Alessio Rastani and trader Manuel Bllye debate whether you should ever sell Bitcoin
Alessio Rastani interviews trader Manuel Bllye on whether selling Bitcoin is ever the right move.
Summary
Alessio Rastani and trader Manuel Bllye discuss whether it is ever correct to sell Bitcoin, prompted by Michael Saylor's public position that one should never sell it. Manuel explains that he holds a small, permanent "core position" in both Bitcoin and gold as a form of portfolio insurance — a position he never trades — while maintaining a separate, actively traded position in Bitcoin that he will buy and sell according to trend signals. He draws a sharp distinction between his approach to stocks, where he has no emotional attachment and trades purely on trend direction, and his approach to Bitcoin and gold, where a core holding is retained regardless of market conditions. Manuel is candid that he is more convinced by gold than Bitcoin as an insurance asset, acknowledging that Bitcoin carries risks such as a potential coordinated state attack, but argues that since he cannot rule out Bitcoin reaching very high valuations, holding some exposure is rational even for an agnostic.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Introduction: Should you ever sell Bitcoin?
Alessio Rastani: All right guys, hello and welcome. In this particular video, I want to ask my good friend and trader Manuel Bllye an important question. And the question is: should you ever sell Bitcoin? The reason I'm asking is that Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy tweeted — and I've put it up so people can see it — he said, "Never sell Bitcoin." But is he right? Is it actually a correct investing strategy? Is it actually a sound strategy to never sell something you hold? In this case, it could be Bitcoin. Is he right or is he wrong? We'll discuss it with my friend and trader Manuel Bllye.
Okay, thanks very much, Manuel. Really appreciate it. So, a bit of a controversial question. I think there are going to be people on both sides. Especially if people watching this video are Bitcoin lovers — Bitcoin bros, as they call them — they'll be offended at the very suggestion.
Manuel Bllye: How dare you, sir? I'm offended.
Alessio Rastani: They would say, why even ask this question? It's a horrible question. Never sell Bitcoin. Michael Saylor says it. Michael Saylor says never sell Bitcoin. Of course, we know that Michael Saylor, with respect, has a vested interest in people not selling it — for good reason. I wonder what you think as an investor, as a trader. Am I correct that you hold Bitcoin? You have an interest in Bitcoin?
Manuel's core position philosophy: Bitcoin and gold as insurance
Manuel Bllye: You know, the answer depends on how much Bitcoin you have as a percentage of your total net worth. If you have, I don't know, 2% of your total net worth in Bitcoin, I am comfortable saying: don't sell. Let's see what happens.
Alessio Rastani: So you do hold Bitcoin. You're a passionate holder?
Manuel Bllye: I have — do you want to know what I do? I have a core position, as with gold. So I treat Bitcoin like gold. What my thinking is doing: I have a core position that is never bought or sold. I bought it and it's there, sitting, because for me it's an insurance. Gold and Bitcoin both are long-term insurance that pay me money. Normally you pay money to have insurance. But now, no — when I have gold or Bitcoin, because of price appreciation, I'm paid to have my portfolio insurance. So it's great: an insurance that pays you money.
So I always have a core position in gold and Bitcoin. I am agnostic. I really don't care. I'm not a Bitcoin maximalist. I like Bitcoin. I like gold. I like both. They don't need to compete against each other. Both are a source of value. So I have both. I have a core position in both, and that position is never traded, because you can never know what's going to happen in the future — whether it's going to be a reset, something that may escape technical analysis. But on the other hand, I have a position that is traded. So I have a core position, and then in addition to that, like any other asset, they are bought and sold according to my trends, my theory, whatever.
Trading position versus core position
Alessio Rastani: So can I ask you — are you saying that even if your charts and your methodologies, using Dow Theory for example, even if they show risk in Bitcoin, even if they issue sell signals or bearish signals, that you would still not sell Bitcoin? You would hold the core position?
Manuel Bllye: The core position, no. The trading position, yes.
Alessio Rastani: I see. So you have a core position and you have a trading position that you trade. So when you trade, does that mean in a downward market — like the one we had in 2022 and the one we had in 2018 — in downward trending markets, does that mean you would trade them to the short side? You would be shorting rallies. Is that correct?
Manuel Bllye: Yeah, but I don't short — I only short occasionally. Stock indexes is the only thing I short.
Alessio Rastani: Then how do you hedge when Bitcoin goes into downtrends or bear markets?
