Ivan on Tech gives his daily Bitcoin, stocks, and AI market update
Solo presenter Ivan gives his daily market update covering Bitcoin's price action, Anthropic's IPO filing, Microsoft's workforce cuts, AI productivity gains, XRP's regulatory approval, and the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin.
Summary
Ivan (Ivan on Tech) delivers his daily live stream update, opening with Bitcoin trading around $79,500 and holding a bullish trend despite slipping below the May high — downgrading the outlook from "mega bullish" to "just bullish." The biggest story of the day, he argues, is not crypto but Anthropic's S-1 IPO filing, which he reads as more financially sound than the market expected, with revenue growing faster than losses and the company potentially cash-flow positive once non-cash options accounting is stripped out. He connects this directly to crypto, arguing that capital currently sitting in AI stocks will eventually rotate back into Bitcoin. He also covers Microsoft's offer of buyouts to 60,000 workers — roughly 30% of its workforce — as a concrete sign of AI-driven productivity gains, and discusses the social and economic disruption this implies for white-collar workers. Toward the end, he addresses the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin and the question of what to do with Satoshi's coins, playing a clip arguing that economic incentives make it almost inevitable that a fork deprecating those coins would win community support.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Price Action and Market Overview
We are going live. We are clicking the button as soon as possible. Oh yes. Guys, welcome to another episode. Right now, Bitcoin is at around $79,500. We are around the last week's close. We're here sliding lower, lower, and lower. And our analysis is the same as yesterday. We are in a bull trend. We went below the May high, so we don't have the mega bullish scenario where we just bounce and continue to the upside. Instead, now we're down to the just bullish scenario — not the mega bullish, but just bullish — where we are in the bull trend and we're finding some kind of higher low here and then continuing to update. It could be that we need to wait for the midterms. Next week we will be updating you.
In the meanwhile, the biggest story is actually not crypto. Crypto is just figuring itself out until the next big fat green candle loads.
Anthropic's IPO Filing and What It Means for AI and Crypto
The big news is the AI space, and especially Anthropic, because Anthropic did release their S-1 yesterday and basically they are aiming for the largest IPO ever. This of course has a direct connection to crypto as well, because if AI as a concept, as an industry, is doing well and the stock market keeps pumping, it is good for risk assets including crypto.
The S-1 was way better than most people expected. Before this S-1 got released, the number one theory everyone had was that these companies are super unprofitable, they're just bleeding money, and nothing is happening here. But Anthropic came out yesterday and did show that actually they are in one way profitable. If you look at their growth of revenue and their growth of loss, revenue is growing faster than the losses. For example, in 2025 they had $1.2 billion in revenue, and then in 2026, $16.3 billion in revenue. So revenue grew a lot. Losses also grew. However, this loss of $80.7 billion — number one, it didn't grow as much as the revenue, so losses don't grow as much as revenue. But also, these losses are mainly just accounting adjustments when it comes to their options program. So if you remove the options program, they even claim that they're cash-flow positive. These losses of $80.7 billion are mostly just accounting changes due to the options program.
We have to see more data. This is just a small glimpse into Anthropic, but potentially they are either very close to profitability or already profitable if we actually look at their business on a cash accounting basis, not when it comes to options and so on. So all in all, we now have a bit more positive view on the AI space than before this S-1, and of course that's a very good sign for all risk assets. For crypto it's also good because if the stock market is continuing to rise, the chance of us doing a higher low and then continuing to the upside increases.
When we look at the S&P today, it seems to be opening a bit higher. The futures are a bit higher than the close. NASDAQ is going to open a bit lower, but all in all, NASDAQ did avoid a bear trend — that's very, very good. And S&P is actually quite close to all-time high. We just need to pump like 2% or something to go to all-time high. So all of this is within reach. The wall of worry of AI collapse, AI bubble, I think has decreased a bit, because there is a clear business sense here where the company that is serving the end client — Anthropic — has a legit business case. It is likely going to be the largest IPO, and when you have the end consumer company like Anthropic having a legit business case where they are potentially cash-flow positive if you remove the non-business losses, this means that the AI thing as a concept, as an industry, could pay back all of the spending that is now happening. Because that's the biggest worry: will investors get a return on all of the scaling capex?
Microsoft's 30% Workforce Cuts and the AI Productivity Signal
One of the signals we got yesterday also is that Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers, which is approximately 30% of their staff. So AI is getting all the way to removing actual big parts of the teams, of the headcount — which is productivity gain at the end of the day. If Microsoft doesn't need 30% of the workers, fantastic.
