Bitcoin analyst Ivan sees early bullish signals amid a continuing bear trend
Ivan on Tech delivers a solo Bitcoin and crypto market analysis, identifying early signs of a potential bull market recovery while cautioning that the overall trend remains bearish.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a mixed-signal analysis of the current Bitcoin market: technically still in a bear trend, but showing early indicators that the cycle may be turning. He argues that Bitcoin's bounce off the 200-week moving average, the emergence of bullish chart patterns in select altcoins, and renewed retail interest in speculative assets are all early-cycle signals similar to those seen before previous bull runs. He also covers the Anthropic AI export ban and its implications for decentralized AI narratives, the SpaceX retail mania and why he prefers Bitcoin over SpaceX for long-term returns, and growing government surveillance proposals in the UK as a driver for privacy-focused crypto. Throughout, he emphasizes that while mental preparation for a bull market is appropriate now, the chart still demands bearish caution for another estimated four months.
On ETF flows, Ivan reviews current data showing persistent outflows — which he reads as confirmation that the bear trend remains technically intact, even as he expects it to end within a few months. He also expresses a clear preference for Solana over ETH at current prices, citing personal daily use of Solana, superior user experience, and opportunity cost as key reasons — while acknowledging ETH could still be a valid buy if and when it turns bullish.
Tomorrow's FOMC — Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair — is flagged as a potential volatility event, since markets cannot price in an unfamiliar speaker's tone and direction the way they could with Jerome Powell. Actively managed Bitcoin ETFs are viewed skeptically, with Ivan drawing on the poor track record of crypto funds in previous cycles and structural limitations of active management to argue that a straightforward Bitcoin ETF from a major provider such as BlackRock is preferable. On SpaceX, Ivan notes three separate tranches of approximately 7% share unlocks (in August, around October, and later in the year), which he argues will weigh on the price and make it more of a short-term trade than a long-term hold.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's Current Position and Early Bull Signals
Ivan: Yes, yes, yes. Welcome to another episode. As you can see, right now, Bitcoin is doing something very, very interesting. We've bounced off of the 200-week moving average. We're going higher and higher and higher. We're now testing a very, very big resistance. This resistance here at approximately 65 — this yellow line right here — it is going to be quite important for us to breach and go up and leave it behind, because this is the big danger now: that we get rejected here.
For now, at least for now, Bitcoin is above it. Bitcoin is still pushing above it within a macro bear trend. Bitcoin is still in a micro bear trend, meaning that we're prepared for downside. We're prepared to get rejected here. We're prepared that it's going to go lower. But at the same time, the bear market just has a few months left. I think that within the coming four, maybe five months, we're out of the bear — out of the bear hole, so to speak. We're climbing out of there, and we are seeing more and more things pointing to bullishness.
Gaming and Altcoin Narrative Signals
For example, there is a bit of a rebirth in gaming. You have this lady here — she's a partner at a16z — and she is basically promoting some low-cap games. She's not posting the actual token; she's just saying that a lot of these games are made by AI. You have this World of Clawcraft, an open-source MMO created with Fable 5, which got removed unfortunately. Shockingly full-featured — you can accept quests, trade items, and so on. And of course, it is a coin on Solana. You have Kintara, and all kinds of these things.
The important thing is not necessarily to trade them. We're not going all in on these small coins. Many of them are super small — you see market caps like 100K, so don't touch them. But overall, this phenomenon — that people care about coins of this small size — is bullish. It means that we are seeing a bit of a rebirth. We spoke about this yesterday as well, but this is the kind of stuff you want to see right before the next bull. I remember in the last bear market when Pepe started, a lot of these meme coins came — Harry Potter Obama Sonic, you know. Bitcoin was still bearish, still in a bear trend. But then a lot of this stuff started to happen, and that was the first ignition for the bulls.
So that's number one.