Manuel Bllye: Well, the core position is very small in proportion to my total wealth. So I can sleep tight. The same as with gold when gold drops. I know it's an insurance. It's there. Maybe when — if both Bitcoin and gold, or whatever — will suddenly pop up by 100% because there is a revaluation, whatever. The world is uncertain. Look at Europe now, United States tariffs. So you never know. One day maybe we wake up and suddenly we see Bitcoin at half a million and gold at $20,000. We don't know. There can be a reset, something that is going to happen on a weekend. I really don't know. So for me, Bitcoin and gold are just an insurance. There is this core position that is not traded.
The stock market correlation objection
Alessio Rastani: But of course, I'm a trader. Some people might say: Manuel, how can you say Bitcoin is an insurance against a stock market crash? Because both stock markets and Bitcoin usually move in tandem.
Manuel Bllye: They do — until they don't. Correlations are correlations until they break. What if there is severe turmoil, something really big, geopolitical stress, something that crashes the stock market? I'm not saying that. I have a bullish bias, an optimistic bias. But what if? And that is when you need insurance. Maybe you need insurance once in your life, or never. But you need this insurance.
For instance, another example to make it clear: with stocks, I don't have a core position. So with stocks, I am 100% trader. Buy, sell, buy, sell. No emotional attachment. I don't have a core position in stocks. No "buy and hold forever" core position. Stocks is always buy, sell, buy, sell. I don't care. For me, the trend is up, I buy. The trend is down, I sell. So it's really a great privilege for Bitcoin and gold that they keep a core position — from a big trend follower, the big agnostic in the markets. I believe in nothing in the markets. I don't believe in narratives. I believe in nothing. So it's going up, I buy. It's going down, I sell. I don't care about explanations.
But it's different when it comes to Bitcoin and gold.
Alessio Rastani: Exactly. So this is a big privilege that Manuel is extending to gold and Bitcoin.
Why Bitcoin specifically? Alessio pushes back
Alessio Rastani: Yeah. I can understand the situation with gold as a precious metal. I get that. But I don't understand why you'd think Bitcoin is in the same situation as gold. I know some people don't agree with me on this, but I don't see Bitcoin as being like digital gold, or even like gold at all. I just don't see it. Again, as I said before, when stock markets crash and when recessions occur, usually Bitcoin goes down — as we've seen in the past. So why do you see Bitcoin as a store of value?
Manuel Bllye: I don't believe even my own narrative. So you're talking to an agnostic. But Bitcoin is hard money. This for me is clear. You cannot print it, and it's even harder than gold. That said, because I am an agnostic in markets, I know that Bitcoin maybe one day could — I don't know. They say it's really unbreakable. But there can be an organised state attack. They can get 51% control. They say no, this is almost impossible. I don't know. I'm not so sure.
But since I don't believe even my own narratives — what if the people that are fully convinced about Bitcoin are right? Then I think it makes sense to have a core position, which is, to tell you the truth, smaller than my gold core position. So you can see the ranking of core beliefs. I agree with you, Alessio. I am more of a gold person. I'm not a gold bug — 90% is in stocks — but as an insurance, I believe more in gold than in Bitcoin. Nevertheless, I believe in many of the aspects of Bitcoin. I'm not so convinced as some people I know, and I'm going to get scolded for that — they say no, no, it's better than gold, let's sell all the gold. I'm not so convinced, notably because Bitcoin is susceptible to an attack. They say no, until now, okay. So I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong.
So since I can be wrong or right, and I don't believe in narratives — why not hold something that, in case it really goes to $2 million and there is geopolitical stress and it really is not attacked, I was wrong, and then it's really very resilient and even better than gold? Then I want to have some exposure. But not because I am opinionated. I'm really very agnostic. Even with gold — if you talk to a gold bug, they will tell you don't own stocks, then you're stupid. You miss a huge bull market in stocks, really. So I've always had more or less between five and ten percent in gold. But of course I was trading the stock market because it was a bull market. But for sure, if you talk to a gold bug, they will say no, for this, this, and that, the stock market is going to drop.
Come on. So make money with the stock market. Have some kind of insurance — as I have with physical gold, not an ETF, with physical gold safely stored. And this is your insurance, and it pays you money. Because my gold holding is up more than most European stock indexes. It has paralleled the US stock market, the S&P, but much more than all European stocks. So: insurance that performs almost as well as the stock market with dividends reinvested.