Ivan on Tech gives a bullish Bitcoin and altcoin market update as prices surge
Ivan on Tech delivers a live market commentary covering Bitcoin's breakout from the 200-week moving average, altcoin strength, and the macro backdrop of US Treasury bond buybacks.
Summary
Bitcoin has been holding the 200-week moving average as support for months and is now close to flipping into a weekly bull trend, with the key level to watch at $79K. ETH is leading the altcoin rally with a 17.5% move and is on the verge of its first weekly bull trend since November 2024. On the macro side, the host points to the US Treasury's decision to double its bond buybacks as a de facto early-stage quantitative easing, arguing this is a regime change that is highly bullish for Bitcoin and risk assets. He also covers President Trump's comments at a crypto summit, including remarks about Hyperliquid, the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and the Genius Act stablecoin legislation. He notes that Charles Hoskinson was absent from the summit and criticises Cardano's lack of political engagement. He also highlights the surprising bear-market strength of Tron and BNB, contrasting Tron's roughly 30% peak-to-trough drawdown with SUI's 88% loss as an example of why chart strength matters when picking altcoins.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin breaks above the 200-week moving average
Ivan on Tech: Bitcoin is doing something massive, something amazing. We are no longer at the 200-week moving average. For several weeks — ten weeks, five weeks, eight weeks, I don't know exactly how many — we've been saying every day that Bitcoin is around the 200-week moving average. Not anymore. We're coming, and we're coming in waves. We have used the 200-week moving average as support, just like we've been saying week in and week out. You have to be bullish. You have to think bullish. You have to be green like a freaking leprechaun in your brain.
Being bearish was important in Q4. Being bearish now is retardio. I've been saying that over and over and over again. Look at this — Bitcoin is printing a very nice gold candle right here. We're still in the bear trend, but we're very close. We're very, very close to flipping bull. It can literally happen within the coming week. It could probably happen within the coming days as well. The flip level is at $79K. We are in the buy zone. The big fat flip level at $79K will take us to a new weekly bull trend.
You have a very similar situation to 2023 and 2022. At the end of 2022, you saw God candle number one, and then it took another one to go into bull trend — and then it was La Vida Loca. It was Valhalla. It was bull trend. The same thing is now happening. One Valhalla candle, maybe another one is also needed to go into bull trend. Very important.
ETH leads the altcoin rally
But especially today, we have to look at what's happening to ETH. ETH is up 17.5%, Hyperliquid up 23%. ETH and Hyperliquid are leading. You also have Lighter up 27%, Pepe up 13%. So all altcoins have some kind of move in them — a very bullish move, very very bullish.
ETH most importantly has now flipped into bull. If we close the week — and it's very important to add that we have to close the week — ETH is in a weekly bull trend for the first time since November 2024. Basically since Q4. Of course it's a big thing when an asset that has been in a bear trend since Q4 now goes into bull trend. It's a massive, massive thing.
And listen, I'm going to be loving all of the billion Fugazi L2s if it goes into bull trend. Going to bull trend — fantastic. That's all I need from my tickers. At the end of the day, fundamentals are secondary. The ticker makes you money, not whatever tech they have. So we're going to be absolutely loving all the Fugazi corporate chains if we get the bull trend here confirmed. Very, very good.
Solana is also going to go soon into bull trend at $93. Very important. Then you have BNB — still not doing too much. Avalanche still not doing too much. Zcash potentially going into bull trend — keep an eye. And of course, Hyperliquid got pumped by the president himself. It's been in bull trend since March, going from $37 all the way to $72. Fantastic performance.
Trump speaks at the crypto summit — Hyperliquid and the Bitcoin reserve
The president himself is pumping it very, very nicely. Let me play this clip.
President Trump: "I understand that Mike is also working to bring Hyperliquid into the United States in a fully compliant and legal fashion. He's working very hard on that."
Ivan on Tech: And this guy — as you can see, he's smiling a lot. Some people are saying that he bought PURR, which is the ETF for Hyperliquid, right before this conference. He's very happy. Everyone noticed that he's unusually happy for such a small comment — just that they're going to bring Hyperliquid — but he knows the price is going to pump, and that's exactly what happened. Now we are going to all-time high in Hyperliquid.
