very, very high. The altcoins still mooned. Pepe and the dog with hat were still created even though the rates went up.
So as you can see, for us currently, after a bear, it's not a big problem with the rates. And in fact, as you can see, they started to decrease rates and we dumped. Why? Because the price action is disconnected from the rates in the short term, especially when you have a big fat bull market and then the demand disappears for many different reasons. One reason is just that everyone who wanted to buy already bought. Trump already pumped us. So the market psychology and the market dynamics are way more important than external factors like the interest rate.
Of course, interest rates long-term are good if they go down, but in terms of this year, this quarter, the biggest impact is the balance of supply and demand. And if you've had a year of down, the balance is such that everyone who wanted to sell already sold. There's not many people left to sell. This means that the balance is more that you have people buying Bitcoin, that most people are sidelined. That's the most important thing, and that's why prices are likely to go up in my opinion. That's how I see it. That's why I'm acting.
I'm quite relaxed here. Not because it's 100% certain — in fact, I'm humble. I'm telling you I actually don't know what's going to happen. I just tell you what I do. Maybe we'll go down. If we go down, stop loss, bear trend, we're out. We're protected to the downside. We have very limited downside but we have infinite upside. And the bet is so nice here that I'm bullish. I'm bullish like hell, guys. But bullish like hell does not mean that it's a certain scene. And that's the reason I can be calm — because we have a plan for anything. Whatever happens, we're going to be okay. We're going to make money. Whatever the market does, we prioritize money making.
Fed Liquidity and Bond Market Intervention
The Fed is going to inject two billion into the market tomorrow. They're going to inject liquidity, and liquidity is going to go somewhere. It's going to go into risk assets eventually. They're going to go into bonds first. They really have to get it under control. The bond market now is not under control. They need to get the bond market under control — inject liquidity, bid up the bonds. Very important. So I think at the end of the day, they're going to bid them up. Liquidity is going to be deployed.
Brian Armstrong Calls the Bottom
Now, Brian Armstrong — he's saying we have bottomed, and that's fantastic. Let's listen to this.
Interviewer: Bitcoin is trading just below the $80,000 handle. Do you still believe that we could see Bitcoin at $400,000 by the year 2030? And what would it take to get there?
Brian Armstrong: The short answer is yes. I do think that's a reasonable target by 2030. And if you follow crypto, you know it typically will go through these four-year-ish cycles. There'll be a run-up, some euphoria, there'll be a down period. Most of the down periods last about a year, and we've actually just come across the one-year mark for this down period. And so I personally believe that the bottom is in on Bitcoin in this most recent cycle. We've already seen it come up from 60K or so. And a lot of people will be watching this clarity act, and if it fails, the subsequent rulemaking that comes out after that. And then there's another Bitcoin halving event that's about a year and a half out, and we tend to see run-ups in advance of that. So I think the next year or two is going to be good for Bitcoin, and we'll see what happens.
Ivan: Yes, guys, it's going to be — I agree. I fully agree. And by the way, some people will be bullish just for clicks. I'm not bullish for clicks, man. I was bearish when everyone was bullish in October. I just tell you what I do. I'm not going to blow smoke up your ass telling you, "Oh, be bullish, be bullish," in a freaking bear market. In October, I told you we're going to go down. In May, people told you, "Oh, be bullish, be bullish." They milk you for engagement because they know your brain wants bullish. We're not milking you. We are here telling you straight up — when it's bullish, it's bullish; when it's bearish, it's bearish. Even if you don't want to hear it, I still tell you bearish. But now it's bullish. Maybe people don't want to hear that. They're like, "I thought we were going to go lower." Not in bull trend, man. Not in bull trend.
Hunter Biden's Memecoin Disaster
Now, our dear Hunter. We told you to be careful with Hunter. He's going to rugpull. He's saying he is responsible now. Why is he in a car? Why does he look broke? He doesn't instill confidence in me, guys. But let's listen.
Hunter Biden: Hey everyone, Hunter here. It has been a long couple of days, but I'm used to long days. I want to make one thing clear — this is my token. I've been working on this thing for six months straight.
Ivan: What did you do for six months straight to launch a coin? Maybe he got scammed. Sometimes when you are not a professional in a field and you want to get help with something in that field, you could get scammed by service providers that over-complicate the process. Maybe they told him it's a six-month process to launch a coin. Meanwhile, you literally do it in one minute on Pump.fun. What did he do for six months? Crazy.
