Bitcoin hits rare buy-zone indicators as 2022 market patterns repeat
Rob and Jerry Hall discuss Bitcoin market indicators, AI security risks, and long-term investment strategy on the Digital Asset News channel.
Summary
Rob and Jerry Hall discuss the striking similarities between current Bitcoin market conditions and the 2022 bear market cycle, using Ben's Summary indicator — which aggregates price, on-chain, and social metrics — to argue that Bitcoin has entered a historically rare buy zone at approximately 0.17–0.18. Simon Dixon's analysis of institutional Bitcoin accumulation strategies is presented, arguing that entities like BlackRock and MicroStrategy are engineering price movements to acquire Bitcoin from retail holders. The episode also covers a significant AI security development: Anthropic's Mythos LLM reportedly demonstrated the ability to identify vulnerabilities in banking systems and drain accounts during a closed-door demonstration, raising concerns about the pace of AI-driven financial threats. Jerry Hall shares his personal shift from a Bitcoin-only DCA strategy to a 70/30 Tesla/Bitcoin allocation, and the episode closes with discussion of X Money's new 6% APY cash product and the importance of teaching compounding interest to children — illustrated through a live compound interest calculator demonstration and Jerry's story of first investing at age 12.
The episode also features an extended cautionary discussion of pig butchering scams, prompted by a real-life anecdote in which Rob intervened to prevent an elderly acquaintance from sending $90,000 to fraudsters, with both hosts warning that AI will make such scams significantly worse.
Key clarification on indicators: the Bitcoin risk level reached approximately 0.53 at a point Rob considered insufficient to signal a top, while he believed $71,000 represented a more compelling accumulation signal — illustrating that no single indicator reliably times cycle peaks.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Simon Dixon's analysis of institutional Bitcoin accumulation
Rob: Well, everybody, we are back again with Sunday — me and Jerry Hall. Today we're talking about how 2022 seems like we're just in a repeat process, but there are some little intricacies going on. So I brought Jerry to talk about it. Jerry, how you doing?
Jerry Hall: I'm good, man. Happy to be here. Costa Rica, beautiful day. Hope you're all having an incredible day. Looking forward to the show.
Rob: Let's get into it. The first part we're going to talk about is friend of the show Simon Dixon. He was on the Bitcoin Sessions podcast — it's a great podcast, you have to check it out, I've linked it in the description. You can watch the whole thing, but I'm just going to play the first 45 seconds to a minute, which kind of gives you the overview about what's going on. I sent this to Jerry because I think this is where we're actually at. So just take a listen — about 45 seconds, this is just the intro.
Simon Dixon: "You will own nothing and be happy. They're trying to do it with Bitcoin. Strategy is a vehicle for centralizing as much Bitcoin as possible. He's created the most amazing arbitrage vehicle for fiat. We then got the next phase, which is the digital credit. You wrap as many of the ecosystem as you can, reverse merger into a Bitcoin treasury company. And now BlackRock launches the ETF Bitcoin income. And so now they can create the covered calls, the derivative complex, receive income. They've got the short-term price. If they want to margin call you, engineer a short-term crash, then you just do these little tricks. We saw it — Michael Saylor says 'I'm selling 32 Bitcoin,' the price crashes, buys back 1,500 Bitcoin. But their goal is to get your Bitcoin in custody. You resist by holding it in self-custody and not leveraging it up. So call me a conspiracy theorist if you like, but this is the game. Nothing stops this train. You just need to recognize it and understand how to have a strategy around it. And the strategy is: nothing stops this train, you just have to have a strategy around it. And of course, separating your Bitcoin from the people that are actually here — this is what I think is underway."
Rob: So Jerry, what are your thoughts on this? And again, that podcast is linked in the description — you have to check out the whole thing because Simon goes pretty deep. But what are your thoughts about manipulation, all these different financial instruments that we're exposed to now? Do you like how TradFi got into Bitcoin, or do you think this is just a big waste?