Number two, some charts are starting to point up. For example, when you look at JTO — this is one of the Solana ecosystem coins — it has been in a bear trend since Q4, actually even before that, since March 2025. It found a bottom, did a rounded bottom — very, very nice — and now it's going into a bull trend for the first time since March 2025. This is important because when things go bullish after this many months of being bearish, you have to pay attention, especially if it is on the weekly chart. So we will be monitoring this in a big way.
This basically means that if you are trading altcoins, JTO is one of the ones to keep an eye on because it's bullish, and most of them are bearish. Most of them are still bearish, but this one managed to become bullish on a weekly trend — did the rounded bottom. Overall, this looks quite nice as a chart. We're going to be following up.
Looking at Jupiter — still bearish. Don't touch Jupiter. Not good. Can still go lower. Helium — very bad. You see it? It breached the support we were drawing maybe a month ago and went lower. Don't touch. Don't touch things that are still bearish. Render — still bearish. Don't touch. Pump — still bearish. Don't touch. Only touch if it's bull. And the only one that's bull right now is JTO, because we're still technically in a deep bear. But you see the first signs here and there.
Anthropic AI Ban and the Decentralized AI Narrative
Number two, this whole thing with AI getting banned. The fact that Fable got banned by the US government for exports — this is so big for the crypto narrative as well, because not only is it bad for the developers of AI, if you do AI and you have a centralized company, you can get targeted by the US government because they don't like you. And I think in this case it could be like that, because Trump does not like Anthropic. If you Google Trump versus Anthropic, if you Google what has been going on — Anthropic got banned from all governmental use months ago, and now they are coming in and basically banning exports for Anthropic's latest model.
This is very important, and you will have a push towards decentralized AI. Look here — "They screwed us. Personality clashes sent Anthropic models offline. Anthropic has once again found itself in the Trump administration's crosshairs over an inability to communicate effectively." US officials say Fable and Mus were shut down because Anthropic can't speak Trump's language. Yeah, it's called money. Someone says maybe they did not sweeten the deal for Trump. Maybe they did not pay respect to the don in the proper way. Who the hell knows? But at the end of the day, with centralized AI, for this just US domestic reason, you have a big risk with the administration.
But then also for international political reasons — look here. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said that the US restrictions on Anthropic models show the danger of relying too much on American providers. So at the end of the day, it's another push towards decentralized AI.
If we look at different decentralized AI tokens — I just put the most important ones, I don't want a big fat list where things are barely AI — you still have Venice in a bull trend. Very, very nice. Anything that's in a bull trend is up 359% since it turned bullish back here. So this one looks good. Fetch AI — or whatever they're called now, like the International AI Alliance or something — very bad, still in a bear trend, don't touch. Technically bull but wait for it to go above here, because the bull is weak. It kind of went almost bearish again. Don't touch until it goes above these highs right here. So the only one that's good right now is Venice, because it's still bull, still looking good. We want a strong chart. This one is strong — very, very nice.
Again, early sign of the bull: we have a narrative. We do have a narrative. That's very, very nice and so important and so central to everything that's going on.
SpaceX Retail Mania and Comparison to Bitcoin
Next, you do have a lot of money being able to get invested. SpaceX mania is massive. SpaceX three-trillion market cap today. The retail investor is buying SpaceX at Costco. Here is someone at Costco buying SpaceX. If you are trading SpaceX, on the 30-minute chart you have a trend now. So we have something to work with. That's very, very nice.
Overall, the likelihood of something like this in the coming quarters is very big. No one cares about Bitcoin now. Everyone is all about SpaceX, and it's going to flip very, very rapidly. The only difference here is that with SpaceX, the amount that was possible to get in at was around $175 or so. With Bitcoin, you have a crazy discount here already at the 200-week moving average versus the potential. For SpaceX to do something like what Bitcoin is about to do in the coming years, it has to go to like $10 trillion market cap.
