Bitcoin's bear trend continues as bullish news fails to move the price
Ivan on Tech, a solo crypto analyst, explains why Bitcoin continues to fall despite positive news, and outlines what signals he is watching for a genuine bottom.
Summary
This solo market analysis argues that Bitcoin remains in a clear bear trend on the weekly chart, defined by a series of lower highs and lower lows, and that no amount of bullish news — regulatory clarity, institutional debt settlements, or ETF inflows — can reverse a bear trend on its own. The analyst addresses a widely shared social media post from a confused retail investor asking why Bitcoin is still down despite so many positive developments, using it to illustrate what he calls the core mechanical rule: bullish news does not pump the market in a bear, just as bad news does not dump the market in a bull. He also points to the absence of high-volume capitulation as a reason not to call a bottom yet, and identifies the 200-week moving average as the key level to watch for a genuine buying opportunity, describing the ideal entry as a zone a bit above or below that level. He expresses confidence that a bull market will return later in the year, but warns against deploying capital while the trend remains bearish.
The episode includes an extended live Q&A in which Ivan reviews stocks (DAX, QQQ, S&P futures), commodities (copper, aluminium, nickel, uranium), and Treasury yields (which he characterises as approximately 5% for T-bills), discussing how elevated oil prices and high yields theoretically pressure risk assets but that stocks — particularly tech — continue to trend higher due to AI-related demand. The analyst reiterates throughout that price trend overrides macro analysis, and that the same rule applies in reverse for Bitcoin, which lacks comparable speculative inflows. Volume patterns on equity indices are used to illustrate how insider buying at bottoms can be identified, reinforcing the same volume-based framework applied to Bitcoin.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's engulfing weekly candle and the bear trend
Ivan: Bitcoin is doing something very, very interesting right now. We did have an engulfing weekly candle, which is super bearish. It's very bad. You don't want an engulfing bearish candle — meaning that we have this red candle and it is bigger than the previous green candle. It is called an engulfing because it's like a crocodile engulfing a deer with all of its teeth at the same time. And now we're continuing lower.
If you've been following me on Twitter, I've been speaking about this day by day by day. If you see this tweet from yesterday, I said that from Saturday we were forming an engulfing candle. The day before that I said to be careful because of the 200-day moving average rejection. Then the day before that, and the day before that. In short — follow on Twitter.
Why bullish news doesn't move the price in a bear market
Here is where I feel sorry for the average retail investor, because the average retail investor in this market has been lied to — has been absolutely lied to. Look at this post. Someone saying: "I have to be honest. After all the positive news this week — with the Clarity Act being approved, Strive announcing that SATO is paying a daily dividend, Strategy producing enough volume to buy at least 10,000-plus Bitcoin, and MSTR settling $1.5 billion of their debt — we're still down."
The average retail investor does not understand how we can still be down with so many good news items. And I can explain. The answer is simple: bullish news doesn't pump the market in the bear, just like bad news doesn't dump the market in the bull. Bitcoin is still in a very strong bear trend.
If you look back at the videos we did during the last few weeks — ever since we started this bounce, we said we're still in a lower high, lower high, lower high trajectory. And of course we're bearish on the money line. So don't get surprised if this doesn't continue, because we need to break the trend. We don't know the future. I don't know the future. But I know that we're in a bear trend, meaning the cards are stacked against you. We are very disciplined in that regard, and also very humbled, because we literally say we don't know the future. But if you are in a bear trend with lower highs and lower lows, the chances are just slimmer. Should we go above the previous high — which on the weekly is approximately $90,000 to $91,000 — that would flip bullish on the money line. Right now the cards are stacked against you.
The person continues: "It literally makes no sense. How can we dump? How did we reach $136,000 where there wasn't half the bullish news?"
The news, guys. As long as people still believe that news matters, it's very, very good for those who know the mechanical rules. If you know our system, this is not news to you. But if you're new, watch the training about the mechanical rules, because this is the worst position to be in.