Jerry: I'll tell you, I was in the camp in 2018 — as I was acquiring the majority of my assets that I even still hold today — thinking that once banks, once industry, once Wall Street comes to this party, I'm going to be in such great shape. It's going to be so good for Jerry. And the truth has been that we are seeing all the fun and games that happened in traditional commodity markets — the manipulation of the gold price, the silver price, corn, all of these commodity manipulation tactics — brought to our industry, to the digital asset industry. So I'm now of the thinking that the best strategy is hold and don't sell no matter what. And although I, Jerry, may have missed the boat and may never get back to a thousand-X return on my investment, maybe there's a real possibility that that'll be there for my children. And so what that means is that the only variable in the equation that needs to be added for prosperity from owning Bitcoin is: hold for a long period of time.
Rob: Yeah. And I think what you just said about hanging on for the kids, or for grandkids if you've got those — like myself — you take a look and you say, well, maybe this is it. Because the days of the thousand-Xs are obviously gone for Bitcoin. Now, there may be an altcoin out there that people are saying, "But Rob, did you check out Timbuktu coin, whatever?" No, I haven't. But maybe there's a thousand-X somewhere. But Jerry just said a very unselfish thing, which is: this could be why I need to hold on for my kids and my grandkids. And I've got to respect that. That is what it's all about, really.
So talking about that, and what Simon talked about — I personally am not a big fan of all these financial instruments. It sounded so great in the beginning, like you said. But then you get into the weeds of it and TradFi comes in and they start to manipulate things. And even though we got a spot Bitcoin ETF — which is not paper Bitcoin, it is legitimate, they have to buy it, they have to custody it — now we're getting all these different things: Strategy, Stretch, futures contracts, options. You go into it and you're like, what are we doing here? It's like going to a Dolly Parton music festival and she doesn't play Jolene. You're like, what are we even doing here?
Bitcoin buy-zone indicators and the Ben's Summary metric
These types of things make me wonder. But then you have to take a look at what's going on right now. Right now today we actually slipped down around 58 — almost 57K, I think. Yeah, we were at 58,188 just this morning, and now here we are at a whopping 59K.
We've talked ad nauseam about the moving averages and where we're actually at. I know there are some people in the audience who are just saying, "Rob, I'm just waiting. I'm just waiting until we hit rock bottom and then I'm going to deploy and go for it." You can do that — that's not what I'm doing. I think me and Jerry are on the same wavelength on this one.
But if we just look at these moving averages again — the 200-week, we're already below it. And the 250, we're right in between the two. Some people say, "I just want to wait for this specific moving average or that specific moving average." And sometimes those just don't come.
So what I'm looking at today — we already talked moving averages — I want to bring in one more indicator, which is Ben's Summary. It takes the price metrics, on-chain metrics, and social metrics and puts them all together. We're at a level right now which we are rarely at: 0.17. As we go into the big bull runs and things like that, it's very rare to get below 0.2. Take a look at this.
Here's the Summary. I want to go color-coded because I'm a visual person. What I want you to take a look at is the bottoms. This Summary, which looks at a lot of indicators and puts them all together — look at this. The 0.00 to 0.1 range rarely, rarely happens. Can everybody see that?
Jerry: Are they indicated by the blue dots? I see three of them — or four?
Rob: There's one, two, and three. And that's it. That's all it's ever happened. So when people say, "I just got to wait for the absolute bottom" — well, guess what? This bottom, with all those indicators together, it didn't fire in 2022. It just didn't.
So I want to show you 0.1 to 0.2, which is where we're at right now — we're at 0.178 or something like that. That's happened a little bit more. It happened in 2011, happened in 2015, happened in 2019–20. And look at this — it happened just at the bottom, or almost the bottom, in 2022. And as you can see over here, it's actually hit as we go below 60K, 66, 65, 63. I think these are the times to actually pick it up.
But just going back to look at these 0.1 to 0.2 readings — let's go back in time. We've got 2022, 2020, 2019, 2015. I wasn't around in 2015. Jerry, were you around?
Jerry: No. Very end of 2017 is when I got interested.
Rob: Yeah, me too. So going back in time — here were the prices when it went below 0.2. The 15th of April 2020, the price was $6,600. Now it went lower than that. But would anybody be ticked off if they bought Bitcoin at $6,600? Or Ethereum at $153? Or XRP — first of all, how much is XRP today?
Jerry: Dollar plus easily.
Rob: Jerry, you said that with such hatred.
Jerry: Dollar plus or something.