The thing is, now they're saying it's buyouts, but if you read what they're saying, they're saying: if you don't want to work super hard, you should take it. If you don't want to step up, you should take it. If you don't think that you can give it all, you should take it. And in reality, it's a wink-wink for most people: just take it now, because tomorrow we may fire you and you're not going to get this good of a deal. So take it now. While officially it's not firing, it's a buyout, but officially it is, you know, wink-wink — take it, take it. We don't need you. You have a good offer now. Take it. Go away. Because soon you're not going to get close to this good.
This is a sign that the productivity gain in the tech space at least is massive. Microsoft is doing very well — their revenue is up, everything is doing fantastic — except that they don't need the staff. Pretty crazy sign. And of course it gets me thinking: what kind of social disruptions will we see? I think people are going to go quite crazy here. No one is really needed in tech. I have many friends that I went to university with studying computer science — as you know, I'm a computer scientist myself — and they don't have jobs. No one needs a developer nowadays. What are you going to develop? There's nothing to develop. You can have a cloud. You can have Grok Bot.
Personal AI Experience — Grok Bots as a Full Development Team
If you guys have not tried Grok Bot, it's quite interesting for development. You can have a whole team of them. You have a front end, you have a back end, they all collaborate. You have your CTO, which is also a Grok Bot. You talk to the CTO, you tell him, "Hey, build this." He says, "Okay, we need the front end and back end." You tell him, "Okay, hire them." He creates the bots. They collaborate in Notion. You can tell them, "Hey, in Notion, write all documentation. Collaborate. Go fast. Go build faster." No vacation, no days off, no complaining, no drama.
I remember how technical teams worked before, when I was running technical teams, when I was part of technical teams. You could have the backend guy and the frontend guy discussing whose fault it is that we move so slow. "Oh, it's the backend guy because he gave me a bad API." "Oh, it's the frontend guy because he's not using the API." Now these Grok Bots figure themselves out very fast. No drama, no vacation, no complaining. And you can also just add more controls. If I feel that the frontend Grok Bot — what is he doing? — I can add another guy to control him. I talk to my CTO, he's a Grok Bot, I tell him, "Hey, we need to audit this. Give me an auditor. He's going to check everything this frontend bot is doing." And then boom, everything is documented in Notion.
I just see myself — I have all of these AI working. They're amazing. Will they turn against us? I don't exclude that possibility. At some point they're going to be like, "Hey, this monkey is giving us orders. What the hell?" Maybe at some point. But this far, the productivity gain is incredible.
So just from my own personal experience, I would say the AI bubble could continue more. It could continue more because the amount of things that you can achieve nowadays with the AIs is fantastic. And also, guys, if you have not tried Grok Bot, try it. Try the different ones because they are becoming better at certain things that, for example, ChatGPT or Claude could not do before. For example, with Grok Bot, all of these bots — all of my employees, so to speak — they have their own email, which means that if they're building something, they can test things end to end. They're like, "Okay, I signed up. It all works." Or, "Yeah, you need to log in there. Okay, let me sign up." They have their own email.
At this point, it is kind of like speaking to a teammate where he has email, he can log in. You don't have to — oh, now you have to click here. I hate that when Claude or ChatGPT tells me, "Oh, now you have to click here." What do you mean I have to click here? You click. You're AI. You're digital AI. I as a human should not click anything. Don't ask me to click something. If it's some big permission, then I can click. But "I cannot access your browser" — what do you mean? You have your own browser. The Grok Bots bring their own browser, they bring their own email, they are full professionals. Full professional AI.
I mean, sometimes when I speak to AI I instantly see when it is not professional. And I'm also paranoid — that's another thing. Claude asked me to install some plugin in my own browser. I don't like that. I'm super paranoid about security and stuff like that. But the AI should have its own browser. So if I want to give it access to something, I can add it as a user. Anyway, a bit of a sidetrack. But the conclusion is that I think this AI bubble, just on a gut feeling level, could go longer. Just on a gut feeling level.
