Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's 200-week moving average and broader crypto market conditions
Ivan on Tech delivers a live market analysis covering Bitcoin's drop to support, altcoin bear trends, and trading strategy.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a solo live stream analyzing Bitcoin's recent drop to the 200-week moving average, arguing that this level historically represents a cheap entry point even if further downside remains possible. He distinguishes between two investor archetypes — long-term DCA holders and capital-efficient traders who should wait for a confirmed bull trend flip — and explains the mechanical rules framework he teaches through his Bull Mania program. He also covers the Zcash vulnerability and proposed Ironwood pool migration, Cardano's ongoing decline, Solana's potential further downside, and a volume-based accumulation signal he identifies in certain altcoins (including TAU and IGV) as a potential reversal indicator. The stream closes with a brief look at the MSTR chart, though the segment ends before any substantive analysis is delivered.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Drops to the 200-Week Moving Average
Ivan on Tech: Welcome to another episode. Right now, Bitcoin did something crazy over the weekend — went all the way to $59,000, and then we actually found support at the 200-week moving average. The question everyone has is: what will Bitcoin do now? Will we have a nice bounce here at the 200-week moving average, or are we going to collapse and have another leg down? Let's discuss, because now we're entering a very interesting part of the journey here in this bear market.
I believe that we are somewhere here. If you compare to the last bear market, we are somewhere here. And the reason I say that is because my number one tool to see Bitcoin fair price is the 200-week moving average. Ever since October 8th, when we went risk-off, we said we're going to be in a bear trend — but should we get into the buy zone, this green box right here, even if we're still in the bear trend but we are in the green zone, Bitcoin is cheap. This is very important and very urgent for everyone to understand: Bitcoin around the 200-week moving average, especially when it went below, is cheap. This is cheap.
And the chances are that we still go lower. In the last bear market, how much lower did we go? We went here and then it was like 30% lower. But it's okay because long-term, it's still the best risk-reward to get around the 200-week moving average, where you don't even have to think, you don't have to have all kinds of different strategies. 200-week moving average — that's it.
The Money Line Bull Flip Signal
The ultimate signal of the bull will be once we go into bull trend on the money line. The importance of it is that this basically means it is imminent — in the immediate short-term future, we will likely have a big fat pump. That's what that bull trend is going to tell us. Because here, you remember we touched the 200-week moving average in June, but it still took six months for us to go into bull trend on the money line. So you could argue that here the money was just sleeping. It wasn't working for you. Instead of putting it into stocks, instead of putting it into other assets, it was just sleeping. But once the money line turned bullish, that's when you got instant Valhalla.
So if you want to optimize how much your money is working for you, wait for the bull flip on the money line. The money line now is going down in terms of when it flipped bullish — last week it was at 91, now it is at 88. The coming weeks it is likely going to drop even more. So if you want the most capital-efficient way of trading the next bull, wait for the money line to turn bull, because then the likelihood of instant Valhalla is very, very high. You have your instant coffee — boop, it's ready. Just a bit of water, it's ready. The same thing with instant Valhalla. That's when we go bull on the money line.
But if you're more of a long-term investor and you don't care that maybe you lose half a year derping around below or at the 200-week moving average, then I can tell you that now Bitcoin is cheap already. It depends on which person you are. Many people want maximum exposure to all kinds of markets — that's fine. Some people just want to DCA to achieve prices — that's also fine. So whatever type you are, you have a plan here. Let me know in the comment section which one you are.
Community Shoutouts and Market Calls
Holy crap, guys, we have so much engagement now in terms of the calls. I see many people commenting basically every day that we called it. Big shout out to Proof of Travis — Travis said he's gotta give it up, that we've been calling to wait for the 200-week moving average since October. Even when Taiki — big shout out to Taiki — he jumped the gun prematurely. He did get an instance of premature bull jackolation, but he's making fun of himself. I love that. He's making fun of himself. When you realize how much money you're down on crypto after being bullish at the top. Yeah, he was bullish at the local top. Big shout out to Travis.
