Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's position, AI bubble risks, and altcoin market dynamics
Ivan on Tech presents a solo market analysis covering Bitcoin's current position, risks from the AI stock bubble, and altcoin trends.
Summary
Ivan on Tech delivers a wide-ranging market analysis arguing that Bitcoin is currently in a buy zone supported by the 200-week moving average, but that further downside of 20–30% remains possible over the next four to six months. He presents a detailed case that the S&P 500 has become dangerously concentrated in AI stocks — with the top 10 stocks representing 41% of the index — and that any AI sector selloff will drag crypto down with it before a rotation into crypto begins, likely in Q4. He also covers MicroStrategy's fundraising difficulties, Ethereum's declining relevance, ongoing on-chain investigations into Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, and the potential for privacy coins to lead the next altcoin cycle.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's Current Position and the Buy Zone
Ivan on Tech: Bitcoin is doing something very interesting right now. We're currently using the 200-week moving average as support. We've been speaking for the last few days about how we are likely in a position similar to where we were in 2022 — this is the end of the bear market, the last few chapters of the bear. But you have to be careful, because we likely have more downside in the immediate short term. The mindset still has to be more bullish. We need to be warming up to the bull thesis.
The reason I'm warning against more downside is, number one, timewise, we still have four to six months of pain. Now, that pain is not going to be as big as the pain we had before, where altcoins dropped 90%. Many of them are already down 80–90%. Bitcoin has also likely had the biggest fall behind it. Can we fall another 20%, another 30%? It's possible. But overall, the biggest fall is behind us. We fell 50% already from the top. We lost $60K in price. Maybe we lose another $10K, maybe another $15K. Somewhere around there would be perfectly expected. We're here within the buy zone, and we accumulate and we buy this cheap Bitcoin within the green, fantastic buy zone. Everything here in the buy zone is cheap Bitcoin.
The AI Bubble and Stock Market Concentration Risk
But the reason why we need to be a bit careful is because the AI bubble is becoming massive. It's becoming so big that you will have three different trillion-dollar companies getting publicly listed within the coming months. You have OpenAI now submitting their S-1, basically preparing to go public — that was the news from yesterday. You also have SpaceX, which will be released next week. And you have Anthropic going public also. We don't know the exact date, but it's going to be very soon within the coming months. They're all competing for liquidity. The reason they all have to go public at basically the same time is because there is competition between them over who will get the liquidity, because they need so much capital.
Next, you also have rising oil prices. Just as Arthur Hayes is saying, you have all of these different factors that really point to big risks in the stock market. The stock market right now is paradise — it's la-la land, and we've been riding it fantastically well. Just looking at Intel, it's up 32–33% since the bull flip on the money scanner. So we're enjoying the stock market gains no matter what kind of risks there are, because as soon as things go bearish, we're going to be risk-off in a big way, very quickly.
But many people — maybe some of you here — don't see the risks in the same way. Either you see all of the risks and then you don't participate in the upside, like we've been doing with all the different stocks, and you're concerned about the AI bubble — or you're just super bullish and you don't see the downside risk. The thing is, you can have both thoughts in your brain at the same time. The human brain can hold more than one thought. So you can both be bullish on the trend, be part of the stock market, ride the gains — because the gains are massive, whether it's Intel, whether it's SanDisk, all kinds of different ones that have been doing very well. At the same time, you can clearly see that this likely will not end well, because we have parabola after parabola after parabola.
Being in crypto since 2013, I know a thing or two about parabolas. Just like we said that gold bugs were going to learn something about the parabola when gold was mooning and then broke the parabola — the same thing is going to happen now with the stock boomers. At some point we will see the parabola break in many of these different stocks and AI companies. But we're not repositioning ourselves into some kind of risk-off position now, because everything is in a bull trend. Mentally, though, you have to be prepared.
So what needs to happen for crypto to come back? Likely another flash — not as big a flash as before, but some kind of other flash. Maybe it is in relation to the AI bubble popping. Maybe the bubble continues for another two or three times and then it pops. That's the thing with a bubble — you never know. You just have to ride it and exit when it goes bearish. That's it.
