Ivan on Tech covers Bitcoin, AI stocks, and Fed decision on "Super Wednesday"
Solo market commentary from Ivan (Ivan on Tech) covering Bitcoin's recovery, AI sector developments, and multiple major market events converging on a single day.
Ivan on Tech covers Bitcoin, AI stocks, and Fed decision on "Super Wednesday"
Solo market commentary from Ivan (Ivan on Tech) covering Bitcoin's recovery, AI sector developments, and multiple major market events converging on a single day.
Summary
Ivan on Tech delivers a live solo commentary session covering what he calls "Super Wednesday" — a day featuring the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Microsoft and Alphabet earnings, the UK budget, and the Bank of Canada announcement, all coinciding. Ivan argues that Bitcoin's pullback is normal within a broader bull trend, pointing to ETF inflows of $151 million as evidence that money is rotating back into crypto. He discusses Anthropic's upcoming IPO, which he says is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, and argues the company's underlying business is healthier than feared. He also covers the Tesla-SpaceX merger, where he argues Tesla currently holds the negotiating power, and closes with extended commentary on citizenship strategies and tax structuring — including discussion of Turkish citizenship, Richard Heart, and Andrew Tate — as well as a note that Trump has announced he is banning the term "artificial intelligence" in favour of "super intelligence" (SI).
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Holds at $81K — Bull Trend Intact
Ivan: We are going live. Guys, welcome to another episode. Right now, Bitcoin is back towards $81,000. We've been saying that with the highest likelihood, Bitcoin will continue its bullish ascent sooner or later. Why? Because the time to be bearish was last October. And now it is time to be bullish. Why? Because, number one, we are in a bullish trend. We love the bullish trend. We don't want to be fading the bull trend. And as you can see right now, since a few weeks ago, we are in a fantastic bull trend on the money line for Bitcoin. We love that.
Number two — volatility within a bull trend is very normal. There was actually a guy who laid out on a timeline all the times we tweeted "bear, bear, bear, bear, bear" around the peaks, and then down, down, down, down. And then we started to tweet "bull, bull, bull, bull, bull" right here as we were coming up. And that's exactly what we said yesterday as well. Reminder: I am bullish Bitcoin and crypto. That's why, by the way, you should go to Twitter and follow the bull flag in the making. A few days ago, when everyone was panicking, we also said: reminder, I am bullish Bitcoin and crypto.
Super Wednesday — Fed Decision, Earnings, and Global Events
But today, guys, the big news is going to be the Fed. We have Super Wednesday because all kinds of things are happening today. Everything from the Fed and the interest rates — the highest likelihood is that they will hold the rates. However, you never know. And if they hold, then it's basically business as usual. Likely we will have a bit of relief that they did not hike, because there are reasons to hike as well. We have the yield going up. When the yield is going up, hiking may make sense to calm the market down. At the same time, if they hike, that is very bad for the economy — extremely bad for the economy. So the highest likelihood is that they just keep it steady. But that's something to watch out for today.
Also, you have earnings. You have Microsoft today. Yes, Microsoft. Alphabet. You have the UK budget, Bank of Canada — all kinds of things happening today. So likely this will, together with the midterms, clear us for the next leg up as we have all of these different uncertainties resolved. The Fed decision is one uncertainty. Next week it's midterms. Once that is cleared up, the likelihood of some kind of bullish continuation is bigger. So let's see what's going to happen. All in all, Bitcoin is holding up quite fantastically.
The Coinbase CEO is saying all asset classes are moving on-chain. That's also true. All of the basics that people speak about when prices pump — they're still true. However, when prices are down a bit, when prices don't pump, everyone forgets, and they forget so quickly.
ETF Inflows Return — $151 Million Yesterday
Looking at the ETF, we have an inflow of $151 million yesterday. So ETFs are back inflowing. That's a good sign that money is rotating back into crypto. You did see a few outflow days, but all in all during the last week, it's mainly bullish, mainly inflow. And for a good reason.