Also, big shout out to Crypto Kamoto, who said that he sold 80% since late October and has been short since. Life is good when you leave the pleb mindset. Hey guys, listen — even if you lost money this bear, don't worry, the next bull is coming very, very, very soon. We will be guiding you by the hand here, showing you exactly what's happening.
Two Archetypes: DCA Holder vs. Capital-Efficient Trader
It's time to be bullish. We are now coming into an area where Bitcoin is so cheap, it's time to be bullish. And many altcoins will find the bottom also in Q4. The most important move will be to ensure that you know the mechanical rules so you can really squeeze all of the altcoin opportunities, because the biggest wealth is going to be in altcoins, guys. One hundred percent. It's going to be in altcoins. And if you can trade Bitcoin with leverage — of course, if you know nothing, if you don't know the mechanical rules, you're going to get wrecked if you try. You're going to get wrecked if you try Bitcoin with leverage or altcoins.
The reason I say that is because let's say Bitcoin goes to $150,000 from here. If you invest $1,000, you're going to have like $2,500, maybe even less like $2,200. So you understand Bitcoin itself — it's already at such a big amount that within the coming years, for you to really go from zero to hero, you will have to make significant moves. Sadly, we're not anymore in a position where you just buy Bitcoin and it does 100x. Bitcoin is maybe going to do 2x, 3x. Then you have alts. That's a totally different beast. If you know how to play them, you know the bull trends, they will make you fantastic returns. They can also wreck you if you don't know. The same thing with leverage — you can get fully wrecked. Most people get fully wrecked. Why? Because they have no stop loss, no mechanical rules. They have nothing. They just go on vibes. They go emotional. So that's why you need to have the mechanical rules. Without them, it's very hard. Almost impossible. But the opportunities are going to be there one million percent.
Capital Rotation: AI Stocks Into Crypto
I see a question: Ivan, is it possible money is moving out of crypto so people can try to get SpaceX? Coming back to the question about capital rotation — I think there's going to be such a big capital rotation from AI, from all of the tech stuff, back into crypto. Why? You will have AI getting squeezed by political pressures. We don't see it yet, but likely towards the midterms, especially as the next presidential race starts, which is next year, we're going to see more and more of the candidates — who's going to be the candidate for Democrats, for Republicans. There's going to be a bunch of politicians trying to save the average person from AI, which will mean massive AI taxes. Massive, massive, massive. The market has not priced in a massive tax on your favorite AI agent that just replaced 100 people working in the office.
So all of these different factors. First factor being that we pumped so much. Second factor being that the political pressure is not priced in. Third factor being that crypto is freaking cheap as hell. We just discussed Bitcoin, but most altcoins are in the gutter also. And a lot of them will start creating bull trends. When you have a new bull trend, it's good risk-reward to be in that new bull trend. Bitcoin is still bear — like everything is still bear in crypto — because we're still not in Q4. But as we are closer to Q4, it wouldn't surprise me that we actually get many bull trends. And when you have a flipping of trend, you have to respect it 100%. If you don't respect a flip of trend, you will either lose 90% of your money or you will miss the pump.
Just like people faded the bear flips and are fully destroyed here. If you look on the weekly or even the daily — even the daily — XRP down 65%, Solana down 65%. And this is not from all-time high; this is just from the flip. So from all-time high, it's an even bigger loss.
Stock Market Update
Let's check the stock market because many people are worried about what's going to happen to stocks. Are we still going to pump in the stock market? So far so good. Again, here's another example where you don't overcomplicate too much. We are in bull trend on S&P. We did have a red week last week. This week, if you look at the futures, it seems to be green. So no need to overreact that we had a red week — still green. We're obviously going to update you. But for now, looking quite okay. S&P is looking quite okay. Seems that it wants to moon higher.
Looking at NASDAQ, NASDAQ wants to open a bit higher. Obviously, this is just open. It's Monday. It's just pre-market prices. Who the hell knows what's going to happen at the end of the day. But don't get too eager to turn bear. It's still bull.