When you have such overinvestment — and it likely is overinvestment — there will be some kind of pushback, some kind of revert to the mean. Markets always revert to the mean. And Bitcoin and crypto is the logical next step for a lot of capital to go from AI into the next cycle, into the next pump. That is likely to be crypto later this year, because it's not like AI is just going to have money and more money and more capital and more investments and more pump forever. It always rotates. You have crypto, then you have AI, then from AI it's something else — likely crypto. You never have just one asset class continue to moon forever.
S&P 500 Concentration: More Extreme Than the Dot-Com Peak
So just keep it in mind as we progress through the summer. Many companies will have problems — they already now have problems. When you look at the S&P, it's not a company index anymore. It's an AI index with 493 additional companies. Most companies are struggling. If you remove AI from the equation, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are not doing well. With AI, they go all-time high after all-time high, but without AI, they're not doing well. So if AI has any kind of problem, any kind of disappointment — even not a disappointment, just that investors feel the money is too overheated and want to take a bit of profit — when AI goes down, the S&P 500 as a whole is going to tank. And imagine what crypto is going to do. Initially, crypto is going to dump like hell also. That's why we need to be prepared for the next leg down in crypto connected to this AI unwind that likely is going to happen within the coming months. But again, we don't predict the time. We will react when we see it on the chart.
Since the war started on February 27th, the S&P is up 7.3%. Remove AI stocks and the index is flat. The entire 2026 rally belongs to a handful of companies. The way the S&P works is that it is not equally weighted. It has 500 companies, but it's not like Microsoft or the big AI companies have just one five-hundredth each. No, it's weighted by market cap. So the bigger you are, the bigger is the share of your stock in the S&P. That's why it's heavily tilted towards AI companies.
Friday showed exactly what that means on the downside. The S&P 500 fell 2.6% — the biggest single-day drop since October 2025. The S&P without AI stocks moved 0.02%. The 400-odd companies that make up 60% of the index did nothing. The entire crash was AI stocks selling off. Now imagine this selloff continues for a week or two. It's going to get crazy for the stock market and for crypto. Crypto is also going to fall. That's why I'm saying be prepared for more downside. But then, as the next narrative for capital forms for the coming year, that's where crypto is going to shine.
The top 10 stocks now represent 41% of the S&P 500. The previous record was 27% during the dot-com peak. So we're now more concentrated than during the dot-com bubble. At the peak in 2000, the S&P fell 50% over the next two years, while the Dow Jones, which had less tech concentration, fell only 37%.
And here is where you need to have two thoughts in your brain at the same time. Could it happen like that with all of this AI? I think it could. Absolutely. Why not? AI is great, but it's not really replacing people in the way that was expected. It's still replacing people, and AI is used as an excuse to fire people all the time. But at the same time, you always have to compare the returns to the amount of capital invested. All of these hundreds of billions, all of these trillion-dollar valuations — what kind of return does the economy get in GDP? I don't think there's a clear answer to that. I don't think there is a clear answer that AI boosts GDP by any meaningful amount. Yes, it allows companies to be more efficient. Yes, it allows you to fire a few people. But the question is how many people are fired because of AI and how many are fired because AI is an excuse — and the CEO just says, "Listen, you're fired, but don't blame me. It was AI. AI fired you."
So while AI is replacing jobs and making companies more efficient, the question is what is that efficiency in comparison to the investments and the valuations? That's the biggest question. And also, the cost of AI is not low. It's expensive. Microsoft banned their coders from using Claude Code because it was too expensive. The tokens were too expensive. Microsoft just banned Claude Code for 100,000 engineers. They gave engineers Claude Code, they went nuts, they spent a bunch of tokens. Turns out it would be cheaper to hire someone to do the work. So it's a big question — how much are all these valuations overblown and overextended, and how much is the S&P going to retrace once we have fair pricing? Because AI is great. It's not going to go anywhere. But where is the fair pricing? We need to figure that out.
When you buy an S&P index fund today, you're not buying 500 companies. You're placing a concentrated bet on AI, whether you know it or not.