Hunter Biden: "Gone in deep in terms of cryptocurrency and understanding exactly what I was getting into. And what I was getting into was trying to do something markedly different than what has been offered up in the past two years — something that actually could help build community and do something that's worthwhile. And to that end, that's why we have a 20% airdrop to both my Substack subscribers, but also to people that lost money on the Trump token, and airdrops to come in the future. And not only that — we also built into it a charity component that's really, really important to me, that ultimately will go to charities related to recovery."
Ivan: He's the classic, man. He's the classic. What's the idea? Oh, let's bolt on the charity. Yeah, 1% is going to go to charity. Let's bolt it on so our token looks good. What is this?
Hunter Biden: "And then the first-ever prediction market embedded into a coin. I was intimately involved in every single discussion, every single step of the way in creating the tokenomics, in creating the way in which the coin would be presented. And you know what, at the end of the day, it's my responsibility. And there was a screw-up."
Ivan: Yeah, guys, listen. It's excuse after excuse. But at the end of the day, there is a chart you can look at. It's way better to look at the chart now than to have formed in at the top. Some poor bastard bought here. Some poor bastard also bought up here at $4. It's now 40 cents. So if you think Hunter is going to take the coin back to Valhalla, look at the hourly chart. The all-time high is like $4. I don't know what to tell you. Just don't buy new launches. I think it's a bad deal for most people. See how it launches, see how it goes. Now we have a trend, we have something to work with. Maybe he does return it. Maybe he will redeem himself. To be fair, he doesn't look too promising. He's in the car, it's so dark. I don't know, man.
Hunter Biden: "You know what, at the end of the day, it's my responsibility. And there was a screw-up. The screw-up occurred in the first 30 seconds of launching the coin, in which the market maker for some unknown reason only put in $5,000 of liquidity, and the demand was through the roof. And what happened was the coin went up to $2.39 and then it went to $316 a token — $316 billion market cap, larger than the market cap of goddamn BlackRock. And they got it under control, but not before the damage was done in terms of making it look like not just a Christmas tree — it looked like Mount Everest. I am in this to the end."
Ivan: What kind of service provider did he use for this coin? Not only did he get scammed on the timeline — they probably billed him for six months of hard work from 100 people — they also messed up the launch. You hire someone, and they say, "Oops, we just accidentally had no liquidity, so all of the plebs formed in and $300 got dumped on their ass. It was all accidental. We don't know how it happened. Poor market maker. We misunderstood."
He's swimming with sharks. This guy is in crypto. He said, "I know what I'm getting into." Do you really know, Hunter? Because you are swimming with sharks. They are sharks. Now, I don't doubt that ideally Hunter wanted to have a nice launch. Probably it's not in his interest that the launch went this way. But man, you get into crypto — the most PVP, dog-eat-dog industry on earth — and you hire people that lie to you and also mess up your launch. If you don't sue them, I don't know what's going to happen.
Hunter Biden: "100%. And I promise you we're going to make it right. And we're working our asses off to make certain that we can do that. So stay tuned for more information. But I just want everybody to know this isn't some celebrity token where I get on Twitter and say, 'Oh, I didn't know about it.'"
Ivan: Okay. Maybe that's correct. But Hunter, listen to the wisdom here. What Hunter needs to do — what I would do — is actually create a new coin. Erase the chart. Because that chart, especially if it went to like $300 or something, is going to haunt you forever. Everyone's going to see that it's down 99.999%. Let's actually see on CoinGecko what the all-time high price was. Because if the launch got messed up, ideally you want to erase the chart and make a new chart. You cannot live with that chart.
It's like ICP, guys. No one cares about ICP because ICP also launched — apparently the market maker messed up, they accused FTX — and ever since, oh yeah. He needs to do a new coin. I would actually not continue on this because it's down so much. On CoinGecko, they captured this price of $200. He cannot work with this. It's impossible. So anyone who's ever going to open this coin is going to look at the chart, see it went from $200 to below $1, and it's going to look very bad.
Here I would just do a new coin — new name, new chart. Do the chart properly. When you migrate to a new ticker, it's not the same issue with the volatility and everything. It's been done many times before. Otherwise, it's going to be like ICP — no one cares, and you know in general they have the same issue. Anyone that looks at ICP sees it went from $700 to $2. It looks like a scam. It looks like a rugpull. Now, it is a serious project. They have the curse. They have the curse of the bad launch. They're down 99.6%. They will never go to $700 because that was an impossible price created because of low liquidity. Some poor bastard bought at that price, just like some poor bastard bought at $200 for Hunter's coin.
