Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's position near the 200-week Moving Averages and argues the bear market is nearing its end
Solo presenter Bitcoin and crypto market analysis from the Ivan on Tech YouTube channel.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a bullish case for Bitcoin, arguing that the current price — near the 200-week moving average at approximately $64,000 — represents a historically rare and cheap buying opportunity, with only 10% of Bitcoin's trading days ever occurring at or below this level. He acknowledges ongoing selling pressure from Michael Saylor, miners, and ETF outflows, but argues that the failure of bad news to push prices lower is itself a bullish signal characteristic of late bear markets. Ivan introduces a key strategic indicator — the weekly "money line" bull flip at $79,000 — which he says, once triggered, historically precedes rapid price appreciation toward what he calls "Valhalla." He also covers regulatory developments including a White House crypto meeting and CFTC rulemaking session scheduled for the week, discusses the Fed injecting $17 billion in liquidity, and reviews altcoin projects including Algorand, THORChain, and Supra, consistently advising viewers to avoid altcoins until Bitcoin confirms a bull trend on the weekly timeframe.
Ivan also devotes extended time to warning that following valuation-based bearish signals — such as the Warren Buffett indicator showing stock market capitalization at a record 239% of GDP — is an unreliable strategy, arguing that trend following is more important than ratio-based analysis and that even a bubble collapse would likely dump only to levels from a few years ago, not a decade ago. He additionally addresses a recent SafePal hardware wallet security flaw, advising viewers to use multisig setups with multiple providers as the safest custody approach.
Regarding regulatory catalysts, Ivan notes that the Clarity Act missed its August congressional window with no Senate vote expected until September, and expresses skepticism — though not certainty — that it will pass before midterms given the political calendar. Brian Armstrong is cited as arguing that Bitcoin could become the next world reserve currency, though his clip in the transcript is cut off before completing the statement. The $3 trillion in retail money market funds earning 3.57% is highlighted as a significant pool of sideline capital that could rotate into crypto during the next bull cycle.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin at the 200-Week Moving Averages — A Historically Cheap Buy Zone
Ivan on Tech: Welcome to another episode. Right now, Bitcoin is still at around the 200-week Moving Averages. In fact, because the 200-week Moving Averages is moving to the upside, we're now a bit below it. As you know, the 200-week Moving Averages represents a very cheap price for Bitcoin. Normally, if you look at all the days that Bitcoin is trading — all the days — 90% of the days in Bitcoin history we are above the 200-week Moving Averages. Only 10% of the days are we below or at it. That's why we're saying this is a fantastic buy zone. This buy zone in the green is really defined by the 200-week Moving Averages, and right now that Moving Averages is right here at approximately $64,000. So everything below that is a fantastic, cheap price for Bitcoin.
Now, as we're looking at Bitcoin, it's very important to understand that there are many bad news items still going on. For example, Saylor is still selling — still dumping each and every week. Saylor is dumping and dumping, yet Bitcoin is holding on quite nicely. Also, when you look at other things, you have miners dumping as well — 23,000 Bitcoin dumped by miners is another factor — and yet Bitcoin is here. Yet Bitcoin is still holding this 200-week Moving Averages. That doesn't mean we will not go lower. It's possible that we go lower. But all in all, as the bear market is coming to an end, the bad news don't move the price. What else can they do? They don't move it. We have ETF outflow — another thing. If you look at how much outflow we have, we had $390 million last week in ETF outflow, and yet Bitcoin is holding on.
Look here — NASDAQ and S&P are going to open up bullish. The futures are bullish. Bull market continues for the stocks. And when you look at the outlook for Bitcoin holding the 200-week Moving Averages, together with the stock market, we have a quite nice bullish possibility here that we need to be prepared for.
The "One More Leg Down" Consensus — And Why It May Be Wrong
Everyone is expecting one leg lower for Bitcoin. It can definitely happen — definitely. And as you can see, everyone is selling. BlackRock is selling, Fidelity selling, Saylor selling, miners selling. Everyone is selling. But at the same time, everyone is expecting one more leg down. The number one mistake everyone made in the last bear was that they also expected one leg down. I mean, everyone who predicted the bear market and were quite accurate in calling it — many of them did not call the reversal. Because it's always easy to say there's going to be another leg down.
