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BITCOIN: IT IS REPEATING!!!!! (My strategy 2026) | Ivan on Tech Transcript

Polished transcript · Ivan on Tech · 3 Jun 2026 · @maverick

Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's price action and outlines his 2026 accumulation strategy

Ivan on Tech presents a solo livestream analyzing Bitcoin's current market structure, the MicroStrategy preferred stock situation, and the emerging privacy coin narrative.

Summary

Ivan on Tech delivers a solo market analysis session covering Bitcoin's sharp decline to the $65,000 support level and what he believes comes next. He argues that a fast "elevator down" into the $40,000–$50,000 buy zone — near or below the 200-week moving average — would actually be the most bullish outcome for the cycle, as it would end prolonged sideways suffering and set up a clean recovery. He raises serious concerns about Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy preferred stock (STRK), noting it has fallen to $96 with a dividend deadline approaching and dwindling cash reserves, and argues Saylor may be forced to raise the dividend — which Ivan reads as a warning sign of deeper structural problems. He also outlines what he sees as the key narrative for the next bull cycle: privacy coins, particularly Zcash, framing privacy as "the final scaling frontier of crypto."

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin's "elevator down" is the bullish scenario: Ivan argues that a fast flush to the $40,000–$50,000 range, near or below the 200-week moving average, is actually the best outcome for bulls — it ends the prolonged bleed, triggers capitulation, and sets up a clean recovery. A slow bounce from current levels would only extend the suffering.
  • The 200-week moving average is Ivan's key accumulation zone: Historically, touching or going slightly below the 200-week moving average has been a strong risk/reward entry. Ivan gives his "blessing" to buy at or below it, while cautioning that being underwater for several months is possible, as happened in the 2022 cycle.
  • Two paths to a bottom — price-based or time-based capitulation: Ivan explains that markets bottom either through a sharp price crash (his preferred scenario) or through extended sideways grinding until sentiment resets. He sees both as valid but strongly prefers the faster price-based route.
  • MicroStrategy's STRK preferred stock is under serious pressure: With STRK at $96, a dividend capture deadline in 12 days, only $900 million in cash, and $1.7 billion in annual dividend obligations, Ivan argues Saylor is in a structurally difficult position. If Saylor raises the dividend to attract capital, it accelerates cash burn. If he cuts it, STRK could collapse toward the value of common MSTR stock.
  • Bitcoin has no yield — and that is Saylor's core problem: Ivan draws a sharp contrast between Bitcoin (no native yield) and ETH or SOL (which generate yield through staking). He argues that Saylor's "Bitcoin yield" metric is a marketing invention, and that anyone who didn't immediately call it out is repeating the mistakes of BlockFi and Celsius depositors.
  • Privacy coins, especially Zcash, are Ivan's top narrative for the next bull cycle: He cites Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's comments on the need for optional private transactions in crypto, and frames Zcash as "Bitcoin minus Saylor — 99% cheaper and private." He sees the current political environment under the Trump administration as a window to advance privacy coin adoption before a potentially less crypto-friendly administration arrives.
  • Don't anticipate chart patterns — wait for confirmation: Ivan warns strongly against front-running formations like double bottoms or triangles, drawing on his own experience since 2013. He argues that pattern anticipation is hope-based trading, and that the only valid approach is to wait for confirmation before acting.
  • Most altcoins remain in bare trends with no actionable setup: When asked about ADA, LINK, TIA, and other assets, Ivan consistently notes they are in bare trends with no bullish signal. He argues that holding bare-trend assets is a "mental prison" and that the correct approach is to rotate into assets showing confirmed bull trends, using a real-time scanner rather than narrative-based selection.

  • FULL TRANSCRIPT

    Bitcoin's current price action and the case for a fast flush lower

    Ivan on Tech: Bitcoin did something insane yesterday. It went all the way down to this support right here at $65,000. For now, at least, we're getting a bit of a bounce. This bounce — I would not hang it in the Christmas tree, as you say. This is not something to be proud of yet. We have a classic "stairs up for months" situation here: two monster moves up and then elevator down. Basically within two weeks we have fantastic big fat red candles removing all of the gains.