What Triggers the Crypto Bull Run — and the Clarity Act Delay
So to summarize: Bitcoin and stocks are super correlated in case of a drawdown. When stocks pump, Bitcoin doesn't pump. But when stocks dump, Bitcoin does dump. So should stocks have some kind of meaningful correction — let's say back to the flip level or something like that — Bitcoin is going to suffer. But I think it likely is the last pullback for Bitcoin, likely to the 40s, likely somewhere towards $45K–$40K, before Bitcoin actually captures the initiative and starts leading the bulls. Starts leading as the asset that is actually outperforming — outperforming NASDAQ, outperforming the S&P, outperforming everything. And all of this is shaping up to be in Q4.
All of this is shaping up so that until Q4, we have some kind of further flash. Maybe this thing pops with all of these IPOs. And then the question is: what's next? We need to put capital somewhere. Let's dust off Bitcoin. Let's pull it back into the front. Let's get the media to speak about Bitcoin, because now investors are excited again — they're excited because they can buy cheap. Bitcoin is very cheap. It's also a fresh narrative. You turn on the TV, you hear about AI, AI, AI, AI. At the end, you get burned out. You get investor burnout. You're not new. You're not early. But now, imagine if crypto starts being spoken about. A lot of investors managing big capital are going to think, "Holy crap, now I can be early. Let's run crypto back." And sometimes it's just that you need something else to run. The financial machine needs narrative after narrative.
And they're not passing the Clarity Act now. Why aren't they passing it? They're waiting. They're letting crypto bleed. They're letting crypto go down even more to become cheaper. They're not finished with the AI bubble yet. It's too early for them. They cannot rotate the money this fast. They're still in AI. So they're delaying the Clarity Act. Once they're finished with the bubble, they're going to rotate to crypto. There's going to be clarity. There's going to be everything. It's classic. It's classic.
So don't get surprised if we do see the crazy bulls come into crypto when you least expect it — because that's the whole idea. It's going to be when you least expect it. But we expect it. We expect it towards Q4.
Altcoin Cycle Dynamics — Who Gets Left Behind
Also, look here. You don't want to be the laggard — the laggard who is one cycle behind. Everyone who was in altcoins excluding Solana and memes got destroyed. Your blue-chip ADA, whatever you're speaking about — and the interesting thing is that all altcoin investors think that they know something that other people don't know. They think they're smarter than everyone else because they have the UTXO model, peer-reviewed papers. You know the song — peer-reviewed papers that ADA has been doing. They think they are above everyone. The same thing with any other L1 — they also think they're above everyone. So all of them got destroyed outside of Solana. Solana did very well. The trenchers with memes did very well. Everyone else fully destroyed. Maybe you love Avalanche, you love the subnets. Fully destroyed.
So what will happen now? A new class of people are going to be thinking this cycle that they learned their lessons and they're only going to be in Bitcoin from now on. Many people are going to be like this — no alts this cycle, just Bitcoin. And what happens? Bitcoin puts in maybe 1.5 to 2x. Maybe it goes back to $120K–$150K. And alts go absolutely ballistic. This is classic crypto. You always leave the laggards behind. We've been speaking about this several times on this channel.
People who were against ETH in 2016–2017 became pro-ETH. They learned their lesson. They thought, "Okay, I was against ETH in the beginning. I was a Bitcoin maxi. Now I'm pro-ETH." But then Solana came. And ETH doesn't do anything. Solana goes ballistic. Next, people who are in Solana now — many are going to be rotating to Solana or memes. Not a guarantee that it's going to be the best performer, because it's the last cycle's playbook. Maybe it is other things. We need to see the trend. But it's always like that. Everyone is learning the lesson and then next cycle something different happens.
If I'm to guess, we will have either privacy solutions or some kind of new narrative. You always have to be open to new narratives. With memes, no one knew that memes were going to be big before the bull market started. So just be open-minded. Look at the trends. What is in a bull trend?