Listen, we're ready for another leg down as well. But no one can be confident about anything this far into the bear. I keep repeating it, but it's true. No one can be confident about anything this far into the bear. You could be confident back in Q4. We were super confident that it was bear market back in Q4. Now it's not the time to be bearish. Absolutely not. Now it is time to see the big fat bull market that is upon us. And I truly believe that, because everyone who's been on the sidelines, everyone who's been trying to get another leg down, trying to get Bitcoin cheaper — as soon as we start going up, the FOMO is going to be monumental.
The Weekly Money Line Bull Flip at $79,000
Also look here — the bull flip for the money line on the weekly is now at $79,000. As you know, our strategy is to deploy most capital once we go bullish on the money line. $79,000 is the current level. We have come down all the way from $81,000 or so a few weeks back. Now it is $79,000 and it will likely keep dropping very rapidly. So to go bullish on the money line will just require a small to medium-sized pump basically into the $70s. And from there, the Valhalla probability is extremely high — just like here when we went bull on the money line weekly. Fantastic up-only Valhalla.
Bitcoin is going to go from the $50s and $60s to $100K-plus quite fast in that scenario, because just like you see right here, once Valhalla starts, that's why the weekly flip is so important. Before the weekly flip — like now — you can still have consolidation, you can still have maybe another leg down like everyone is expecting. It's still possible. Once we go bull on the weekly money line, the chance of those bear scenarios goes down a lot. So that's something to keep in mind for all of the dear bears out there. If you are bearish now, time is ticking. Tick tock, tick tock.
Bear Market Anniversary — October Is Coming
Not that long to go until the one-year anniversary from the start of the bear, which is going to be in October. Now it is already August — kind of end of August. So what's next? September, and after September it is October, and that's the one-year anniversary. Bear markets normally last one year. And I can almost assure you that there is going to be a surprise element in how the bear market ends. Everyone is expecting a leg lower. It could happen — it could happen — but everyone is expecting it. You ask anyone, they're going to say one final leg lower. It's like this meme with Buzz Lightyear. One leg lower. And then you zoom out and you see a million Buzz Lightyears. One leg lower. One leg lower.
Okay, maybe. Maybe. But calm down with the confidence. You're not smart. Many people who called us wrong for going bearish back in October — now they're bearish. The time to be bearish was October. Now it's not time to be bearish. Now it's time to be bullish.
I can almost assure you that there is going to be a sneaky element, because Bitcoin loves this sneaky element. Bitcoin loves to surprise out of nowhere. Maybe we're going to be buying hard. If one leg lower takes us to $30,000 — okay. If Bitcoin goes one leg lower to $30,000, we're going to be in a very nice spot to double money quite fast. So actually I'm fine with one leg lower, but I'm not greedy enough to expect it. I'm not expecting it, but I'm okay with it. I'm prepared for it, but I'm not confident enough to say it's for sure going to happen.
It's not time to be bearish or confident about anything. It's time to be humble, humble, humble. Realize Bitcoin is cheap. Altcoins — don't touch altcoins. I'm not touching altcoins yet. If Bitcoin goes to $50,000, Solana is going to go to $30. Bitcoin at $50K, Solana at $30. Keep that in mind. Everything is cheap, but altcoins — I stay away from altcoins still. Why? Because while Bitcoin is in a bear trend, altcoins are bad risk-reward. There will be a time for alts when Bitcoin goes bull trend. Now it's just bad risk.
CZ on Millionaires and Bitcoin Scarcity
CZ came out saying that soon millionaires won't be able to afford one single Bitcoin. I actually looked into this. How many millionaires are there? In the US alone there are approximately 23 million millionaires — 23 million, just in the US, not in China, not in Europe, everywhere else. Just in the US: 23 million. And how many Bitcoin are there? 21 million — but many Bitcoin is lost, so maybe you have 15 million Bitcoin that is available for buying and holding. So that's something to keep in mind, guys, if you are accumulating Bitcoin, especially at these cheap prices.
As we have dollar debasement, as we have bigger national debt — all of these things that no one has canceled — no one has canceled the debt, no one has canceled the debasement of the dollar — you will have more and more people understand: holy crap, Bitcoin is the place to be. And Bitcoin is going to become, with big likelihood, the next world reserve currency.