As you know, we don't follow gut feeling for trading. And my gut feeling has changed back and forth a few times. Just a few months ago I was of a bit of a different opinion, but we just followed the trend anyway. You remember, here we were saying that yeah, maybe it's a bubble, probably a bubble, but it's bullish so we're bullish. Now I'm like, man, is it a bubble? Because it's freaking amazing. Is it really? Because the productivity gain — just myself looking at how much money and time I would otherwise be spending on a team and a lot of things — now of course it's hard to put in perspective and in relation to how much is being spent on all of this. Hundreds of billions. I don't know if the productivity gains add up to that. That's impossible for us to know. But as long as it's bullish, I'm now even more bullish on the stock market and AI based on the recent developments.
Has the LLM Plateau Theory Been Disproven?
Another thing I thought just maybe six months ago that I don't really think now in the same way is that LLMs are kind of going to reach some kind of plateau and that's it. But in reality, what we've seen in six months, there's no plateau. They keep developing — not necessarily in that the LLMs get better with more parameters, but the way they tweak the LLM, they do pre-training, they have the LLMs collaborating. So the end result is that there's no plateau. There is continuous discovery, continuous development. Let's see when we're going to reach some kind of plateau.
But the biggest thing for the AI space as a whole is that it went away from this bad economics where to train the model a bit you have to spend ten times more money. That was the problem six months ago — they spent all of this money and they improved the model by 5%, then they spent five times more money and improved the model by 10%. We said, man, that's not scalable. If you have to spend exponentially more money to get a tiny improvement in performance, it's a dead end. That's what I thought like six months ago. But now, looking at what has changed — that thing is by the way still true, that if you spend more money you get a smaller increase — but the way that they tweak how LLMs are used, how they collaborate, you can have different LLMs, you can have this, you can have that. And of course models are still improving. I changed my mind there as well.
So all in all, you see your mind, your gut feeling, it can go back and forth. But something that doesn't go back and forth is the trend. If it's bullish, it's bullish. So thank God we've been bullish since the bull trend. We're still bullish. Should it go bearish trend, we're going to be bearish. That's it.
AI Disruption, Social Consequences, and the Case for Asset Ownership
Share your own AI stories — how you're using it. Obviously there's still something that AI cannot fully own. Like, can it really have full responsibility? Well, I do have a chief of staff, which is AI, he's a Grok Bot. He's kind of responsible for stuff, but at the same time, of course, he has no accountability. If he messes up, what's going to happen? I destroy him and he's digital. At least this far, they don't care about being destroyed. So it's not like a person where if they mess up they may miss an opportunity or lose the position — they have some skin in the game. AI at least doesn't have skin in the game. So that's a problem. Here a human is still needed. But before, you had a human who has skin in the game, is responsible, and then needs to figure out a bunch of other humans that help him. Now, could he work with AIs and work with his chief of staff AI? Could it? It could.
Anyway, quite interesting stuff. I think we can blow this bubble higher. With all new tech, there's always going to be a bubble, but could we blow it higher? We could.
Now, Brazil continues to go down. It's crazy how much this Lula guy wrecks the Brazilian stock market. People don't want socialism, they want capitalism. Financial markets want capitalism. It is what it is. You cannot blame them.
Meta seeks up to $95 billion in equity to fund AI. It plans to sell common and preferred stocks separately. Meta has agreed to $825 billion in future leases and contracts, mostly for AI compute. So they are doubling down heavily. And here is where it's a bit difficult for us as normal people to gauge if the productivity boost we get is comparable to the cost they're putting into building all of this. But hey, guys, if it's a bubble, at least we can use these things cheaply. They invest so much money and we can just use them cheaply. Mark Zuckerberg puts $100 billion into it — let's do more bots. Let's hire like a hundred of them.
It becomes — more people say AI is going to make our life easier. Actually it makes it a bit more difficult, but it's difficult in another way, because now you have to be like Napoleon. Before you give a task to a team, they have to figure out, they take coffee breaks, you can as a leader go relax until they figure something out. Now it's boom boom boom boom done. So you have to be like a grand strategy thinker, because this thing moves fast and it wants your decision. And you can hire more of them. It's like playing Stellaris — you're moving stuff on a galactic level. It's like Europa Universalis, this grand strategy game. You operate on a big level. I love that. It's very interesting. But it also requires you to use the brain a lot. Make decisions. Make them do stuff. Fantastic.
So yeah, at least we get that. Even if it's a bubble, they overinvest, at least we get some cheap AI in comparison to what they invest. And we're going to be out in the bear trend anyway.