Trump also spoke a lot about buying a sizable amount of Bitcoin. Maybe it is the Bitcoin reserve that's finally coming online. Listen to this.
President Trump: "We launched Project Crypto to modernize rules so that our financial markets can move into blockchain technology. I established the United States Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, making Bitcoin a permanent asset of the United States Treasury, which has turned out incredibly well. I also created the United States Digital Asset Stockpile to hold custody of all other digital assets, and that's exactly what it's done — it's been amazing.
One year ago this summer, I signed landmark legislation known as the Genius Act. I named it after myself. I didn't want to use my name, so I just called it the Genius Act — paving the way for widespread adoption of dollar-backed stablecoins, and that's worked out very well.
Every single American benefits enormously from our country's status as the financial center of the world, and we want to keep it that way. We're leading by leaps and bounds. We've gained so much in the last 16 months like nobody can believe, actually. Not only that, but we have more money being invested in the United States than any country at any time in history. Money is coming in by the trillions. Our nation's economic dominance drives trillions of dollars of investments, creates millions of jobs, and expands access, credit, and capital so that every citizen has a chance to achieve what we now hear a lot about — the American dream. Young people are looking for the American dream. They weren't thinking about that two years ago.
New financial technologies are extending this American dominance into the 21st century. And that's why we're focused on creating a clear regulatory framework for pioneers and builders like the people that are with me here, so that they can do business with confidence on American soil. They don't have to go to other countries to do their business. We're ensuring that America remains the undisputed leader not only in Bitcoin and crypto, but also in technologies like prediction markets, artificial intelligence, and…"
Ivan on Tech: Basically, guys, everything is allowed now in the US. Everything is going to be allowed. The SEC just did the rule where if you raise less than $5 million, you can basically do it in crypto however you want. You're going to have a fantastic Bitcoin reserve coming within the coming months — very, very likely.
Also, Stanley Druckenmiller bought PURR again. PURR is the ETF for Hyperliquid. Everyone is piling into crypto right as we're bottoming out.
Addressing the "lower high" concern
People have been asking: Ivan, what if it's just a lower high? What if we just pump and it's a lower high? Listen, anything can happen. Anything can happen. We're playing with probabilities. But the probability here is quite good. Why? Because for two months — for two freaking months — I've been yelling that at the 200-week moving average, you have to remove your bear goggles. Your bear goggles have to be gone. They have to be thrown in the trash.
You should have listened when we were bearish back in October. That's when you should have been bearish. People say, "Ah, what if it's a lower high?" Could be a lower high — who cares? We buy lower. We buy lower. It's soon one year from the previous peak, and that's normally how long a bear market lasts.
I've been repeating the same thing every stream for the last two months: don't be too confident, accumulate in the buy zone, go heavy when we go into bull trend. Accumulate a bit in the buy zone, go heavy when we go into bull trend. That's exactly, exactly, exactly according to plan.
Also, some people are saying that all earlier Bitcoin pumps failed. Why? Because they did not have Ivan support. We've been saying that all previous pumps were fakeouts. We've been saying over and over again that in May, for example, it was a premature bull jaculation — a fakeout, not going anywhere. But Ivan support is here now. This pump, we've blessed it. We've blessed the pump and that's why it's bullish.
We're very humble, as always. We're ready for another leg down also. But this pump is different. It's 200-week moving average blessed, and we are on board.
Michael Saylor's latest Bitcoin ad
Maybe it was all of the Saylor AI ads that caused us to come back, because he did another one. Watch this.
Michael Saylor: "Bitcoin is hope, and I am prepared to do whatever it takes to spread Bitcoin to eight billion people around the world."
Ivan on Tech: Maybe it's all of the ads, guys. I love the ads.
MicroStrategy and the bull market playbook
And as you know, in a bull market, we are bullish on MicroStrategy also — even though I don't touch it personally. I prefer just going long with leverage on exchanges. But just so you know, when it's a bull market, things pump. Things pump in a bull market.