Brian Armstrong on Bitcoin as the Next Reserve Currency
Just like our beautiful, very shiny Brian Armstrong is saying in this video. Listen to this.
Brian Armstrong: "People are turning to Bitcoin as a refuge from inflation and deficit spending, and it's ultimately going to be a check and balance on this kind of activity. If this continues, there's a very good chance Bitcoin becomes the next reserve currency of the world. I think people right now are really feeling a lack of confidence about their money, about deficit spending. And this is not just true in the United States — it's true of democracies around the world. People are turning to Bitcoin as a refuge from inflation and deficit spending, and it's ultimately going to be—"
Yeah. Fully correct.
Trump on Crypto as a Major Industry
Crypto is a big, big industry, says Trump. This is an older clip, but it is also true that Trump understands the time is limited for the dollar and that crypto is a big industry. Listen to this.
Donald Trump: "It's a very funny thing, crypto. I became a fan of crypto, and to me it's an industry. I view it as an industry. And I'm president, and if we didn't have it, China would — or somebody else would, but most likely China. China would love to. And we've dominated that industry. It's a big industry, by the way. In fact, when the stock market went down recently, crypto and Bitcoin and all of that went down much less than anybody else as a group. And we've created a very powerful industry. And that's much more important than anything else. We invest in it, but really that was an industry that wasn't doing particularly well. I got involved with it a couple of years ago."
Yeah. Nothing new for us, but just keep in mind the basics. Why are we repeating the basics? Because it's bear market, and people forget the basics. They get so depressed. They're like, "Why are we here? Bitcoin is never going to work." I keep repeating the basics. Now is the time to think about the basics. I don't see the Maxis speaking about this — about the debasement, about banking the unbanked, all of this basic stuff. It's going to be so important in the bull, and everyone is going to speak about this when the prices pump. But now, in the bear, because Bitcoin is not pumping, people don't remember the basic things. So I just try to activate your brain towards the bullish side. You need to remember the basics — why is Bitcoin here.
Bullish Price Targets for the Next Cycle
My honest advice to anyone still in crypto: double down. This cycle bottom is weeks away, and every previous cycle went to all-time highs after. You already survived the hardest part. Don't quit now. That's how you get rich. Very, very true.
Now, if we are to speculate — how high can Bitcoin go? Can we go to $200K? Absolutely. In the next bull market, $200K is nothing. For us it's not even a 2x. I think it's very, very easy. Can ETH finally go to $10K? I remember back in 2017 we were saying maybe ETH goes to $10K. Even if ETH is slow and does not pump, $10K is not even a 2x from the previous highs. So can it go to $10K? It can.
Here's the exciting part — can Solana go to $1,000? I think it's very possible. Very, very possible. As long as we have weekly bull trends in these assets, they're going to do extremely well. And again, once these things start happening, it's going to be: "Oh yeah, of course. It was bear market and then it's bull market and now the prices went up a lot." That's how you're going to feel then. Now, no one feels like that. Now everyone is depressed. "Another leg down. Another leg down." Like brainless robots just repeating it. But it's not time to buy altcoins yet, guys. I keep repeating that because there is a chance of another leg down. If another leg down happens, Solana is going to go to Thursday. Okay? If it's going to go to $1K eventually, the risk-reward right now is still bad. Bitcoin risk-reward is good. Altcoin risk-reward is bad. Important.
Macro Events This Week — Housing Data, Fed Notes, PMI
Looking at the overall ecosystem, you have the following events in finance — not only crypto but all of finance. July housing starts data on Tuesday. July pending home sales Tuesday. Fed meeting notes Wednesday. August Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Thursday. August S&P Global Services Friday. August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Friday. So it's not the tier-one announcements like we had with the interest rate last week. This is more like tier-two announcements. But still, for all of you macro nerds, you can keep an eye this week.
