Ivan on Tech gives a Bitcoin market update amid Iran peace deal news and Fed chair transition
Ivan on Tech's solo market analysis show covering Bitcoin's technical position, geopolitical developments, and broader market conditions.
Summary
Bitcoin is bouncing off the 200-week moving average, sitting within what Ivan considers a buy zone, as he presents a solo market analysis covering geopolitical developments and broader macro conditions. and sitting within what he considers a buy zone, though the overall trend remains bearish. He argues that the threshold required to flip Bitcoin into a weekly bull trend has been falling rapidly — from 91k a few weeks prior to 84k at the time of recording — suggesting a bull market confirmation could come sooner than many expect. He discusses a reported US-Iran peace deal and its potential connection to incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting on Wednesday, speculating that Trump may be engineering a favorable macro environment to give Warsh dovish ammunition. He also makes a broader argument that the AI trade is nearing its end as governments and populist politics increasingly target tech billionaires, and that this dynamic is bullish for crypto, particularly privacy coins like Zcash.
He also highlights that Warsh has disclosed crypto-related exposure, noting this makes his positioning interesting to the crypto market, though he acknowledges Warsh cannot be overtly promotional about specific assets. He briefly demonstrates the Bullmania 'money scanner' tool, pointing to SandDisk (up ~600% since its bull flip signal) and Intel (up ~400%) as examples of stock opportunities identified by the system.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's Technical Position: 200-Week Moving Average and the Bull Trend Threshold
Ivan on Tech: We're going live as soon as possible. Guys, welcome to another episode. As you can see right now, we have a very interesting situation for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is bouncing off the 200-week Moving Average. We did go into the buy zone. We did go to the 200-week Moving Average, which is the long-term fair price of Bitcoin. When we go back to the 200-week Moving Average, we return to the mean. And now we do have a bit of a bounce. This bounce is basically retesting this old support, which is now resistance at approximately 65–66k. As you can see, we spent a lot of time here, and now it's a bit of a bounce and retesting whether we're going to hold it as resistance or not.
Overall, you can see that we are still in a bear trend on the weekly. But the bear trend threshold is falling a lot — in terms of how much we have to pump in order to go to a bull trend, it's not that high anymore. Now we just have to go back to 84k, and next week it may go even lower. So the bullishness is really loading for this market. I really want you to understand that later this year, the chances for us to go bull are very, very high. Just a few weeks ago, we needed to go to 91k to go into the weekly bull trend on the money line — to basically confirm the bull market. Now it is just 84k and it is falling rapidly. So keep an eye on this.
We're still risk-off overall. This industry is still bearish. Bitcoin is still bearish. But the fact that we did go into the buy zone, and the fact that we are around the 200-week Moving Average, really shows you that good things will start to happen sooner or later — and most likely sooner.
Why the End of the Bear Trend Feels Different This Time
Ivan on Tech: Sometimes you just have everything against you. For example, you have a new bear trend, everything is against you, and no matter what good news you have, you're still going to dump. But sometimes, at the end of a bear trend — and we have been trending down since October, it's been quite an insane fall — things become easier. More and more people in the world are seeing Bitcoin as a cheap alternative to the hyped investments they made, such as AI.
And AI is going to struggle because AI is meeting government for the first time. AI has been in la-la land — just develop AI, no rules, no regulation, you develop, you develop, you develop. And then what happened on Friday? Anthropic had to turn off their model because the US government, Trump, said we have export controls over you. So AI, I think, is going to struggle over the coming quarters because they are now having a date with the government.
And listen, the government and the average person hate AI. Overall, when you look past what is being spoken on Twitter — everyone's so excited on Twitter — you look at the average person, they hate AI. They hate it. They want to tax the hell out of Elon. They hate all this new tech, the new tech coming out. They lose their job. They hate it.
The first step is the blocking of Anthropic. Basically, they have to remove the model because the US wants to ensure that Chinese and other nationalities don't get access to it. So that's one dimension. The other dimension is the class war that will be quite big in the coming quarters as we get closer to the midterms, and especially next year as we get into the presidential race. One of the big questions is going to be who is the most against AI, because in order to be in power, you need the vote from the average person. The average person hates AI. They're getting replaced. They don't want anyone to get rich from AI. So you will have politicians attacking AI more and more and more.