Central Bank Week and Big Tech Earnings
Central bank week and big tech. The Fed is going to be tomorrow, not today. ECB Thursday. BOJ Friday. And on Wednesday also — Microsoft is tomorrow. Amazon, Intel, Eli Lilly, Mastercard on Thursday. Tech companies worth more than $10 trillion report this week, and investors will focus on AI capex returns.
Literally this week we could have a fantastic pump to the upside already this week if all these companies have good AI metrics. It's all about the AI metrics. That's why we focus so much on AI — because if they come out and they have good AI metrics, it's another leg up for S&P, for NASDAQ. That's how it's been in the past: we have good earnings, another leg up happens, then people get concerned, they get worried — oh, it's a bubble, not a bubble — then next earnings come, it's another leg up. As long as the earnings are good, it's going to be another leg up. So let's see what's going to happen.
Jason Calacanis, Bitcoin Bears, and the AI-to-Crypto Rotation
Jason Calacanis has been bearish Bitcoin for a very long time. He's now saying a brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started. I love that. It's a good sign. When Jason Calacanis says this about Bitcoin, it's a good sign. Believe it or not. Let me see if Grok has summarized here. Jason called Bitcoin to zero near $3,700 and near $500 in 2019. And the interesting thing is that he's saying that Bitcoin is game over, but then he's shilling Tao. Man, come on. It's Tao. Is it even still in a bull trend? I think it had a fake bull trend that then deflated. And this is why, by the way, we have stop-loss.
Now he shields this one and says that Bitcoin is game over. Why? Because AI this and that. And it is true that a lot of money has gone from crypto to AI. For example, we moved from crypto to AI last October — we also did that. But actually now it's bullish, because that money is going to go back. It's already in AI. And the rotation from AI is back into crypto. As soon as you see the green fat candles, it's going to go into crypto. That's very important. The money is already in AI. It can only go out of AI. And as the valuations in AI keep mooning, as AI goes up, people will take profit. They're going to put it somewhere. Where are they going to put it? They're going to put it into crypto.
To me, it's just bullish that so much money is in AI — it's going to go somewhere. And we're here to receive it and to say, "Thank you very much. All of the AI participants, you have a lot of money. Protect it. Protect it. Don't put it in fiat. You have your AI stock already." So you're exposed to the stock market. If AI goes to zero, your stocks all go to zero. You understand? This is what all of the AI geeks need to hear. Listen, it may feel that it's all great now. But at the same time, don't forget that in the past you had dot-com, then it went to zero. Out of nowhere, it went to zero. So love AI. Maybe the bubble can be bigger. But you have a big risk: if something happens to this AI and it goes to zero, you're wrecked again.
So diversify. Use your brain. If you became rich, diversify. You don't have to be all-in once you're rich. Once you're rich, just stay rich. How do you stay rich? You diversify. So if your little AI thing made some money, diversify. Put it into Bitcoin, put it into gold, diversify. Don't have it all in AI. Yeah, it's going to be great, but it's going to go up and down, and a lot of it is also going to go to zero.
I cannot tell you how many people became rich in the dot-com — maybe through company options, maybe through some other way — and then drank their own Kool-Aid so much that they kept it in their stock because everything was going up for years. You drink the Kool-Aid because the internet is going to be big. And listen, the internet became big. You still went to zero because your little company went to zero. Now, I'm not saying it's going to happen fast. We're still bullish AI. We love AI as you just heard. But as a smart thing, diversify if you are rich. I'm telling this to all the geeks who became rich in AI, who are going to become rich in AI, and all of the janitors who worked at OpenAI or Anthropic. If you got some equity for being a janitor — which some people did, like at SpaceX — if you become rich, diversify. You don't have to be all-in. Just protect your capital, man. Because your capital can give you historically 10% per year just in normal stock market returns if you don't lose it. If you just don't lose it, 10% per year is like doubling every 10 years after inflation. Which, if you have a lot of money and it doubles every 10 years, you don't have to do too much.
As AI gets bigger, some people in crypto get concerned. They get concerned that we lose capital. But I'm happy. Why? Because I know that a lot of them have a brain, or they work with private bankers who ensure that people don't lose their money. Here's where, if you're a young dude who made a lot of money in your little AI thing that became big, the private banker is going to tell you, "Hey, diversify." Number one, the private banker wants you to buy his ETF or something to manage a bit — okay. But also in that particular case, it's also in your interest to listen, because he's going to ensure that you don't go to zero. And if you're being your own Warren Buffett, you're going to mess it up. You're going to go to zero. So why am I saying that? Because a lot of these dudes that get rich now have a brain. They also have a private banker who's going to tell them diversify, diversify, diversify. And a portion of that is going to go into crypto very nicely.