The same person also writes: "I understand there were mass OG sellers last year. I understand Jane Street was manipulating. I also understand there was a war with Iran. But I don't understand how a company like Intel is up 700% since the US government put a few quid into it. SpaceX is preparing to IPO at a higher valuation than the entire Bitcoin network. Yet Bitcoin as a global monetary asset, despite billions in inflows, is still down 40%."
I love this. It's my best, man. And here's the good news: later this year, we're very likely going to go into a bull. Very, very likely. But a bear trend is a bear trend.
He's asking how Intel is going up so much. Because it's in a bull trend. It's simple. On stocks, we've had many bull trends, and as you know, we don't over-complicate. If it's bullish, it's bullish. That's it. Screaming bullish stocks since they went bullish on the weekly — fantastic, many big fat gains in stocks. Kodiak, TTM, all kinds — not only Intel. Intel here to $327. You've got to be in a bull trend. It's simple.
But no — "How can stocks be up but not crypto?" I don't know what it is. I said last year that someone was manipulating the price and it turned out to be Jane Street. Always someone doing manipulation. It feels off. It will come out eventually. I don't know why, but Bitcoin should be far higher. At least it's going to be far higher. Later this year I think we're going to bottom out and go far higher.
Reading the chart — support levels, the money line, and the bull market support band
So basically what's happening now is very, very predictable. It's been kind of exactly as expected. Can we still bounce here? Can we still find some support? It's possible. We're now using an area of support — this red box here — which should theoretically provide some support. Let's see if Bitcoin can bounce here. But overall, the bull is going to come later this year, and that's the best position to be in — where you have a lot of dry powder, and the bull is starting. If you were patient and did not blast the local top during the last few weeks, you have everything in your power.
The bear trend is the strongest, most important influence on the market. There is no news that will be able to save you from the bear trend.
Speaking about the different indicators — as you know, we've been in a bearish money line since basically the top. When it comes to the bull market support band, we were a bit above it and now potentially going below it. From a risk management perspective, DCAing above it makes sense. But now that we're no longer above it, I wouldn't do it anymore. Instead, should we go back above it, then you slowly DCA, and then DCA fast should we go above the money line. But now we're no longer above it, so I would take it easy, because now you have more risk — more risk that it continues lower and retests around $65,000 and so on.
The problem in general with the bull market support band is that it's simply too flaky. In the last bull it had many fake bearish signals, and in the last bear it had a few fake bullish signals. But it's one indicator, so we follow it and we see it as a weak signal. It's a very, very weak signal, but it is a signal. That's why we check it.
By the way, we did deploy a new version with a different color scheme which is a bit easier to see. Now if I remove the money line, you can see the bull market explorer very clearly — is it bull, is it bear? We're no longer bull. We are inside the band, meaning gray. Should we go below it, it's going to be bearish. We're not above it anymore — kind of like here where we traded one, two, three weeks above it and then went down below. Let's see how this week goes.
Volume as the key signal for a genuine bottom
If we see a flash, it's likely the last flash. I want to be very clear: if we see a flash, there needs to be high volume. That's another very important thing I want to discuss. Without high volume, it's just less likely that it is the bottom. You need big fat volume.
You see here in 2023 we had a lot of volume. Now — where's the volume? If you look at previous lows, fat volume, big fat volume. Now not a lot. If you zoom in, you can maybe say we had big volume at a certain point, but it's very small volume overall. If you compare it to the smallest candles and then zoom in far enough, then yes, we did have a bit of volume there — but it's tiny. I mean, if you compare with the big picture, it's tiny.
I think we need something volume-wise like this — at least something that is above everything else — that shows us that the market makers have bought. They're no longer distributing, and we've reached the buying climax. You know what the buying climax is? It's when the market maker steps in. The insiders, the specialists — they step in and they buy a lot of supply at the cheap price, and then we ride the bull and they distribute supply at way higher prices. So here, for example, you see a lot of volume — the market maker was buying like there's no tomorrow. And you see something else very important: lots of volume, but the price did not dump anymore. It was stable. How can that be? Everyone is dumping, but someone is buying. Who? The market maker — buying at very nice wholesale prices, and then distributing on your ass up here at retail price. Very important.