So you always have to look at what is the upside from here and what's possible for you to be part of. Also, SpaceX is going to have massive unlocks — they have a 7% unlock in August, another 7% later this year around October, and another 7% around that time as well. So all in all, a lot of new shares are going to come onto the market. That's why some people are saying that SpaceX is a bit like a low-float memecoin right now. Very few shares are actually circulating, and a lot of shares are going to start to circulate in the coming months. So trade it on the trend. You have the 30-minute trend confirmed, but understand that as soon as it turns bearish, as soon as the momentum shifts — which I think is very likely in the coming months — you're out.
Why? Because you have big attention now. This is the highest attention SpaceX is ever going to have until they go to Mars or something. For SpaceX to have this amount of attention, they have to colonize Mars. We have to go to Alpha Centauri. We are at peak, peak, peak attention. Now when you look at Bitcoin, no one cares. Everyone is joking, saying it failed, it was fugazi all along, yada yada yada.
The Case for Bullish Thinking Now
And here is where I agree with Ansam, where he describes the opportunities. Listen to this:
Ansam: "I would say that this current juncture in crypto, where a lot of people have a negative perception of crypto, is usually when the best opportunities arise and when you should be doing the most research. Because it's just how things work. When a lot of people aren't expecting things to do really well, the smart people are building these products before the marketing of these products happens. And then once the marketing of these products happens is when the average person ends up finding out about them. But there are people who have been working on and building these things for years. Even with AI, there are people who were working at OpenAI for years before ChatGPT had a breakout moment. But as an average person, you did not know that people were working on solving these problems. I think there are similar things happening right now in crypto, where people are working on problems that crypto uniquely solves, that you're not really going to see get popular until after the fact."
Ivan: 100%. Fundamentals good, use case good with decentralized AI. Also remember privacy — we spoke a lot about privacy as well. Privacy is a big, big narrative, especially as governments are going loco.
UK Surveillance Proposals and the Privacy Narrative
It's another narrative I wanted to share with you for the next bull. The UK is going absolutely loco. The UK now proposes scanning all private content on user devices, or jail for executives of device companies. So if you make a phone — if you're Tim Cook at Apple — and you don't scan the content of the user on the phone and send it to Keir Starmer, you're going to go to jail. Very, very quickly to jail.
Also remember how France already arrested Pavel Durov earlier this year for not scanning Telegram. That's number one. Number two, this is on a device level, meaning you cannot even use the phone freely unless you literally KYC. This can be done via Apple ID — Apple ID is likely going to be the KYC provider here. It does not matter what apps you use. On top of this, they will require another KYC submission on the app level to access certain apps. This will manage both device and app levels.
Privacy is going to be massive, massive, massive as a counter-trend to this. So massive.
Overall Market Assessment
So what do we make out of all of this? First green shoots of bullishness are showing themselves. That's number one. Overall, we need to hold two thoughts in the brain at the same time here, because overall, Bitcoin is still bearish. I cannot make this bear disappear. We have to pump — that's the only thing that will make it disappear. As we're still bearish, we're still expecting lower prices. It is what it is. At the same time, mentally, we're already becoming quite bullish mentally. Practically, we're still in a deep bear trend. Deep, deep bear trend.
Let's say we even go here and do another lower high — you understand yourself, it's just going to be another lower high. The chance of us getting rejected here at this yellow line is still very, very high. But we have a few things speaking in our favor even within the bear trend: the 200-week moving average, which is a good, cheap price for Bitcoin long-term. And the time — the fact that we are now eight months since the top. Maybe we have another four months, and then we have a nice big fantastic juicy bottom. That's exactly how we like it, and it's going to go fast.
People are already kind of checking out from the markets a bit with the World Cup. They go watch the World Cup, summer vacation, take the kids to the beach, do their stuff, come back by September — and by September, the bear is over. We have a very, very nice Valhalla. But just as a bull trend is still a trend, expect to lose a bit more if you're just holding from the top. You could expect to lose a bit more, but the worst is likely behind us. We've already lost from $125K to $60K. We're not going to lose another $60K and go to $5K Bitcoin. We're not going to $5K Bitcoin. The worst is behind us. Maybe we'll go to $50K. Probably not. Probably not.