This is a very important thing to follow overall, because Bitcoin — now within the buy zone, around the 200-week Moving Average — is still cheap even though we are in a bear trend. And when you look at what's going to happen with sentiment, what's going to happen with the AI trade, it is in my opinion living its last few months. Then the AI bros will have to figure out something else.
Especially when you look at how angry people are at Elon Musk when he became a trillionaire on Friday when he launched SpaceX on the stock exchange. The average person hates Elon. They don't want to see this money flowing around, people getting rich from tech, from AI. And SpaceX, by the way, has more to do with AI than space. Yes, they have rockets, they have all of that, but a big part of the valuation is xAI, because xAI is part of SpaceX also.
So the left will target AI bros next. The Democrats and the left parties across Europe and other countries have a perfect narrative now. If I were a bit of a socialist, I would really — this would be the golden age. We have the perfect villain: trillionaire Elon Musk, all of these AI bros. They think they control the world. They just take what you've written online. They take the collective human thought and they make money from it, and you are not getting anything. So you should vote for me. We're going to confiscate. We're going to have 50-plus percent tax on AI. All these dirty AI bros — who do they think they are without us?
I would be so successful if I were a left-leaning politician. Guys, for them it is a golden age.
Why This Is Bullish for Crypto and Privacy Coins
Ivan on Tech: If you have money, what's the solution? Crypto. Zcash, man. You need Zcash more and more than ever with this kind of tendency. The Zcash renaissance — the privacy coin. We're going to enter interesting times.
So all in all, the AI trade will end sooner or later. The AI stocks will not keep going up in the case where you have governments paying more attention and wanting to win elections by getting the average person on their side, because it's one person, one vote. How do you get the most people? Not by being pro-AI. If you're pro-AI, how many people do you get? You get Elon, you get Ivan on Tech, maybe some others. But if I'm against AI, I'm going to have tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands. You guys are scared about it. Come to me. Let's fix it. Let's tax the crap out of it.
So you understand? Crypto is going to shine. I'm so bullish about crypto. Now that we have this overall panic and AI coming and replacing people — people don't like seeing that money being made. There is going to be a backlash, a big fat backlash. The AI trade is coming to an end. The crypto trade is really just beginning later this year. That's number one.
Iran Peace Deal and Oil Prices
Ivan on Tech: Number two, we have Trump coming out creating a peace deal with Iran. Let's see if maybe it will get reversed tomorrow — with Trump, you never know. Today it's a peace deal, tomorrow maybe no peace deal. Markets are pumping for now. Markets are happy. But at the same time, you know how it is. This thing can break any second.
When we look at the commodity index, it does want to go into a bear trend on the weekly, and this index is tracking oil. Oil is going down a lot. Oil is falling a lot. Oil is coming back to the 80s, which is good. It was in the 90s last week. Now it is in the 80s, almost in the 70s. So overall, this is quite bullish for the markets — that oil is coming back down significantly. Not just going from 115 to 98. It actually went now to 81, probably going lower.
So overall, another bullish sign — if Trump does not mess it up. If it's not a pump and dump like with the current president. You just never know if it's just another pump and dump for the insiders or what it is. Hopefully not a pump and dump. Hopefully a real agreement, real peace.
The Prime Minister of Pakistan is confirming that — not sure how much weight it adds to our analysis, but anyway, he announces that the US and Iran have officially reached a peace deal and the official signing will take place on June 19th. So there are five days to mess it up for either side, intentionally or unintentionally. Anything can happen here. Be careful.
Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination. Okay, let's see. That's good. But who knows? Also, there is another player in the game — BB. What is BB saying? He's another player. He can push a few buttons, make a few calls. It's very complex. All of this geopolitics is very complex. We are humble. We just look at the charts. If charts are bullish, good. If they're bearish, bad — or good, if you're short, depending on what you do.
Extending the ceasefire between the US and Iran for 60 days. Begin 60-day negotiation. Removes US naval blockade. Let's see what's going to happen. I'm skeptical overall with anything with the administration. You never know. Today it's this, tomorrow it's something else.