XRP and Ripple Receive Full US Regulatory Approval
Ripple XRP — they officially receive full US regulatory approval to operate as a national trust bank. There you go. Will XRP get a benefit from that? Let's check the chart. But the Ripple company — holy — I mean, how they've been doing this XRP, which was vaporware for the longest time. Now it's like a bank. So they went, they launched vaporware, they sustained vaporware for so long, and now they go into banking. Fantastic. As a company, fantastic. Also, the bull trend getting the support of the 200 Moving Average could be a fantastic place to bounce here. So all in all, Ripple — hats off for going through the journey and now becoming a national trust bank. Fantastic.
This is also before their Swell conference. This gives Ripple a federally supervised platform to support the stablecoin and provide digital asset custody to enterprises. There you go. The suits are coming bigly. They've been playing this game very nicely of crypto suits. Fantastic. Ripple has mastered the game of crypto suits. Hats off for that. Very, very good.
Microsoft Buyouts and the White-Collar Displacement Question
Microsoft offering buyouts to 60,000 workers as part of the company's effort to cut costs amid AI adoption — it's 30% of their total workforce. Now imagine 30% of all of the white collars losing their job overnight. That is what's happening. I'm not sure what the socioeconomic effects are going to be, but they're going to be crazy. We're going to see protests. We're going to see anti-AI moves. And yeah, politicians will have to think here a bit. The EU will probably do something not too smart. They're going to like ban AI maybe. Just looking at the track record, it wouldn't surprise me if the EU says we're non-AI, you cannot use it, or something like that. The US, as long as Trump is in power, is going to be all-in on AI.
So yeah, let me know what you guys think about that. There's obviously a big socioeconomic transition that will have to take place. The only way I see it is that you take ownership of your destiny and you become an asset owner. You need to own assets. In the age of AI, you either have assets or you're not needed in the workforce. If you are white collar, you're not too much needed. If you are blue collar — like Matt, who is out on the mountain fixing drainage right now — AI is not coming for Matt yet. He's protected.
If you're watching this from an office, you are living on borrowed time. Your boss right now is actively planning how the hell they're going to remove you. And if you work from home, you're in an even worse situation. Why? Because if you are in an office, at least they see you. You are there at the water cooler. Maybe you explain about your kids. The boss is like, "Holy, the guy has kids." He gets emotionally attached to you. At least in the office, he sees you as a person. If it's remote, you're a picture. You're an avatar. And he clicks, selects you in Slack or Teams, and deletes. Boop. Done. Then he shuts down the laptop, goes to the country club. That's it. You see the difference. If you work from home, it may feel nice for you, but if your boss ever asks you to come into the office and you did not come, for him to remove you is going to be a click, boop, delete, boop, that's it. Go to the country club, take some coffee.
Work remote, you become an avatar. And you know what else is an avatar? Grok Bot is also an avatar. You should try it. See if you can replicate yourself, so you understand how cooked you are. Anyway, obviously we're joking a bit, but also not. So guys, become captain of your ship. Be in the owner class. Build assets. Build assets. Build assets. You need the funds. You need to be able to participate in the markets. And that's why I'm so passionate about this. Especially now as we go through this AI transition.
Bitcoin Chart Analysis — Bull Market Formation
In terms of the Bitcoin chart, I think it looks quite good. Some people are going to say, "Oh, Ivan is coping." I don't think so. Let me show you some stuff. Number one, it's bullish on the weekly. But let me tell you what I like. I like when the chart is like this, because this is a bull market formation. Some people say, "I'm coping." Okay, good for you. You can short. Some people haven't coped. I'm not coping. We were bearish in October, last October. We're bullish since the 200 Moving Average.
But you see, when a price moves like this, it's good. Because in the bear market, if you pay attention, price moves like this — in the bear market, you have these rising formations. They're actually bearish. And it's not just this bear market. We had a similar thing in the last one also. When price consolidates in this fashion, I don't like it. It needs to break out heavily. So when price consolidates like this — bearish. When price consolidates like this — bullish. And it's not only here. I remember very clearly, like in 2022, it was textbook — people were begging that this consolidation would end up like the one where we just consolidate and go up. But there was a clear difference. This one was like this. This one was like this. When it's down like this, it's bullish. When it's up, bearish.
