Bitcoin's CVDD indicator analysis and digital asset treasury performance review
A solo presenter from Digital Asset News analyzes a Bitcoin bottom indicator and reviews the state of Bitcoin treasury companies in 2026.
Summary
The host from Digital Asset News examines the Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed (CVDD) indicator, which has accurately marked Bitcoin's absolute bottom in every prior cycle — 2015, 2018, and 2022 — and currently points to a potential bottom around $48,000. He notes this is not a guarantee but a historically reliable signal worth monitoring. He then shifts to reviewing the performance of Bitcoin treasury companies, several of which are down 50–88% over the past year, with some shutting down or pivoting away from Bitcoin entirely. He also notes that Jack Mallers has stepped down from 21 Capital, which is down 54% since its May 2025 launch. He closes with a range of analyst price predictions for Bitcoin's cycle bottom and peak, and takes viewer questions.
Regarding company-specific pivots: Mara Holdings has been pivoting into AI storage space and electrical usage infrastructure, while Adam Back's Bitcoin Center Treasury sold half its Bitcoin stack to pivot into AI data centers after its SPAC merger with Cantor Fitzgerald stalled. Satsuma (associated with Mark Moss) is shutting down entirely and liquidating its 668 Bitcoin.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
The CVDD Indicator and Bitcoin's Historical Bottoms
Host: In our never-ending endeavors to find what the actual bottom is, there was a new indicator I had to take a look at — the CVDD. This is actually from Crypto Rover, which is a pretty good follow over on X. It talks about how Bitcoin has never bottomed without touching the CVDD indicator, and I had to take a look at this. One of the good places to look at it is Bitcoin Magazine Pro. I was kind of suspicious of the claim that it has to hit that level, because Bitcoin doesn't have to do anything. But after taking a look at this chart, I can say that yes, it actually did hit these levels and it did mark the absolute bottom each time.
First of all, what is CVDD? CVDD stands for Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed. When coins are sent between wallets, the transaction has two things going for it: it has a USD value, and it also destroys a time value in terms of how long the original investor held their coins. Value then is coin days destroyed as it moves over time. So if you have Bitcoin in a wallet for a week, a month, or over five years, then when that Bitcoin moves, you have coin days destroyed — or cumulative value coin days destroyed.
Taking a look at that, we can see that this does actually hold water. Could this mean that we hit $48,000 potentially? It's a long shot, but if that's what it is, it's just something to take a look at.
CVDD Calling the 2015, 2018, and 2022 Bottoms
We can see here that in 2015 it did mark the bottom. Let me blow this up so you can see it. Very precise. Look at that — it's perfect. January 14th, 2015, $176. Who wouldn't like to have bought Bitcoin at that point? I didn't even hear about it until later.
Then we can come over here and take a look at 2018, a little more precise. Look at that — unbelievable. December 14th, 2018, it touched, ever so elegantly, at a price of $3,185. I remember this time. I remember doing the research and thinking, "This thing is worthless. I can't believe I bought this at $8,500. I'm a moron." Now here we are, and that was at $3,000.
And if we go to the most recent, which would be 2022 — I'll be damned. Look at that. November 21st, 2022, $15,778. So this green line has called all three bottoms rather successfully.
Now, does this mean it has to trigger? No. As you might remember, how many indicators actually fired for the top of the Bitcoin movement? None. None of them fired. So we have to take this with a grain of salt. However, I think it's a little bit easier to call the bottoms — the tops are just anyone's best guess.
Where the CVDD Line Sits Today
I can tell you that the $48,000 level, as mentioned in the post, is where this line currently sits. If we take a look at this CVDD line, we've gone from $46,586 back at the beginning of the year. The bottom was supposed to be around $46,000, but we didn't hit that, and the price has been slowly trending up. Here we are at March 4th, 2026, it was $47,224, and now as of July 22nd it's at $48,471.
So by the time this actually hits the bottom — whenever that is, if it actually happens — let's say we're in October. I still think $50,000 could be the bottom, not $48,000 or $49,000. It is just something to pay attention to.
Catalysts That Could Push Bitcoin Lower
The question then is: what are the catalysts that can get us lower? This has been a kind of interesting bear market — it hasn't been as bad as 2022.
One we've been talking about for the last three days, even though I don't think it's ever going to pass, is the Clarity Act. We've already talked about that to death. I'm bored with that topic. We'll see what happens.
The next thing I can see actually happening is digital asset treasuries — most specifically Bitcoin. I put this post out this morning at 12:59, and it said: "Who would have thought that the Bitcoin treasury companies of 2026 would be the FTX, Voyager, and Celsius's of 2022?"
To be honest, that's a little harsh. I think that's not completely accurate, because FTX, Voyager, and Celsius totally collapsed. The digital asset treasuries are pretty much down, and they're down a lot, but it's not quite the same thing.
Bitcoin Treasury Company Performance
I took a look at BitcoinTreasuries.net. We can see the top 25 and how the Bitcoin holdings are. You have Strategy as number one with 843,000 Bitcoin — they're going to hit a million at some point. Then 21 Capital, that was Jack Mallers. Then Metaplanet, Mara Holdings — I'll talk about that in a second — Bitcoin Center Treasury Company, Bullish, and some others.
