Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin and altcoin market conditions, identifying select opportunities amid a broadly bearish environment
Ivan on Tech presents a live market analysis session covering Bitcoin, altcoins, gold, and broader portfolio strategy, with viewer Q&A throughout.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a technical market analysis session, arguing that while Bitcoin remains bearish on the weekly timeframe, select altcoins are showing genuine bull signals on the 12-hour and daily timeframes — including Ondo, Zcash, Venice, Virtual, ICP, NEAR, and Ton. He emphasizes that the 12-hour money line is his preferred tool for identifying new bull trends early, and warns that most altcoins are still bleeding with no meaningful recovery. He stresses strict risk management and tight stop-losses given Bitcoin's continued weekly bearishness, cautioning that any altcoin position can collapse rapidly if Bitcoin drops further. The session also covers broader portfolio philosophy — distinguishing between a "profit brain" for trading and a "compound brain" for wealth preservation — and includes extended viewer Q&A on topics ranging from gold in recessions to fitness habits.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Market Structure: Weekly Bearish, Daily Bullish
Ivan on Tech: Guys, welcome to another episode. As you can see right now, Bitcoin is currently at $79,000. Yesterday we did see an interesting development where we went a bit down. If you look two days ago on the 6th, we did go to the 200-day moving average — this 200-day moving average — and for now, at least for now, we got rejected.
Bitcoin is still bullish on the daily and still bearish on the weekly. When you look at the big picture, we're still bearish on the weekly and we're still following this structure of lower highs. That's why overall we are risk-off and we are protecting capital.
Altcoin Opportunities: Selectivity Is Critical
At the same time, when you look at altcoins, there are opportunities in specific certain altcoins. Most altcoins don't go anywhere. You look at Total 3 — nothing is happening here. When you look at the total market cap, it could break out. There is a chance that we break out and have a run for most altcoins — this would be the total altcoin market cap. For now though, it's only a few select coins that pump, like Ton, Zcash, Ondo, Siren, Venice, and so on and so forth. It's so important now to be super selective.
There are opportunities now in the market. For example, Ondo is now going bullish, confirming bullish on the daily. When we look at the 12-hour for Ondo, it has now been bullish for a few candles. Should we have a nice 12-hour trend here on the 12-hourly, it could go quite high — still within the context of Bitcoin being bearish, still within the context of overall being risk-off and careful.
This means, for example, that you have a tight stop-loss. You really manage your position well from a risk management perspective, because should we go down in Bitcoin — should we lose the bullish structure here — let's say we go down below the Bull Market Support Band, which happens a lot. The Bull Market Support Band is a good signal but it's an unreliable signal. It's still good that you know something is happening, something is shifting, and it's good as a first fast signal. But the Bull Market Support Band, both to the upside and to the downside, has massive fakeouts. Here, for example, back in 2025, it did go below the Bull Market Support Band, but this was not yet the bear market — it was just a fakeout. Here we were below it a lot. And the same here — you remember in the last bear we actually went above it, basically signaling bull market, and then we collapsed down.
So all in all, while the money line — which is the primary, most important signal — is bearish, everything that we do with altcoins needs to be super super managed, because the market is still unforgiving should we have another dive in Bitcoin. All of these short coins are going to collapse quite fast. But there are opportunities for longing.
The 12-Hour Money Line: Power and Back-Testing
For example, now you see a breakout after a massive bear trend on the 12-hour timeframe. And even though it's 12-hour, the signals on the 12-hour are very good. Like we discussed yesterday with the money line, the signals are fantastic. Basically, imagine this on the 12-hour — you got a signal to be bearish in September 2025. And since then, to here, it lost almost 80%. This is the power of the money line, because you see the quick changes in the market, quick changes in trend — you avoid losing 80%. And now you have the signal to get back in, in this particular case only. But there are many other ones.
As you will see, we will be discussing the money line a lot in this episode because it is the best way to see which altcoins you should pay attention to and which not. Most people do it wrong. They listen to news, they listen to announcements, they buy a coin based on an announcement, it doesn't pump. Sometimes you have an announcement like with Ton and it does pump. So how do you know? You need to look at whether the money line is bullish or bearish.
Ton, Zcash, and Venice: Analyzing Active Pumpers
Let's check Ton. It has pumped quite a lot already. Let's see how it is on the 12-hour. On the 12-hour, you got a signal here in Ton back on the 13th. It has been a bit sideways before the massive big fat explosion. Currently, because it's not a new trend — and actually it pumped back all the way here to basically where the bear started — in this case there are better opportunities. You want to be in a new bull trend.
Let's see Zcash. Fantastic. Fantastic pump. On the 12-hour, you got a fantastic signal here to get in. It was a bit sideways, then a big fat explosion. Still continuing to the upside. Still a strong bull trend. But personally, I prefer new trends. This one is fantastic for accumulation purposes. It could make sense if you believe in privacy and so on. But still, Bitcoin is bearish. So I would still see it more as trading, less as accumulation. Should Bitcoin go bull on the weekly, then we'll talk more about accumulation for the next bull and so on.
As you can see, it's less than ten coins now that have done something. The majority of the crypto industry is still bleeding. It's still not recovering. So really, while it may seem like there's some kind of rush, there really is not too much rush. That's why you want to have good risk-reward. The best thing is to be in coins which are in new bull trends.
That's also what you see here — if you go to crypto and use the money scanner, you can filter what flipped in the last day, two days, three days, and so on.