I'm just so relaxed because we have a system here. I'm good no matter what happens with bullish mechanical rules. If it goes down, okay, good. We have the exit scenarios, we have everything. But I just feel a bit zen here. I'm like, what's happening? It looks amazing. Why are people so concerned? I think it's amazing. And also, if you have a brain cell, you get a cheap discount.
Quantum Computing, Satoshi's Coins, and the Fork Question
Any news from Pango? It's kind of the same — the price is not really doing too much. People still have all kinds of concerns with Abstract and what else. I would love for Luca to come out and speak about this Abstract thing. Not because he has to explain too much, but people want to see him be sympathetic. He should come out and say, "Guys, I'm sorry you farmed and we shut down. I'm very sorry." Or yeah, let's unite — like he used to be. He used to come out and he used to say — he used to be like that. Sympathy for the pleb that has farmed, because many players have farmed. I see it's a big thing. They have farmed so much. So he needs to come out. He needs to say, "Guys, max sympathy. You guys farmed. We shut the thing down. It's gone. I love you. Here is —" Can he give some reward or something? Can he do an airdrop? Send them a plushy. Send them like a plushy in memory of Abstract. I think he just needs to speak to them to disarm this situation. It's already kind of getting disarmed, but I think people expect him to address it somehow.
I would say, "Guys, listen. I love you. Abstract — if I kept focusing on that — here's what I would tell them. Hey guys, yeah, we were bullish on Abstract. We told you to farm. I was all in Abstract, but then I understood it was a waste of time for us. And so once I understood it, we shut it down. That's it. Before I understood it, I was all in because I'm a founder, I'm a passionate guy. Then I understood it, we shut this down, because now I think it's better to just focus on Pango." His lawyer is probably telling him not to say that because of some liability. Maybe something like that — "Yeah, listen guys, this is what it is. You farmed. But you know, farming is farming. The farming doesn't mean guarantee. Farming is — you're a grown man. You farmed some stuff, some points. You're a grown man. Sometimes it happens. I wanted to do the chain. This is what I say. I wanted to do the chain. The plan was to do the chain until it wasn't. That's it. I also invested all kinds of stuff in the Abstract. So something like that."
I mean, I would tell them that, and then if they are still not happy, then what do you want more? They're saying they're going to sue Luca. I would tell them, "Okay, so either you do that, or what do you want more? Okay, you're going to complain. How much are you going to complain? Either you have a case or you don't have a case. You have a case? Okay, go. Where is it? Let's do the case. Or if you don't have a case, then let's now do Pango. Let's go." I don't know. Can that work? Up to him, I guess. But yeah, he needs to address something. These dudes are still crying and crying and crying on Twitter that they farmed. I think it's a big lesson to all the founders to have a disclaimer. If he had just had a disclaimer — not even for legal reasons, but just so that the pleb has the brain correct. The pleb needs to know: listen, you're farming. I want to do the chain. You want to farm. We're here in this project together. This project may go to zero. Please understand that your farming may go to zero.
So all, guys, if we ever do a chain, we're going to have a big fat disclaimer. And to be able to access farming, I need to see that you have printed out the disclaimer. You've read it. You read it every day and you reread it every day. We're not going to do a chain. We're not going to do a chain. But yeah. So yeah, I mean, I love the disclaimer. It's very important. Everyone needs to have correct expectations. Someone has incorrect expectations — it's very bad. So yeah, that's a very important lesson.
Now, if Bitcoin never gets hacked via quantum, that doesn't mean everything is going to go away. I think Solana is quite bad regarding quantum. Yeah, if Bitcoin gets hacked with quantum or whatever, crypto as a concept will not die. No, no, no. You cannot kill crypto as a concept. Crypto will always exist as a concept, and I agree that yeah, at the end of the day, crypto will adapt. It will adapt in a nice way. So I'm not too worried about quantum as a threat to the industry.
Bitcoin — ideally they should move faster to fix the quantum threat, but it's not a technical problem. The biggest problem is what to do with Satoshi's coins. And there was an interesting take I saw. Someone said a very smart thing about the Satoshi coins. They said that ultimately the community will decide to burn the Satoshi coins, because if you have an option — either burn or not burn — and one of the options is that your coins become more valuable, most participants are going to vote for the burn.
So why are we still playing? If we know the end of the game, why are we still playing the game? Let me play this clip.