The AI Trade — Max Extract Phase and the Anthropic IPO
Why? Because the AI trade, you could argue, is overextended. We now enter the max extract phase of the AI trade, where you have the biggest IPOs. Anthropic is doing an IPO. OpenAI will likely do an IPO as soon as possible as well. They're racing — they're absolutely racing to do an IPO as soon as possible because there is a limited amount of money. You have SpaceX taking a big chunk. Anthropic is going to take a big chunk when they do the IPO, and they will list at approximately $1.75 trillion according to the latest filings.
We're now listing in trillions. And looking at Anthropic, the good thing, as you know, is that the business more or less makes sense. I think the markets expected way worse numbers from Anthropic from their S-1, but their S-1 was quite okay — actually quite okay. If you remove all of the accounting losses from options and all of the other things they're doing with their financial instruments — for example, with employee options and all kinds of things that are non-business-related expenses or losses on the balance sheet — and then you look at the actual business, that one is not that far away from being profitable.
So the fear was that OpenAI and Anthropic go public and it's some kind of WeWork scenario where everything is super bad, it's embarrassing, and this whole industry of AI is some kind of fluke. It's not at all like that. In fact, the business case makes sense. As more and more companies are moving to AI, firing staff, and adopting AI — Microsoft fired 30% of their company. Imagine 30% of the company fired.
AI and the Workforce — Who Gets Replaced
Someone yesterday wrote that AI should bring more jobs, so this firing doesn't make sense. And it's true — theoretically, AI should make us all even more busy because things happen fast. And it doesn't mean that now we can relax, because your competitor is also using AI. So let's say you're a business, you use AI, everything happens fast, but your competition is also now using AI. So we just move faster, and people are still needed to manage, to take responsibility, and to do other things.
The problem is that it's not the same people. You know, the people who do front-end development or that code stuff in the old way — okay, they're trying to figure out stuff, how to do some back-end thing, and it takes them five months. This is the video that is getting circulated now of coding before LLMs, which isn't that long ago. This was literally last year. And if some back-end engineer starts speaking to you in this manner, he has no job basically. Now with AI, this kind of conversation should never happen. It's a bit of a joke, but listen — in each joke there is a very big portion of truth.
"Just one feature. Why does this take three years to look at? It's not that simple. All right, I have priorities. My team has deadlines. We have the rules in—"
"I'm still not understanding this. Why is it so hard to display the birthday date on the settings page? Why can't we get this done this quarter?"
"Look, I'm sorry. We've been over this. It's the design of our back end. First, we have to call the Bingo service. See, Bingo knows everyone's name. So we get the user's ID out of there. Then from Bingo, we can call Papaya and MBS to get that user ID and turn it into a user session token. We can validate those with NOP. And then once we have that, we can finally pull the user's info down from Raccoon."
"Yeah, but couldn't the Raccoon team basically just—"
"No, Raccoon isn't guaranteed to have that info. Before we do this, we have to go to Wingman."
All you back-end developers who know microservices can recognise that. But you see this kind of stuff — you have this kind of developer where you ask them, "Hey, can you do this?" And instead of saying, "Yes sir, I'm doing it now, it's already done," they give you an explanation of how it's going to take six months, eight months, twelve months. What is this? This kind of person who is not thinking in AI, who is not using AI — they're not really needed. Those who take pride in the old ways of doing things, it's a big problem.
So now that we are going through the transition, you need to ensure that the teams are really AI-native. And for a big organisation like Microsoft, it's life and death. If they keep their big team who may be against AI, who may be set in old ways of working, who may have been working there for 20 years — you know how hard it is to change people. It's very hard to change people. So you see this transition now where they need to remove all kinds of people very quickly so that either AI can do what they do, and they now bring in new talent for the new positions when it comes to managing AI and working with it. Probably need a bit less people also at this stage.
From that perspective, what is the conclusion? The AI trade as a whole, if this continues, does make sense. If we see this productivity gain where companies can remake themselves around being AI-native with a massive productivity boost — of course, then it does make sense.
NASDAQ Recovers — Trusting the Bull Trend
When it comes to the trade on the chart, you see that trusting the bull trend is the best thing we can do at any point in time. Because NASDAQ is now back bullish, back to the upside. It was two weeks of red. People said, "Hey, the bubble has popped." Turns out it did not pop. People have been saying it's going to pop all the time. Turns out it refuses to pop. The air bubble refuses to pop and instead it is becoming more solid, and it makes way more sense now than six months ago.