Q&A
Ivan: The top was eight months ago, not six. Yeah, exactly — time flies. It was October, eight months ago, because I remember it like it was yesterday. October 8th, and then October 10th when we had the collapse. Was it eight months ago? Oh my god. Yeah, even more bullish then — even less time to wait to reload. It's like four months then. Four months until October. July, August — holy crap, it's just four months until October. Crazy. But the bear market is almost over.
Here's the problem: most people are only now turning bearish. We've been in a bear trend for a long time. The time to turn bearish was in October. If your favorite influencer has been bullish and is now turning bearish, that's very bad timing. Now is the time to start being a bit bullish — to put on the green glasses, to be a bit more open-minded for a big Valhalla in the coming months. Not yet acting on it — we're still in a bear trend — but see this technique of thinking one way but still acting the old way. It's very important, because in the markets, people's brains are slow to react to reality. So we are pre-reacting.
On October 8th, we said it's a top. Goodbye bull market. Bye-bye. We said it very clearly. You can go back to October 8th. For most people it took three months, four months for them to kind of realize, holy crap, it's a bear market. But in this case, we are already putting bullish thoughts in our brain while it's still bearish on the chart. Your brain will not have a lag of four months like everyone else who lost money since October. We did not have the lag because we were prepared to switch quickly.
We are thinking about the promised La La Land, but we are still in the Kaka country. That's exactly true.
Altcoin Picks and Chart Analysis
What are the best things to start looking at as the bull market begins again? ETH, Hyper — I mean, these are the kinds of things we have to take as they come. For example, now you have a clear signal in JTO. Two months ago it would have been impossible to say whether it was going to be JTO or Jupiter who would go bullish first. The answer is you don't know until they go bullish. So now JTO has gone bullish — we have something to work with. JTO is out of the Solana ecosystem — everything else is still bearish.
HyperLiquid is also bullish, by the way. That one is okay. You can easily have HyperLiquid — very, very nice, bullish, fantastic. Fantom is still bearish, so don't touch it until it goes to $30. Or if it goes to a bull trend, it will go bullish at $93. So that's going to be the bull sign. Or if it goes to around $30, it's so cheap that I'm going to buy it even if it's in a bear trend.
Zcash is bullish, so that one you can have. Tron is just now turning bearish, so I would actually avoid it. Tron is normally super strong and can easily go into a bull trend, but just wait for the bull trend. It will basically have to go back to all-time high. So Tron — for now, bear, don't touch.
ETH — it's tough because it's just sideways, ranging sideways. The real bull signal would be when it goes above all of this range and really pumps above all of this, breaking this five-year consolidation. At the same time, it is now at a very big support from years ago at $2,063. So ETH — I'm not touching it until it goes into a bull trend at $2.2K. Before that, no. I'm not that excited about it. Solana at $30 — I'm very excited. ETH at $1.5K — I don't get the same excitement to buy it in a bear trend. At $30, Solana is so cheap. ETH is still too expensive for me. But if it's bull, it's bull. Now it's bear.
Worldcoin Chart Analysis
What's going on with Worldcoin? Let's see — WLD. Oh, this one is also interesting. Worldcoin just now flipped bullish since September 2025. See, this is the kind of stuff you want to see. So WLD — thanks for bringing this up — Worldcoin is also very, very interesting from the perspective of being bullish after a long time being bearish. Long time bearish, nice rounded bottom. So yeah, this one is also interesting from the trend perspective currently. Another one of the signs that something is happening to this bear. The bear is kind of dying. Okay, it's dying a slow, slow death, but dying. He's still big. He can still eat us alive. You buy something, it can go to zero. Even with a bull trend, if you don't have a stop loss and mechanical rules, you're going to get wrecked.