The Case for Privacy Coins as the Next Narrative
Privacy solutions could be interesting because it's a nice narrative for crypto. We need to take crypto back to cypherpunk ideals. I really love that. Now whether it's Zcash, whether it's Monero, whether it's something else — I think as an industry, we are ready now to push privacy. We weren't ready just two or three years ago, because we did not have the governmental support that crypto has right now. We just needed to have Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana — all these big projects — to be accepted by the regulators as not securities. Now they are accepted by the regulators. So now we can take the next step.
They accepted our big stuff. Okay, let's now push privacy. Because pushing privacy five years ago would have been too crazy. People thought Bitcoin was shady. Now you push Zcash or Monero — it's too crazy, man. But now that BlackRock is in Bitcoin, Bitcoin is like the S&P. No one debates Bitcoin. Bitcoin is fully legit, fully clean. Everyone loves Bitcoin. The same is with ETH and the big caps. Okay, now let's push it a bit further. Let's push the Overton window even wider. Can we push privacy? Why shouldn't citizens have private money? What's the problem? Let's have those debates.
So just ideologically, I love that push that is happening in crypto. And we also have a window of opportunity in the US where the administration is pro-crypto. Maybe potentially we have some political power to push privacy on a political level also. Wouldn't it be nice if they did some kind of bill where they said, "Listen, Zcash — we love Zcash. It's okay. If you use Zcash, good for you." The world is now ready for privacy. For that reason, I would be amazed if privacy continued to do well. It would be so good for crypto. We also need to decouple from MicroStrategy and all this Wall Street stuff. We need to have something that's pro-crypto, and secret money is fantastic. Let's see if that's going to be one of the narratives.
As for everything else — whether it's ADA — we will have to see what trends. ADA now has one of the worst charts. I wouldn't touch it with a 100-meter pole. It needs to go to bull trend. ADA has a very bad chart. Stay away from it until it goes bull. People are saying, "But it's so cheap now. Shouldn't you buy?" It can still go lower. Look at Avalanche — it just goes lower. Look at Polkadot — they just go lower. My goal is not to buy at the very bottom. My goal is to buy it and have it go up a lot instantly, without me bleeding. I don't want to waste capital on some bleeding thing, hoping and praying for some altcoin to return. If it goes bull, then the chances are high that it just continues. That's when it's the signal for us. Now the signal is to stay away.
Cardano and the Charles Hoskinson Investigation
And also, there are now investigations on Twitter. People are looking into Charles Hoskinson and what he did with the money, because there are many questions. A May 2025 tweet claims Charles sold 1.5 billion ADA in the 2021 hype cycle, plus sent 200 million to Polkadot's Gavin Wood. Rather than just take that at face value, someone checked the chain — tracing and tracing and tracing.
There's another guy doing research — Thomas Brazil. Follow him on Twitter because he is digging into Charles's dirty laundry like never before. He says: "I've spent most of yesterday collecting the original Isle of Man filings relating to the earliest Cardano Foundation, trying to be as charitable and document-driven as possible." So this guy is smart. He's going after Charles's dirty laundry, but he's saying, "Guys, I'm not accusing. I am just asking questions. I'm not accusing. I am charitable and document-driven." I love it. You need to be like this. So all of the Cardano fans relax a bit. And this guy is just asking, "Hey guys, let's check it. We're not accusing, but we have to check."
Trying to be as charitable and document-driven as possible, the records appear to show that the original Isle of Man foundation involved Charles Hoskinson, Jeremy Wood, Ken Kodama, and a corporate service provider. And there's a big question: what happened to 1,000 Bitcoin? The Swiss Cardano Foundation financials and historical materials reference an earlier Isle of Man predecessor foundation and show that it received approximately 1,000 Bitcoin. The question is: what happened to the 1,000 Bitcoin that historical records indicate were allocated to that foundation? Perhaps there's a straightforward answer. If so, Thomas Brazil says he would love to see the documentation.
So he's like Zach XBT but focused only on Cardano. He's a distressed and special situations investor, bankruptcy, crypto litigation. Let's see — did he get burned in investments? He says: "I am not alleging wrongdoing. I am asking for documentation. Who controlled the Isle of Man Foundation? What became of the 1,000 Bitcoin? How were the development agreements negotiated? And what governance protections existed for other purchasers?"