    Now the next step is very important. Should we break this support right here — and I think it is very highly likely that we break it — based on the elevator down, the fact that we are still above the buy zone, and the fact that we did see a lot of people becoming super mega bullish saying that this is the new bull market, I think the likelihood of us breaking this support is quite high.

    But at the same time, we're not dealing with feelings. We're not dealing with thinking. We're dealing with facts. And the fact will be that if we go below the support and actually confirm the support break, we have arrived in this very sweet buy zone where it's impossible to say exactly how low we're going to go. I think it's very likely we go to the 200-week moving average — likely a bit below, because normally we test the 200-week, we go a bit below it, we derp around here for some weeks or months, and then we find the bottom.

    Very important: we find the bottom and we recover. So the bullish story does start to come into the picture. This is key to understand — the bullish story is in fact coming more and more into the picture as we are seeing Bitcoin go down lower into the buy zone. I do want everyone to start thinking in terms of bullishness. Should we be here in the green zone, should we have another one of these weekly red candles, it would be fantastic for the bullish story.

    What you don't want — for the bulls — is that we go up here again, maybe retest, maybe go down, slow bleed, maybe then break a bit lower. You don't want that. You want a fast flash, a fast elevator down, so we can finally come into the buy zone. And then we can have the so-called green candle therapy.

    The big mistake is to think that this was it. This was the biggest sin that bulls have done — it was very, very bad. Being euphoric, thinking that you're smarter than the cycle, thinking that you're smarter than the market, that you've outplayed it. That was a big, big sin and it will not go unpunished. Now the bulls are getting punished bigly. I understand if you at least had a higher high, but a higher high would mean going above the previous high. Bulls did not do that. Instead they said, "It is bull market," blah blah blah. All of it was fully wrong — 100% wrong, very, very wrong. And we said: as long as we are bearish on the money line, it's fully, fully wrong.

    What would be correct is that should we go closer to the 200-week — that is a very nice price. Should we go below the 200-week — that is a fantastic price, and we could very well go below. But it's okay, because if you start building positions at around the 200-week moving average, normally it's very, very good. In many cases in bear markets we go below the 200-week, but it's kind of part of the game.

    The two strategies for playing the next bull market

    Ivan on Tech: You basically have two options. Option one: you can wait until the money line turns bullish. Very soon — especially if we break down — this thing is going to drop from around $91,000 probably to like $78,000 or $79,000 or something like that. We'll have to see how it drops. But should we actually start going lower, the money line flip will also drop significantly. So that's option number one to play the bull.

    Option number two is to start accumulating around or below the 200-week moving average, because normally it is a good price. You may be underwater for some months — like here, for example, we went to the 200-week moving average and then we were below it for quite some time. But still, it was a good price. All in all, it was okay. It was not too bad.

    Basically, you got a signal here at $22,000 in June 2022. We went all the way to $15,000. So you had a loss from $22K to $15K. But it's okay. In the grand scheme of things, it's okay — especially if you kept buying and DCAing below the 200-week. You basically have my blessing to buy below the 200-week. At or below the 200-week, it's not bad. It's actually very smart. Normally it's very smart when you look towards the big picture.

    Reviewing the 200-week moving average across previous bear markets

    Ivan on Tech: Let's check the previous bears. Here we just touched it — we didn't even go below it. So at the 200-week, if we spend time there, that's also smart — very, very smart. We dipped a bit below it here. But the 200-week normally is a very smart risk/reward price. Very smart risk/reward price.

    Someone mentioned a double bottom. Could this be a double bottom — like you go like this and then you go like this? It could, but the thing is, you don't know it until we break the neckline. Until we break the neckline, you don't know it. So when you try to front-run a formation, you're not trading correctly. It's hope-based trading. If you see, "Oh, maybe this will turn into a double bottom" — you need confirmation of the pattern. Then yes. Should we go here to like $62,000 and then go back to $82,000 or $83,000, then yes — likely this is a double bottom. That would confirm it. But to anticipate patterns is not how trading works.

