Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's Bull Market Support Band rejection and the "Sell in May and Go Away" seasonal pattern
Ivan on Tech presents a solo Bitcoin market analysis video.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a bearish case for Bitcoin heading into May, arguing that the recent 32% relief rally from the lows is entirely consistent with prior bear market bounces and does not signal a trend reversal. He explains that Bitcoin has been rejected by the Bull Market Support Band and that the Money Line remains far above price at around $91K, indicating the bear trend is intact. Drawing on historical data from the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, Ivan argues that May is historically one of the most destructive months in bear market cycles, with losses of 60–66% recorded from the start of May to the eventual bear market bottom in previous cycles. He states that he has been positioned risk-off since October 8th and has no intention of changing that stance until Bitcoin closes convincingly above the Bull Market Support Band and the Money Line turns bullish.
Ivan also highlights the US stock market as the current source of returns, referencing large percentage gains in names such as Kodak, Real Mada, AON, Caterpillar, and Cisco. He presents Caterpillar and Cisco as specific actionable long setups — both in new bull trends and in price discovery — emphasising the use of stop-losses and the risk-reward logic of buying at all-time highs with no overhead resistance. He briefly discusses altcoin setups, including Arbitrum (with a potential ~78% move to prior highs), while cautioning that altcoins remain in deep bear trends and are vulnerable to a sharp reversal if Bitcoin sells off in May.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's Bull Market Support Band Rejection and the Bear Case
Ivan on Tech: This rejection right here by the Bull Market Support Band could get brutal as we are exiting April and entering May, because May in bear markets is not a joke. It's not a joke. In fact, that's where the biggest losses are happening. So listen carefully. Let me explain.
As you know on this channel, we made fortunes in this bear market. Why? Because we went risk-off on October 8th and we have been risk-off ever since. Ever since October 8th. And this is very important for us because at the end of the day we want to preserve capital, we want to compound it, and we want to enter when the next bull market starts. We don't want to enter while everything is collapsing. We don't want to hold altcoins down 80–90% like unfortunately many people do in this market. And that's exactly why we don't really have any rush to jump back into the market. We don't feel any FOMO. We don't have any reason to hurry here.
Because at the end of the day, Bitcoin will not go to a million dollars without us being in a bull trend — meaning above the Bull Market Support Band and above the Money Line, just like we entered back in January 2023 when the Money Line went bullish right here and we were above the Bull Market Support Band. We will do the same this cycle. There is no rush, because as long as we can compound capital, as long as we can be in this market and ride the meat of the wave to the upside and avoid the downside, we'll be in a very fantastic position where our capital compounds from cycle to cycle. We don't round trip. We never want to round trip.
When you round trip within a cycle, you basically destroy your wealth because you cannot compound. The next cycle does not work for you — it works against you. It's crazy, because most people who have been in this space, let's say five years, even ten years, many of them have not made any money. They're not financially independent. They're not free. They're still working 9 to 5. Why? Because they never reached escape velocity. They never got to a position where they are free based on capital compounding cycle after cycle after cycle. So that's very, very important. You want your capital to compound.
And that's exactly the reason why we don't really care about the exact bottom or exact top. We care about having a fantastic risk-reward entry where we enter and ideally it is up-only, without any capital destruction — where it's a fakeout, or where you get in too early. Many people got in right here and then we lost another 37% from that peak. Many people in the last bear market got in right here and then lost another approximately 70%. So getting in too early while we're still in a bear trend on the Money Line, while we're still bearish when it comes to the Bull Market Support Band and we're using it as resistance — that is very, very, very dangerous.
Reviewing the Last Four Weeks of Price Action
So let's review what happened here during the last four weeks. We did see a nice pump for bulls. Bulls did push the Bitcoin price up from $65K all the way to almost $80K. And if we measure from this bottom to this peak, this relief rally is 32%. So it moved Bitcoin 32%.
The question is: is this normal? Can you move 32% while still being in the bear market, while still being overall bearish? And the answer is yes, of course. And if you've been watching this channel, I think we covered it maybe two weeks ago — where if you measure this rally right here from this bottom to this peak, it was 40%. And then after pumping 40%, it dropped another approximately 70%. So pumping 40% would be totally normal, very much in line with previous cycles, and we didn't even do that. We pumped approximately 30%. So this pump, in terms of the move, is very standard as a relief rally within a bear market. That's number one.