Zero. That's with crypto — you don't even have to ask. What governance protection exists for the token holder? You think it's bank deposit protection? Token holders have no protection. They are plebs who hodl, or bag holders — and some of them are historic bag holders. Absolutely historic in Avalanche. Everyone who holds Avalanche should get the Guinness World Record, because they are now in historic price discovery to the downside. No one has ever been this low in Avalanche price. Most coins — it's not a bank. There's no protection. There's no regulation. So what protection? Likely zero.
MicroStrategy's Fundraising Problem
MicroStrategy — we need to check what's happening with Strategy. Are they still below $100? Still below $100, but coming up. MicroStrategy has until the end of the week to raise money. To raise money, they have to get to $100. They're still below $100 — at $96, and yesterday they were at $97. If they're below $100, they cannot raise anything. So the market is maybe saying we need more yield — that 11% is too little.
If MicroStrategy cannot get this thing above $100 until Friday, this is going to be the first month where they raise zero. So let's keep an eye here. Maybe they have some emergency announcement with some special reward or special yield so people buy it. But yeah, something to keep in mind.
And look here — this is something very important. Just about any company can raise money at 11.5% if they wanted to. 11.5% is a very high yield. And normally when you pay that big of an interest, it means that you don't really have a lot of interested parties that want to lend to you. In this case it's not lending, it's preferred stock — but even with that, 11.5% is super high. It's an incredibly high hurdle rate to overcome no matter what you do with the money. There is literally no business that can generate that kind of return through business activity alone. The hope is that Bitcoin is going to moon, so it's going to be okay — they can pay the 11% per year. But it's very high.
Just because Michael Saylor calls this innovative doesn't make it smart. Sure, Bitcoin can go up more than 11% per year. It also may not. I just want to reiterate that there's nothing magical about MicroStrategy. It hurts our industry when people think it's an infinite money glitch or some kind of innovation that is sucking up all fiat in the world. If you create a company, if you're publicly listed and you say you have 11% yield, you're going to attract a lot of capital — but you obviously need to have some kind of credible story behind it, because there is risk that you go bankrupt. In this case, the story is that Bitcoin is going to moon.
This is not new. This has been done in the past with other assets. For example, this has been very common with real estate. You have developers offering high yield to raise money and then build out real estate. You have giant corporations doing it. Look at Evergrande in China. This is very common. So the more people understand that there's nothing magic here — it may or may not work out — the better. If you have that mindset, then it's fine. But I'm nervous when people have the mindset that it's an infinite money glitch. Then I'm nervous.
If everyone in crypto would say, "Listen, he's raising money at a very expensive, crazy rate, and the strategy is that we buy Bitcoin and maybe Bitcoin moves enough so we can get more money from Bitcoin to pay it" — okay, good. Then it's an enterprise. It's a business plan with risks, and we see it for what it is. It may or may not work. It's not an infinite money glitch. It's not magic that sucks in all fiat in the world. It's not hyperbitcoinization either.
They could buy assets with the proceeds, or they could reinvest in their business, or they could even buy back their own stock. Any company could do it — they could raise at this high rate and then do all kinds of stuff. Many of these investments would outperform Bitcoin. But again, no one does this because 11.5% is a massive hurdle rate. Just something to keep in mind.
Technically they could omit payment, but practically I don't think they can. If they do, all of these holders who bought STRIFE as a replacement for their bank account are going to lose so much money, because the reason STRIFE is still at $96–$97 is because of the dividend. Should it disappear, the market price of this is going to tank. So technically they could omit payment. Practically, they can't.
Ethereum's Declining Relevance
Welcome to the club, ETH — you have Internet Explorer and you have no cam. It is looking more and more like that. Personally, I'm using ETH less and less — whether it is for payments, receiving payments, sending payments. It is more on Solana, more on Tron. When it comes to trading stuff, new coins are not on ETH. There's not too much trading anyway because we're in a bear market. But if you compare to 2020–2021, everything was on ETH. Even in the bear market, people were minting some kind of NFT or something. It was early days. There was a lot of experimentation. All of the DeFi was super new. I remember — oh my god — people did so much on ETH. Now I don't know what's happening there. I don't use it too much myself.