    Also, many people said that the previous move was a double bottom, and as you can see it even confirmed and played out, because the size of the move was basically the size from the neckline to the bottoms. So you can say we already had a double bottom — but this would obviously be a larger one. I don't predict patterns. I think it's not smart. You're going to lose a lot of money if you try to predict. I'm telling you that from experience because I've done it all. I've been in crypto since 2013. I've been predicting, front-running patterns because I really needed the thing to go up. "Oh, maybe it's a double bottom. Maybe it's a triangle. Maybe it's this. Maybe it's that. Please, please, please, please — let me open the TA textbook. Where is a bullish pattern? Okay, this one. Let's see. It looks... maybe it is. Yes. Yes. I think it's close enough." And then — bam — another flush down.

    I've been there. I know what you're thinking. But be cool. Double bottom needs confirmation, and then the size of the move is the distance from the neck to the bottom. That's the size. That's why people said the previous one was a double bottom — they were correct. We did play out. We did get a pump like that to $83,000. And now we're going lower.

    I want to remove your hoping because I see you're thinking wrongly. But should we go to the neckline of this double bottom — the neckline here — then yeah, if it plays out, that would push us into a bull trend even at this level. So some hopeium. It's good to have some hopeium if you know that it's Fugazi.

    The money line versus the moving average as entry signals

    Ivan on Tech: Another question is about the average price. The moving average is moving up. So all in all, you have this thing moving up. When we had this dump here, it was at $57,000. Now it is around $61,000 and it is moving up through time. But you only want to act when you actually touch it or you're below it. Otherwise, you're wasting capital. You're wasting money.

    We discussed it yesterday — if you went super bullish on Bitcoin here in February, well, your money should not have been in Bitcoin anyway. It should have been in AI. It should have been in basically just the boomer stones — S&P 500, NASDAQ — because you waste so much time just grinding sideways when there are big bull trends happening elsewhere. As this guy is saying, it's a tough pill to swallow, but Bitcoin has been lapped several times as the better trade over the past couple of years and especially the last couple of months.

    So what you want to do is enter when the likelihood of Valhalla is very, very big. If you don't really touch the moving average, you don't go below it — the likelihood of Valhalla is not that big. Yes, maybe in a year it's still going to be okay. But you want to be like this: you see bull, bullish, and then — boop — Valhalla. Your money works for you instantly. That's why ideally the money line is what you need to be looking for. The money line is going to be the Valhalla signal. When the money line is bullish, it is Valhalla and your money works for you from day one.

    The money line is actually a bit better than even the moving average in this case, because here you got a signal but your money was not working for you for like half a year, and then it started to work for you. Meanwhile, everything we spoke about with the AI trade has been insane. The money should have been in AI.

    Money should work. It should not be lazy. For some people, money is actually losing them value — they hold some asset that just goes down. Money should work. It should be in a bull trend. It should be positioned in a bull trend, like we've seen with — let's even see what Sandis is doing now. Yeah. There you go. All-time high after all-time high after all-time high. And this is not altcoins, guys. Isn't it crazy that we're not looking at altcoins? We're looking at AI stocks now.

    At some point, the market is also going to punish the boomers in the eye. It's going to happen at some point, but we don't predict it — we look at the trend. Should it go bear, we're very careful. But I know a few things about the parabolas, guys. Being in crypto, I've learned a few things. Should this thing start going into a bear trend — holy crap, be careful. I can write a book about the parabolas. The same thing is going to happen with the AI stocks. The problem is you don't know when it's going to happen. We can still do another 2x in Sandis, maybe 3x. Who knows? We need to look at the trend. We need to look at what else is happening.

    Price-based versus time-based capitulation

    Ivan on Tech: If you consider the last elevator down we had and then look at a similar elevator down now, the target is around $50,000. This is just a copy-paste from the last dump. Nothing is exactly the same, but just to give you a bit of perspective on how the elevator down for Bitcoin could unfold — it is around $50,000. It could be smaller. It doesn't have to be the same. But it could also be bigger, because here we consolidated for a much longer time, and when you consolidate for a long time, the breakout move is quite large.

    And this is not bearish — what I'm telling you here looks bearish, but it's actually bullish, because it means that we have arrived in the holy land. The buy zone. We would be well, well within the buy zone if we come into the $50,000s and $40,000s.