The 200-week moving average and the buy zone
Should we see a flash and we see volume — very nice, very clear signal. Another signal is if we go to the 200-week moving average. If I go here to the MA pack starter pack — the 200-week moving average has been moving higher. When we had this crash that touched $59,000, it was at around $58,000. Now it is at $61,000. So it is moving higher and it is easier to reach. Meaning that should we go to it, it's a good place to buy. That's why we have the buy zone — representing basically the 200-week moving average and buying around it, a bit above or below. If we go below it, it's also good.
So those are the bearish scenarios. In terms of bullish scenarios — we go bull here somehow, we try to pump from this support red box, and then we have resistance at $86,000, and ultimately the next resistance is the big flip on the money line. That's the next one from the bull perspective.
Daily chart and the Goliath — the 200-day moving average
On the daily, still hanging on bullish since mid-April. But now it's right on the border, and it's going to need five days below the flip. So for now the bulls are still leading on the daily, but with a thin margin.
Also, we have the Goliath right here — the 200-day moving average, the white line, pushing us down, pushing us back into the basement. Bigly pushing us back into the basement. And on the bull market support band and the moving averages, we are below them, so they are red.
The psychological challenge of trading in a bear market
How can we summarize this? I want to ensure that this is received as a positive thing, because at the end of the day in the bear — just like Ben Cowan says — it is hard to have a steady hand, and you need a steady hand in the bear. Why is it hard? Because if you look at the number of days we trend up on the lower time frame, it is higher than the number of days we fall. It stairs up very, very slowly to a lower high, and then elevator down. That's why it's very hard to have a steady hand.
Another thing people don't really understand is what it means to be in a bear trend, because you can always zoom in more. Sometimes people say, "But Ivan, we've been trending up since March here." If you zoom in on the daily, it is a trend. But it's a lower time frame. If you zoom in on the hourly, on the 4-hour, on the 10-minute, you can find some kind of trend everywhere. But the most important macro trend is the weekly. That's the most important one. So when I say we are in a bear trend, it is that on the weekly — lower high, lower high, lower high. Of course you can zoom in and find trends within it, but you have to look at the macro. The macro is the weekly.
And yeah — you have the money line bearish, but most importantly you still don't have a higher high. You have lower highs. That needs to change at some point. It is going to change at some point. I think it's going to be later this year that we go into a big, fantastic, golden bull. For now, not changing.
Anecdotal signals and macro context — Fed chair, China-US trade, and tech stocks
Also from the bearish perspective — this is more anecdotal — but every time a new Fed chair was selected, Bitcoin dropped 70%. I'm not trading based on this one, but it's a bit anecdotal. Will Kevin Warsh pump us or not?
There is some stuff that the bulls could get priced in from the stock market. The US and China are now coming to big agreements. They had the meeting in Beijing, and we haven't seen any big announcements yet, but maybe that's coming. The US and China have agreed to lower tariffs on unspecified products to promote bilateral trade. Should we see a bunch of China announcements come out, the stock market will pump, maybe crypto will pump. Maybe — it's not a guarantee.
What I know is driving crypto very directly is IGV. If we go to the tech list — IGV could drive Bitcoin. In fact, Bitcoin is following it quite exactly. It is now in a bull trend. IGV — the tech stock index — could drive it. Also, the volume on IGV: this kind of volume is bottoming volume. This kind of volume is good when you see a potential bottom. You want this kind of volume. You compare to how it was before and how it is now — this is the kind of volume you want to see when a bottom is forming. Let's see if it can pull Bitcoin with it. That would be a bit bullish overall for Bitcoin also, if stocks keep pumping and China keeps announcing more stuff with the US.
The case for being a 360-degree investor across asset classes
Just a reminder to be a 360-degree investor. I think we started speaking about being a 360 investor already back last summer, because we prepared our platform to be fully 360 — meaning we have crypto, stocks, commodities, ETFs. We track all of the trends across all of the assets.
And this person explains why it's so important: "I sold all my crypto a year ago and went all in on stocks and silver. I'm now up 30% on my stock portfolio and 150% on silver, while at the same time I would be down 50% if I had continued holding crypto. It was one of the most impactful investment decisions of my life."