We had a long discussion about it yesterday. Jensen Huang kind of said the same thing. The Nvidia CEO said that AI was kind of a risky thing just six months ago — who knew six months ago whether it would go anywhere? And now Jensen Huang himself is saying that yeah, actually, for the last three years it was kind of uncertain, but for the last six months it's actually okay. Listen to this:
"Time, safety, and security — of course recognising that this industry came through a transition just recently, right? It wasn't but six months ago this technology barely worked. And so the functionality — without functionality and capability, what's the point in making it safe and secure? Nobody even cares about it."
But six months ago, he was very bullish nonetheless. And here he's like, "Yeah, six months ago this barely worked." And if you remember, six months ago on this channel we were also saying that — will LLMs scale? Who knows? It takes so much money to train, to improve it, and the improvement is so small. Now it's way different. Even Jensen Huang is saying, you know, this was kind of uncertain six months ago. Now it makes sense.
"Probably the most important line out of this whole thing."
"Recognising that this industry came through a transition just recently, right? It wasn't but six months ago this technology barely worked. And so the functionality — and without functionality and capability, what's the point in making it safe and secure? Nobody even cares about it."
Mind you, this whole thing is about whether AI justifies the spend. And in 2023, 2024, and 2025, you kind of had to go through those three years of spending and almost like R&D on AI. Now we're like, "Oh my gosh, AI can do a lot more than we ever thought." So if you're bearish on AI because of your experience in '23, '24, '25, you really ought to try it again.
No, 100%. So basically, for the last three years, you had to kind of be a visionary to see the full picture, because practically it didn't make too much sense. And we just followed the trends. We were bullish anyway since we rotated out of crypto in October 2025. But this is the experience of AI lately. You know, in 2022, look — it can't even do 2 plus 7. You remember in the early days the AI could barely do simple math. Now, people are not happy because it can't even tell whether simply connected smooth four-manifolds are merely homeomorphic or actually different. People still complain about something with AI where it literally solves unsolved problems.
AI Solves Unsolved Computer Science Problems
It actually discovers new computer science concepts and proves computer science theorems. Look here — an internal model at OpenAI has produced a claimed refutation of ETH. So ETH here is not Ethereum, guys. It is in computer science a theorem describing how computation works, what are the limits of traditional computation, and so on. All of you computer scientists in the comment section know all about it. But the fact that AI can now come and say, "Wait, wait, wait — the long-held beliefs you guys had about different scientific things about computer science, they're not correct. There are ways to do computation more efficiently. There are new ways to think about computation." This is just happening during the last few months.
Then of course all of the math explorations and all of the discoveries — there's a big scandal about whether OpenAI stole some researchers' prompts, or whether they discovered things themselves. But still, you see something is happening here with the scientific developments. And of course all of this is fuelling the AI trade. We love the AI trade. And we're humble — very humble — in the sense that we're just following the damn trend. If it's bull, it's bull. We love the bull.
S&P 500 Futures — Approaching All-Time Highs
Looking at the S&P, it also wants to go up. Looking at the futures, it did open higher. So everyone who is bearish here — get out of here. It's not time to be bearish, guys. In a bull trend, you don't want to be bearish. You don't want to over-optimise for some kind of fringe bear scenario.
On-Chain Analysis — Why Ivan Doesn't Trust It
Whales turning net short Bitcoin — this is not the time to be net short Bitcoin. There's this on-chain analyst — I love the guy, but this on-chain analysis, it doesn't work. He also apologised about his on-chain analysis when he said there is no bear market in October, and then he said, "I'm so sorry, guys." I mean, you can search for it. He's a great guy, an ethical guy, a great guy. But this on-chain stuff — I'm not a big fan.