    Is it still possible for us to bounce here? It's possible. But for both bears and bulls, it would be a very horrible thing. If we bounce, it would just mean prolonged suffering, prolonged bleeding. You want fast. Just like when you catch a fish — if you want to grill the fish, you want to end the suffering fast. You want a fast, nice elevator down. Then everyone is happy. You say, "It's the buy zone. Bull market is very likely to start."

    Should we go like this and bounce? Very likely it's just prolonged suffering, because it is inevitable that at the end of the day you need the final capitulation. Capitulation can be twofold.

    Option one: price capitulation. Let's do price capitulation. Then suffering is over — that's it, up only. And even for the bulls' happiness, it's best if we have capitulation and then we start rebuilding. Even if it takes time to come back to $66,000–$67,000 where we are now, bulls are still going to be happier, because in markets you are happy if price moves up — not if price has recovered your initial portfolio. It's actually interesting. You feel psychologically good as long as the price goes up. Even if you're down 99% and it pumped 5%, you still feel good.

    Option two: time-based capitulation. As we've been saying many times, should we just derp around here until October — okay, maybe that's the bottom also. It can be like this. You have time-based or price-based. If we're here in August or September and we still haven't dumped, then I would say likely it's up-only season. Anyway, you have two options, but the best one for everyone is the price-based capitulation. Price-based capitulation is also my favorite. It's the best. It's faster. And then we go.

    Michael Saylor and the MicroStrategy STRK preferred stock situation

    Ivan on Tech: Ivan, do you think Saylor is a systemic risk? And do you believe he needs to increase the dividend of STRK to make it more lucrative for investors? It seems that it won't recover. That's a great question. Let's check the STRK chart.

    Oh, holy crap, guys. This is serious. It's at $96. I missed this dump. It happened yesterday or what? Holy macaroni, guys. How is he going to go back to $100? He needs to go back to $100.

    Okay, this was a great question. Big shout out to Azad. I actually missed this fall. Holy crap — it fell all the way to $95. So Saylor now is in a very interesting situation. I'm just watching how he's going to handle this. It's kind of like a circus. You go to the circus, you take popcorn. You see a guy eating fire, spinning in the ceiling. You're just thinking, "How the hell is he going to do it?" It's entertainment. Saylor is the same. I'm just curious how the hell he's going to get out of this.

    So basically it's down to $96. He now has 12 days. He has 12 days until the ex-dividend date, meaning that the dividend is going to be captured by those that hold STRK on the 15th. So he has 12 days. After the 15th, everyone dumps again. So he has until the 15th to raise money. He raises money only in case we go above $100. And how the hell is he going to go from $96 to $100? I don't know, because he struggled last month to get to $100. We went to like $99, and it was a big struggle to get to $100. Anyway, last month we went to $99, and in the last five days we were above $100. So he could raise money. Now we are at $96. How the hell is he going to get to $100?

    He can do a few things. He can, for example, increase the dividend. He can say, "Hey, instead of 11% you get 20%." Then more people would likely buy and we push to $100. And we've been saying this for months — if it happens, we've been calling it many, many times — the fact that he will have to increase the dividend probably within the coming months.

    If he does increase the dividend, it's a big fat warning sign. Because now his life is more expensive — for all the holders, he has to pay more. And he is running out of money. He has $900 million cash now and he has $1.7 billion in annual dividend obligations. Should he increase the dividend, this goes from $1.7 billion maybe to $2 billion, maybe to $2.5 billion.

    He can clearly sell Bitcoin. The only options left are to sell MicroStrategy stock or shut off the dividend. If he shuts off the dividend, it's going to be extremely, extremely bad, because then STRK would fall — maybe to $50. It's impossible to say exactly because you need to run the numbers. It would fall to whatever the common stock is worth — MicroStrategy common stock. You need to calculate at what price one STRK corresponds to the value of one MSTR, taking into account a few things. It is still preferred stock. So should MicroStrategy get liquidated in the future as a company, STRK will get the assets first. It's preferred stock. So you need to run some numbers and see at what price STRK without a dividend matches MSTR, because MSTR is the baseline.