So yeah, Hunter, you need help. You need a lot of help.
Uniswap's CCA as a Solution for Celebrity Token Launches
Any famous person who wants to do a memecoin without disastrous results should use Uniswap's CCA. That's what the founder of Uniswap is saying. Let's see how this works.
CCA is Uniswap's Continuous Clearing Auction — a fair launch auction mechanism designed specifically so celebrity or high-profile meme coins do not get instantly destroyed by bots and snipers, the way classic bonding curve or instant pool launches do.
How it works: buyers submit bids over a set window, often multi-hour. Demand builds gradually instead of everyone rushing block one. A clearing price is found — the auction continuously finds the price the market is actually willing to pay, the real clearing level. So instead of what Hunter did — trying to set a launch price and add liquidity at the same time, trying to match supply and demand when you don't really know what the supply and demand is — with the Uniswap mechanism, according to Hayden, you have a safer way to find the balance before you launch.
Low-ball or runaway bids get handled by clearing logic rather than letting the first bot settle. This is also very important because snipers rely on being first. When there's no liquidity and no one is really participating, you don't have that problem. Deep liquidity is seeded at that exact price once the clearing price is set. A substantial Uniswap pool is created and funded right away. Sniping resistance is built in because price is discovered first, and liquidity is already deep when the pool goes live. The classic dark forest attack is heavily reduced.
So if you are interested, go to my Twitter. I will tweet the explanation of Uniswap CCA so you can check it.
Strategy (MSTR) Surpasses JPMorgan in Trading Volume
Bitcoin treasury company Strategy surpasses financial giant JPMorgan in trading volume. That's quite interesting. If we look at MSTR — as you know, in a bull market we are bullish MSTR, in a bear market we're bearish. Now it's bull market, we're bullish. Strategy did enter bull trend, also dipped down a bit just like Bitcoin dipped down a bit, but still it's a new bull trend. Bitcoin is also in a bull trend. So good, good, good. I think it's good.
Old DeFi Coins with Buybacks: The Elio Trades Thesis
Now, look here. Elio Trades has dropped what he calls his most controversial take. He's saying: "My single most controversial take of this cycle is that old coins will make you richer than new ones this cycle. Most of the reason people hate VC coins is that there were years of token overhang, so they never pumped. Well, kids, those vesting schedules are now done."
So I think he's speaking about his own coin, guys — Super. He needs to be careful not to shill it too much. But he's probably also signaling for the Super holders. I can imagine that because he is the creator of the coin, this is more of a message about his coin than a general instruction to go out and buy, I don't know, Iota or something.
He continues: "They pivot to token buybacks and burns." And then he lists: Uniswap protocol fees, token jar — there you go. Compound automated buybacks. Raydium. Yeah. True, true.
Now, Raydium — is it really that old? It's from 2022. Yeah. And Maker — now rebranded to Sky. In my brain it's still Maker, but they rebranded. Interesting.
And here's an interesting industry stat: crypto projects have done $640 million in token buybacks this year alone. Hyperliquid and Pump.fun obviously everyone knows already. Hyperliquid — 99% of fees are routed to Hype buybacks. 50% of Launchpad revenue goes towards buying back Pump. The difference is that Hype is a stronger mechanism.
Let me check Raydium's daily buyback. And you see — Bulmania AI. I quickly open the coin, I quickly open the chart, I quickly see the money line. Ah man, this workflow — that's it. You understand what I mean when I say Bulmania is a gift to humanity. You learn the rules and you see how easy it is to use. AI — boom, open tweet, boom, open chart, boom, see money line, it's bullish. Boom, boom, boom, boom. This thesis from Elio is working out as you can see in this DeFi stuff. So he's correct. He's very correct.
Uniswap — same story, bull trend. Bam. Bam. Bam. Nice. Love it.
Compound — not really bullish yet. Could be an interesting thing when it goes bull. Could be an interesting trade.
Hype — the monster. Hype is the monster.
Orca — also bullish but a bit lower, so you get an even better entry. These coins in the bull market, they're going to fly and fly and fly.
Jupiter — let's see. Swissborg — not much yet, but once this thing gets going, once it gets going.
So the filter is: fully or nearly fully circulating. And there you have Uniswap, Compound, and Raydium.