Rob: Yeah. Bitcoin Cash — yeah, whatever. Litecoin's pretty awful. But for XRP today, you wouldn't be so bad. $6,600 back when it was below 0.2 — not too bad. How about the next one? 5th of December 2019. Now again, it was a higher price at $7,400, but would you be okay with buying at $7,400? I think most of us would. How about 12th of July 2022? There was another time — it was at $19,000. I think we'd be okay. 27th of November 2022, $16,000 — I think we'd be all right. And then the last one, 26th of February 2026, which was when it was actually lower at $67,000. Now this one kind of stings because it went below 0.2, but I think again in the long run, as we just took a look at those price actions and Jerry talking about holding, not too many of us will be too upset as time goes on. But the trick is actually staying around.
Jerry, thoughts on this?
Jerry: You're right. There's that old saying: time in the market will always beat trying to time the market. Time in the market is more important than timing the market. Unfortunately, I'd like to get a lot easier to do. The only discipline it requires is — once you do it, leave it alone. Walk away. Go to the beach. Have some fun.
Rob: And see, those types of things — it's right to just walk away. The thing is, I think this is the easier part for us. For everybody in the chat, I know you've been here at least once — well, this might be your first time, which is rare, but I bet you've been here two, three, maybe even four bear markets. And I know that you know what to do in this time frame. It's not like there's an epiphany right now for most people in the audience. Our problem isn't buying dips. And I'll say this again — our problem is selling, is taking profits, is taking a look at those indicators for tops.
The limits of indicators for timing market tops
And I will just say: as good as Ben's information is, it's not flawless. And Ben would agree with me on this one.
So one of the principles I built this around was summaries and how high we were and the risk levels. When we take a look at risk levels — the problem was that these risk levels are what the smart investor would look at when trying to take profits. 20th of November 2021, almost 0.7 — probably a good time. 2017, almost 0.8 — looks pretty good. What were the levels at 0.4? If you'd looked at that and told me this is the time to take profits, I'd say you're out of your mind. This is not what we're looking at. And this is the Summary for all the indicators.
But what I want to break down is the Bitcoin risk levels. Because when we take a look at this, we would think to ourselves, I can kind of top this out, this makes sense. And it makes a lot of sense looking historically — in February, not so great, but in April, yeah, 0.7, almost 0.8. Going back to 2017, look at that — this would have been easy enough. Going back to 2015 or 2013, the tops. But then looking forward — what was it on October 6, 2025? Barely 0.53. If you had told me that's the top, no way. I would have bet more over here when the Bitcoin price was $71,000.
So again, indicators are great, but we can't rely on them solely. We have to get all the information we possibly can, then aggregate it and have a plan moving forward. I've got to tell you, this time going around, I'm going to pay a lot more attention to four-year cycles and start to ladder out, especially in 2028.
Jerry, thoughts on this ramble I just had?
Jerry: I love the fact that we have these things as topics. Everybody ultimately at the end of the day is going to have to make a decision based on their own circumstances, their own cost basis, their own price targeting, their view of the overall world, how it fits into their Bitcoin trade. But just understanding that there are times when you have a much better percentage chance of accumulation with appreciation involved — I think we shouldn't underscore that. There are these elements, and if we understand the market macro behind it, it's easier to see how these things make sense.
Rob: Yeah.
Jerry: Because there are forces outside of our digital asset space that are affecting the digital asset space.
Rob: Yeah. And those are the big whales, the big people, the TradFi institutions.
Jerry: The liquidity, where we are in the business cycle, how much it costs to borrow money — a lot of macro factors.
Rob: See, this is where me and Jerry differ on different things. I know Jerry believes heavily in the business cycles. I'm more big on the four-year cycles. But whatever it is — try, guys, next time, to take a little bit of profits and get them off the table.
And then I'll remind you: because the risk levels are now below 0.3 — squarely at 0.28 — this is just the Bitcoin risk levels, not taking a look at historical risk levels for everything. The Summary risk levels include price metrics — Bitcoin risk, total crypto market cap, logarithmic regression, Corridor, Fear and Greed — on-chain metrics, MVRV Z-score, transaction fees, terminal price, and social metrics: Google, app, YouTube views, X followers. It just aggregates everything into one big metric. And right now we're at the lowest point that we usually go to. So maybe the bottom is in. It's anybody's guess.