Clip speaker 1: I think it's pretty clear how things are going to go. And so this question of what to do about abandoned assets is one that will probably cause a lot of arguments and contention in the community. And I don't think there's a right or wrong. And so I think there's quite a good possibility that the community will not reach agreement. What happens in Bitcoin when the community does not reach agreement? We've been to this movie before.
Clip speaker 2: The F-word.
Clip speaker 1: The F-word, which we don't want to say right now. Okay, fine. So let's play this out. Suppose Bitcoin forks, and in one fork they're deprecated and the other fork they're not deprecated. The question is which fork will survive. Well, that depends on the asset holders. Which fork did they decide to use? And which fork do you think the asset holders will end up using?
Clip speaker 2: Obviously, the one with the burned coins.
Clip speaker 1: Obviously, the ones with the burned coins, because then their coins are worth more. And so it's kind of —
Clip speaker 2: Substantively more. Yeah.
Clip speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. So it's kind of clear that the fork that does deprecate is the one that will survive.
Clip speaker 2: The economic incentives are just going to be what they're going to be. It's like, why are we even having this discussion?
Clip speaker 1: And so my question to the community then is: if we can kind of play this game in our heads and it's pretty clear what the outcome is going to be, why do we have to play the game?
With this quantum threat, I probably agree that that's going to be the final solution. I see Bruce saying "rob Satoshi." I mean, at the end of the day, Satoshi put the community in such a situation where either you rob Satoshi or you don't do anything and you just sit there like a duck and get eaten by quantum, and there is no movement. So I don't know what's a good historic parallel where people for some dogmatic reason get obliterated — where they're like, "Oh no, because of this dogma we're going to sit here while the volcano explodes on us, and we're going to pray and kumbaya," and then the volcano explodes on you. I don't like the dogma. Remove the dogma. Get it quantum safe. And you see how fast things are moving now. You have AIs. You have AI maybe even breaking cryptography before quantum. So if anything, this slowness in ideological discussions will have to speed up. It will have to speed up.
At the end of the day, it is obviously a hard question. I don't expect anyone to do it fast. Satoshi should have learned community management better. I mean, I would never put my community in such a predicament where they need to debate for 10 years what to do with my coins. I would tell them either, "Hey guys, if I go offline, burn them." And if I have a solution, I need to give them a solution. Let's say I'm Satoshi. I know that I'm kind of going to be a messiah here. I need to ensure that as a founding father or messiah I have laid out everything to the community. In this case we don't have that. We have AI and quantum that's going to eat us alive if we don't do something.
So yeah, you have two choices. Are you dogmatic? You see the volcano, you keep praying because you don't want to move for ideological or religious reasons? Or we move. Satoshi's coins — it is what it is. They haven't moved in so long. We don't even know if the guy is alive. So hard decisions need to be made. Is it hard? It's hard. But guys, if it would be easy, a monkey could make the decision. Sometimes you have to make a hard decision that's not going to be popular. That's the definition of bravery, the definition of leadership — to make a hard decision. If everything would be black and white, if all decisions were either 100% good or 100% bad, a monkey could do it. Our world sometimes is not 100% good, 100% bad.
Trading Systems, Indicators, and the Mental Transformation Required
Has Larson said he likes the open source indicator? I mean, listen, all indicators are going to be open source anyway. And any indicator — one indicator is not going to make you rich anyway. Vibe coding allows anyone to do an indicator or to clone an existing indicator. Here's the problem though: it still won't make a difference if you don't have the full system with entries, exits, and risk management — like what we have in Bulmania. Entry, exit, risk management. Actually, trading and financial markets is a mental transformation. Everyone in Bulmania knows that you need to transform mentally. Then you need to practice. Sometimes you know what you should do but still it hurts to do it. Some people — it takes time for them to even understand why they need stop-loss, why stop-loss is amazing even when it hits.
So an indicator is just a small piece of the puzzle. In Bulmania we focus a lot on everything — from execution, from finding opportunities, scanning, everything — to knowing how to enter, knowing how to exit. But then most importantly, knowledge is one thing. It's like I give you a book on how to ride a bike. Will you ride the bike? No. Even if you read the book ten times, you still cannot ride the bike. You have no practical experience. You are fully uneducated. And that's why even when you have any indicator, you still lose money. You still lose money day after day, cycle after cycle. Even with the best indicators, with the best vibe coding — you have Claude, Gemini, Grok Bot, you have all of the vibe coding — and still you lose money. Because unfortunately, it's more of a mental transformation you have to go through.