Zcash: Vulnerability, Ironwood Migration, and Team Response
One example of that, by the way, is Zcash — it actually recovered this crazy, crazy week and is now back within the bull trend on the weekly. There are actually some updates from Zcash that we need to discuss. This crazy week all the way to $2.55 was insane.
There are two ways of using Zcash. You have the open way, the transparent way, and then you have the shielded way — the secret way. And when you do the secret way, you do it within a so-called pool. The pool in question is the Orchard pool. So the Orchard pool is the current pool. It didn't get hacked, but there was a vulnerability that theoretically could have been exploited, where an attacker could have minted unlimited Zcash. But we don't know if they did because it's all shielded in the Orchard pool — it's invisible. So it did not get hacked, but a vulnerability was found where potentially it could have been exploited. And because there's no way to know, there has been a lot of confusion.
They have a solution. Basically, create a new pool. They have Ironwood, which is the new pool for shielded transactions. They will freeze the existing Orchard pool, where you potentially have new coins being minted but no one knows if it happened. To migrate from the old pool — which will be disabled, users will not be able to use it — the way it's going to work is that from the old pool, you will be able to move your funds into the new pool, which is going to be secret as well. But in this migration, all of the supply is going to be double-checked. So the attacker will not be able to move any counterfeit money from Orchard Pool to Ironwood. In case they minted something illegally, that will not be able to move.
The objective of Ironwood is to restore each Zcash user's ability to verify the supply and integrity of Zcash. Immediately upon activation, users will be able to independently verify that the circulating supply of Zcash is sound. So all of the secret money that you have in Zcash, you will have to migrate to the new pool. If you have minted something shady, you will not be able to migrate. The market seems to be buying this solution.
Overall, I have to give a big fat shout out to the Zcash team, because if you think about it, everything that they've done signals that they're actually very professional and very serious. Let's look at what happened: they themselves did this investigation into their tech, they themselves found that there is a vulnerability, they themselves disclosed and fixed the vulnerability, and they themselves now have a solution so everyone can verify the supply.
If you compare to, for example, how ETH operates — ETH has a problem, it's freaking slow, L2s are a facade, nothing gets done, users leave — and what do the ETH maxis say? They say, oh no, we are the best, we have the moral ground, you are all shitcoiners, Solana is centralized, and all of the other things they say. Instead of just saying, hey guys, actually it's correct, let's fix it. The Zcash team said: we have a problem, a technical problem, we fixed it. Here's the step-by-step. Fantastic.
So all in all, I understand why the market is buying it. But from a trading perspective, it's very important to have a stop loss. In this case, Zcash was good at giving you all the explanation and being responsible. If this were another project — Terra Luna — this could easily just continue down. From a trading perspective, the best risk-reward is still to have your stop loss, even if it does recover like this, because we're all here to ride trades in all kinds of different assets. In many cases, you have teams that don't do everything correctly. So when you have a repeatable system that you can apply on asset after asset after asset, you need to protect your capital always. Stop loss always needed.
And many people felt that in real time when Zcash went from around $600 to $300 — basically lost 50% in a blink.
South Korea Market and Solana Analysis
Now guys, looking at the stock market, South Korea is having a bit of a dump today — minus 8.4%. The good thing is that it never actually propagated into the US market, so so far so good. US market is strong.
People ask about Solana to $30. Let's check if Solana is going to go to $30. Our analysis has not changed. In fact, it's more correct than it was back in January. We talked about Solana to $30 since like January, guys. So I would say it's even more correct now because we broke down the support. We're going lower. The only thing that would change my mind is in case we're going to bull trend here at $100. If Solana goes to $100 and goes into bull trend on the money line, it's just less likely. For now, though, it is a big fat falling knife.
Someone said this is not normal. What do you mean not normal? Look at any altcoin — it looks like this. Look at Avalanche, look at DOT, look at any altcoin. This is the standard way altcoins behave in a bear market. It's the standard way. There's no protection because you're a blue chip or you have a big community or whatever you have. If you have a bear trend, you're going to go down 80%, 90%. Bear trend on the weekly is ruthless.
