Ivan analyzes why AI-driven stocks keep rising despite bearish macro conditions, and argues for trend-following over news-based trading
Ivan on Tech presents his case for ignoring financial news and following price trends instead.
Summary
Ivan, the host of Ivan on Tech, addresses the apparent contradiction of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hitting all-time highs while inflation is at its highest since May 2023, rate cuts look increasingly unlikely, and oil prices remain elevated. He argues that the market is being carried almost entirely by a handful of AI-related companies — including Intel, SanDisk, AMD, and Micron — whose gains are so large they outweigh broad market weakness. The central argument of the video is that trying to trade based on news and fundamentals is a losing strategy, illustrated by his recounting of President George W. Bush declaring the economy's fundamentals strong in 2008 — shortly before the financial system nearly collapsed. Ivan's proposed alternative is a mechanical trend-following system using what he calls the "money line" and "money scanner" tools, which signal bull or bear trends on weekly and daily charts, removing the need to interpret news at all. Ivan also argues that trend-following has significant psychological benefits: it reduces stress, eliminates the need to consume financial media, and frees up time for family and business. He references his book — titled Big Profits, and a second book subtitled The Game Is Rigged — Here's How to Win Anyway — as elaborations of these ideas.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
The Contradiction: All-Time Highs Amid Bearish Macro Conditions
Ivan: Yes, guys, it's time to address the elephant in the room — the fact that the S&P is at an all-time high, NASDAQ is at an all-time high, and actually wants to go even higher. At the same time, inflation is soaring. We now have the highest inflation since May 2023. And just imagine — a few months ago, people were saying that the Fed was going to cut rates because inflation was managed, under control. But now we're back basically to those high inflation years of 2022 and 2023.
You also have the Fed unlikely to cut rates. In fact, they may hike rates this year. On Polymarket, the likelihood of a rate hike is going up in 2026. The likelihood of a rate cut is very low — very, very low. The highest likelihood is basically zero rate cuts. And honestly, it does make sense, because oil is still very, very high. Oil puts inflationary pressure on everything. Despite the apparent peace or ceasefire in the Middle East, the oil market is not buying it. They're not buying the fact that everything is back to normal. Nothing is back to normal. And of course, because of all the inflationary pressure — the tariff inflationary pressure and so many other things — the question becomes: how can the stock market pump while everything is screaming bearish?
Many people are calling for a stock market collapse. Let's discuss, and let's also analyze what I'm doing. I will share with you all the strategies. I will reveal a secret at the end which will ensure that you can profit in any market — whether it's up, down, or sideways — and also how to think about these scenarios where everything is going up while it should be going down. You don't know what to do. I'll tell you what to do.
Why the Market Is Still Rising: The AI Exception
Ivan: The first thing you should know is that most companies are actually not doing that great. When you look at how many companies are hitting their 52-week lows, it's many companies — many, many companies. The stock market is basically held up just by a few tech giants. We have the AI FOMO, the AI wave — the chips, the energy, the manufacturing of all of these different components. That is what's currently driving the stock market.
And even tech stocks are not immune. If you look at the IGV, which is a tech ETF, it's not doing that great. Now maybe it's recovering — there's a bit of volume here supporting a potential bottom — but overall it is not hitting all-time highs. Tech itself is not doing that great. It's only a few specific AI-related companies that are doing extremely well, and those are taking NASDAQ and S&P higher and higher and higher.
So to say that all of the negative things we just discussed — the inflationary pressure, the oil prices that are super high, the tariffs, and all of the other things — don't impact the stock market is simply wrong. They do impact the stock market, but they are being outweighed by the bullishness and the capital inflow into AI.
Just look at the Intel chart — straight up, straight up. Why? Because of AI. SanDisk, the same thing — straight up, straight up. Because of AI. AMD, the same thing — straight up, straight up. Because of AI. So all of these different massive charts completely outweigh the bearishness. It is only the chip and AI-related tech that is doing great. And you also have the S&P just blasting higher thanks to the performance of a few select companies.
By the way, my community and I have been riding this trend since the bull flip on the weekly — whether it is SanDisk, whether it is Intel, whether it is Micron MU. I'm saying that not to brag, but just to illustrate that we have a lot of experience. My team and I trade this every single day.
The Case Against Worrying About a Bubble
Ivan: If you're sitting here thinking this is a signal of a major collapse ahead — that this is the time to be worried, that everything is going to collapse because just a few companies are pushing the whole stock market, that it's a bubble, it's like the 2000s, we will crash very, very soon — then listen carefully, because this video is for you. And if you're thinking like this, then likely in the past you've missed a lot of rallies. You've missed a lot of opportunities because you've been too conservative, too worried, and you've been focusing on the worst-case scenario instead of enjoying the ride to the upside and enjoying the green candles.