I'm keeping money right now. But I will tell you this: just the Bitcoin risk level below 0.3 — dynamically DCAing, depending on how you want to do this. For me, I'm buying as it goes down and I'm either doubling, tripling, quadrupling, or — I don't know what the phrase is when you 8x — that's what I'm doing right now. So if Monday comes about, Cash App will go and I'll be buying Bitcoin.
Jerry, are you still buying or are you just waiting?
Jerry's shift to a 70/30 Tesla/Bitcoin allocation
Jerry: So it used to be I was only DCAing Bitcoin up until about 12 months ago, when it became very clear to me that Tesla was far more than a car company — with the onset of robotics, and the fact that I believe there will be a merger between SpaceX and Tesla. I think SpaceX will buy Tesla, and I have many reasons for that. So I started acquiring in my Schwab account — not only my Roth IRA but my children's Roth IRA — I started to acquire Tesla, and I've been ever-increasing that allocation. It went from 50/50 to 60/40 to 70/30. Right now I'm at 70/30: 30% goes to Bitcoin, 70% goes to Tesla stock in the Roth IRA, and it will continue to do so. Even though it pains me with Bitcoin at these prices, I still think the market has underpriced Tesla for what it's going to be five to ten years from now. They just don't get it. They don't understand the magnitude of it. Or maybe I don't understand the magnitude and I made a big mistake. One of those two things is true.
Rob: One of those two is absolutely 100% correct. Hey, and this will bring us to our last topic before we get to the Q&A — talking about Tesla and SpaceX and under the umbrella of XAI. There was a good piece that just came out about 12 hours ago or so, and it talks about how Anthropic — which is the creator of Claude, which I've been talking about quite a bit — during a closed-door demonstration, Anthropic showed members that Mythos — if you're not aware, Mythos is one of the LLMs, large language models, and it came out from Anthropic. It was the most advanced that they actually had. They didn't want to give Mythos to the public, so they gave them Fable. And Fable was so powerful that it actually broke in — we talked about this last week, me and Jerry — where it broke in and actually got into classified documents of the US government. Didn't take weeks or days. It took hours.
Anthropic's Mythos LLM and AI security threats
So behind closed doors, Anthropic said, "Hey, we told the model to find a vulnerability in a bank and empty accounts." And it did it, because the Mythos LLM could wipe out private bank accounts. I found this fascinating because we are all so worried about quantum computing — which, let's be honest, it's not here yet. But you know what is here? Mythos and Fable. And it's coming out hot and heavy, and that just happened for real. I think we're targeting the wrong thing.
And then people say, "Ah, but the government's going to control it." Now, check this out — China just went through and created their own Fable/Mythos equivalent, released it for everybody to use, at a third of the cost, and it's available everywhere. I don't know how that's going to work, but this is something big.
Jerry, what are your thoughts on this one?
Jerry: This is an interesting industry where jurisdictional law and regulations aren't global — they're very jurisdictionally and regionally related. The US has no recourse to what happens in China. And so if they decided to take a pseudo-copy of Fable or Mythos, wrap it in some other name, give it some other user interface, and make it available, there is nothing we can do about it. It's going to be interesting over the next couple of years as these technologies define what they're actually useful for and how people can monetize them. Who will get monetized? Will it be Anthropic, or will it be that company out of Shenzhen, China? I don't know. But somebody's going to monetize and use these things — hopefully for good and not bad. Although we both know there will be plenty of bad actors doing all kinds of harmful things. And we are unfortunately going to have to learn how to stay out of the path of the bad actors. That's not going to go away. Matter of fact, that's only going to increase.
Rob: Yeah. And imagine this — we hear about scams, pig butchering, and everything else that people are getting screwed out of their money. How fast is that going to exacerbate with all these new techniques? It's going to be pretty brutal for a while.