I said: actually, performance is very normal for an altcoin in the bear trend. Extremely normal. Any altcoin in a weekly bear trend can easily lose 80–90%. And Solana, by the way, is down only 65%. So you have theoretically more downside and it would still be normal. The same is true on the way up — should Solana go bullish, let's say go to $100, we're bullish also. But we need bull trend for that. Now it's still bear, so downward pressure is still bigger. Do not fade bear trends, do not ignore mechanical rules. Very important.
Cardano and Charles Hoskinson
Ada — similar situation. We mentioned Ada before. Man, Charles is so funny. I don't know what's happening to him. He's freaking out. He said: "We've survived for 10 years in the trenches. We have a brand. There's people. Good people. But we're losing them. Week by week by week. It's not a meltdown."
The problem is that the meltdown is happening, but we're down already so much, man. The meltdown should be happening in your brain when you see bear trend. That's why as soon as we saw bear trend in Q4 2024, we were out instantly. We're teleporting out. It's like the Homer backing into the bush meme. We're out. The same thing — bull trends are going to come, and I will tell you in real time here on the channel when bull trends come. We're going to be grabbing everything with both hands, whether it's Cardano, whatever, other stuff. Even XRP we're going to grab if it goes into bull trend.
He said he's leaving, then he said he's not leaving, but he did say he's taking a break. He's taking a break. But from what, man? It's been bear market. From what are you taking a break? It's been bear market. After a bull market, I understand — if you had a bull market, you had many things: new launches, new partnerships, new things that got launched. Then I understand that you need a break. But in the bear market, from what do you need a break? Nothing has happened here. Why do you need a break?
In the bull market, I understand. If you have a good chain with a good team, you have integrations, projects, new coins launching on your chain, new DEXs, so much to organize, all of the conferences, getting the users, getting the volume, getting the TVL — then you need a break. But even that you didn't do in Cardano. So I don't know where the break is needed.
If you have ADA, you're on your own. The only good news I have for you is that the volume has been quite high here on this breakdown, which is potentially a local low. When you have such high volume, sometimes it's a bit bullish because it's a local low. Also, another bullish thing is that you have support here. Maybe it's going to be used. But yeah, it's looking very bad, guys. It's looking very bad. Wouldn't surprise me if we go lower. I'm not here for you yet, but I will be here for you in case it goes bull trend.
Breaking Out of Mental Prison — Community Wins
The importance of not being in mental prison. I actually had one guy in our community say that he's so happy that he broke mental prison. Your boy Axel said that he just joined recently, making a bank from old mental prison this week — basically getting out of Avalanche, shorting the crap out of it. Instead of just holding it for years, being in mental prison. He's been there for years holding this, and now he entered Bull Mania, got the mechanical rules, got all of the tools, got everything needed — fantastic. Then he said he made two other trades like this since Monday.
Big shout also to Kenny who shorted the crap out of Zcash when we did see the collapse on lower timeframes. Fantastic. Figaro making progress this week in Bull Mania. It was definitely a week for shorting. Exactly — now we have shorting season. Bitcoin is bearish on daily and weekly, so shorting season now.
Then you have Ted, who said he just put mechanical rules to work on a 15-minute long for Zcash, letting the adrenaline settle. There you go. There's always something to trade, guys. In lower timeframes, there's always something to trade.
Mooncat — man, Mooncat is killing it. Didn't close yet, still waiting. Big shout to Mooncat, who is, by the way, a lady. I didn't know that. I thought Mooncat was a dude until maybe like a week ago when she revealed she's actually not a dude. Anna, shorting Anna, also Mooncat — fantastic.
Jason — this is our Chinese quant — gives all kinds of trade setups every day, every day, every day. Big shout out to everyone in Bull Mania. Keep sharing gains, keep motivating people around the world with your success.
Turtle is saying just small practice with small amounts, but still percentage gain. Exactly. You don't need to worry about big percentage gain. It's always fun to show 100%, 500%, but don't worry about that. If you can just get 10%, 20%, and you can repeat that — look at the compounding in that. If you can have a repeatable way to get even this on smaller amounts, because with risk management, with stop loss, with position sizing, you never risk a big part of your portfolio. But if you can repeat this on a small part of your portfolio, man, it's fantastic. Power of the mechanical rules right there.