$3 Trillion in Retail Money Market Funds — Sideline Capital
Also look here — we're seeing US retail money market fund assets jump $22 billion in June to a record $3 trillion. Why is this interesting? Basically, a money market fund is where you store your money if you're not deployed. If you're not deployed in crypto or in stocks, you put it in the money market fund and you get some basic interest rate from the short-term yields. The average money market fund yield is currently 3.57%. All of this money is basically on the sidelines. It's not deployed in crypto. It's not deployed in stocks. Retail has basically been missing out on the stock rally, and retail has a lot of money to buy the next big thing — which is crypto. Super important.
Just like we're seeing the Tether story come back — Tether printing and creating new stablecoins, they created $1 billion last week for the first time in a very long time — the same thing can be seen in traditional finance. If you look at how retail behavior has been, retail has not been buying too much. They are in money market funds right now.
If we look at the Tether market cap at the maximum view, as soon as this thing starts going up in a more consistent fashion, it's going to be a big signal for us. In the bear market, this thing goes down. As soon as it starts going up — happy days. We're going to be living la vida loca, as we say on this channel. You see something similar here: in the bear market of 2022, this thing was going down, down, down, down. Then it found the bottom. Right now we're also going sideways — doing something similar to what we did right here. Then as soon as it started to go up in January 2023, that was when la vida loca came back to crypto. The same thing is happening now. We're bleeding, bleeding, bleeding. As soon as you see some kind of sustained upward movement — fantastic. It's one of the signals you can use to know whether it's time for la vida loca or maybe not yet.
Stock Market Valuation — Warren Buffett Indicator at 239%
If you look at the stock market, it is currently the most expensive ever after the Warren Buffett indicator — basically comparing stock market valuation to GDP. This indicator hit 239%, surpassing the dot-com bubble, the global financial crisis, and the 2022 bear market. So stocks are expensive. They're expensive, but also they're in a big fat bull trend. And people who try to call the top based on some ratio — it's just not a consistent strategy you can use, because things change with AI, with how much productivity is planned, and all of that. There's so much that can still fuel a rally even if it's not sustainable. Being bearish too early, you're going to lose way more money than if you just ride the bubble and then exit when the trend turns bearish.
Even if the bubble collapses, it's going to collapse to higher levels than where the bear sold. Let's say Michael Burry has been bearish since forever — since like 10 years ago. The stock market 10 years ago — even if we have a bubble and it dumps, it's going to dump maybe to where it was two or three years ago. Not 10 years ago. For the S&P, if we look on the monthly, 10 years ago it was here — it would need to dump 72% to get back to 2016 levels. That requires something like the Great Depression. So it's very unlikely.
In most cases, being a bear is a bad idea if it's not a bear trend. No matter if it's overvalued, no matter if you have some indicator in terms of GDP — you need to look at the trend. Even if there is a bubble, it's going to dump maybe to levels a few years ago. And we're going to see it. We're going to see the bear trend. We're going to exit on the bear trend. But don't fall for this narrative that it's so expensive and going to dump because of some ratio. You can spend endless time looking at ratios. Look at GDP and then account for inflation — it's another ratio, you're going to have another number. It's so much. Also, stock market valuation is all about how fast earnings grow. If the growth is fast, the companies are valued more. So there are so many things to look at. Instead, just focus on the basics — the trend. The trend is bullish. We're bullish. That's that.
White House Crypto Meeting and CFTC Rulemaking This Week
Two meetings this week could decide the future of crypto in America. The White House sits down with crypto leaders on Wednesday. The CFTC meets on crypto rules on Thursday. The Clarity Act, as you know, did not pass. Instead, now the SEC, CFTC, and White House are moving ahead without Congress. Congress failed. The Clarity Act missed its August window and gets no Senate vote until September. And it's a big question whether it's going to happen in September, because as you know, midterms are coming up. No one will have time for crypto during midterms. So it's very low chance it happens in September, although not impossible.
This week you're also going to have Japan Q2 GDP, US housing market data on Tuesday, the White House meeting with crypto leaders on Wednesday, and FOMC meeting notes. All of this is going to happen this week. Keep an eye because volatility is likely. Crypto has been very non-volatile, but as you have more information and data from governments, it's potentially going to be a trigger. There are some important catalysts this week that may unlock some volatility. This non-volatile time is very tough for traders in this market — just sideways, non-volatile, very tough. As soon as you have volatility, it's going to be way easier to make money, either down or up. It doesn't actually matter — either down or up. So hopefully these things being discussed will give us volatility. Let's just leave the $62,000–$64,000 range. How many days are we going to be here?