What about Super? Does it have buybacks? Short answer — no. Super is not in the same old-coin-with-live-buybacks bucket compared to those. It does not show an active buyback. But still true that there are no VCs left. And I can imagine that everyone who wanted to dump Super already dumped it. So as soon as it goes bull trend, it's likely going to be very nice. But bull trend first — then we talk. Bull trend first, then we talk.
Q&A Session
On copy trading: Copy trading is inferior. It's an inferior strategy to seeing what's happening in the chart, seeing what's flipping bullish, et cetera. Copy trading — listen, if copy trading would work, everyone would be rich. Instead, you need mechanical rules. We're about mechanical rules, not copy trading. The reason it doesn't work for most people is because they don't understand what they're doing. You copy trade someone — you don't know what other positions he has, you don't know his total allocation, et cetera. For most people, copy trading is more or less a trap if you do it incorrectly.
Maybe there is a way to apply what we teach in Bulmania — the mechanical rules and strategies — where you can see a coin opportunity and still apply the same rules with the exit and everything. So you have your own control of the trade. That could work. That could be interesting. But if you just copy trade and you don't have control of the trade — you don't understand the thesis, the take profit, the exit — you don't understand anything. Just like Hunter Biden has a degree in history and doesn't understand too much, the same is with you if you just copy trade.
If you get a kid, don't tell them to go liberal arts. They need to go STEM. Then if they want art, you can do art in your free time. Anyone can do art in free time.
What would make sense is to add smart wallet data from something like the FOMO app into Bulmania AI. That's probably the solution. Because the problem is that when you have, let's say, 20 coins that feel bullish at the same time, you need to choose a few — you cannot be in all of them. That's where Bulmania AI comes in. You ask it which one has the most momentum on socials, where is the biggest community. And imagine if you could also see the smart wallets — where the most smart wallets are. That would be something. But at the same time, with copy trading and smart wallets, it only works for on-chain coins. And most coins people trade are like ADA, XRP, Zcash, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin. So this feature would be more for a subset of users who want to trade on-chain coins. But yeah, good stuff. I'll think about that.
On Polygon: I believe it flipped bullish the other day. Yeah — flipped bullish but retraced a bit. So overall bullish. But if you haven't entered, I wouldn't enter until it goes above the yellow line. If you enter, then you have a stop loss, you have mechanical rules. Overall bullish, so positive. But if you're not in Polygon now, I would actually wait for it to go above the breakout level.
On asking family members to buy crypto: Never ask anyone in your family to do anything with crypto because they are going to mess up and blame you. What you should tell them is to join Bulmania first so they understand what's happening. Otherwise, how are you going to tell someone to do anything with their money? They're going to lose money, they're going to blame you. And then they're going to think, "Man, I could have gone on vacation. I lost 5K. I could have gone on vacation." And how are you going to explain to them that it was good risk-reward? You're going to tell your grandpa, "Yeah, it was good risk-reward, it still went down and you didn't have a stop-loss." So you didn't manage risk, grandpa. Is your grandpa going to manage risk? No.
On rate hike fears: If CPI comes in hot and a rate hike is likely — see, I can tell you haven't watched the stream. I literally told you earlier in the stream about rate hikes. Go back and watch. In Bulmania, I have massive patience, but sometimes people ask questions in Discord and I can see, man, you haven't watched the education yet. You're still uneducated. Take the education and then come back.
Closing Summary
Guys, that's it. To summarize: we have energy problems — increase in fuel price, diesel, everything. Potentially a problem with rate hikes for the stock market. We don't care about the rate hikes — I told you we don't care about them. The bottom is likely in. We likely go up from here. We have Armstrong being bullish. The Clarity Act is back and forth but likely going to pass soon. Bullish. We're already bullish. Strategy is bullish. And then bonds — another important thing. Bonds are not doing that well, so the Fed will have to step in. The government will have to step in.
That's basically what's happened during the last 24 hours. Nothing happened today in terms of big moves. It's sideways. I'm just here to remind everyone to follow the plan. Stick to the plan. There is volatility. What's going to happen? You should have a plan for everything. In Bulmania, we teach all the time — what's your plan, what's your exit. I'm very calm. How can we be so calm when it's volatile? Because if it goes down, we have a plan. If it moves, we have a plan. The probability is more towards the moon. But it could go down — it could go down, like always. But the probability is higher for a big fat Valhalla. And that's exactly why we're here, guys.