And I know some people are saying, "Well, it doesn't matter because of two-factor authentication for your bank account — you've only got two or three login attempts and then they shut it down." I don't think it's at that individual level. I think it's at the actual bank level. And I asked the question to Grok: is this true? And it said, "Yes — Andrew Garbarino, chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, publicly described a closed-door Anthropic demonstration." He noted the model could find and fix these vulnerabilities, but it was instructed to identify vulnerabilities in a banking system and empty accounts. So it wasn't like it was going individual one by one — "Hey, Jerry's got a bunch of money in this USAA account, let me just drain that." It's: "No, no, no — we're going at the very tippity top and we're just going to drain the whole thing." So it's a scary time.
Q&A: Market timing, DCA strategy, and altcoin rotation
Rob: Nate says, "I'm waiting for an even more bottom bottom in October/November." What do you think, Jerry?
Jerry: I think if he's got good logical reasons for doing that, wonderful. He very well could be right. None of us have a crystal ball.
Rob: Yeah. But think about this with what Nate's saying — "Okay, I'm going to wait till October." Because we took a look at the new direction that the Federal Reserve is going in. Have you taken a look at the CME groups? Unfortunately, if they start raising rates — what do you think that's going to do to the price of the S&P 500, traditional finance, NASDAQ, Russell 2000? They're going to start to tank. And if they start to tank, can you imagine what's going to happen with Bitcoin? And then there's what we just talked about with AI and the different problems with that. And then I don't know what's going on with Strategy and Stretch, but there is more to the downside right now than I can think of. So maybe Nate's plan works out for him.
Nate also says, "Best thing to predict is that Bitcoin is going to follow its previous established patterns. If it breaks those patterns, I will adapt, and until then, yeah, I could see that."
And then Mike says, "Another one fitting the fading of the four-year cycle. We haven't bought the bottom yet. Still some delusional bulls left." Who's the biggest bull that you've seen on the socials lately?
Jerry: It's got to be Saylor.
Rob: Saylor, yeah. I mean, I don't think there's a bigger one.
Jerry: I'll tell you — because I firmly believe that I can't predict the future very well, that's why I so closely hold on to the dollar-cost averaging concept. If you don't know what's going to happen in the future, you can only guess at directionality. Then acquiring a smaller amount more consistently over time will give you the best average. I've never been good at timing the market. I was the knucklehead who invested $23,000, got it up to a million, and didn't take profits because I was so convinced the market was just going to go higher and higher. So through the pain of my own — we'll call it ignorance — I've adopted a DCA strategy. And you know what? It's been fine. I steadily increase my position over time. I am no longer losing ground in the Bitcoin space — I'm gaining it. I get more Bitcoin every so often, and every month I get more Tesla. And that's working. So I'm good with it. But good luck, Nate.
Rob: Good luck, Nate and everybody. And like Jerry said — I didn't do a fantastic job of taking more off the table. I took enough, rolled it into real estate, worked out pretty well. But again, I wish I would have done a lot better.
And I love how Jerry will tell these stories. BQU and data says: "I sold everything on 14th of December 2024" — which, for altcoins, all right, now we're talking — "few days later, bought two s-coins and lost 90% until the Trump inauguration. Fun times." Yeah, that is a tale as old as time. We invest into something, it does real well, we are of course geniuses, you can't tell us nothing. And before you know it, we're like, where did all my money go? And yeah, that's a cycle that will continue to plague us. But we all know now what we're going to do — we're going to take those profits as we see them.
Why does Rob talk about profits? There aren't any profits. I talk about it now to remind everybody, because you're going to want to have this in your head as you're trading and thinking about it, instead of waiting until everything is going 10x, 20x, or even 2x. You want to have this mentality, because if not, you're going to burn yourself again.
A1 says, "I always think the bull market will last longer than it does." Hey Jerry, remember the theory of rotations in the alts?
Jerry: Oh, sure. Bitcoin would appreciate, profits would be taken from the Bitcoin space and go into the Cardanos, the Ethereums, the Solanas, the 500th coin on the list. Yeah.
Rob: And that was supposed to happen this time.
Jerry: I think there's too much industry involvement in this space now. I think that was true when it was predominantly a retail-driven ecosystem. There's too much institutional money in here now, and you just won't see that. There may be a rotation from a very large Bitcoin gain into a Tesla or an AI company — Anthropic, OpenAI, something like that. But that's because industry experts are controlling that flow of funds, not a group of influencers seeking thousand-X returns on the next potential altcoin.