    Anyway, I don't know where that number is. Someone needs to run the numbers. Maybe we can check it with AI later on. But it would likely fall quite a lot. And that would obviously kill the whole story that it's like a bank account that pays you yield — "Stretch your income, stretch, put your pension into STRK, get the 10% per year." If they shut off dividends, those people would lose a lot of money. They bought at around $100. If it depegs and goes to like $70 because there's no more dividend, it's going to be interesting.

    So thanks for bringing this to our attention. This is not too good for Saylor. It's actually very bad. He will have to figure something out. Maybe increase the dividend — but if he increases the dividend, big problem, because now he's running out of money even faster.

    Bitcoin has no yield — and why that matters

    Ivan on Tech: A bit has no yield. Bitcoin has no yield. Period. Has no yield.

    Now here, by the way, Tom Lee is in a bit better position. Tom Lee could outlive Saylor and MicroStrategy because Tom Lee has ETH, and ETH has yield. ETH gives birth to new ETH in real time. It has income. Bitcoin has no yield. I know they try to make a fake number — they call it "Bitcoin yield." You know the Bitcoin yield? It's Fugazi. It's a marketing invention. Bitcoin has no yield. Period.

    So that's the situation with MicroStrategy. It's actually one of the key things to watch. And that's also why I think many people are turning to Zcash.

    The Zcash and privacy coin narrative for the next bull cycle

    Ivan on Tech: Let's see when Zcash goes into a bear trend. But for now, Zcash is super strong as you know. Zcash is just Bitcoin minus Saylor — 99% cheaper and private. Seems like a no-brainer.

    And by the way, to some extent, I feel for Saylor. He was the hero. He did a lot of great things for Bitcoin. And now the Bitcoiners, the plebes, are ungrateful. But also, it's his own fault. He took it too far. He should have just bought Bitcoin as a company and that's it — not do Ponzinomic, not do 10% interest, "give me your money, it's like a bank account." I mean, I do see the side of the story where he's the forgotten hero, but he actually turned himself into Ponzinomic too much. I would never say to you guys, "Buy STRK and get 10%." I would never say that. His system does not make sense to me. If he just bought Bitcoin and held it in MicroStrategy — fantastic. Don't try to do this endless growth, take out more leverage all the time. It started as a nice thing. It really did. But then maybe one and a half years ago, it turned into something very different. It turned into a ticking time bomb.

    He made us too much Wall Street, which was great — probably responsible for a lot of the pump in the last years. Absolutely. Big shout out to Saylor. Let's remember the good. But when it turned into yield stuff, I don't like yield stuff. Bitcoin yield out of nowhere — I call BS instantly. Those that don't call BS, they are the victims in BlockFi, Celsius, and other stuff. I don't trust any yield when I don't know where the yield is coming from.

    ETH has yield. You stake ETH, it gives birth to new ETH. New ETH is coming out from inflation. Great. SOL has yield. You stake SOL, it gives birth to new SOL. Good. I have no problem if someone said, "We will offer you yield based on SOL." Great. Bitcoin has no yield. So Zcash is basically one of the narratives. It can be other ones as well, but I love it. We have Cypherpunk. No Wall Street, no Saylor, fully encrypted. Very nice.

    And Brian Armstrong is lowkey shilling Zcash, which I find fascinating. Let me play this.

    Brian Armstrong: "Privacy is actually really important — especially in our financial lives. That's some of the most sensitive data, right up there with maybe your health information or something like that. It's actually kind of amazing and surprising to me that crypto has gotten as big as it has where — people say it's pseudonymous, right? All the transactions including the amount and the timestamp and everything are happening on a public ledger. Now your name is not attached to it, but the addresses are all public. So if you go do KYC somewhere, or someone deanonymizes one of those addresses, they can often deanonymize the next transactions down the chain. So in a way, it's actually kind of surprising how much growth crypto has gotten even with that sort of default open nature.

    Now, some of the projects that came out early — like Zcash or Monero or something that were very privacy-focused — Monero in particular, I think it attracted, because it was 100% private, early adopters who were doing nefarious things. So it created this kind of perception issue: "Well, isn't this just majority bad actors? Isn't this just illicit activity?" Now, I don't know if that's true or not in those cases, but sometimes perception is reality from a legislators or law enforcement perspective.