MetaMask is unveiling a self-custodial wallet for agentic DeFi trading. The new wallet allows agents to execute transactions across DeFi protocols while operating within user-defined spending limits. Let's see — AI agents are going to trade on ETH in MetaMask. I like the innovation. At the same time, the users of MetaMask — most of them are at the level where they may even lose their seed phrase. For them, number one is to get people to back up the seed phrase and not get phished. That's the main focus I would be having if I were product manager of MetaMask. I would actually be focusing more on the basics, because okay, you have AI agents that can now go to DeFi protocols — but most people barely do the basics, and now you're going to let an AI agent loose?
Maybe AI agents can use MetaMask because the UI is so complex you need agents to use it. I would say it's a bit of the wrong focus. I would be focusing more on making it smooth as hell, simple, dealing with all these L2s. But you want to make it simple, and you're on ETH, so you have a million L2s. The user has ETH from ETH, from Base — a million different ETHs. You need an AI just for that.
Imagine the average user. If you've run any kind of software business, you know that the average user struggles with the simplest things. You send them instructions by email, they don't see the email. Login password — oh, you need to log in with Discord. Where is Discord? The average user cannot understand the basics sometimes. Running a business has also taught me something about support functions. It's so important. You have software, you use good support, and everyone in Bulmania says that we have the best support because we really invest in that. But it also made me a bit more relaxed — I can see how much people misunderstand in the world. Everyone misunderstands everything. That's why you need customer support.
And DeFi is also going to be part of your wallet where the average user barely knows how to back up the seed phrase or navigate between a million L2s. But anyway, I love the innovation. Maybe it's going to be great. Sometimes you're surprised how new things innovate. Let's see.
Q&A: Tom Lee and Ethereum
Ivan on Tech: Tom Lee just bought more ETH — his company, I think. He bought like a few hundred million, but nothing moved in the price. How does he buy and it's still down? Maybe he bought this week. I mean, I think his average price is like $3,800 and he's down like $10 billion or something. It's one of the biggest trading losses in history. But he's good — he's buying more. Just trend following would have saved him so much. Mechanical rules, Bulmania. You don't disrespect the bear trend.
This thing — let's see if it loses this support here. The next support is down at $1K. So it could lose another 30% easily. It's a bear trend. Be careful. Don't joke around with a bear trend.
For Tom Lee, it's okay, man. I don't think he cares too much. He has a narrative: buy as much ETH as possible. If it goes down, he himself is not hurt. It's his company — and it's not even his company, by the way. He's chairman there. They hired him. So it's not like he is the ultimate beneficial owner of the company. He's a hired man. He's a paid actor, in a sense — because he's on CNBC and Bitmine is known, and now Bitmine is known. I don't think he cares too much that it's down. They grow the treasury. He knows that eventually, potentially, it's going to come back.
But your situation is different. If you put your hard-earned money into Tom Lee's predictions that ETH is going to go to $60K, and it goes from $4K to $1.6K, and you miss all of the AI, you miss Intel up 300%, you miss SanDisk — what is it, like 30x — it's a big difference for you. For Tom Lee, if it comes back at some point, as long as he doesn't go bankrupt, he's going to be okay. Bitcoin is not going to go bankrupt. So for him, it's okay. He's actually probably up a lot. His compensation is massive in this deal.
Q&A: ETH Dominance and Altcoin Rotation
What ETH price do we see rotation to alts? Impossible to answer. All alts are going to have their own bull trends. ETH rotation to alts — I mean, maybe you can see ETH dominance, but we need ETH dominance versus other coins, not just Bitcoin. I'm not even sure the question makes sense, to be fair. For ETH to be the main altcoin from which everything rotates, it needs to be that you sell ETH, you go on Uniswap, you buy some other coin like Pepe or whatever. But now, because new coins are rarely on ETH — they're on Solana — maybe the more correct question is: at what point will Solana gains rotate to altcoins? Because you need the DEXes. A lot of this rotation happens on DEXes. You have Solana and then it rotates.