As a reminder, Strategy is down, over the last year — a 365-day time frame — 77%. But as a reminder, back in 2022 they were down 85%. Just verbalizing that, I just realized something interesting. From 2017 to 2018, Bitcoin went down 85%. Then from 2021 to 2022, it went down 77%. And that's pretty much the exact same thing going on right now with Strategy — 85% in 2022, 77% right now. I don't know if it's going to keep going down, but that was an interesting combination. A little bit of a pattern. Anyhow, I digress. Strategy is not as bad as before, but 77% is pretty substantial.
Also, Jack Mallers just came out and said he's stepping down, but the company is still going on. It's because they couldn't see eye to eye. I applaud Jack for that decision. We'll see how it works out. But they're down 54%. And as a reminder, they're fairly new — May 2nd, 2025 wasn't too long ago. If you're an investor, I'm sure you're not too happy.
Also, Metaplanet is down roughly 52%. Mara Holdings is down 88% on paper, but that actually isn't entirely accurate because Mara Holdings is a Bitcoin mining operation and they also have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. What you notice about their chart is that they didn't get into Bitcoin mining until around 2018 or 2019 — they were pretty flat before that. So they're actually up from their starting point. But they have offloaded a bunch off their balance sheet and have been pivoting into AI — not specifically AI and chips, but more so storage space and electrical usage. So that'll be Mara Holdings.
Also, Bullish is down 65%.
Let's not forget Satsuma, which I believe was Mark Moss's Bitcoin treasury. They are actually shutting down — they're going to sell all 668 Bitcoin, return the capital, and shut down the company. And Satsuma joins Adam Back's Bitcoin Center Treasury, whose SPAC merger with Cantor Fitzgerald stalled, had to be renegotiated, and which sold half its Bitcoin stack to pivot into AI data centers. Nothing wrong with that — that's just pretty much how things go. I feel bad for people who got into that investment, but that's why we say all investments carry risk.
Drawdown History and Where the Bottom Might Be
Those are the catalysts that could lead us lower. As I've talked about before, from the top to the bottom in 2013 it was an 86% drawdown. 2017 to 2018 was 85%. 2021 to 2022 was 77%.
If we go by the last numbers, we're only down 49% from the top, which still sucks — it's not the greatest, but it depends on how you look at it. If you look at it as an accumulation opportunity, everything's fine. If you're diamond-handing through it, you're thinking, well, this isn't so great.
If we go forward and follow this along to the bottom — roughly November 2022 at 75% — if we go 75% from the all-time high, we'd be at $30,978. But remember there are diminishing returns and diminishing volatility. That's why you go from 86 to 85 to 77. I still say somewhere around $50,000 to $60,000 is a reasonable number for where we're going. We've already hit $58,000. So I don't expect it to go down to $38,000 or something like $20,000, like Peter Schiff expects.
Analyst Price Predictions
If you want to take a look at some of the different price predictions that are out there, over on the website Vantage Crypto there's a tab that says Profits, which takes you to the price predictions website. Generally, I think Peter Brandt is going to win this one. He thinks it's going to be somewhere between $40,000 and $60,000, September to October 2026 — he's probably going to win. Crypto Rover is between $40,000 and $50,000. That would be interesting to see if it still drops more — it definitely could. Also Dr. Profit at $40,000 to $50,000. Then here's Peter Schiff at $20,000 — at least he didn't say zero. I think he's learning some things.
And then here are some of the more optimistic ones. Standard Chartered says $100,000 by 2026. Arthur Hayes, who is all over the place, says $125,000 by December 2026. Bitwise says $150,000. Bernstein says $150,000 to $200,000. Robert Kiyosaki, Raoul Pal — $450,000 — and so on and so forth.
There's also a section called Pros vs. Joes where viewers can put in their own predictions. Looking at it right now, I can tell you that you guys are probably going to outpace the more extreme calls. North Viking has it at $56,000 — that's pretty good. Raven Fat Sonic at $49,000 — that's reasonable. Master Bitcoin at $50,000. Echo's got it at $69,000 — very brave. Gabul at $181,000 by September 2026 — I don't think it's going to happen, but whoever gets it right, I like to reward them.
Q&A
Host: Fat Sonic says, "It's more fun to try to predict this year, but the years in between leave much to the imagination." Yeah, I don't like the 2028 halvings for prediction purposes. I think we could probably get into that, but that's about it. I have no ambition for 2027 — it's just going to be accumulation years, and that's pretty much it for 2026 now.
Fairfax said it's too early to predict. I know, but that's what makes it fun.
Bobby says Bitcoin at $35,986.96. That's reasonable. Sounds like a Raoul Pal call.
Ablam says, "If $40,000 doesn't happen, will I miss out? Not a big deal — there's a life outside of magic internet money." And that's why I buy every Monday, because I just don't think we're going to see this precise low and I'm going to load up at that point. As we go lower, the risk levels go lower, so I just keep buying a little bit more.
Bowden says, "Not buying until under $61,000." That sounds pretty good. I'm not even going to buy alts on that one — that's pretty smart. I don't think alts are going to do too well. I think we're going to see another leg down, but we'll see.
Lone Wolf says, "Adam Back potentially Satoshi says $10 million by 2032." I'd be happy with $1 million by 2032. And if that's the case, remember everybody — start thinking about tax minimization strategies now. Because if it does hit $1 million and you've got however many Bitcoin you have, it's kind of important to have some kind of strategy in place. You can do loans, but I can tell you from personal experience that sometimes that is not the best route.