    So my view on this is that privacy is very important. We need to get it in crypto. And the way I think it's going to happen is you're going to start with these chains that are default open — like Ethereum, or some of the layer twos like Base, or Solana and all these — and there's going to be an optional transaction type that is private. That way you can say, "Hey, look — 99% of the chain is legitimate activity. There's now legitimate people also using private transactions." And it might cost a little bit more in gas fees, but it's actually very similar to when the internet started — it was all HTTP and then it moved to HTTPS. And I don't know if you remember, back in the early days of the internet people would say, "Oh, HTTPS is slower, the protocol is slower." But eventually people just moved — almost the entire internet runs on HTTPS now. It got faster over time, the computers got faster, the cryptography got faster, browsers got better. And so I think that's what's going to happen. We actually acquired this company called Iron Fish to go work on private transactions for Base earlier this year in 2025, and that team is really talented. They've been making good progress, and yeah, our goal is essentially—"

    Ivan on Tech: I think we get the point. Guys, privacy — I love that we have this narrative for the next bull. We need another flush, we need another flash likely, but I love that there is a narrative for the next bull. We have a narrative. It's so nice. It is privacy. It's Cypherpunk. Commerce on the internet did not take off until we went from HTTP to HTTPS. The same is true of blockchain. Privacy is the final scaling frontier of crypto. And for humanity it's good. Imagine for humanity — everyone has a wallet in crypto, and it's private. It's good for humanity also.

    I do feel we have a very nice narrative building around crypto. It's kind of the best. We get the best out of the Cypherpunk ethos. It's not memecoins. Instead it is encrypted money for cyberspace. We go to Mars with Elon. We have encrypted money so aliens don't see what the hell we're sending. Fantastic. The government is going to try to stop that, but they can't.

    And they will try to stop it, but we have now a few more years with Trump. Let's get Zcash mass adopted under Trump. This administration is pro-crypto — let's ignore all other stuff, but this administration is pro-crypto. They will not go hard after your Zcash stuff. They will not. So under Trump we have a window. Should it change, it's going to be different. But we don't talk too much about the political stuff because it's just theater for plebs. That's kind of my realization over the past years. Instead, we focus on our stuff and that's it.

    Zcash chart analysis and how to position now

    Ivan on Tech: Let's check Zcash. As always, you want to be in early, early, early bull trend on the weekly. The bull trend started here in early May. Let's check the daily — how it looks. The last trend started in April, plus 68%. You want to be in early trends. It is what it is.

    At the same time, you can obviously try to find some time frame where you're still early. On the 4-hour, you now have a new 4-hour trend. So if you want to participate in Zcash, you could participate on the 4-hour, but know that you're not buying the new trend. It's okay though. Maybe the daily goes into bear at some point. I wouldn't have too much in it — buy a bit here. You're still within the bull trend, which is good. If you want Zcash in particular, you can buy a bit here. Then let's say we go to bear on the daily at some point — we can also go to $1,000. You need to be in early.

    That's why I'm telling you guys — this is an example where if you don't have the money scanner that tells you in real time when things are flipping, you don't have this tool where in real time you can get an alert. On the daily, it's already been a month since Zcash turned bullish. This is a clear example where people say, "Oh, I'm going to wait until the bull." Okay. But then you're going to miss most of the stuff. One month ago you got the alert here.

    So there is no perfect explanation except that you can go to a lower time frame, you can wait for the daily to become bearish, or you can just yolo here because it's still a bull trend. Then just be careful if it goes bear. Those are the options. It's not optimal. The optimal is again a new bull trend — that's optimal. That's where you want to be.

    And also, if we go to all-time high here at $700, it's going to be price discovery like there is no tomorrow. But it's two-sided because you can also have a double top. All in all, how to handle it: as long as it's bull, you're bull. If we're here and we're still bull, we have the breakout and price discovery as the number one scenario. It's impossible to predict whether it's going to be a double top or not. But we have a strategy, we have a plan — as long as we're bullish, we're bullish. We don't worry too much about double top. Should we go bear and it's a double top, okay — then it's different. Then you have the price trend confirming the pattern also. Trend is the most important thing.