Now he's saying it's going to be cascading. Maybe it's going to be. But if he looks on-chain, I can tell you — on-chain you cannot see anything. All these on-chain companies — I can tell you, I spent too much time looking on-chain for signal, and it's more noise than signal. Because they tell you, "Hey, this means that this guy sold Bitcoin." It doesn't mean that. He just moved Bitcoin. Why? You know, there's no scientific approach. They say, "Oh, this transaction — we'll label it as a sale." How do you know it's a sale? It could be an internal transaction. It could be just people moving for privacy reasons. It could be a million different things that have happened here. But yet they use some transaction on-chain and make conclusions. Conclusions are impossible to make. At best, they're a bit probabilistic.
But you see, if your signal is probabilistic, how do you use it to see what the market is doing? Because that in itself is going to be probabilistic. You understand? Even if your data is 100% correct — you have 100% correct data — the conclusions you make out of it are going to be probabilistic. So when we see the chart, it's all probabilities. But then imagine the data itself is probabilistic. You go into this inception where the facts you work with are probabilistic, and then the scenarios you make on top of those facts are also probabilistic. So you have a big inception of probabilities. It's very hard to make it work. It's very hard.
Trump Rebranding AI as "Super Intelligence"
Trump says he's banning the term "artificial intelligence." What's happening? "When will the Wall Street Journal start calling artificial intelligence — AI — a very bad and inaccurate name — 'super intelligence,' the name which virtually everyone else is using, or soon will be? In short, we will be officially banning the term AI in all relevant documents and everything else due to its inaccuracy." So they're going to be using "super intelligence." It's kind of a trend now to say it's SI and not AI. All of the hot startups nowadays have domain names with SI, not AI. Anyway, Trump is saying it's not AI, it's SI — super intelligence.
Midterm Seasonality — S&P Returns 17.2% on Average After Midterms
Midterm seasonality — the S&P returned 17.2% on average in the year after midterms. Midterms are happening, guys. What we've been saying — midterms are happening. You've got to be bullish after midterms. S&P bullish, Bitcoin bullish, because midterms remove uncertainty and then we go to Valhalla.
As always when we discuss Valhalla, you should know it can all go to zero. You should pause and read the disclaimer very carefully. Non-financial advice. You may lose everything. Your Valhalla can go to zero. The S&P can go to zero. You buy Bitcoin, it can go to zero. You buy AI — it's a bubble, it goes to zero. You hold dollars, they go to zero. You don't hold dollars, they still go to zero. Everything can go to zero. Dollar can go to zero. Stock market can go to zero. Gold — they find new gold on an asteroid. They make fake gold. There is now alchemy. Read up on the recent research with the alchemy stuff. They can now make new gold in a lab. Gold goes to zero. Bitcoin — quantum hack — goes to zero. Dollar — hyperinflated — goes to zero. AI is fugazi, nothing works, goes to zero. Overspending goes to zero. Tesla — no one needs an electric car, China makes a better car — everything can go to zero. We're just here entertaining and educating. You should print the disclaimer. You should read it every night.
That being said, historically the S&P has returned 17.2% on average after midterms.
The Bear Case for AI — Concentration Risk and Capital Burn
Companies are scrambling for cash at a record pace as the buildout burns through big tech's balance sheets. Obviously we love that AI is working out, but at the same time, it's very hard to say if they have overspent. Nonetheless, this is a question that I don't know the answer to, and no one knows the answer to, to be fair. If everyone knew the answer, it would be so easy. That's why following the trend is so important.
This month, Meta plans to raise up to $95 billion by selling stock, with AMD and Nvidia buying in. Anthropic is preparing one of the largest IPOs ever. OpenAI is reportedly seeking $30 billion. Obviously there is a bit of froth here — Anthropic doing the largest IPO ever after SpaceX just did the largest IPO ever. So there's definitely a risk of froth. Big risk of froth. But that's why we follow the trend. If it goes bearish, we're going to be risk-off. We don't try to predict.
But let's look at the bear side — why, even though we love AI, we would still be bearish in case NASDAQ goes bear trend, S&P goes bear trend. The bear argument here is that all of this investment is not smart. They're investing so much and they're just burning cash in a way that is not smart. As an example, so many data centres are being built. Do you need all of these redundant data centres everywhere? Do you need them? Are they needed? Or is it like building two railroads next to each other — everyone is building the same railroad next to each other?