Number two, we did not really get into a higher-high structure. As you can see here, we have a high, we have a lower high, we have a lower high. And for us to go into a bull trend, we need of course to do a higher high. We need to have something that closes like this and starts going up. And we currently don't have that.
Also, looking at the Bull Market Support Band, it is a resistance area within a bear market. Resistance here. Currently we're struggling with it. And sometimes we do close above it for a few days, for a few weeks even. Here we closed three weeks or so above it — one week here, then a second week, and then we traded during the third week and then closed below the Bull Market Support Band. That's something to keep an eye on as well.
When you look at how big this pump is and you compare it to previous bear market pumps, one way to look at it is to see if we really get above the Bull Market Support Band with confidence or not. And we haven't really done that. In fact, it seems that we're getting rejected by the Bull Market Support Band as we're speaking right now.
The Money Line Remains Decisively Bearish
And then of course the Money Line is heavily, heavily bearish. It's calling the bluff here. It's calling the bluff because it is staying at $91K. It's not really even close to flipping bullish. So the Money Line here is saying decisively that this volatility right here is not something that should trigger a bullish reversal in our minds, and should not trigger some kind of bullish positioning in our portfolios.
Now, as you know, this thing will come down the more time passes and the more price gets into the bear market — just like here back in 2023. You see that the Money Line was actually very close to the price and it was quite easy to flip bullish, because here the Money Line basically saw that the conditions are such that it's time for the bull. It is time for the bull. While now the Money Line is still very, very high. It's saying that whatever volatility you have here, don't worry too much — likely we will continue down.
"Sell in May and Go Away" — Historical Bear Market Data
And of course you know the saying: sell in May and go away. Now, this saying doesn't really work in bull markets. In bull markets we pump anyway. Whether it's sell in May or not, it pumps anyway. But in bear markets, May literally can destroy your portfolio — or whatever you have left of it — if altcoins are already down a lot. But in May they still go down even further.
Look here. May in 2022 started right here. This was the first week of May, and from the start to the finish — from the start of May to the finish of the bear market — we went down 60%. This was 2022. If we go back one bear market previous, you see here that May started somewhere within this week, and we went down approximately 66% from the beginning of May till the end of the bear market.
So this is why you have another variable here, which is of course the seasonality of May, which is normally in bear markets very, very, very bad.
And of course some people are asking: Ivan, are you some kind of astrologist, or why do you care about seasonality? Well, the thing is, in Bitcoin, seasonality is very, very strong — especially when it is supported by price action. I'm not relying on seasonality only as the one and only number one criteria. But when it is supported by price action — for example, being in a bear trend or being in a bull trend, being rejected by a significant level or pumping above a significant level — then of course this analysis can really help you see the picture clearly.
Four-Year Cycle Analysis and Midterm Year Patterns
So as you can see, we top out each cycle approximately the same number of days from the previous low. As you can see, this white cycle — which is the recent one — the purple one, and the orange one, they all peak out approximately the same number of days. This is what some people call the four-year cycle. And then we bottom out approximately 1,400-ish days from the peak. And now we are at 1,250 days. So just based on this, you also see that normally we do see an acceleration down here in May in different cycles towards the end of the cycle.
And also, if you look at the Bitcoin midterm years, this is where we normally see a bit of acceleration to the downside, and we basically flash down towards the end of the year. We flash down a bit more here, and we're not reaching the bottom yet. Some people say that this was the bottom right here on day 36 of the midterm year — likely not, based on all of this. Likely not. And it's just another reason for us to be risk-off and have it as part of our overall calculation and world model.
Current Positioning and the Adaptation Plan
So those are the reasons why I'm currently positioned risk-off. I've been risk-off since October. I have not changed my mind since October. Since October 8th, we're risk-off. We're preserving capital. Meanwhile, as you know, most altcoins dropped 80 to 90%. Bitcoin has dropped 50%, now recovered a bit. And all in all, the environment has been very, very bad for everyone involved in crypto. You have to be risk-off when the trend is bearish.