MicroStrategy is potentially now also going to go into bull trend. It's at $139. So in the bear market, we called it clearly — we said it's a bull trap. Now in the early innings of the bull market, we have to be vice versa. Now Tom Lee and I are best friends. Paul and I are best friends. All of the bullards who wrecked their audiences — now we are best friends. We're on the same team, because we are the only ones who use our brains and become bearish when it's time. The bullers don't. But even a broken clock is correct twice per day. So now for them it's correct. We agree now.
The crypto summit — who was there and who wasn't
Now, at this crypto summit, the Chainlink guy was there. He said something about Chainlink again. Chainlink does not pump. But where is Charles Hoskinson? Charles Hoskinson is not great at mingling and speaking. And Vitalik is also not there — but Vitalik is Vitalik. ETH is so big anyway. But Charles needs to put in the work for the holders. He has to be there. He has to mingle, shake hands, make deals. Not in Mogadishu, where he did some deal. If you do a deal in Mogadishu, no one cares. No one cares about that. You have to be where Trump is. You have to be exactly in the room shaking hands, making big deals with Americans. A student ID deal in Africa is not going to pump ADA. Okay? So anyway, let's see how that goes.
The bond market breaks — the macro catalyst behind the pump
But if you watched the stream from yesterday evening, we did discuss that one of the big catalysts for the pump is actually what happened with the bond market, because the bond market just broke. The Treasury basically announced that they need to buy a lot of bonds — they're going to be buying a lot of bonds themselves in order to prop up the market.
Why did US Treasuries dump a lot? Because Japan dumped a lot of US Treasuries. The US is now using their own budget to buy them back, to not have the yield go up too much, to not have the interest rate go up too much. So the US Treasury admitted that the long end of the bond market is broken. Nobody wanted the 10-year, 20-year, or 30-year debt. That's why the interest rate went up so much. The 30-year yield just slammed into its highest level since 2007.
So what did they do? They announced that they are at least doubling their liquidity buybacks of those exact long-term bonds. Basically, they're using government budget to buy back their own debt. Currently, they're not technically printing money — they're just using government budget. But how is the government funded? At the end of the day, the Fed will have to step in. They don't have infinite money, but this problem is infinite. The problem of no one wanting the bond is infinite, because there are concerns about inflation. There are concerns about what the dollar is going to be worth in 30 years if you now lock in a rate at 5% per year. What if inflation is higher than that? Then this bond is worthless.
So they're literally borrowing short-term money to buy back their own long-term debt. Classic desperation move. Bond prices spiked, yields crashed, and futures ripped higher because now the government is literally pumping money into the bond market. Of course, this is the early innings of QE. It's not technically QE yet because the Fed is not printing money to buy — the government is taking out a loan. But at the end of the day, they're going to print. It's not like they have endless money lying around. They're going to print. Keep it simple: QE is here.
Yes, the first part of QE is the Treasury acting, not the Fed. The second part is going to be the Fed. So for all it's worth in terms of signal to the market, QE is here. How do we think about this practically? We think bullish. That's very important.
Treasury announces bigger debt buybacks — Bitcoin plus 5%, gold plus 3%, dollar minus 1%. What does it really mean? More deficits, more debt, and a desperate attempt at financial repression. Instead of addressing the elephant in the room — higher interest rates driven by relentless spending and surging national debt — the Treasury is resorting to financial shenanigans to suppress yields.
Spending is up a lot. Elon tried to do DOGE. DOGE totally failed. Why? Because it turns out the government does not want to be shrunk. And Trump, once he's in office — does he really want to shrink the government? Not really. Why? There are so many people working in government. You start cutting and where are they going to go? They're not going to vote for you. So it's better to keep them for Trump's term. This debt — who cares? His term ends in some years. He doesn't care about the debt.
The debt, by the way, now crossed $40 trillion. That's kind of a big catalyst as well, because it also happened literally yesterday that we reached $40 trillion in US government debt. So it's another catalyst for the pump.
Keep a very, very close eye, because when big market-defining moves happen — such as going from austerity, high rates, and no injection of liquidity to injection of liquidity — that is big. Ignore Bessent at your own peril. Machiavelli's central lesson of statecraft was simple: danger seen from afar can be managed; dangers ignored until they're obvious become unmanageable. Wall Street should apply that rule to Scott Bessent. Ignore him at your own peril, because he just started buying back his own bonds.