It's very hard to say. No one knows, because we don't know how people are going to use AI. But that's a fair argument. For example, when you look at fibre cable and the broadband installation during the dot-com era, many companies basically installed the same thing. But do you need more than one fibre cable across the ocean? Not really. So you just need one — just like you just need one railroad to go between cities. So that's a bear argument where all of this capacity is being built. Will it be used? Will it not be used? Do you need many of them? Everyone is raising so much money.
The flip side — here's why it's very hard to trade based on news — on the flip side, you also have all these companies building data centres and then leasing to each other. So that's good. There is some efficiency there. It means that this capacity is being shared and used in an efficient manner. So that's the flip side.
Another bear thing is that all of the chips become outdated very fast. You buy a chip, tomorrow it's outdated. It's kind of like airplanes — you buy a new airplane, but in a few years there's a new airplane and the clients want new airplanes all the time. So it's a very hard thing to have. You need to have the latest airplane, best infotainment, best fuel efficiency. Airlines need to do this all the time, and airlines — it's a very hard business. They have small margins. And if you overinvest into something and then your asset becomes worthless because now this airplane is old and there's a new Dreamliner with the best infotainment and best fuel efficiency — big problem. The same thing is here. All these chips today are good, tomorrow they're not good. How all of this is going to figure itself out? Who the hell knows? No one knows. Everyone who says they know, they don't know. That's why we're humble. We follow the trend. It's bullish now. And we love it.
The S&P may go into — let's look at the futures. How far is it from all-time high? Just about 1.7%. And NASDAQ — how far is it from all-time high from this open? Let's say the weekly close — about 3%. Fantastic.
Robinhood Earnings — Record Revenue but EPS Miss
Earnings — Robinhood revenue $1.42 billion versus $1.43 billion estimated. So earnings per share is a bit less than expected. S&P excluding AI stocks has outperformed the S&P by 6.4 points in October. This one is interesting, actually, because the S&P excluding AI has kind of been in a bear market. And here's another thing with analysing the market — the S&P has been holding around all-time high thanks to AI. Everything else has been wrecked. But now those wrecked companies — non-AI companies that have been in their own bear market for the past six months — now they are building strength. So maybe it all cancels each other out. You know, if you're a physicist, you have a wave and then you have another wave, but it's offset, and they cancel each other out. This one is bullish, this one is bearish. It still goes all-time high. And then they just change. So let's see what's going to happen.
Justin — 94% chance the Fed maintains rates today. Yeah, this is by the way something we could have told you, because our hive mind in the Bulmania newsletter also said it.
1999 vs. Now — IPO Concentration Risk
Look here — 1999 versus now. This is the comparison. 476 IPOs raised $65 billion in 1999. SpaceX raised $86 billion this year, and Anthropic hopes to top $100 billion. The numbers are crazy. Now, in today's money, $65 billion is like $100 billion. And this was all of the IPOs back then. Now you have two of them. So it's a bit of a bearish side because now you have such a concentration risk — massive concentration risk. The dot-com bubble was at least a bit diversified. Now the IPOs are so massive and just a few of them. So that's the risk.
Retail goes to the casino — Robinhood. Fantastic. They go to Robinhood. That's why Robinhood, for the future of trading, is good, because more and more retail gets to trade live.
Tesla-SpaceX Merger — Tesla Holds the Power
Another thing back is the SpaceX and Tesla merger. Let's see how Tesla is looking. On the weekly it's now going bull trend. On the daily it's been holding here. So Tesla is the one deciding the terms, basically. Tesla is the one deciding the terms because SpaceX — Elon can act on himself — where Tesla is the one where they're trying to get a better deal. Currently the way it looks, Tesla is dictating the terms. That's why it's breaking out, also bullish now. And there's a chance that they get a bit of a premium.
At the same time, it's going to be interesting to see how much they can really dictate. Because if Elon says, "Hey guys, I'm only excited if you merge. I'm not excited to do Tesla if you don't merge" — how much can they really dictate? How much can they wheel and deal? If Elon says, "Hey guys, if you don't merge, I'm not excited" — it's hard for him to be excited. But if you are in Bulmania, check your email and also check in Discord because I did publish quite some pages — like an eight-page report yesterday on Tesla and SpaceX merger with the different bullish scenarios for each stock. Short one-sentence conclusion: currently Tesla is holding the power in this merger. And that's why Tesla shares are going up, as they may get a premium.