The Raoul Pal Zcash Prophecy
Guys, I cannot let this go because the prophecy came true. The Raoul Pal prophecy. He just entered Zcash, man. He just entered Zcash, and you know what happened to Zcash last week.
Let me just play this. He was saying:
"We've chosen some of the most trusted names in the space to work with us to help provide this for free, so BlockFi and Silvergate have teamed up to partner with us so we can bring this to all of you and for you to share it with as many people as possible. I think you know by now how important this digital revolution is and I urge you to take part in this. Stuff like Terra Network — you can just put money, stake the network and get 20%. And they're basically risk-free if you want to own that network. I'm massively overweight SUI. Massively."
"Can I ask you, percentage-wise, more or less?"
"I'm definitely over 70% SUI. And that's not anything to do with the foundation that I'm on. That's my just capital allocation of my savings. I added some Zcash."
Why? I bought more SUI, obviously. But it just felt that the prophecy came true because we actually watched this video like two weeks ago when Raoul Pal added Zcash. Part of me knew that, holy crap, if Raoul Pal is interested in Zcash, maybe something's going to happen. And yes, indeed, it went from $600 to $300.
Now, okay, maybe it recovers now. Likely it's going to be okay because the team is good — like the team is actually good, they're responsible, they're doing it correctly. But I couldn't let it go that it was right when he was in Zcash.
Q&A Session
Anyway, guys, that's it. Let's go to Q&A. Questions, answers, debates, discussions.
Should I go all in Bitcoin now or wait lower? It depends fully on who you are. I would say if you are a hodler, you really believe in crypto, you don't really care about other assets too much, then DCAing here around the 200-week moving average — even if it goes lower — is fantastic. Now if you are more of a 360 investor where you are exposed to other asset classes, then I would say wait until the bull flip, because you may have a situation like back here where it was a good price, it went a bit lower, but you wasted half a year. Half a year in the stock market can be quite insane. Just look at the last half a year in the stock market.
It depends really on who you are, what your goal is. I would say if you are a holder, just hold, accumulate crypto, accumulate coins — yes, it's good. But just know that you may have a situation where your capital is not really working perfectly for you.
Just to show you here — within the last few months, this TechCreate Group pumped almost 2,000%. Western Digital up 1,000% since a year ago. Rimalda 600%, TTM 580%. Bandwidth 300-something, Intel 300% nine months ago. So you see, you miss six months and it's a big chunk of these gains. Now, obviously, the stock market can also dump. You need to follow trends here also.
There are two archetypes of trader and investor: crypto only and 360. For crypto only, I think now it's quite good. You will not go wrong here by DCAing. If you're 360 and your capital needs to be in the best possible position, it's still not crypto and even not Bitcoin because it's in bear trend. You want to be in bull trends.
Any chance for SUI or Aptos to go to all-time high? Yeah, there's always a chance, man. Never say never. We are probabilistic. There's always a chance. When they pump, they can pump quite quick. Just look in the last bear here — it went down 77% and then came back and set a new ultimate high. It went down 85% — can it go back to a new ultimate high? It's possible. I wouldn't count on it just hodling, but I would be interested in SUI if we go bull on the weekly. If you just hodl, hodl, hodl, hoping for it to come back — with mechanical rules, it's not what we do. People hodled here and hodled here. It's very bad. Just hodling is very bad.
But if you are in such a position, I would look at either moving assets into a bull trend, into something that has a bullish trend — which is not too many things right now, it's like Zcash, Hype, and a few others — or if you really love SUI, you can just hodl and see where things stand. But I wouldn't recommend that from a risk-reward perspective. Instead, I would be in bull trends. If this thing goes bullish, great — then we're also bullish.
Altcoin Bear Market Reality Check
Oh man, what is this? Let me check this chart. Oh my God. Oh yoy, yoy, yoy. This is the problem with bear market, guys. It can always go lower, man. It can always go lower. People thought it's down 80%. It goes down another 80%. Oh my God. Holy crap. Even you see people thought they had a discount here — down 75%. The problem is it went 75% down and now it went down another 90%.