    What you don't want to do — like we discussed earlier in the stream — is some people are going to draw like this and say, "Oh, it's a double top." What do you mean double top? It hasn't even happened. You're anticipating a pattern which hasn't happened. Because all breaks of all-time high are by definition also potential double tops. If you have a chart that goes like this and then next time you go to all-time high, this is the same thing. So all breaks of all-time high are also potential double tops. You cannot anticipate double top because then you're going to be anticipating it whenever something goes to all-time high, which is very bad. Normally when things go to all-time high, they rip like hell.

    One danger sign would be if we go to all-time high and then we deflate. That would be a danger — then it would be looking more like a double top. But we would see it on the daily trend.

    Q&A: Portfolio construction, altcoins, and mental prison

    Ivan on Tech: Hennessy asked in Discord: "What does your crypto portfolio look like for the coming bull cycle? What names are you likely to be holding and in what proportions?"

    Likely not TIA, because TIA is in a big fat bear trend. But see, this question is impossible to answer currently because most assets are in bear trend now. There are only a few assets with Zcash being one. Then you have Hyperliquid, you have Venice. It's only a few that are bullish. So to say how the portfolio is going to look in the bull cycle — it's impossible to say now. We just have to go along and see what flips bullish on the weekly time frames, and what new coins there are. There's going to be many new launches. We will have to see what is flipping bullish and to what extent and how the pumps are looking.

    It's impossible to say now, and that's how it should be. I don't think you should — I mean, if someone tells you, "I will have this coin and this coin and this coin," I've been there before and I can tell you it's not a good strategy. You can try to select coins based on narrative, but then some other stuff pops — like we saw with NFTs or with Dog With Hat. You can't predict it. So we have to see what pumps in real time.

    Timmy — oh yeah, this was the guy that said he escaped the mental prison from holding bear assets ADA and LINK, down and down for six years, and rotated into bull trend assets. Congrats on freedom from mental prison. That's the biggest win. Escaping the mental prison.

    Could you give feedback about SADA? What feedback do you want? All of them are in bear trends. There's no life. It's bear trend — meaning you don't touch it. You don't touch it. Feedback for the coming bull cycle: it needs to go bull and it needs to pump. And it is not doing it now. It's bear trend. Maybe you thought I would comment on some fundamentals, but no — you need a bull trend. No matter what the fundamentals say.

    ADA — man. ADA went up a bit, then pooped the bed, now going to all-time lows. It was lower at some point. Holy crap, it's very bad. What feedback do you want? Some people — no, I will comment on tech. I'm Ivan on Tech. Well, I'm on technical analysis. In 2013 I was more about tech fundamentals, then I got mega wrecked in many ways. I'm a developer — I'm all about tech — but then you check the tech and the chart poops the bed. You have to look at the chart. Chart very bad for ADA, going to all-time low.

    You had some other ones. Anyway, you get the situation. A reminder of the mental prison. It's tough because you feel dumb for selling. People that sold here felt dumb for a while, then it pumped a bit, and you know, at some point maybe this is the bottom and then it goes up from here. But at the end of the day, you want to have a strategy where you're in bull assets so that you have the cards stacked in your favor. There's always a risk that you sell and then it goes to Valhalla without you — it's always a risk. But the alternative is that you are just a pleb for years, holding it down and down and down and down.

    Ivan, do you use crypto in Revolut and opt-out wallets? Revolut — I haven't tried it myself to use it from Revolut, but I know it works quite well. I know from people I know that use Revolut for off-ramp — it works quite well. I think you can use it as an off-ramp. You can send Bitcoin into it. Can you send Bitcoin out of it? Maybe you can. I'm not using it too much, but yeah. Big fees — that's the problem. Whenever you have a nice service with a new bank like Revolut, of course they know there are not many options, so they're going to charge a lot.

    Can you explain how NEAR works? When I was checking Zcash, it showed a NEAR address and how it works. That is a whole different video. We could do it. But NEAR has done something very interesting where an account on NEAR can be an account on many different chains — including Zcash, including Solana and everything. Their whole chain is made for interoperability. But that would require a separate video.


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