I understand that the first time you hear about this, it may sound a bit strange, because you are used to being told that you should do all of this complex analysis — look at the Fed, look at what people are saying, inflation, oil, et cetera, et cetera. Meanwhile, SanDisk is just pumping, pumping, and pumping.
What you should look at instead are the candles. For example, since the bull trend right here, we had a fantastic pump of 470%. Now, with the retrace, it is at around 400%. When you have a trend-based indicator, you know when to be bullish and when to be bearish. From one particular candle to the all-time high, it was 1,500%. Then there was a small bear trend that told you to be careful, because you never know if an asset that just went up a lot is also going to retrace 50, 70, or 80%. It can easily happen. So when the trend is bearish, you want to be careful. You want to ease on your positions. But if we're bullish again, you're bullish. Super simple.
Very similar with Intel. You look at the money line, you look at what's happening — massive bull trend, massive bull trend. So if you ignore all of the news, whatever people are saying about inflation, this or that, you're looking at almost 400% returns. And to the all-time high it was 45, 56 percent.
The Scale of Returns in the Current Bull Trend
Ivan: When you look at all of the companies that went bullish in the last year or so on the weekly time frame, you see what kind of returns they produced. You have Western Digital almost 1,000%. You have Kodiak 700%. You have Enlight. You have SanDisk — and that's not even the highest one. There were companies on the US stock market that did even more. And then when you look at all countries — not only the US, but China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore — you have even bigger gains. One tech company created almost 2,000% returns since three months ago when it went bullish on the money line, and that one is in Singapore. Then you have Mitsui and all kinds of different ones.
So as you can see, the superior strategy — and this is a very important part of the secret I want to share with you — is to look at the chart and enjoy the green candles and ride the bull trends. At the same time, you have to respect the bear trends. When the bear trend happens, you have to be risk-off. You have to be very, very fast with taking action and reducing your positions as soon as possible. If you don't, you may get punished. By the same token, when you look at all of the companies that went bearish, many of them got absolutely destroyed — whether it is the US stock market, whether it is the China stock market. If we only look at the United States, you see that many of them, as soon as they go bearish, they go down very, very quickly. So you always have to respect the bearish trend. Always, always, always.
Why the Chart Beats the News
Ivan: So instead of looking at the news, you look at the price, you look at the trend, you enjoy the ride up. Should it go bearish, you're out. Very, very simple.
The biggest objection I get when I say that you should not look at the news is: "But what happens if Trump tweets? If Trump tweets, the markets move. So what do you mean the news doesn't matter?" Well, if Trump tweets something, or some other event happens that really affects the market, you will see it in the chart. If the chart moves, it moves. If you see something bad — let's say some company says they're going bankrupt, some bad news — you will notice it at some point. They will go bearish on the weekly. And if you go to the daily, you will see the bearishness even faster. So whatever news happens, you will see it in the chart. The chart is the scoreboard. The chart is the truth.
Don't be concerned that you will miss something if you don't read the news. You will see it in the chart. And what will surprise you is that in many cases, you see news, you see some kind of event, and nothing happens — nothing happens on the chart. Or the opposite happens. You think it's going to go down, but it goes up. Maybe you have some kind of bad news, but the market feels, "Huh, it's good that the news is out, because now we can look into the future." Maybe the market was anticipating a bit of bad news. The bad news happened, and now it can continue moving to the upside because now it's anticipating good news ahead — now that the bad news has already happened and is no longer a factor in the forward-looking projections that the market makes.
So the conclusion here is that for us it's impossible to know and to assess each and every piece of news. Each and every piece of news could be bullish, bearish, or neutral — no matter what the actual news is — because we don't know how the market has priced in the news, and we don't know how the market is forward-looking based on the news. It's impossible for us to know. So we don't do it. We make our lives way simpler by just following the simple strategy of looking at the chart — whether it is the daily chart or the weekly chart, which is more of a long-term chart with long-term trends — and we take it easy.
The Psychological Benefits of Trend Following
Ivan: When you do this trend-following approach, a few things happen instantly. You become more relaxed, because you don't have to worry about whether you understood the news correctly, whether you interpreted the news correctly, and translated it correctly into market moves — your entry, your take-profit, your stop-loss. Many people say that news is important, but how do you trade based on it? What's your entry? What's your stop-loss? With the chart, you have a very clear trend. Based on this trend, you can have a stop-loss and a take-profit. It's very, very easy to do.
You will just feel a very nice relief. It's like a mountain has fallen off your shoulders. You don't have to worry and ask yourself, "Did I interpret this news correctly?" And you're constantly plugged into the news — just that alone is a drainer. You waste so much time reading the news, reading financial media, instead of spending time with your family, with your kids, focusing on your business. And the thing is, it's a waste of time, but it feels productive — and that's the worst. When something is really a waste of time but feels productive, that's the most dangerous combination. I can tell you 100% that following financial media is a waste of time. It's like reading self-help books but then not doing a business, not doing anything — just sitting and reading self-help books. The same thing is with financial media.