Guys, there's nothing more to say. You see yourself. So that's why, when you asked me about SUI — when it's down a lot, it can always go lower. That's the problem with holding a bear trend. There's always another leg down. In bear trend, always. You will be surprised how the market invents a new leg down. There's always another leg down. Remember: in bear trend, there's always another leg down. You are very unlikely to have bought the dip and then the moon. More likely you bought the dip and we have 50 more dips.
It is the hard truth. Sometimes people say, Ivan, you should sugarcoat more, or you're not sensitive to people's losses. Maybe I'm just telling you how it is. Maybe someone else can sugarcoat you. But the problem is, they sugarcoat you, you lose even more.
Sometimes, especially on Twitter, when I say things — hey, look at what we've been doing, our track record, look at the wrong track record that you've seen — people say, oh no, Ivan, why are you enjoying other people's losses? Man, are you five years old? You're sad. Okay, you're sad. So what? You're a grown man. You had a loss. And Ivan cannot explain that this was the perfect setup, you listened to some other stuff, now you lost money — this is too harsh for you? This is why the west is collapsing, guys. Dudes cannot even take a loss and review what happened and be better.
I tell you how it is: you're in bad shape, why the hell are you in bad shape, fix it until next cycle, stop crying. Our job here is to tell you the market, how it works. It's freaking brutal. But the best way of me being sympathetic is to tell you the reality. That's how I can help you the most. Be positive, bull market is coming. That's it. It's true. Be positive, bull market is coming and it's going to be great. And let's focus on what went wrong, what we can improve. Bear trend — you don't joke with bear trend. You don't. And you also don't joke with bull trend. When we go to bull trend, it's going to be bull trend. That's it.
TAU Chart Analysis — Volume as Accumulation Signal
Moving on. Ivan, I want to go all in TAU. Why do you want to go all in TAU? What's happening here? It's technically bull trend, but it's a very weak bull trend. This chart — I don't like this kind of chart where it's just chopping because there's little information here. Maybe for ideological reasons you like TAU, but from a chart perspective, it's just consolidating. It doesn't look good, it doesn't look bad. It has some crazy floor here. Let me actually remove the money line here because there is no trend here. It's just a crazy floor. If it breaks this floor, it would be a bit scary.
So for TAU, I have no opinion here. I'm not bullish. I don't know what it's doing. I don't know how you can have a chart like this. What kind of manipulation it is. What the market maker is doing here.
But wait — we see a clue here. Can you see the clue? What are insiders doing here? Do you see any clue here? What is the market maker doing? What are the insiders doing? Exactly — someone said volume. Exactly. Cassian Harvey, exactly, yes. So guys, what can we see? Massive volume. So in some cases, like this one, we cannot really analyze trend too much. They draw something of their own here. The price chart has little information. The information here is in the volume. They have been buying this like maniacs. There has been crazy accumulation happening, probably by the market maker.
Because when you have a coin, you want your market maker to buy the coin in bear. If you control the supply of your coin, you basically set the price. Just think about it. Let's say you are in a village and you have a farm with watermelons. No one else has watermelons, only you have the farm. So you have 99% of the supply of the whole watermelon in the village. You set the price. Maybe some guy has a resale watermelon, but he has just one. So whatever price he says, the trade happens, then he has no pricing power anymore. So when you control the supply of something, you also set its price.
Let's say I have 99% of the watermelon in the village. You have one. And I see, man, you're selling it too expensive. So I release more watermelon — I can dump the price. Let's say I see the price is too cheap, I want the price to go up. I don't release any watermelon. And then if you guys still have your own resale watermelon, maybe the market will be okay for maybe a week or two weeks, but then they've sold theirs and no one else is there to sell because I have the rest. So now I control when new supply comes out.
This is why in a bear market, if your coin is to come back in the next bull, it's very important — you don't hear this anywhere else — in a bear market, if you have a coin, you need to ensure that you buy your own coin in mass. Big fat fiat you deploy if you want your coin to come back next cycle.