Exactly. It is basically mechanical rules — de-risk like hell in Q4, then be in other bull trends. I know a ton of people who made a lot of money in crypto, but many missed the exit and kept bag-holding tokens down 70%. And it's very hard to not bag-hold them down because you have the peer pressure, the gaslighting — it's quite crazy.
A lot of people in crypto have this hatred for Strategy, and honestly I don't understand why. The reality is that the S&P will continue to be up on the chart over the next 100 years if you zoom out. Meanwhile, most crypto tokens will probably continue to trend down towards zero. There's truth in that — many altcoins will not come back. Bitcoin will come back 100%. And many people will miss the flip back. So there's going to be a massive flip back where everyone declares crypto dead, and crypto will come back faster than ever.
This time it's been quite something. Maybe I'm going to do a documentary about this whole bull-jaculation, as I call it, because I have collected all of the frothy bullish takes. I have them all archived. I have everything archived. This one was quite funny — from Real Vision, apparently people pay money for this kind of stuff — posting stuff like this at $83,000. Anyway, I have archived all kinds of stuff from the bull-jaculation time. Basically people celebrating the local top. Maybe I'm going to do a documentary. Maybe we're going to write a book — "The Big Bear," the survival in the bear market, where not only the price is against you but also the Twitter noise is messing with your positions.
And by the way, the price is the easiest to deal with for most people, because on the price you have the bear trend — it's quite clear. But the Twitter gaslighting that happens — that's the real danger for the average retail investor who does not have a steady hand, does not have a system. My Twitter is the biggest threat. The biggest threat.
Live Q&A — stocks, commodities, yields, and macro pressure on Bitcoin
Ivan: The bull market is going to come back 100%. Just not yet. And we're here to take it day by day, step by step. We're not here to waste capital. We're here to ensure that we invest in ways where the cards are stacked in our favor. We ride the bull. We don't ride the bear down. What's the point of riding the bull if you lose all your money in the bear? It's masochism. You create a bunch of work for yourself with accounting and tax calculations, and then you go up and you go down, and sometimes you go down more than you go up. That's a problem. Never hold through a bear trend. Never do that.
Big shout out to Matt for monitoring. Also Will — fantastic. Welcome, welcome, welcome.
Someone in the chat says stocks roll over when the DAX is leading. Well, let's see. We're super humble, so we're not predicting anything. When they roll over, we'll see it. Right now there is no rollover. This candle is not really pretty, but let's see if something happens. We are in a heavy, heavy bull trend still on stocks. This weekly candle — normally I'm not a big fan of wicks. Let's see if we see something in the volume. Nothing special in the volume. Just standard volume. I wouldn't put too much into this. It's bull trend, we went to all-time highs, new all-time high. Let's see how this week starts. The futures are opening a bit down, so potentially a bit of concern.
QQQ — I'm not a fan of this wick. When you have these wicks I don't like it, but there's nothing strange in the volume. The volume is the answer to many things. Where you have a wick like this — should you have super high volume — then you know that something is going on, meaning the market maker, the insiders, are dumping a lot into it. You have this wick because as soon as it pumps there's so much sell pressure it goes down. But because the volume is not really telling us anything, I don't want to over-dramatize this. The candle is not pretty when you have wicks like this, but let's see if we have any examples where it's clearer.
By the way, you see the volume here on this bottom candle — volume very important. One clue would be that we have a tiny candle but then the volume is massive. That's a very big warning. When you have a tiny candle but massive volume — why is it a tiny candle? Because someone has been dumping like crazy. And normally it is the insider market maker — people that trade both sides of the market. They dump on the high price, then they wait for it to collapse, and then they buy at the cheap low price. That's why volume around the bottom is another clue that someone is buying bigly.
Someone in the chat mentions the micro USD bill at 4.6%. All of this is putting pressure on risk assets, including stocks, but stocks pump anyway. So until they turn bearish, they're bullish. That's it. But it's true — oil is high. Oil is super high at $106. This is putting pressure on stocks, risk assets, and Bitcoin.