The bond market is still treating Washington's new posture as a technical adjustment. That's what I hear sometimes also — "Oh Ivan, it's not QE, it's just a technical adjustment, they increased the amount a bit." No, no, no, no, no. It's not. It's a regime change. I've been telling you it's a regime change.
Bessent is not merely managing the Treasury market. He is beginning to set the rules of the global digital financial system. The forcing function is that with US interest costs rising alongside structural deficits, the long end of the Treasury curve can no longer be left entirely to the Fed. Instead, the government is adjusting rates by buying bonds. Funding costs are now a question of fiscal capacity, geopolitical power, and financial stability. Bessent has made the direction explicit: the administration will do what it takes to lower the yields.
Treasury's decision to double buybacks to $4 billion is nominally a liquidity measure. Yet the promise of further detail on future buybacks matters more — it suggests that Treasury's market management toolkit is widening. Before, here's the big change where most people are going to miss the forest for the trees. They're going to miss it because technically it's not QE, because it's not the Fed doing the printing. But practically it is — the result is the same: more liquidity in financial markets.
And this time it's going to be even worse than QE. Why? Because the Fed is technically apolitical. When the Fed did QE, it wasn't super connected to the president — although informally of course there are big connections, but technically the Fed is disconnected from the government. So they did QE, big pump in market, big liquidity injection. Now the QE is going to be way bigger because it's done by the government, and the government wants to stay in power. The government needs money to give to bondholders. When they remove the yield, when they take down the yield, now they have more budget to spend on healthcare and whatever else they spend on.
So yeah — big shifts, big regime change. We are bullish. We have been bullish. Practically, what do we do? Deploy slowly before the bull flip. Maybe you deploy at 10–15%. Some people want to deploy a bit more. But the key is here: once we go bull trend, Valhalla — big fat Valhalla is going to happen.
Q&A — Solana, Polkadot, altcoin picks
So guys, that's an overview of the market. Let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates. Very important time in the market. Could be a lower high — it could. Again, we're ready for all developments. Is it a lower high? We buy more if it goes lower. But with this pump, it's just a less likely scenario.
Also, guys, it's September in about a week. Tick tock — we're soon one year from the previous peak, and that's normally how long a bear market lasts. For the bears, there's still a story, but it's a small, tiny, tiny story. It's very small. And at the end of the day, there's no certainty in the market. I don't know what's going to happen, even though we've played the market so nicely — both in bear and bull. But I'm not Nostradamus. It's just that we're great at playing the probabilities.
Each and every day we come into the arena, anything can happen. So we just place our bets in a way where whatever happens, we're good. In the buy zone, we accumulate slowly. So when it pumps, we already have a bag and it's easier for us to buy even more, instead of begging for it to dump. Instead of begging and praying that it's a fakeout — many people now are begging and praying. I see that on Twitter and YouTube in different places. People really, really try to communicate that they hope it's going to go down. We're not like that. If it goes lower, good — we buy more there. So anyway, we are set in all ways.
Ivan on Tech: Harsh asks: Ivan, talk about Solana. Do you think $30 is still possible?
As we get closer to the bull flip, $30 is becoming less and less possible. Should we go bull here, I will make a video — Solana to $300. In a bull trend, it's simple. Should Solana go bull here — we're very close — and close the week bull, we're bull then. So if you're still holding and you're ready to hold maybe for another year, it could go back to $300. It could. But for me, the bull signal is the bull trend right here. If it closes the week above the bull flip, fantastic.
Ivan on Tech: Someone asks about Polkadot.
DOT is not doing too well. The price is not pricing, guys. I mean, with DOT it has a small pump but it's fito — it's phenito. I don't know what's happening. It's in a bear trend, we cannot be bullish. Even though in my heart somewhere I love DOT. In my heart somewhere it was a nice idea. They had great tech. But I mean, at the end of the day — we needed the pump. The pump did not arrive. And yeah, that's it.
Ivan on Tech: Someone asks: if you had to choose three altcoins for the next bull, what would they be?