So overall, we don't have a bunch of information about TAU from a price chart perspective, but from a volume perspective, it seems that they are buying it back in a big way. And here is where it could be a sign of bullishness. Again, it's all probabilistic. But I would say it is a good chance that they are preparing the reversal here soon. In a project like TAU, I think this is super controlled. It wouldn't surprise me if they are preparing for a bit of a comeback here. So if you have TAU, maybe not too bad. Let's see.
But this is what you want to see at the end of the bear for your altcoin. You want to see that.
Cookie and Render — No Accumulation Signal
Let's check Cookie. Is Cookie coming back? Cookie is definitely not coming back yet. As you can see, it's not really the same here in terms of volume. It just broke a new low. So this one is not coming back yet.
Let's check Render. From a trend perspective — bear. Nothing too exciting in terms of volume. And by the way, if you want to see this volume, normally it's going to be on the stablecoin pair because market makers work more on the offshore, like Chinese exchanges. I don't think they're going to be doing it on Coinbase. It needs to be a bit in the gray zone, so to speak.
But anyway, it's a tool, guys. It's a tool. I would say it's inferior to the trend. So you follow the trend in 99% of the cases. If there's no clear trend, like in that TAU, you could check something else like the volume. But in this case, in Render, it's a clear trend — it's a clear, bad trend. You don't even have to worry about volume here. The clear trend is bear. So yeah, there's nothing to speak about.
Mechanical Rules and Stop Losses
Evan, can I profit 1% every day with the money line? Bro, with this question, you definitely need the mechanical rules. When you ask, can I profit 1% every day, you don't know too much about markets. Just join the waitlist as soon as possible.
Market is probabilistic, so no one can guarantee you anything. But we can see that if you can get the system working, if you can learn the system, you will have fantastic opportunities in all markets, across all coins, across all stocks, every day. Some of them are going to be at a loss. I actually have one loss to show you because sometimes people ask, Ivan, what about the losses?
One guy actually shared the loss. Losses normally are very small because it's mechanical rules, with protection. But when you don't follow the mechanical rules, you may have a bit of a big loss. What do I mean? For example, you don't have a stop loss. So this guy shorted Hype, lost 17%, and correctly said: not following mechanical rules. Yeah, it's true. So you can definitely have a loss because learning mechanical rules, learning the system, is a process. Sometimes you're going to think, I don't need it, I'm smarter, the retards need stop loss, I'm very smart, I don't need stop loss. Then you get humbled down.
But to answer your question — if someone tells you and guarantees you any kind of percentage per day, run very fast. There's no such thing. But there is the law of large numbers. The law of large numbers is that you have losses — losses are part of the strategy, by the way. You're always going to have a bit of loss, but the law of large numbers means that your gains are going to be bigger. Then how fast things are going to happen for you — there's no way for me to sit here and guarantee you anything.
But we can show you what our members are doing. We can show you what is happening on the inside. And then also, there's your factor. Are you a serious person or are you not a serious person? Are you learning or are you not learning? I cannot guarantee anything for you because you are you. I don't know if you can read. I cannot guarantee anything for you. So it is what it is. But the probabilities are on your side. It's backtested. Members are having great success. And then what you do, you have great chances of doing great. But at the end, it's you.
That's also why, before anyone joins, you do the strategy call. We need to check — are you a serious person? Some people think it's like alerts, you know, when to exactly buy, when to sell. And while we do provide market analysis — Jason does it every day — we need to ensure that you understand what the hell we do and what you need to do. So anyway, the answer is no, no one can guarantee you anything like that.
DCA Strategy and Position Sizing
Ivan, I know we should DCA Bitcoin, but percentage-wise, when should I enter at what percentage? Again, it's where you need a more personal approach. But let me give you a few different scenarios. It depends on who you are. Do you have all your money in crypto or not? How old are you? Are you close to retirement? You have to be more risk-off. Are you just starting out your journey? What is your goal? What's your financial goal? There are endless amounts of questions to be able to answer.