Yields, T-bills, and why macro analysis alone is insufficient
Let's see the yields. Yields are very high. Why is this bad for stocks and risk assets? Because you can put your money in T-bills now and get 4.6%. You don't have to take risk in stocks, because the stock market can go down a lot. Bonds — in the sense that you give money, you will get the money back plus interest. Now, could the US go bankrupt? Possible. But in finance it's called the risk-free rate, meaning the risk is that the US goes bankrupt, which is considered essentially risk-free. So you have risk-free rates here of around 5%. If you take a shorter bond, it's 3.8%.
So yeah, this is also putting pressure on stocks — at least theoretically it should. That's the problem. Theoretically it should. Practically, for now, stocks are pumping in a bull trend, and that overrides this micro analysis. As you know, we don't put too much weight into macro if the price does not agree. Should the price agree, then yes — if it's a bear trend on stocks and all of this is happening, then okay, it makes sense. Here, the price trend is number one. This is number two. The price trend overrides.
In terms of Bitcoin — Bitcoin is bearish, and then you have all of this happening. So for Bitcoin, I would say this is more applicable, because Bitcoin is kind of behaving in this way where oil is high, risk assets are struggling, and rates are high. It could just be that stocks have exceptional demand now with the AI stuff, and they're pulling all the money into AI. It's so strong that no one really looks at oil and other stuff. They just pile into AI, AI, AI. But that's exactly why we look at the trend. The price is the answer. It's so simple. Price is the answer.
While Bitcoin — what is the driver now? There's very little driver. Currently stocks are stealing all of the speculative inflows, and you can also put your money in T-bills and get 5% per year. That may sound small if you have a thousand dollars, but not that small if you have a billion dollars. The average return in stocks over the long term is 8%. So you put your money in a T-bill and get around 5%. You put your money in stocks and should get 8%. But the risk is a very different risk. So normally these high yields would put pressure on stocks, and we would see some kind of equilibrium, because the more people buy the bond, the less the interest rate becomes.
This macro stuff is normally too complex for the average retail brain. And by the way, you and I are retail. Let me be clear — we're also retail. It's not like we can analyze it. We're not all-knowing AI looking at the macro and analyzing 50 million different data points. We need way more simple. And that's why we have very simple red-green, red-green, red-green. Can you just follow red-green? Most people can't even follow red-green. That's a big problem. How can you make it as simple as possible? It's green — you're bullish. It's red — you're bearish. Most people still don't understand it.
Because Real Vision posts stuff like this on Twitter — posting bullish takes during a pump, saying "let's go, all-time high." Look at the chart. It's going up 1% after being down 80%, then recovers 5%. Look at the chart. It needs to be studied like a science experiment. What happens? It's like 1% up and people are saying "it's going." So it needs to be studied in detail. Whether it's a documentary or a book, let's see what format we decide.
Commodities — copper, aluminium, and what they signal about the economy
Let's see the commodities. Aluminium — 10 months ago, big fat bull. Nickel, uranium, live cattle. Let's see the bearish ones also. Copper — technically in a bear, but let's see. It's pumping. Let's see if it's actually bull now. We need to refresh. Yeah, it is bull currently. There is demand for copper. Things are building out. Is it data centers? Who is using it? When copper is pumping, it means the economy is doing okay.
Positioning for the eventual bull — the 200-week moving average buy zone
Someone in the chat says: at $60,000, insurers are taking profit on the way down, then it's time to go shopping. Yeah — should we go to the 200-week moving average, it's a good time to be bullish, in the green box. Because the 200-day moving average has been moving up. We may have to move the buy zone up a bit because the 200-week itself is moving up, and this box is based on the 200-week. The goal is to have the top of the box at 10% above the 200-week. So I'll see if we can do an indicator with this so it tracks it in real time. Actually, I think we have kind of an indicator for it already. If you go to the pre-charts and then to secret price valuation — here. But this one is a bit different because the cheap zone starts at the 200-week. I would like to have 10% above it. But anyway, there's another way of seeing it. There you go.