SpaceX Going Public and On-Chain Trading Opportunities
Ivan on Tech: Let's speak about SpaceX and the fact that it is very good for blockchain overall. You can trade SpaceX on-chain. It's fantastic. At the same time, we told our members — we were actually live streaming around the time that SpaceX went public and the trading was at around 174–175. When you look at the Hyperwood trade, when you look at all other trades, pre-market trade was around that level. We said be careful. We're going to see how the thing opens up. We're not buying at 175.
For now it did retrace all the way to 161, and still it's too early to have a daily trend or a weekly trend. But if you look at the hourly trend, if you have the money line, you could trade on the hourly trend if you zoom in more. It's good that now it's retracing. Things are happening. We have exchange of stocks. We'll be monitoring, but overall let it settle a bit more. Things have to settle a bit more.
Still, SpaceX is big news. We need the news to die down a bit. Today everyone is excited. Tomorrow there are more things, other news. So the news cycle has to move on a bit. When the news cycle has moved on, you will have real opportunities. Let the news cycle take a bit of a turn and you will be surprised what's going to happen.
Market Overview: Bitcoin, Zcash, Near, Solana, Ethereum
Ivan on Tech: Let's check the overall market. We have Bitcoin plus 1%. Zcash — Zcash plus 15% over the last 24 hours and 4% since the candle started. 15% — probably because people are seeing how the left is after Elon. Bernie Sanders saying that we should grill Elon alive, more or less.
And here's the thing — they all understand that a trillion dollars for Elon's net worth is not just money laying around. It's not like you can take the trillion dollars and do something with it. It's his company valuation. Valuation is based on future performance. It's not like he can sell it. Should he start selling stock, the stock is going to collapse minus 90% instantly, because the valuation is in Elon still working, still being present, still contributing. Should the market feel that Elon is suddenly gone, they're also going to dump, and then it goes from a trillion to maybe 1 billion very fast. There's a financial market, and the leftists — they probably understand it, but for the play they don't say that. They say: look at this, he has one trillion. How much do you have? You have one dollar. This guy has one trillion and he is not curing world hunger with his trillions because he's dirty and greedy.
Zcash is feeling that. Zcash is protection against the socialist politician in real time. Fantastic.
Near is also pumping 12% over the last 24 hours. Also privacy. There you go.
Solana is back at $71. Let's see how the Solana chart looks. Overall, still looks a bit weak. It actually broke down. Hasn't even retested this breakdown. Overall the magnet is still here, but fundamentally — listen, the chart is most important — but at some point, as the new bull market comes, as the new cycle starts, people can speak about fundamentals. Fundamentally, Solana is leading when it comes to all of this trading. And we will actually be speaking about some gaming at the end of the show — gaming is on Solana. So it's going to be cheap. If it goes to 30, holy crap, we're going to be buying left and right. Let's see.
Ethereum — dead man walking. Not pumping yet. Not pumping yet. So be patient. You don't have to hurry. The bear trend is coming down quite fast here also. This is why I'm excited for crypto overall. Even though we are in a bear trend, we're still risk-off overall. But the situation is such that we don't need a big pump to go bullish on many things. We don't need a big pump on Bitcoin — we have to go to 84k. It's not a big pump. If you look at how it was a few weeks ago, it's coming down. In a few weeks maybe 74k.
Look here on ETH — to go bull trend, we just have to go to 2.2. It was at 2.2 like in the middle of May. So this is why it's time to be a bit more bullish. Avalanche — there's no cure for Avalanche. Zcash still bullish. Hyperliquid still bullish.
Pay attention to the vibe shifts. They are going to happen quite fast, especially as we get later into the year. But still, overall, we're still risk-off. Overall, the main goal is to protect capital. So be careful with alts. If your alt is in a bear trend, be extremely careful. But things are shining somewhere. The sun is coming up, warming up the snow. Maybe we see one flower. Something growing there under the snow. Let's see.
Kevin Warsh's First FOMC and the Iran Deal Connection
Ivan on Tech: We have some big news later this week with Kevin Warsh having his first FOMC meeting. I believe that this Iran peace deal has to do with the fact that Kevin Warsh needs to have bullish ammunition on Wednesday. On Wednesday he will have his first FOMC. He needs some ammunition. He needs to say that the conflict is over, we can print, something good is happening. So Trump needs to deliver a bit of a good environment.