Meanwhile, stocks have been pumping. Many, many stocks have been doing very, very well — whether it is AMD, whether it is Intel. We've been speaking about how stocks are the assets which are generating returns right now. If you look at the market as a whole, you don't have to be in only crypto. Stocks are where most gains have been during the last months. Maybe it's going to change in the future — who knows? Sometimes crypto has the most gains. But we just need to make money no matter what.
We never want to be cornered. We never want to be in a position where we feel that something has to work out for our portfolio to grow. In our situation here, we always scope: should Bitcoin start pumping and start really closing above the Bull Market Support Band, we would be accumulating slowly here and then accumulating very fast in case we go bullish on the Money Line. So we have a scenario where we actually go bullish — where the main scenario that is bearish for us right now does not play out — and we adapt. We're never cornered. Never ever cornered. Because the last thing you want to be is fully all-in on one scenario and then the market goes against you and you don't know what to do and you just struggle and have pain. Never like this.
Short-Term Trading Setups — Bitcoin
Now let me show you some trading setups for the short term. Looking at Bitcoin, you do have quite a nice trade right here from this breakout area all the way up here. Should we break to the upside, then you actually have approximately a 10% pump that you could use. Of course, with leverage it can be way bigger.
US Stock Market Setups
And as you may have heard, the bull market currently is in the stock market. The stock market is pumping a lot. Many of these companies are pumping a lot. You can see 1,000% in Kodak since 11 months ago. Real Mada — 10 months ago — is up 900%. AON — 11 months ago — 800%.
And if you have the Money Scanner, you can also see what flipped during the last one month. For example, here you see Autoomera up 87% four weeks ago, Advanced Solutions up 59% — this is just four weeks ago. Of course, if you use leverage it's bigger. And it's only the US — if you go to other countries there are going to be even more opportunities.
So I will show you a few setups on the daily that are just breaking out.
The first one is Caterpillar. It is a daily new bull trend here on the Money Line, and as you can see it has been in a fantastic bull trend in the past. It had this bear hiccup here for a few months and now it is resuming the bull trend. And it is in price discovery — meaning there's no resistance. Price discovery is always the best. Many people think that buying at the top is bad. And listen, it could be bad — you could be buying the top, it's possible. But at the same time, just based on risk-reward, you have no resistance. There's no resistance and it's still a massive bull trend. So having a long trade here with a nice stop-loss, literally betting on this continuing, makes sense. But in case you're buying the top and it just collapses under you, you have the stop-loss, you're out.
But in general, you want to be in bullish things — and bullish things, especially when they are in price discovery at all-time high, have no resistance. They just fly. So let's see how this goes. The thing is with trading, it doesn't have to go for you all the time. You can set a nice stop-loss, don't worry too much, just throw your shots — the more you practice, the more you are in the market, the more you take good risk-reward bets, even if they play against you, it is a net positive. Because whenever an asset goes to all-time high, many people instantly think, "Oh, it's too expensive." But you don't worry too much. You set a stop-loss, you're part of the bull trend. Is it really the pico top? No worries. Your stop-loss hits, you're out. You move on to the next thing.
Another stock with a very similar analysis is Cisco. Cisco just went bullish after a bit of a hiccup within a massive, massive, massive bull trend. Basically, watch what I just said about Caterpillar because it applies exactly to Cisco. Their charts are very, very similar. And so betting on this bull trend continuing is the best risk-reward scenario right now.
Altcoin Setups — Caution Warranted
Now, in terms of altcoins, you have some interesting setups, but in general they're not as good as with the stocks. Why? Because all of them have a massive, massive bear trend and they're now guessing into a bull trend. So from a short-term perspective, this can easily be a fakeout. But a bull trend is still a bull trend, and should it have legs you could have an interesting trade here — for example, for Arbitrum — to this high, approximately 78%. But I would be careful here. I would be setting a very, very tight stop-loss because this can easily fall back down into bear.
But it's all about risk-reward. Here you have more risk because overall it's still quite bearish. Should Bitcoin dump in May, this thing is going to collapse also. But you also have more reward. So it's all about risk-reward, because just coming back to this level is like a no-brainer should the new bull start — and that's 76%, with leverage obviously way, way more.