Michael Saylor's AI-Generated Bitcoin Ads
Before the Q&A, we have to watch Michael Saylor. Michael Saylor is going to be doing something today — hopefully buying Bitcoin, or selling. That's the thing. We don't know. Previously it was only buying, but each Monday he does something. He has not been teasing any buy. So likely he's just going to dump on us yet again.
But I love his daily ads. He has a new ad, this time from Monaco. AI slop — always AI slop. But these AI slops are becoming so good. I'm surprised. He really sounds like a French guy. Bitcoin — his voice, his demeanor. It's so nice. There's something with these ads. The more I watch them, the more I like them.
And there's one with a llama. What is this? Bitcoin Esparatto. Guys, what the hell are we watching? But it's bear market. Bitcoin is sideways. There's nothing else to do. It's just AI slop Saylor stuff. So I'm just reporting to the highest engagement content I have, which is this. There's nothing else. Bitcoin is sideways for two months. We're here trying to do daily content. Thank God for Saylor — he gives us something to discuss.
DEX Volume Rankings and Altcoin Fundamentals
Some stats on DEX volume: Solana is number one, BSC number two, ETH number three, Base — the Robin Hood chain — number four. So Base is now actually ahead of the Robin Hood chain. This is the problem with holding up L2 dominance — you're always going to have another L2. Hyperliquid this and that.
Also, a funny stat: 17th of August 2022, ETH is $1,880. 2023, 1 ETH is $1,880. 2026, 1 ETH is $1,880. The chain was immutable — not the price.
Altcoin Project Updates — Cardano, Kaspa, Solana, Ethereum
Cardano enacted Van Rossam in July and Kaspa activated Tokata on June 30th — both are already live. Solana targets Alpenglow. A bit of fundamental updates. So if you love the fundamentals and you hold your bag down 99%, you can celebrate the launch of Van Rossam, which was in July. Kaspa activated Tokata on June 30th — did not help it, it dumped 90%, but okay. Solana targets Alpenglow. Solana still bearish — stay out, be careful. Kaspa aims for Doug Knight in the same window. Ethereum's Glamsterdam lands in the second half. And ADA gets Ploutos in November. That's good — all of the fundamental stuff is coming. But the price will pump only if there is a bull trend. No matter how much you want it, no matter how excited you are, it is what it is.
Midnight on Cardano — Institutional Grade DeFi?
Speaking about ADA, maybe there is something here on the Midnight mainnet. Potentially a bit of leverage trading on Midnight, which is a good use case — the number one use case in crypto is to leverage trade. Let's see what it says.
They're calling it your gateway to private, multi-chain, institutional-grade DeFi. Yeah, everyone says institutional grade. It's like sometimes you see "military-grade encryption" — and it's just normal HTTPS. In crypto we have the same thing but it's "institutional grade." It's like normal stuff. Everyone has it.
Is it more institutional grade than Uniswap? Probably not — for that you need big, big liquidity. How much liquidity do these guys have? Zero. Okay. Big shout out — I mean, I'm joking. It's a project. We wish them good luck. But "institutional grade" — really? Do you really have billions and billions in liquidity? Even if Goldman Sachs wanted to trade this for their fat clients, they really can use Ascend Markets on Midnight Cardano? I don't think so. Something tells me if someone is to do anything meaningful on Midnight Cardano, it's going to go boop and not work. Military grade in hardware wallets — they also say military grade. Which military? Which military? Anyway, moving on.
Fed Liquidity Injection — $17 Billion Starting Next Week
Speaking about the Fed — the Fed will inject $17 billion into the market starting next week. Liquidity will hit the market for three consecutive weeks. Very, very good. Sooner or later it will trickle down to crypto. Sooner or later, guys.
SafePal Hardware Wallet Security Flaw
Unfortunately, there was another hardware wallet issue. We did see another hardware wallet get hacked — SafePal. Do you guys use SafePal? It's both a hardware wallet and a crypto wallet on mobile. This was within the last 24 hours. SafePal wallet — seed phrase and private keys are secure, but there is a flaw in order tracking. So yeah, I guess it's no longer SafePal. Just a pal. You had a SafePal. Now you just have a pal. He's still your pal, but he's not safe. Wrecked pal.