But I don't know what is going on with the tariffs in the US. Do you still pay tariffs or what happened? Because Trump had tariffs, but then the Supreme Court cancelled the tariffs — that was the latest. But anyway, for Kevin Warsh to be dovish, you cannot have tariffs. You need to remove tariffs. Tariffs are inflationary. Tariffs are paid by the consumer. No matter what Trump says — guys, you pay the tariff. In the US, you buy something from abroad, you pay the tariff. It's inflationary. This money you could have spent elsewhere.
So this is going to be very interesting to see how the new Fed chair is going to handle his first speech. Is it going to be bullish? What's going to happen?
He also enters the role after disclosing meaningful crypto-related exposure. I don't think it really matters too much. He cannot be pumping these things if everyone knows he has a hundred million there. He cannot say, "Hey guys, buy Polychain and Polymarket, I'm very bullish." He cannot be direct. He could be a bit indirect. But I would imagine Kevin Warsh's main thing is to do a good job as Fed chair and be remembered in a good way. Otherwise, there are many other ways to make a lot of money in the world, especially if you have the connections he has. He can make a lot more without any kind of public pressure where the whole world is looking at him.
So I would imagine he's here to figure some way to bring prosperity to the average person, get the interest rate down in one way or another. But you need to do it credibly. If you do it in a non-credible way, everyone's just going to dump treasuries. It's going to be very bad for the US. So let's see what's going to happen.
Polymarket Odds on Rate Cuts and World Cup Trading Volume
Ivan on Tech: Let's check what Polymarket is guessing. First and foremost, Polymarket needs to update the picture because it's no longer Powell — we have Kevin Warsh. Zero basis points is the number one bet still — that the markets have that nothing is going to happen until the end of the year. They have 25 basis points at 16%, 50 basis points lower. So the market thinks that nothing is going to get cut. But you can still have a dovish message even though you don't cut. So that's going to be important — what the hell he's going to say when he's out there preaching.
Another interesting thing is that Polymarket is now bigger than Hyperliquid when it comes to revenue. They are bigger in terms of transactions, bigger in terms of everything. Why? Likely because of the World Cup. People love watching other dudes kick football.
Spain, Cape Verde, Belgium, Egypt. Who will win the World Cup? Let me know in the comment section. Our audience is overwhelmingly saying Spain. Interesting. You basically have Spain, France, Portugal, England — it's like the same top countries as four years ago. What has changed?
Interesting that they put it in the US because it's not really a good time zone for everyone who is actually interested. For Europe — football is very big in Europe and the time zone is so bad. They should not have put it in the US. If you want my opinion, put it somewhere where the audience is. Put it in France or something. They don't even call it football there — they call it soccer. Big shout out to Americans though. I hear that soccer — football — is growing a lot in the US. So let's see.
On-Chain Gaming: Kintara on Solana
Ivan on Tech: Some general industry news. You have a bit of gaming coming back. I see for example this thing — Kintara. Anson was shilling it. I did see it also. There is something with this gaming. I'm a bit hurt in the brain from Runescape, from Habbo Hotel, from Tibia when I was growing up. I do get excited when I see this.
Now, will this be another pump and dump? All gaming projects sooner or later they all go to zero — that has been the case in the last cycle. And still Bitcoin is bearish overall. So it is interesting that it is getting attention. At the same time, we're still risk-off, so be careful.
But maybe Guzman has something to play. He was playing Pixels before. You guys remember Pixels? This is like a new incarnation of it. And apparently people are making real money. Kintara 24-hour economy update: $50,000 earned by players. What do you do? You cut wood, you fish, you start. Man, we should maybe finish that game I started with AI. You guys remember I told you I was building a bit of a game with AI? It was quite interesting — my Runescape clone. I literally did it in like a few prompts. I had fire making, fishing, inventory — all kinds of stuff.
If gaming is going to come back, it would be crazy. Here's my thesis. Number one, we're still in a bear trend. This thing could go to zero very quickly. But overall, if you look from the bullish side — if I have these good memories and I'm interested, I'm thinking how many other guys who are also brain-hurt from the Runescape days and World of Warcraft and all these MMOs who now have money to participate. That's the bullish thesis. From the bearish side, Bitcoin is still down, everything is still bearish.