Also, it's kind of a myth that capital rotates in a clean sequence. Sometimes coins pump before ETH does. If you look at last bull market, the early days — memes were part of it from the beginning. So it wasn't that you wait for ETH and then rotation happens. Memes were going nuts already before that.
Let's actually look at Pepe. The earliest chart — late April 2023. Pepe already went parabolic. And then it went super parabolic in March 2024. Was that some kind of rotation? Maybe you can say the big parabolic in Pepe happened after some kind of setup. But you know, for us it's too complex. I don't know how to trade this. It could also be that nothing happens and it was only Pepe. It wasn't like Avalanche or the other stuff did as well as the meme coins. So it's not my way of trading. If we see bull trend in other assets, fantastic. That's the signal. Where the money comes from is too complex and too unreliable. Just look at the bull trends. That's it.
Q&A: SanDisk, MU, and Not Regretting Missed Trades
Don't regret missing SanDisk. Don't regret missing anything, because there's something else that pumps every day. Every day something else pumps. SanDisk we covered in Bulmania many times — fantastic bull trends. And this thing wants to open higher. Holy crap. MU wants to open higher. Jason speaks about this all the time in his daily analysis in Bulmania. We have a Chinese quant called Jason doing daily analysis. MU he's been speaking about a lot. But don't — it's a parabola. Let's see where it ends. Crypto is going to have the same parabolas. Crypto is maybe even going to have bigger problems when it's time for crypto. So keep an eye on that.
Q&A: IOTA
What's happening with IOTA? If I'm to guess, it doesn't do too well. Holy crap. Alltime low. Guys, this is the problem with buying something cheap — it can become way cheaper. You don't touch things in a bear trend. It's a bear trend since 2024. Be careful. It had a bit of support, it broke support. Two lower lows. The historic pleb is a fact because no one has held it lower. Guinness World Record is a fact.
Q&A: Which Privacy Coin Will Lead the Rally?
Ivan, I agree privacy would be the next narrative, but who do you think will most likely lead the rally — Zcash, Monero, Dash, or maybe something new?
Any of these — we don't know. No one knows who's going to lead the rally. But you see, for example, that Zcash is bullish on the weekly. It's been bullish on the daily before this recent dip it had. Monero is bearish. So who's going to lead the rally? You see yourself — right now Zcash is leading. Monero is bearish.
No one can tell you who's going to lead the rally next year. It's impossible, because it's not based on tech. It's not based on anything you see publicly. It's based on how the teams are operating, what their market maker is, how they push, who are the insiders, who decides to pump it to ignite the pump, et cetera. So I don't know who's going to lead it. I don't try to know either.
Is Monero in bear trend? Yes. Is Zcash bullish? Over-complicating it. Dash — bear trend. So that's it. You literally see it. If it's green, it's going. If it's red, it's not going. That's it. Maybe it's going to change in the future. Maybe Monero is going to pump and Zcash not. But I don't know who's going to be leading some kind of industry narrative next year. And I don't try to guess. No one knows. No one can tell you. Anyone who says they know is scamming either themselves or you or both of you.
I don't know who's going to lead. And I don't have to know. That's the best thing about mechanical rules. You don't have to know. Just look at the trend. You get alerted in real time if you have the money scanner. You can add all of the privacy coins to your watch list. When you add a heart on them, you're going to be notified in real time when they flip bullish or they flip bearish. So you know — now Zcash bearish, Monero bullish. You know it in real time.
Be humble. People tell me, "Ivan, you need to be more humble. You take too much credit." Well, we do take credit because otherwise people don't know who to listen to. But also, my strategy is based in humbleness, because I don't know who's going to be the winner. I'm not Baba Vanga. I don't run the market. I just see what's bullish or bearish in real time. And that's the best.
If you see someone on Twitter who has "macro investor" in their bio — run. Macro investor means they can say anything. Any BS — macro this, macro that. There are a million macro charts. You can look at this chart or you can look at another chart. This chart says bullish, the other chart says bearish. And this chart says bullish, and the market became bullish — two years later. Okay? Like the ISM said bullish in October. Your coins went down 90%. ISM, business cycle, all of that was bullish in October. At some point the business cycle is going to be bullish and the market is going to pump. So they get to tell you they've been correct. It's just that you're down 90%. Be humble, guys.