These guys have a hardware wallet, they have many things. It seems that in crypto we are getting slightly wrecked with hacks. The rate of hacks is going up. There is more and more issues being found by agents that are then getting exploited. Could be inside jobs — who the hell knows. At the end of the day, when you have non-custodial, there is such an element of benefit of the doubt. Did you really get hacked, or was it an honest mistake? Who knows?
At the end of the day, you need multisig. You need to have different providers. Ideally multisig — for example, there is a multisig which is big on Ethereum called Safe Wallet. I don't really like that it says "safe" — everything called "safe" is like inviting others to hack it, like SafePal. But with Safe Wallet, you have this multisig where you can connect your Ledger or Trezor or whatever else you have to it, so different ones need to sign. You need to figure out your own way to have a multisig. That's the safest thing.
Q&A — Current Crypto Allocation Strategy
Q&A — Questions, Answers, Debates, Discussions.
What's your current crypto allocation? I tell it all the time. In the buy zone, we deploy Bitcoin between 10 and 15% in the buy zone, and the rest once we go into bull trend. Now is the time to slowly accumulate Bitcoin because Bitcoin is cheap. We don't accumulate heavily before it flips a bull trend. Why? Because before the bull trend it's just slow. It's a good price still, but it's just slow. After bull trend is Valhalla. So before Valhalla, while we're slow, it's better to be in other assets — for example, S&P, NASDAQ, AI stocks. They just moon more because they are in bull trend.
If you are a trader that trades 360 — meaning you trade all assets — you have better bullish assets to be in right now. You can still accumulate a bit of Bitcoin because it's cheap. Mentally you have to be bullish because things are going to change fast, and then it's going to be important to allocate fast into crypto. So if you are a 360 investor with stocks and Bitcoin, it's better now to have most of the capital in bull trends in the stock market. If you are crypto only, then of course you can be more aggressive here — you can accumulate way more. Depends on who you are.
Why Would China Want Crypto?
Why would China want crypto? As Trump said, he meant that they want dominance in stablecoins and CBDCs. China banned crypto, right? When Trump says that China will dominate crypto, it's political talk, but also it is practically true. Many of the big exchanges started in China — whether it's Bybit, OKX. China has been historically very big. And what they officially ban does not mean that they ban it unofficially. China has banned and unbanned crypto many times, but still the industry is big there. It's not like in the West where if it's banned, everyone listens. It's banned maybe for you, maybe not banned for some other people. Maybe banned for the plebe, maybe not banned for the non-plebe. Also you have Hong Kong — via Hong Kong you can do a lot of stuff that is banned in China, which kind of proves the point.
Supra Token Chart Analysis
Supra rose 30% — EVM and reverse bridge. So Supra — once we go into bull trend in Bitcoin there are many good projects. Let's see how the Supra chart looks. Man, but this is not a good example of a good chart. The project is good, but there's some severe optimism on your part if you got excited because of this. It's going to go to all-time low with highest likelihood. The way it looks now, it's going to go to all-time low.
What is true is that it has a lot of volatility within the weeks. Here for example, a few weeks back it pumped 100% — back in May. Then another time it went from the low to the high which was 30% also. So if you are a short-term trader, let's go to the hourly and see what's happening. On the hourly there is actually opportunity to trade short-term. Of course this will not help your bag if you're a bag holder hoping for a recovery. But if you are a short-term trader, there are opportunities. Here was an opportunity — here was another one, it went from the bull trend to the peak, 40%. So yeah, if you are longing and shorting you could make some money. But to be bullish on the big time frame — I feel for you if you really are bullish, because this needs to work for you. I have nothing more to add. If you've been watching the streams, you know my stance on the bear trend. It is what it is. There's nothing to be excited about on the big time frame. I wish I could give you good news. I'm all about good news, but I don't want to give you Fugazi.
Algorand's Protocol Upgrade — Version 5 Assessment
Algorand had a massive upgrade. What's my opinion on their upgrade? Let me ask Bulmania AI directly.