Humility About Whether AI Is a Bubble
Ivan: As you probably understand, I'm very relaxed and humble when it comes to the stock market. I don't know whether it is in a bubble. Maybe it is — who the hell knows? If it isn't a bubble, on the weekly chart we will know it. It's not like we're going to miss the memo. If it is an AI apocalypse, if it is the repetition of the 2000s, it's not like we're going to miss it. It will go bearish. We will exit positions. We will take it easy.
The same thing is with NASDAQ. If we look at NASDAQ, it will also enter the bear trend. We will not sell at the very top — that's never the goal in trend following. You will never buy the absolute bottom. You will never sell the absolute top. But you will capture the majority of the move.
On the daily time frame, you're going to get the signal faster than on the weekly. So is it an apocalypse? Is it not sustainable? Is no one really using AI to do real work? Who the hell knows. I use AI every day. Could it still be a bubble? Because they invest hundreds of billions, trillions in this capex — will they get the return? I don't know. I'm humble enough to say I don't know. There is simply no way for me, without insider information, to know all of it — especially with all of the deals they make with each other, where one company buys all of these servers and GPUs but doesn't pay cash. Instead, they have some kind of agreement that they're going to pay in the future or pay back with services. Who the hell knows? I'm not even trying to understand that, because it is a waste of time. Instead, you can make money as long as it pumps. If it dumps, you're out. It's going to be bearish.
And I really want to reiterate that should we go bearish on the stock market, on NASDAQ, on S&P, on your favorite company, you have to be super concerned — especially if it is the weekly time frame. If we are bearish on the weekly time frame, it can easily go down 30, 40, 50, maybe even 70%. If you look at cryptocurrencies, we always have this kind of fall when we go bear on the weekly, and altcoins can dump easily 80 to 90%. So you have to respect the bear trend.
By being humble — meaning we don't try to be smart, we don't try to predict anything, we're just reacting — when the weekly time frame shows a bull trend or a bear trend, we have to respect it. We don't overanalyze it. We just trust the process. This process has made me a lot of money. In a bull trend, you're bullish. In a bear trend, you're bearish. If you ignore everything else and just follow this, it is the best possible strategy for most people because it's simple. You can apply it in any market. You can make money in an upward market or a downward market. If you want, you can short. As long as you have this simple strategy, the sky is the limit.
George W. Bush in 2008: A Lesson in Fundamental Analysis
Ivan: I've actually written a whole book about this — Big Profits — but let me give you a concrete example of why fundamental analysis fails. In 2008, there was a journalist who asked George Bush whether it was a good time to invest in the stock market. The journalist basically asked whether he was looking forward to 2008 and whether it was the time to invest in the stock market.
President Bush at the time said:
"I'm not going to answer your question. If I were an investor, I would be looking at the basic fundamentals of the economy. Big mistake early on in my presidency — someone asked me about the stock market and I thought I was a financial genius, and it was a mistake."
At least he's humble. But then he continued:
"The fundamentals of the nation are strong."
This is in 2008. He said look at the fundamentals, and he said the fundamentals of the nation are strong. One of the interesting developments has been the role of exports in overall GDP growth — exports up, GDP up, strong economy, everything strong.
So George Bush was saying, "Listen, don't listen to me — I'm not a financial advisor." But then he kept going: look at my metrics, look at this, look at this, look at this. So strong. Everything's so strong. When you open up markets for goods and services and you are treated fairly, you can compete with anyone, anywhere. Exports had been an integral part.
So yeah, he was kind of bullish. The fundamentals of the nation are strong. The economy was growing. Exports were up. And yet within months, the entire financial system nearly collapsed. So this is what you get when you trade fundamentals and you're not humble. You think you know better. You don't know better.
The Final Conclusion: Follow the Trend, Not the Narrative
Ivan: You have to be humble — meaning you conclude that news is news. Who the hell knows whether it's up or down? It's fun to watch. Sometimes I also watch Bloomberg. I turn it on. Trump says something. Some financial talking head says something. But don't take it too seriously, because your P&L will not be helped by that. In fact, it's going to be hurt by that.
In fact, if you tried to lose money in the market, you'd likely make more money. It's crazy. The whole system is rigged against the retail trader's instincts. That's why the book is also called The Game Is Rigged — Here's How to Win Anyway. The big players know your emotions. So if you actually tried to think in reverse — let's say you tried to lose money, you tried to short Nvidia at the top, you tried to short SanDisk at the top, you tried to short all of these different stocks that just keep moving — you likely would have made more money by doing the opposite of your instincts.
Anyway, guys — follow the trend. Have a good day and goodbye.