As far as I understand, it's an on-chain game on Solana. I told you we'd be mentioning a bit of gaming — it's an on-chain game on Solana.
So we're going to see if this bull market is really back or not yet, or if it's still a fake-out. Remember, all altcoins — especially small altcoins — they can go to zero very fast. Gaming coins can go to zero very fast. So risk-reward: explore more at your own risk, especially now that we are overall bearish. It's still protect-capital season. But at the same time, we're here to see the early movements. What is something going on? And potentially yes — I haven't seen too much during the bear market like this, some project coming out being discussed. Let's see.
Q&A: MiCA Regulation, Japanese Yen, NASDAQ Bull Trend
Ivan on Tech: So all in all, what is the conclusion? We have the Iran situation potentially under control, potentially a pump and dump from Trump. We're going to be monitoring that. Overall, Bitcoin around the 200-week Moving Average is cheap and good. But be careful because you see here it's a big resistance. Massive resistance. This could just be a retest before going lower into the buy zone. We're fine with both. If you want instant Valhalla, then wait for the bull flip. The bull flip is at 84k. If you have a bull flip on the weekly for Bitcoin, then the likelihood of us having instant Valhalla is very, very big. If you're still buying within the bear trend, be prepared for a bit of chop, a bit of sideways. But it is the 200-week Moving Average, and I love the 200 for Bitcoin — it's the best.
On to Q&A. Hello. MiCA regulation will come into force in July. When it comes to MiCA, Bybit is taking it extremely, extremely seriously, and I suppose everyone else is also, because MiCA is the global EU regulation for crypto. So all exchanges having EU clients will have to comply. But Bybit has already been doing that — even before the deadline. For example, if you are in the EU, you will get a bit worse experience. It is what it is. You will not have access to most things.
That's why if you are in the EU, you could go to Hyperliquid. The biggest winner with all of this EU regulation that is taking place is going to be Hyperliquid. The problem is going to be bigger for centralized exchanges. For example, with perpetuals, maybe it's going to be even more restricted. Bybit has restricted a bunch of perpetuals in the EU. So Hyperliquid is likely a solution. If you are in the EU, you probably have to learn more and more self-custody, more and more DEX, and create a journey outside of centralized exchanges. I think that's how it's going to be.
What do you think about the Japanese yen rate hike? Is it fully priced in? Impossible to know. We're now like two or three years into the Japan FUD with the Japanese yen carry trade. I don't care anymore. Before I was trying to analyze it. I just look at the trend. We see it. We react to it.
Oh man, look at the NASDAQ. NASDAQ open trading, pre-market trading. Holy crap. We're going to go to all-time high. Bull trend. Bull trend. Holy crap. I was checking about the Japanese yen and all I know is we're in a bull trend and this thing is mooning. NASDAQ is mooning. S&P mooning. Everything is mooning. Okay, that's it.
Don't worry too much. People worry so much. Think about it — we had the Japanese yen FUD. I remember already in like 2024 people tried to understand it. We even tried to understand it, and there were narratives that made sense. But as always with macro investing, even if you are right, it may just take like five years to unravel. And what happens? Everything changes. Your shitcoins go to zero. Stocks pump. Bitcoin enters a new bull market. And you're fully wrecked anyway.
That's why the number one red flag — if you see someone on Twitter who is giving you market analysis and they have "macro investor" or "macro analyst" in their bio, you have to run. Whatever they tell you, even if it makes sense, it's likely going to be wrong as hell. Because even if they're right, it can still take like five years. So all this macro stuff — in my experience of making money in this market — you more or less have to ignore it a bit. Yes, have it in mind, follow it a bit, check what's happening. Macro up, macro down — fantastic, Japanese yen carry trade, great. But don't make decisions based on it. Don't make decisions based on it if you don't have confirmation from the trend.
Now, for example, NASDAQ is bullish. The spot — Japanese yen carry trade, what people yell about — I don't see it here. It's up. And guess what? Let's say something bad happens — down. Okay, we're going to see a bear trend. The price we were at in the beginning of May — we don't even need a big fall. We just have to go back to May. And then we know it's bear. So that's the strategy. The best strategy is the mechanical rules.