Algorand just cleared one of its biggest protocol updates — version 5. The community is calling it the largest step since staking rewards. Native post-quantum accounts — that's actually very good. Quantum is a big thing, as you know. Resource-based fees — okay, ETH and Solana have the same, but okay. Bigger, more flexible AVM — more powerful smart contracts. Could be important if it leads to use cases and DeFi, but just bigger and more flexible without showing where the builders are — it's not the thing to be celebrated. Oh, we have more flexible — yeah, where are the builders?
I'm not celebrating capabilities of L1s anymore, because we're past that. To celebrate the capability of an L1 was 2017. That was when everyone cared about tech. Oh, you have this feature, we have more contract. But everyone has everything now. Everyone has everything. There's no point in being excited about "our L1." Everyone has it. No one cares. Where are the traders? Where are the coins that pump? Where are the builders? Where are the ponzinomics? Where are the experiments? Are people getting rich on this chain or not? No one is getting rich on Algorand — neither the holders nor the coin creators. I haven't seen any coin on Algorand being discussed.
If no one is getting rich off of it, what's the point? Again, if it goes to bull trend it's going to be good. That's the point in time when people are going to be making money. But right now — okay, good, yeah. The quantum piece is actually the good thing. This is the actual good thing, because now most people don't have quantum. From that perspective, this I can objectively say is good. Everything else — the 2017 was the time for this. Node runners coordinated — okay. Biggest in staking — okay. But no one cares. This is not a lot of impressions for an L1. All chains have upgrades. Coordination — okay. Quantum is good. I mean, that's the only thing that's good. We updated the network — everyone updates the network. No one cares. This is a clean, high-quality upgrade, but no one cares. Native post-quantum accounts — this is good. This is the only thing that's good.
Open question is adoption. Exactly. No one cares about geek tech crap. No one cares. The time for this was 2017. The upgrade matters when it shows up in users. Exactly. Man, Bulmania AI is reading my thoughts. Until that shows up in users — exactly. No one cares. But quantum is good. So price is crap, but again, if you love Algo, as soon as it flips bullish — fantastic.
By the way, guys, here's an update for everyone in Bulmania — you can now publish any answer as an article. You click publish, and now you have this article which you can share on Twitter, print as PDF, print on paper, do everything. It's very nice. We added this feature that you can publish any answer. So you can massage the answer and then publish. Good, good, good.
THORChain — Adoption and Hack Assessment
Did someone ask about THORChain? I'm actually also a bit interested in THORChain. They have good bridging tech. The reason why they're good is because they're doing stuff which most people don't want to do — crosschain bridges where you can be in legal trouble if you run them. They run these crosschain bridges shamelessly, without asking for forgiveness, that are used by hackers and also by legitimate use cases. Let me ask what's the latest on THORChain — how is the adoption after the recent hack?
THORChain RUNE is sitting near cycle lows. Very bad. But what about the adoption? No fresh breaking exploit — there was a hack a few months ago, but nothing super recent. No wrapped assets, no bridges, no KYC. Adoption looks incremental and real, not crazy. Price has not recovered. What to watch next — not too much has happened basically. But it's still alive. Mirror DEX processed $350K in swaps in July — small but real flow. Low activity, guys. Low activity. But when there is a hack, activity goes up. Wait for bull trend. Once bull trend happens, we're going to have Valhalla.
Bitcoin's Quantum Vulnerability — BIP 360 and Core Developer Progress
Who can fix the quantum issue in Bitcoin? Who is in the lead? Is it core developers? As far as I know, core developers are starting to move. There are some BIPs and it is moving forward now a bit faster than before. Saylor is now doing the quantum Bitcoin security council and things are seeming to move ahead.
A cryptographically relevant quantum computer running Shor's algorithm could derive a private key from a public key. Who can actually fix it? Bitcoin has no CEO. So the core developers need to fix it. There are no other big clients focusing on quantum — they focus on their data size stuff, but not quantum. Core developers are the ones that are going to merge the fix into the client. Anyone could propose a fix, but then it's up to them to merge it.
What has been happening? There are specification authors — people driving the concrete proposals. There is no single activated quantum BIP. There is a new quantum-resistant output type — BIP 360 — which is focusing on one part of the problem. Hash-based signatures — we have a few. So development is becoming bigger, but it's still early, super early stages.