SpaceX as a Trade vs. Long-Term Hold
Should you buy SpaceX? I see it more as a trading opportunity. For long term, I'm not buying SpaceX. For example, on the 30-minute chart, you have a trend here. So you can trade this trend. Should it go bearish, you're out. That's it. Now it's going to open very nicely here at $210 and keep going further.
The reason why for the long term it's not really for me is because the most amount of attention it gets is now. Which means that the likelihood of a nice bottom within the coming months — when attention moves and everyone thinks about something else and the unlocks happen — is real. It's a bit like crypto with the memecoin low float: you release only a few percent of your supply so that the price runs up. SpaceX is very similar.
Long-term, I still love Elon. I believe in Elon long-term. But for us to focus our money where it's going to have the biggest return, I think crypto is just better. If we bottom out somewhere around $50K, we could easily go to half a million in the next cycle in Bitcoin. That's a 10x. For SpaceX to do a 10x, we need to go to Mars, Alpha Centauri — we have to go to the outer spots of the Milky Way to get such attention as it has right now and to do what Bitcoin is likely to do in the next cycle.
To trade it — not to marry it, but to trade it — you have a nice trend now on the 30-minute chart. The daily chart is going to take some days. So you need to go to lower time frames. You can even trade the 10-minute. It's bearish currently, but it's likely going to flip super bullish once we open. So that's SpaceX — for short term, fine. For long term, I think you're always buying at a better price with crypto at the 200-week moving average. Once we see a cooldown in this SpaceX mania, I think we're going to be very interested in what happens next. We need that to settle. We need the new cycle to move on to other stuff. When everyone at Costco has bought it — what happens next? New cycle, new cycle.
ETH and the Solana Comparison
Best thing to do now is to stack cash and enable every bit. Yep, exactly. That's it — with us being around the 200-week moving average.
Jumping on the privacy narrative with EIP — the problem is ETH is tough. I speak from my own experience. I was all in ETH. I love ETH. But then when you start using Solana and everything else, how do you go back? I cannot go back to ETH. Very tough. What's building on ETH? Like all of this new stuff we speak about — nothing is building on ETH. It's very tough. I don't know what they're going to do.
Just as a user, at the end of the day, everything comes down to the user. If ETH does not change radically — if it's not fast, if everything isn't smooth like on Solana — it's going to be tough to go back. For stable coins sometimes, to get payment in stable coin, we still use it. It's still usable. But the thing is, we also look at the chart. Should it go bull, great — that's it. But I don't use it myself too much nowadays. That's a big problem for me to buy it.
If Solana goes to $30, I'm going to buy it because I use it myself every day. So for me it makes sense. ETH — I don't have the same approach. But if it's bullish, it's bullish. Now it's bearish. ETH at $1,000 — if it's in a bear trend, I will just wait for the bull to go to a thousand. It could go to a thousand. But then the bull trend is maybe going to be at like $1.3K, $1.4K. I cannot buy everything in this world. I have to choose. It's all about opportunity cost. Obviously buying ETH at $1,000 is good — it was at $5K, now you buy it at $1K. It's good. It's not bad. But I cannot be buying everything. So I have to be selective. It's opportunity cost, capital efficiency. If you ask me — ETH at $1,000 or Solana at $30 — I buy Solana at $30 any day before ETH at a thousand. ETH at $1,000 is a good deal, but I cannot be buying everything.
Sandisk and Other Charts
Sandisk — it's been a fantastic ride. Oh, it's going to open even higher. Up 6,471% since the bull flip and going higher. That's exactly how we like it.