Q&A: Bittensor, Four-Year Cycle, Solana, Compounding and Jurisdiction
Ivan on Tech: Bittensor — people ask about Bittensor TAO. I think we discussed it a few times. All in all, it is technically bullish, but it's kind of weak. It has a lower high trajectory. I wouldn't touch it until it goes above here, for example, showing that it actually wants to go into a bull trend. Technically it's bullish, but you see how weak it is. Go back at least where it started bullish and continue up. It doesn't look too good. Wait for it — wait for that yellow line I just showed you.
How is the four-year cycle overlap? Well, the four-year cycle is going on exactly like everything is going. Let me check that chart from the previous four cycles and see performance by year. It's exact, man. It's exact. We're like right above the average. So according to this, we should have another leg down quite close in time, and then bleed a bit until the end of the year, and then Valhalla. Exactly.
And the next halving — it makes sense, it wasn't 2024. We're in the pre-halving year. Next year is going to be the halving year. Bitcoin halving countdown — 2028. Yeah, it makes sense. Man, you start feeling old when you've been around for a few halvings. I remember the last one. I remember 2024. I remember 2020. I remember 2016. Holy crap. Time flies. I remember the halvings because this industry hypes them up so much. I remember exactly where I was in each halving. And it's scary because time flies and we become old. Where is the longevity research? They have to research faster. We need longevity ASAP.
What would your thinking process be around Solana and hype? Well, with Solana, I love it, but the chart is weak. It broke down. Maybe it can retest this level. But don't overcomplicate it. It goes bullish at 93k now. This is what I mean — overall, it's time to see the bullish side a bit more seriously, because Solana now just needs to go to 93 to go bull trend on the weekly, and it was at 93 like mid-May. So this is the beauty of the money line — it keeps you in the trend. It's very unlikely to have a fake-out. Although it could happen, it's quite unlikely. But then also it's quite fast to feel when the trend is shifting. So it's not like you're going to miss a lot of pump by just waiting for the bull flip, because you're going to be back to May basically.
Many people thought that this was the bottom. No. So either: when you know it is confirmed bull trend — number one — or if it goes here, because then it's so cheap I'm going to buy anyway. It has a lot of support here. It's not only that it's cheap, but it has a lot of support. That's why at 30 it has a lot of support. So likely it will bottom out here if it continues lower. But again, I don't know if it's going to continue lower. It's very likely to, but it's not a guarantee. Nothing is a guarantee. So we have a plan for both scenarios.
People actually get a bit upset — they say, "Ivan, what do you mean? Why don't you have just one scenario? Why are you hedging? Why are you covering your ass? Why do you have a scenario for both bull and bear?" And the genius of it is: you have to pick whatever happens. I don't know if we're going to go to 30. It's a very good likelihood, but I'm not 100% sure. If it does, we have a plan here. And if it doesn't, we have a plan here. It's the best, man. And people who are getting wrecked are only all-in on one scenario, because at the end of the day, we don't know what the market is going to do. That's why I'm telling you — we are the most humble channel. I'm telling you, I don't know what the market is going to do. But still, year in year out, quarter in quarter out, we make profit in this market without knowing what it's going to do.
Hyperliquid Performance and Member Trade Examples
Ivan on Tech: Let's check Hyperliquid. Bull trend. Fantastic. It got back, retested this previous resistance, and now flying very, very high. Very nice. Going to go to probably new highs. It's bullish. Everything is bullish. The strategy is to be bullish when it's a bull trend. It turned bullish here in March. It's up 77% since then. So the strategy is just to remain bullish because the chart is bullish. That's with Hyperliquid.
Let me share with you some recent wins from the Discord. We have Mois — fantastic short. We have Mooncat shorting — without knowing what the market is going to do, still massive profit extraction happening each and every day. Ted — fantastic long gold. Here's a loss. People ask about losses. Mois lost — by the way, part of the journey also. He was at around 80-plus percent at some point, did not take profit, did not have a take profit target. This is the problem — not following mechanical rules. When you enter a trade with mechanical rules, you learn them, you have a profit target, you know the strategy. He did not respect previous resistance. Lesson learned.