If you want to keep it simple, ETH, Solana, Hyperliquid should be enough. If you want to be more risky or have more of them, then add Zcash and have a smaller allocation to something like Doge. Doge likely is going to come back — in all bull markets it comes back. It's one of these meme bets you can make without thinking too much. If you want access to the meme world, you can either go into the trenches and get wrecked — most people get wrecked in the trenches — or you just buy Doge because Doge does well in all bull markets. It's so old. People know Dogecoin. Doge is Doge.
But only do it in bull trend. Hyperliquid is in bull trend. ETH is going to be in bull trend if we close the week. Solana needs to go to $93 before it goes to bull trend — so it's still bear.
Chinese coins — Tron and BNB show surprising strength
Also, guys, don't underestimate the Chinese comrades. With Tron, for example, and with BNB — they had such an insane bear market with so much strength. I'm so surprised, so amazed by the strength in these coins. If Tron goes to all-time high and goes to bull trend, it's a very, very big signal.
Just look at the bear market — what bear market? It pumped a lot and then it kind of just consolidated around all-time highs for the entire bear. And this is Tron, you know. People are spitting on Tron. People are saying Tron is a scam. People have been saying so many bad things about Tron in the ETH community, for example. But look how strong it is. So this is also a signal for me that as soon as they go bull trend, the risk-reward is quite good.
BNB is also not as good, but better than most — to be fair, better than most. How they have held. They did go to the 200-week moving average. Bitcoin, for example, went below the 200-week moving average. So if you look relatively, BNB has also been quite good.
Then you have the tragedies, like SUI — it's very tragic. Big tragedy. Maybe if it goes bull trend it's interesting, but this is bad execution. Very, very bad execution in the bear. Look at the loss here in the bear — SUI, 88%. In comparison, let's see how much Tron lost in the bear. From the peak in the bull market to the low — it was just 30%. So you see, it's very interesting how everyone was so bearish on the Chinese, and they kind of delivered. At least Tron and BNB.
Zcash is also super strong, obviously around all-time high. You want strong. You want strength. That's the thing. You want strength. It's time to be in strength. You don't want to pick up some weak thing which has collapsed and buy it because it's super cheap. Normally things that have collapsed have no signal in them — they don't come back. Some of them will, but most altcoins don't come back in the next bull. You want a nice trend and nice strength. Strong charts do well.
Hyperliquid is one of them — basically held highs throughout the bear. Zcash is strong. So to answer your question, make your picks, but in short it's the bull trend — that's the only thing. And set a stop loss. So in case it is a fakeout, you're out. You don't care.
Live market action — Bitcoin surging in real time
In real time as I'm covering this, Bitcoin is going higher. The market is feeling the Ivan support, as we call it, because as I'm speaking, it's literally going higher. We are the chart whisperers. All past rallies failed because Ivan was not supporting. Now we're supporting. The chart is whispering in real time and we're going higher. Very nice. Fantastic.
Scanning other altcoins — Venice AI, Near, Zcash, Backpack, Lighter
Ivan on Tech: Someone is shilling Venice AI. Let's see Venice AI. Also strong — you can argue it is a bit of a narrative play. They're very close to bull trend, just a few dollars away. It's also strong because you can see how they've been pumping in the bear and then just consolidating. The AI narrative is not going to go anywhere, so in case the AI narrative continues, they will be feeding off of that.
TAO — I wouldn't touch it yet. Fetch AI — wouldn't touch it either.
Let's check the ones that did have a pump. Venice is one. Near — let's see what Near is doing. Bear trend, don't touch. Zcash looking good, soon bull trend. Looking very strong actually, even though it's still bear trend — looking very, very strong.
Hyperliquid — very strong. Let's see Backpack on Solana — also quite strong. It's a new trend here. So I would actually go into the hourly because it's a new asset, new trend. In the beginning, looking at the lower time frames could be better, because when it's a new asset without history, looking at too big a time frame may not make sense. So yeah, Backpack is strong.
Then Lighter — let's see. Lighter is also super strong, guys. There are many coins that are doing well. Lighter looks exactly like Hyperliquid. Very important. Many of them are going to all-time high.