Do you think Solana will catch up to HyperLiquid when it comes to perpetual trading? I don't know. It's hard. At the same time, they do have their own ecosystem. They have their own trading of stocks happening now, for example via Sunrise. They had a lot of momentum in that space — $60 million in trailing 24-hour volume on Solana. So they are creating their own niche with tokenized stocks. Is it the same as on HyperLiquid? No, it's totally different. They don't have a good answer to perps right now. They don't. That's why HyperLiquid keeps going up. But they have their own tokenized stock thing. HyperLiquid is a beast — going to all-time high, bull trend, strong, very nice, beautiful. Solana is not a threat to it. Not at all.
Japan Rate Decision and FOMC
What time is the Japan rate news? I don't know exactly. They should increase the rate, but don't worry about it too much. In my experience, all of the Japan stuff gets a bit of an overreaction — like with the Japanese carry trade, people saying it's going to impact everything. My guess is that it won't matter too much. Should something move, we'll see the NASDAQ and S&P start collapsing in real time and we're going to notice.
Tomorrow we also have FOMC. Kevin Warsh is going to have his first FOMC. That one will probably have more impact because every single word will be weighed by the market. That normally actually has an impact, especially if it's a new chair with a new direction — you can have volatility. It doesn't mean it's more than a few hours of volatility sometimes. But in many cases these speeches do have some kind of impact on the hourly candles at least. Especially when there are unknown things — with Powell, his last speeches didn't really create any volatility because everything was known. With Kevin Warsh, there may be volatility because we just don't know. The market cannot price in what's going to come out of his mouth, how he's going to speak. He's probably not going to change the rate — the market has quite a good idea about that — but what he's going to say, how he's going to sound, is going to be very interesting. So that's tomorrow.
Peter Schiff, Intel, and Actively Managed Bitcoin ETFs
JGC — Pompiano having Peter Schiff. I think he said it's not going to zero. I think it was on CNBC or something. Peter Schiff did not want to take the bet that it's going to go to zero.
Intel is still looking good. Bullish kind of open here around the previous high.
How about the SEC approving actively managed Bitcoin ETFs? Yeah, I actually had it in my news a few days ago but didn't cover it because it seemed a bit boring. So they basically allowed an actively managed ETF. Good that it's possible, but I would stay away from stuff like this because actively managing crypto in many cases is going to be bad. How are they going to manage it? They're going to manage it on Wall Street.
You know the Meet Kevin channel — he speaks about stocks and stuff, but he had his own actively managed stock ETF and he shut it down because it didn't perform well. He recorded a video about how it works having an actively managed ETF. He said he wanted to do a trade, called the ETF company, they were on lunch, they were unavailable, they came back tomorrow — he missed the entry. That's number one. Number two, they also told him he couldn't have too much Tesla — it's too concentrated, against the ETF rules. I don't know if it's going to be similar here, but just looking at how bad crypto funds have been in last cycles — look at Three Arrows Capital, look at all of them. They've been so bad.
I would stay away. Many of them will also ride you down. ETH, Solana, XRP — Solana can go down 90% easy, easy, easy. XRP also. So if they're just going to slash money from Bitcoin to ETH to Solana to XRP, you can do it yourself better. Anything actively managed — stay away. It's better to have, if you want crypto in your retirement, a proper ETF like BlackRock. That's it. The actively managed ones are going to do more harm than good. I think it's very hard for them to outperform crypto. Some boomer guy is going to rebalance it — no. I would stay away. But good that it's possible. Good that it's possible.
ETF Flows Data
Let me check the ETF flow data. We have it here — ETF daily flows. Let me check the latest. So on the 15th of June we have outflows. Yesterday was out a bit — out, out. Oh my god. Look at this. Holy crap. Out, out. Holy crap. Yeah, we're still deep in the bear when it comes to ETF flows. They are pushing the price down. ETFs are good in bull, they're just bad in bear. So it's showing us that we're still in a bear trend. If we go to $50K, if we go to $40K, it wouldn't surprise me. But timewise, I think we just have a few months left of the bear. Timewise. But yeah, holy crap — what outflows. Oh my god. It's not much in dollar terms, but it's honest work. It tells the story.