That's why the earlier you join, the more time you have to practice, because while the system is simple to understand, to get it into your daily routine it's going to take some time. You'll have to practice, as with any skill. Because your brain is so badly programmed now by years and years of listening to people that don't know what they're speaking about. By you thinking that, for example, you don't need a stop loss because you're smart and other people are dumb — they need the stop loss, but you're so smart you don't need one. You're going to get wrecked. Or you think, "I don't need a take profit target. I don't need a strategy for how to exit because I'm smart." You're going to get wrecked. It's natural human behavior. You have to work on your human nature. Absolutely.
SandDisk and the Money Scanner
Ivan on Tech: When you look at SandDisk — holy crap. This is the problem with holding cryptos in a bear trend when stocks are in a freaking bull trend. Look here. SandDisk is up since the bull flip — which everyone in Bullmania who monitored it got an email about — it's up 600%. 600%. Holy crap. This is the power of the money scanner. We scan in real time all stocks and then we tell you what's flipping bullish, what's flipping bearish in real time.
Let's see on the bullish ones what has been happening. SandDisk — here it is, 59. And this is without this pump that we see now with the pre-market. They have Sienna. They have Intel at almost 400%. So this is the power of monitoring the market in real time, using the money scanner, getting alerted when things flip bullish or bearish. It's the best way.
And then you compare that to what we just saw — you hold Avalanche, you hold Sui because of the business cycle. Holy crap. People have been holding Sui because they thought... I don't know what. But anyway, we're beating a dead horse. I'll be more gracious. I think everyone got the message. Now we're positivity. We're only positive and we're looking forward and upward.
And listen — assuming we're also bullish crypto, then all of those who've been fully wrong since October — we're going to actually be in agreement with them. Whether it is Tomley or whoever. I will love them in bull market. We're going to be in full agreement. Bull market is coming. So let's focus on positivity. The bull is fantastic.
Compounding, Jurisdiction, and Immigration
Ivan on Tech: Did you get out of Sweden? Yeah, several years ago. I'm out. If you are making money, it's not the best money environment. If you have no money, it's very good. If you need freebies, it's fantastic. But they need to fix a lot of stuff.
And it's the same if you are in Belgium, Netherlands — the risk-reward is not good. And also, you know that all capital compounds. So if you understand how much you lose by being in an unfavorable jurisdiction and then you compound it — let's say you lose an extra 10% per year — it compounds immensely over decades. But in many cases you lose 30, 40, 50, sometimes more percent per year. And imagine the compounding. So when you start thinking like that, you're like, holy crap — if you're successful, this could be tens of millions, maybe hundreds of millions of dollars over your lifetime. Maybe billions, depending on your success. But the thing is, with the compounding, even if you earn good, it can still be millions over your lifetime. Maybe tens of millions if you really look at the compounding. It's insane. So you have to be smart there.
You criticize immigration. You're an immigrant yourself. I don't criticize immigration, by the way. I think immigration is great. Free stuff is not great. Free stuff is not great. Immigration is great. I mean, I'm an immigrant all my life. Free stuff and immigration with no hard rules of integration — that is very bad. But of course, I love immigration. Look at Dubai, man. Dubai is 90% immigrants. It's great. But in Dubai, you have zero free. Zero. So overall, I think we're on the same page.
Too much free doesn't work. You need to have everyone immigrating — that's good. But the problem becomes when it's too much free and you get milked. That's not good. Because then it also becomes a prisoner's dilemma. Let's say you are in a country. You see successful people leave. Bum bum bum. Everyone leaving. And the politician wants votes. A few successful people leave — don't care. They need the freebie seekers because they can get tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of them. Simple math. The successful guys — one person, one vote. Ivan left. St. Larsson also left. Okay, it's two votes. We can bring in tens of thousands. It's tens of thousands of votes. Simple math. And then we milk the rest who are still here who still didn't move.
But guys, listen — this is not a political channel. I actually don't want to discuss politics. You guys asked about it. Otherwise we don't discuss. We are here kumbaya. Even if you disagree with me, my message to you is: I love you and we do kumbaya anyway. We do kumbaya here because you like crypto, I like crypto, we're in this market. You live where you want. I live where I want. Live and let live. I don't judge you. You don't judge me. Great. And we are working on a cross-partisan level here — bringing together people from both sides. We unite in our love for crypto, for the gospel of Satoshi, and for this fantastic movement.