The painful truth: lost coins with exposed public keys cannot be saved. This is the problem. Before hashing was added, Bitcoin used the public key as the address. So there are many Bitcoin in public key addresses — and when you send your Bitcoin, your public key is exposed. So there are also hashed addresses with exposed public keys. Any solution that seizes or freezes them would be a political hard fork. So yeah, it's a very big question to be decided.
By the way, I can publish this — I'll post it in the live chat so you can keep reading it at your own time. You can print it out on paper if you want to read it on paper. Fantastic. What a nice product. I'm so proud of Bulmania. I mean, I'm so proud of it. I built this for my own workflow — because I do AI and then I want a nice article I can read and share. The best products are built for yourself. You build it for yourself and that's great.
Bulmania Waitlist and Membership Update
How long is the waiting list for Bulmania? You should have gotten an invite last week, but it depends on when you signed up. I will send the final invite to the waitlists that signed up up until Sunday — that's when we're going to have the cutoff. This week we're fully at capacity, and then next week potentially we open up again. With Bulmania AI we had such an inflow that we need to process the new joiners. Probably next week we're going to have more slots. If you signed up before Monday started, you will get an invite. Otherwise it's going to be in a few weeks.
Investor Allocation — 360 Trader vs. Crypto-Only
What's your current crypto allocation? I tell it all the time. In the buy zone, we deploy Bitcoin between 10 and 15%, and the rest once we go into bull trend. Now is the time to slowly accumulate Bitcoin because Bitcoin is cheap. We don't accumulate heavily before it flips a bull trend. Before the bull trend it's just slow — good price still, but just slow. After bull trend is Valhalla.
Before Valhalla, while we're slow, it's better to be in other assets — S&P, NASDAQ, AI stocks. They just moon more because they are in bull trend. If you are a 360 investor trading all assets, you have better bullish assets to be in right now. You can still accumulate a bit of Bitcoin because it's cheap. Mentally you have to be bullish because things are going to change fast, and then it's going to be important to allocate fast into crypto.
If you are crypto only, you can be way more aggressive here. Depends on who you are.
Car Talk — Mercedes vs. Tesla vs. Chinese EVs
What car did I end up with? I have my faithful stallion from a few years back — a big fat SUV. I like the nice luxury feeling inside. On the road you need big size — if anything happens, you want big mass. I haven't changed it in a few years. For me, I don't really want a supercar. Why? Because a supercar is dangerous. You sit so low, your ass is like on the ground. Who wants that? Also, your supercar is going to get scratched. I want to be the biggest object on the road — biggest mass — and nice inside. I'm a big dude. I need leg room, everything big. Also I need big storage compartment. Throw in all the bags, all the passengers, the dogs. You buy furniture, everything can fit in there. That's currently my taste.
It's Mercedes. Mercedes — how do you say it in English? Mercedes. It's pronounced Mercedes. Germans — I don't know how they pronounce it. It's Mercedes.
Have I seen the Chinese cars? I've seen them online. I've not really seen them in real life. I heard they are good, but maybe they just look good and the plastic is not German. I have low trust in them still. On the road I need max safety, so the Chinese ones — there's something with my trust in them.
People say Tesla, Tesla, Tesla — most safe, number one. But Tesla weighs less than the Mercedes I have. Tesla is small, small, small. Maybe Cybertruck. But is Cybertruck really safe? Because it had this, you know, chop-off-the-finger issue with the trunk. Maybe it was a bit rushed. And as far as I know — and I'm not a car expert — do they have a good crumple area, or is it a big fat frame that doesn't crumple? Because that's a big thing. You want your cars to be big, fat, massive, but also with a nice crumple area. With Cybertruck I don't know — it just feels more like a toy. But I'm probably wrong. All of you Tesla fanatics, don't attack me. If you have big mass but it doesn't crumple, it's very bad. Bad crumple area is not good, guys.
We're at 1 hour 12 minutes. Holy — see, this is what happens without Guzman. No one is keeping track. Time flies, guys. It's because it's so great to be together with you. Big shout out to Chuck and his wife for collaborating and joining Bulmania. Fantastic, Chuck. And yeah, see you all tomorrow. Have a good day and goodbye, guys. Goodbye.