But let's say you want to ride the next bull. You are very convinced about the thesis. Count approximately how many weeks we were here until we broke back above the 200-week moving average in the last bear. In the last bear it was 40 weeks basically that we were here around the 200-week. So you could divide it by 40. Maybe it goes faster this time.
At the end of the day, don't aim for perfection. You can DCA here a bit, maybe it goes slower, you DCA here. With this DCA strategy, it is by definition undeterministic. With the DCA buy zone, you don't have a deterministic strategy. With, for example, going into bull trend, it's way more deterministic. Here you can apply mechanical rules. It's very deterministic, very exact. That's why it's called mechanical rules.
With Bitcoin being cheap around the 200-week or below, you will have to wing it a bit here because it's impossible to know for how long we're going to be staying. We could go down here and be here until October, or we maybe derp here until July and then go to bull trend. You will have to just assess your goal.
But one thing I can tell you is: don't get too greedy. Some people will try to ensure that they get everything in here and then it goes lower and they think, man, I bought too much. Just see it overall as cheap. If you want deterministic, exact, exact, exact, then you need to wait for the bull flip. With the bull flip, we have exact deployment, we have exact everything. With the buy zone, we just don't know how long we are in the zone.
Maybe the easiest way is for you to divide 50-50: 50% of the money you use now to DCA, and then 50% of the money you use when we flip bullish. And when you DCA, you just DCA every week — let's say $100 or $1,000 depending on how much you have. But don't strive for perfection here. When Bitcoin is at $500,000 or $1 million, the details here are going to matter less.
IGV Software ETF — Volume Signal Confirmed
Let's check IGV. Someone asked about IGV and then we wrap this up. What's happening with IGV? It's bull trend — very, very nice. And by the way, Bitcoin has decoupled from IGV. For a while, it was exact. Now it has decoupled.
And by the way, you see also here — you see the volume and it was the bottom. I believe we even said that. I believe I can find a video where I said that IGV has very nice volume here, which is bullish. Please confirm in the comment section if you remember that. But it's — guys, always when you have big volume but nothing happens on the chart, it is a signal.
It's still bull, although it has a red candle. Let's just compare to Bitcoin because Bitcoin is not really following it any longer. And it's okay. Sometimes things follow, sometimes they don't follow. And here we may actually see the deviation take place where it was following, it was following, and then this thing went up and Bitcoin went down. That's why, you know, always when you have two assets following, it is like a third-grade signal. The first grade is the trend, then you have a bunch of second-grade signals including the volume, and then third grade is when the chart looks similar. Because here, yeah, it's not following. Let's see if Bitcoin has a rocket ship now to the upside and it follows. But for now, the deviation is quite big.
Good stuff that we found another example of this volume. Keep an eye on volume, guys. When it is a big dump and consolidation sideways, price is not moving up, but you have big volume happening for some reason — it's a big signal of reversal. Again, everything probabilistic. Sometimes maybe it doesn't happen. It's all probabilities. But let me know if you find other charts like that. Let's see if we find some other chart where it's kind of bottoming out and the volume is very high.
The important thing is that volume needs to be high and price needs to be flat. That's when you have the signal. If price dumps and volume is high — let's say you see a big red candle and volume is high — there is no information there. That's not a signal. But when price is sideways and volume is freaking insane, something's happening here. Market makers are likely buying carefully. They buy carefully because they don't want the price to go up a lot. So they buy carefully, then they stop buying. Price sideways. Maybe price goes down a bit. They buy, buy, buy, buy. Maybe they even release bad news in the meanwhile so there is sell pressure. And then when the price goes a bit higher than normal, there's no more buying and then it drops out. That's the signal.
Because all of the coins now — for them to come back next cycle, they need to buy it back. If they don't buy it back, they will not come back. They ain't coming back. Or at least it's going to be very hard. Because a lot of these things, guys, they're not organic. You don't have organically that the coins come back another day. It's crypto. What do you expect? Nothing is organic. Very few things are organic. It is what it is.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Michael Saylor
Let's check the MSTR chart. Let's check the MSTR chart. Holy crap, guys! Let's check the MSTR chart. Holy crap, guys!