Rob: That's very true. Hey, somebody's got a good question for you. When is the waterfall coming, Jerry? 2029 or when?
Jerry: Oh, thank you, my friend. I already bought the property. The property is owned outright.
Rob: Class Day Jerry — that's a whole other subject. Now, is there a chance that what I have in my portfolio could get all that for me with the market 10x-ing from where we are right now? Absolutely. So a 10x — all we need is a 10x in the market and Jerry's waterfall cascade away will actually — yeah, yeah, yeah.
Cardano, Leos testnet, and missed commercial opportunities
Rob: Let's see — Jerry, thoughts on Cardano and the Leos testnet?
Jerry: Again, a lot of these blockchain-related AI projects are having a hard time finding commercial market fit. They're creating really neat and interesting things, but if there's no commercial demand for it, it's just an experiment. And that's the phase we're in with ASI, TAO, Render — a lot of these things. Until they create real commercial traction, it's going to be hit and miss, up and down, speculation wave after liquidity wave after contraction.
Interesting again — I think the technology is super sound. My only non-hypy comments around Cardano are: for a company that had the treasury that they had, to not be marketing their technology in the form of what it would be really good for — voting, digital ID, rock-solid infrastructure for municipalities and corporate banking — all of those things, they seem to have missed the boat on that. And I don't know why. I would have spent my money going into those industries and creating products and services for those industries, and not worrying about DeFi and not worrying about how fast I could get a video game to run graphics like Hydra and things of that nature. I would have done other things to get commercial adoption.
Rob: Well, maybe — and let's be honest — all the different fraud and abuse that's being uncovered now, maybe the government didn't want to have that transparency. Maybe they didn't want that discovery. Maybe they said, "You know what? If we do that, that's going to look real bad on us, because then we've got citizen journalists looking at all of the transactions on a ledger. This is not going to look good." So that's my thought — they weren't going to do it anyhow.
Pig butchering scams and protecting family from fraud
Rob: This was a good one. Gig Dice says, "No such thing as pig butchering. It's make-a-wish for delusional adults. They pay for the service." And then A1 says, "The fact that people are stupid enough to get pig butchered."
Here's the thing about pig butchering. My sister-in-law called me last week. "Hey Rob, I've got a lady I work with — elderly, advanced age — and she was investing in some type of Bitcoin proxy, something like that. And somehow this exchange lost her keys, and now they're asking her — because they said, 'Hey, you have over a million dollars worth of Bitcoin' — and they're out of China — 'if you just send us $90,000 or whatever it was, then we'll send it back to you.'" And I'm like, was she serious or was she laughing when she said it? No, no, she's dead serious. And she's going to go get her money today. And I was like, let me talk to her right now.
And I said, "Look, there's this thing called pig butchering. You just fell for it. How much did you put in?" And she had already put in like $10,000. I said, "That money's gone. Be thankful it wasn't more. How much were you going to send?" $90,000. I said, "You're welcome. You just saved yourself $90,000. Just walk away. You lost $10,000 — be thankful it wasn't anymore." And these things happen every single day. And like we talked about, AI is going to make it worse.
Jerry, what did you do with your son to teach him about this — how to avoid all these traps?
Jerry: So basically I bought him a Trezor hardware wallet and helped him set up his Schwab Roth IRA. And so you can buy Bitcoin exposure with any of the MicroStrategy elements, any of the spot ETFs — all available. So if you want Bitcoin-related elements, or if you want to actually own the asset, own the asset, put it on your hardware wallet, and leave it alone. And basically the best thing I ever did with my son in investing is taught him how to use a compounding interest calculator.
Rob: Oh, very nice.
Jerry: That was probably the biggest thing. Because although it's not a big deal in the beginning, when you're young and you can forecast out 30 years and you can see the math, it's very compelling. But it requires you to be consistent and do nothing. Don't change.
Rob: Yeah, that's pretty good. I remember seeing that in school and they would show us the power of compounding interest. I thought it was so fascinating, but it was like one lesson and that was it. And then they said, "Okay, now we're going to teach you how to write a check, and now it's time for shop and then recess." That's it.
Jerry: You had a high school that had home economics as a class. Yeah, I took home ec too. It was great.