Q&A: Solana Price Target
Can Solana get to $30 if Bitcoin has that visit? I mean, from last week or two weeks ago, we're halfway there. If you think about it, we were at around $100 a few weeks ago. We just need another similar dump and then you have Solana at $36, which — listen, at $36 it starts with a three, so it's basically $30. We just need another fall like during the last few weeks. Can it happen? I think it can happen. Solana bag holders, we're coming for you. If Bitcoin dumps, it's very likely.
Now, if we're wrong — okay, don't worry. If it goes bullish, we're bullish. We're going to go from saying Solana to $30 to Solana to $200. If we go bull trend on the weekly, I'm bullish for Solana. But now it's bearish, and we just need a similar fall here for this call to come through — because we called it back in January. We said it's going to go to $30 with highest likelihood. Again, likelihood doesn't mean guarantee. Don't attack me. If it doesn't happen, we go bull. All markets have no guarantee. Any thesis is a thesis and you have to change your mind if you're wrong. So if we're wrong, we go bullish. Now it's bearish.
Q&A: Bitcoin Cash
Just make sure you hold a good bag of Bitcoin Cash. What's happening with Bitcoin Cash? I didn't check Bitcoin Cash in a long time. It still has some believers. Oh, guys. Holy crap. Falling knife like there's no tomorrow. So yeah, wait for bull trend. Even if you're a believer, why lose money when you can wait for bull trend? At least on the daily, the daily bull trend is quite close at $263. Yeah — bare market altcoins, no mercy. No mercy.
Q&A: ONO
What do you think about ONO? Let's check ONO/USDT. Okay. It's bull trend and has big volume — potentially a market maker accumulating, preparing to drive the price up. Not too bad. Again, it's all probabilistic, meaning it could easily just go down into bear trend. So you have to set a stop loss. Be careful. You need to set a stop loss here because if Bitcoin goes down, this thing likely goes down also. But overall it's bull trend, it's keeping the consolidation, it has volume. Not bad.
On the daily — clinging in there, hanging in there in the bull trend. Big volume. A lot of coins changing hands. Someone is accumulating. You see they accumulate, then they relax, they accumulate, then they relax, so it doesn't go up too much. You see these volume bars — they accumulate a lot, but they don't drive the price high. Something interesting happening here. Keep an eye — bull trend. Fantastic. But on the brink of going bear, but there is a bit of volume support. Let's see what's going to happen. Overall looks quite good to be early. But you have to have a stop loss here. Have a stop loss because this thing can flash down. If a bubble pops, this thing is going to flush like there's no tomorrow. Your net worth is going to go to zero if you trust it too much.
Q&A: Pangolin (PANGO)
You're still holding Pango? Pango 100. I mean, with the one I got for free from the airdrop, I'm holding it because I'm not liquidating — that's a disrespect to the team that gave me free Pango. But from a trading perspective, Pango is bear, and the same analysis applies to it. We were bullish when it was bull. When it started to go down, we're not bullish. Just like with anything. We're bullish when things are bullish on the trend, and then we're bearish. When the trend has shifted, we change. That's the whole definition of being in crypto. You have to be bullish in the bull. You have to be bearish in the bear.
From a trading perspective, Pango is bear. You got to stay out when it's bear. But because I got the airdrop, because I know the team — the airdrop part I'm not going to dump. I like Luca. I think Luca is going to come back in a big way. Let's see what's going to happen. But you just need to trust the price. The price now is not telling you that it's coming back. It needs to go to bull trend. That's it. And when it's bull trend, we may see something like this again. Bullish in the bull, bearish in the bear. Simple.
Some people want me to be bullish in the bull and then go down with them minus 99% in the bear. We're not doing it. We are professional traders. We take this very seriously. Our job is to be part of the bull, not part of the bear. If you are in Bulmania, you know it's short season now because Bitcoin is bearish on daily and weekly. Short season has been open since last week. Simple — in markets, if you cannot adjust, you're going to be cooked. Very much.