Pulse and Hex — a community update
Ivan on Tech: Richard Heart's coin — yeah, we actually tweeted about it. Matt told me yesterday that Pulse is in bull trend. So I said, basically we were the only ones checking in on the community throughout the whole bear. Without us, Palicans would not have had anything to speak about. We held the community together. We held the community together, because imagine without us covering their misery — there would be no one to discuss. It would just be misery. We covered the misery. We held the community together. They had something to comment about. We gave them free engagement.
And now they are indeed — if it can close here like this, fantastic. So without us, I don't know what they'd have been doing. But with us, they actually had a chance. We gave them one final chance at redemption, and they seem to be taking it for now. Hexicans are thanking me for keeping their community together, and yes indeed, we have successfully been holding them together in a nice way.
If they don't dump like they normally do — I mean, the Hexicans and Palicans, they're world record holders at dumping — I'm not too hopeful. But in case they hold, bull trend is bull trend. We don't discriminate. Bull trend is bull trend. And especially when we play such a role in keeping the community together.
Bitcoin price target and the diminishing returns debate
Ivan on Tech: What is Bitcoin going to pump to? Well, just to speculate — our strategy is not about predicting. I don't know where Bitcoin is going to go. But if I'm to speculate, I think it's going to go to around $300K, based on the fact that it's just a 2x, and all of the problems in the government are accelerating. They're not decelerating. I don't really believe in diminishing returns because of that, because the problems are accelerating.
Look at Bitcoin's valuation. You have Anthropic being worth more than Bitcoin — just one company, with their valuation in private markets now worth more than Bitcoin. So I don't think it's diminishing returns, because there's no diminishing returns in big tech. Big tech just keeps mooning and mooning and mooning.
At least $300K. But if we go bear trend before that, I'm bearish. You understand? If we go bear trend before that, I'm bearish. So we just follow the trend. That's why this is not really part of my strategy. I will not be waiting for $300K. If we go bear before that, I'm out. And I will not be selling at $300K if the bull trend continues higher.
Where is the diminishing return in Nvidia? There's no diminishing return. So throw this diminishing return thing out of your brain. There's no diminishing return. There is a big return. Big fat return. And that big fat return is going to be confirmed once we go into bull trend right here. Once we go into bull trend right here, we just ride it to Valhalla. Is it $300K? Maybe it's $500K, guys. The problem is systemic.
You look at the US — it's actually one of the strongest economies. We speak about how bad the debt is and so on, but the US is the best. It's bad, but it's the best. You understand? That's where all the growth happens. All of the innovation. That's where you have the strongest finances. They are the world reserve currency. US is the best and they're bad. Look at France — look at the debt in France, look at the yield in French bonds, highest in 20 years. Look at the UK — bond yields in the UK, highest in 20 years. So the US is like the best, but it's bad, and the whole world is even worse. That's why you will need Bitcoin, and that's why there's no diminishing return in a hyperinflation scenario when currency is inflating. Which diminishing return? It's like Weimar Republic — which diminishing return? Accelerating return, actually.
So let's see what's going to happen. But just remove this diminishing returns idea from your brain, because it kind of caps your thinking. Just follow along with the trend. Maybe it is diminishing — if we go to bear trend at $250K, we're bearish. That's it. Maybe then it's diminishing. But I think it's very possible that it's not diminishing, because of big tech.
Look at the pump. The whole world more or less is getting reconfigured now with AI, with productivity, with how big we're thinking. This is very important in terms of psychology — everything is trillions now. Companies go IPO, everyone IPOs at a trillion. SpaceX — trillion. OpenAI — they want to go at a trillion. Anthropic — they want to go at like $1.5 trillion. Everyone is now thinking in trillions, which means that all valuations have to catch up to that. If that's the new way of thinking — trillions in financial markets, new IPOs at trillions — all other assets of course need to be measured in relationship to that. Just like when your neighbor sells a house for an expensive price, your house is now measured against that. So your house is also going to be more expensive if you want to sell it.
So it's not diminishing — it's accelerating return. If the trend allows. Inshallah, we go $300K. Exactly. Guys, we're just humble observers.