Rob: Yeah. I don't know what the hell happened. Anyhow — here's another question for Jerry. Jerry, any idea of what's going on with TAO?
Jerry: Again, a lot of these blockchain-related AI projects are having a hard time finding commercial market fit somewhere. They're creating really neat and interesting things, but if there's no commercial demand for it, it's just an experiment. And that's the phase we're in with ASI, TAO, Render — a lot of these things. Until they create real commercial traction, it's going to be hit and miss, up and down, speculation wave after liquidity wave after contraction.
Rob: That's my middle name — Speculation. Nothing wrong with that.
Compounding interest and teaching kids about investing
Rob: Hey, you know what? I want to show everybody this — for the parents out there, grandparents, whatever. I was just perusing the internet as Jerry was talking. If you just type in "compound interest calculator," you can show your kids this today. And I've got to tell you, they're probably going to learn way more than they're going to learn in school. Unless you're outside of the United States — in the United States, they don't teach us squat about investing. That's for sure.
Check this out, Jerry. Give me an initial investment — something you'd suggest.
Jerry: $300.
Rob: $300. Very nice.
Jerry: I did this at 12 years old.
Rob: You're a baller. 12-year-old baller. Contribution — $10?
Jerry: $10.
Rob: How many years?
Jerry: Length of term — 30 years.
Rob: All right. What kind of interest are we looking at?
Jerry: 3.9.
Rob: Okay. Annually, compound frequency. Calculate. Okay — so you have $7,500 in 30 years.
Jerry: For a 12-year-old kid to be looking at these kind of numbers was staggering to me. I made $300 my first summer doing yard work, and my mother took me to Schwab and we created an account to buy Pacific Gas and Electric stock with dividend reinvestment, and me coming in and buying one share every month. I could buy a share for $10 back then.
Rob: So that's where all those numbers came from. And you've got to remind the kids that it's not so much in the beginning — it's as things start to take off and you get free money. Kid, congratulations. That's it.
X Money's 6% APY launch and Elon Musk's financial ecosystem
Rob: X Money just got rolled out a couple of days ago. I don't know if you heard about this, but they rolled it out to individuals — not to everybody. And the yield is 6%. I don't know how they do that — that's got to be like a short-term thing. I can't imagine that being forever. And then also FDIC insurance — it's not $250,000, it's like $10 million. Have you ever heard of WeChat, Jerry, from China?
Jerry: Of course.
Rob: Of course. I'll look into this. But one of the things that would make sense for them to be able to offer that yield — you've got to remember, X is X. It's Elon. Are these corporate bonds that are producing that yield? They're getting investment dollars, they're using that money, they're providing a yield. Where does the yield come from? Well, it could easily come from the issuance of credit from one of the companies — whether it be SpaceX, Tesla, the Boring Company, Neuralink, Twitter, or X itself. So I've got to check this out.
This was from the X-verse: X Money went live today. 6% APY on your cash. I've got to say, that's pretty safe. I mean, 6% — I know people say, "Well, I get 11.5% on Stretch."
Jerry: Yeah. But there's an arbitrage involved in Stretch that may not be the same here. The volatility of a SpaceX/Tesla is far lower than the volatility of MicroStrategy.
Rob: Yeah. Underlying asset. And look at this — 3% cash back on everything. Money insured up to $10 million. I'm going to get this once it rolls out.
Jerry: Great idea.
Rob: Well, sounds good to me. I'm in Puerto Rico, so they'll probably say, "No, sorry — I know you're a Commonwealth, but we're going to give it to you anyway." It's all taxable. I'm okay with that. If you're paying more taxes, you're making more money.
Jerry: That is 100% true.
Rob: And Gig Dice asks, "Does a dude need to pay for a verified check to get selected for that fat juicy money?" I don't know how this works — they're just kind of rolling it out randomly to different people. I'm sure there's an algorithm for that. But I didn't get offered it, also because I stepped down from X. I don't really post over there anymore. The only time I post is when we do these live streams and I just click a button and it streams there. I don't post on X anymore because it's a time waster.
I think that's it. Okay. Well, guys, we went 42 minutes. Jerry's got stuff to do — he's trying to make his next 100x. So that's it for today.