Q&A — On-Chain Analysis, Beards, and Citizenship Strategies
Guys, let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates.
Can you grow a beard? I could, but I don't like how it looks. I want clean. I don't want to be homeless. For some people it's easier. Some people just have a nice beard. On me it doesn't look too good. I feel better when it's clean. I'm not too much into the hipster look. For some people it works. For some people it works. I start growing a beard and my skin gets irritated — I get some pimples inside the beard. For me it makes no sense. If you have a beard, big shout out. If you have a beard and you're homeless, big shout out. If you have a beard and you're not homeless, also big shout out.
Citizenship and Tax Strategy
What citizenships do you advise to have, where to live? It's a question which is interesting. It's good to have more than one. At the same time, the world is becoming super global, where I don't even know if it's going to help you too much to have different ones. The only thing it's going to help you against is in case they have citizenship-based taxation. That's going to help you with that.
For example, Richard Heart probably had Turkish citizenship because you can get it for like $400,000. You buy real estate in Turkey for $400K, you get citizenship. And also, in Turkey, they allow you to change your name. I don't know if those pictures are real where it says like "Dennis Kaya" — you know, Richard Heart in the pictures at least it says like Dennis Kaya. People said, "Oh, he has a fake passport." But actually it doesn't have to be fake, because when you get Turkish citizenship they actually allow you to change your name to a Turkish one. It's like part of their culture — when the Ottoman Empire conquered, they wanted everyone to change names in the past. Now you buy citizenship, you're also allowed to change your name. So that has also been big for shady purposes, and now maybe they're restricting it.
But see, the world is so global and everything is connected. If you have a problem in the US, they're going to find you no matter what. You're going to live in a cave. And if you live in a cave like Richard did — he had a beard when he was captured there with his pants down. You live in a cave, it's a question of time. So what's the purpose? Because some people say, "Oh, I need to have five citizenships." Why? Because why? You're going to be Jason Bourne on the run if you have to? You understand? It doesn't make sense. And they still find you. Richard Heart basically tried it. He tried — I'm pretty sure he had Turkish citizenship because he lived there. Why not? It's easy to get.
The only reason it makes sense is in case you live in the US and you could get an EU passport by living in the EU. Then you can remove your US citizenship and then you don't have to pay worldwide tax. Some people do that. But I don't think it's smart when some people go and buy some small country passport and then cancel their US passport. You bought some small island country passport and now you cannot travel. And even if you could travel — some people buy like Caribbean country passports, but the problem is their passport changes all the time. Today they have access to Europe, tomorrow not. So whatever — you make such a long-term decision based on current state which may change. Tomorrow that passport may be very bad.
The conclusion here — it only makes sense for taxes. Like if you are US and you really don't want to pay worldwide tax, maybe you can try to get like Ireland, because you speak English, Ireland they also speak English. Go live in Ireland for five years, you can get it. So you still have one of the best passports in the world, but you can remove your US and you can still come and visit the US. Any Irishman can easily come and visit the US at any time. So that could make sense.
But when it comes to the more shady ones — getting some small country, small island to stay hidden — what are you going to do? Where are you going to hide? You're not hiding anywhere. Richard tried it. Look at Andrew Tate — his passport got cancelled. He also thought he would be like Jason Bourne, and then they just cancelled his ass. So these exotic passports, in my opinion, are overrated. They will not help you anyway.
Just ensure you don't have issues. That's a way better approach. If you don't want to have big tax, move somewhere where there is no tax. There are many places with no tax. Just play by the book. The book is quite flexible. The book is made for the rich. The rich don't have a million passports where they hide in a cave. No, they just structure everything correctly. Use your brain. The system is actually set up for being in a position where you can basically not pay tax if you don't want to, if you structure correctly and have the right jurisdiction and the right tax residency. It's all possible. It's done by the rich.