Let's look at Venice. On the 12-hour, a fantastic signal was here back in February, and yeah, since then it's been on a rampage. Even here you got a signal back in December, and since then it's been on a fantastic rampage. Looking at the daily — also very very good. Looking at the weekly — fantastic bull trend as well. This one is going into price discovery, literally mooning into price discovery. That's why from a risk perspective, it's best to be in new bull trends. But when something is in price discovery, there is no resistance.
So I would say: number one, the best thing to have is a new bull trend; number two, price discovery; number three, some old trend with a bunch of resistances.
Virtual and ICP: New Bull Trend Setups
Now looking at other ones — let's check Virtual. Virtual, the AI coin. There's a bit of an AI narrative with Virtual and a few others. On the weekly, there is no change — it's still bear, needs to pump a bit more for a bull flip. On the daily, it is now confirming. So here could be an interesting setup because on the daily it is now confirming — this would be a new bull trend. Let's check on the 12-hour. On the 12-hour, it literally just confirmed — you have a new trend on the 12-hour.
If we look at back-testing, you are very likely to get one ATR back at 85%. You are very likely to get 2 ATR back at 78%, and you're very likely to get 3 ATR back at even 71%. So from a back-testing perspective, always check here how it looks. Virtual looks quite good as a new trend. It has some resistance — the first resistance is going to be here, approximately a 50% pump from here. If you use Bybit or other exchanges with leverage, it's obviously more than that, you can amplify. But then again, managing risk becomes super super important.
ICP is also ripping. Let's check ICP. So looking at ICP on the weekly — still bearish. Let's check daily. Daily is confirming a new bull trend. So this can definitely go into bull. We just have to stay above 2.8 for two more days. But as you know, we have the 12-hour with faster confirmation. This one is literally just closing now — in 3 hours it's going to be confirmed.
I love the 12-hour now because this one — if we can go and return to these highs right here, that would be very very nice. Mostly things have been clearly shown bearish on the money line here throughout, except for this fakeout. But as Bitcoin has been dumping and everything, this fakeout was also quite clear in terms of everything being super bearish. So should the new bull trend have any kind of momentum, fantastic. But again, Bitcoin is still bearish on the weekly. So I would take everything with a grain of salt.
Meaning that we don't drink the Kool-Aid. There's no Kool-Aid. There's no fundamental. We don't care about fundamental here. As long as it's bull, great. If it's bear, finito. We're out. No Kool-Aid. Just bull in, bear out. Fundamental — get out of here. We don't care about fundamental in this case. Fundamental, and it can go down 70%. While Bitcoin is still bearish on the weekly, mistakes will not be forgiven. Mistakes, drinking Kool-Aid, will not be forgiven in this market. That's why you have to be careful.
Trump Meme Coins: Assessment
Will coins like Trump have a chance of making it back? Very very hard to say. Probably not, guys. If I'm to be fully upfront with you, probably not. For these memes to come back, you need community, you need organic growth — more organic, like Doge. Doge is organic. Trump is not organic. So I think it's unlikely. But anything can happen. It seems that the money has already been made — the trade has been made. And which trade? Down only. The trade was maybe the first days, and then it's been down only.
When it comes to Trump, maybe if it goes bullish it makes sense, but I don't think so. The whole Trump thing overall is trending down. The best times for the Trump stuff — I think it's behind us. Like with anyone in power, it's interesting in the beginning, but then it goes down only. So let's see what's going to happen. But I think overall for the whole brand, it's down only now. Should we go bull, if they start printing big green candles, of course we will reconsider. But overall I wouldn't touch it before any kind of bull signal.
Viewer Q&A: Larson Line, Gold, and Moving Averages
Matt is asking about the Larson line flip on gold. I think it's kind of the same as the Bull Market Support Band in terms of — if you look here, the Bull Market Support Band is bullish as well. I would say it's kind of similar where it is a good signal. Personally I don't use it as the main signal — the main signal is the money line — but it's still a good signal. Following this signal can still make sense. It is a signal of bullishness, and then it's up to you to act on it, because there are many different signals you can have. The money line, different moving averages, and so on. But then it's all about what we do with them — what's your entry, what's your stop-loss, and so forth. That's why it's not about having more indicators. It's about learning how to use them and having the mechanical rules.
A comment says the 12-hour timeframe should be added to the Bulmania money scanner. Yeah, that's true. We need to add it. We have 4-hour now. We need to add 12. That's correct.
Gold Analysis: Trading vs. Long-Term Allocation
Anything on gold? Let's check gold. Gold is still bearish on the weekly. It has support here by the Bull Market Support Band. So potentially this thing could come back — kind of like here, where you see it got supported by the Bull Market Support Band and continued back. So potentially it will be able to continue for a bit. But for us this trade is already made — you see this fantastic big fat bull trend. So as a trade for us, it's already been made since the bear flip right here.
At the same time, as you know, having a trade to make money and having portfolio allocation are two different things. That's why I'm considering writing a second book called Big Compound, because this book — Big Profit — is about riding the trend, making as much money as possible in the markets. I explained how I lost a lot of money, how I made it back, and so on, using our strategies. But the brain that you need to have and the mindset you need to have to grow your capital once you already have profit — once you already have some meaningful portfolio — is a bit different.
Let's say you have $500,000, you have $1 million, maybe you have $2 million. Then for example, gold is always important to have to some extent. Maybe a few percent, because you never know what's going to happen. Just as insurance against the worst-case scenario, having just a bit of gold always makes sense. Not because you want to make money, not because you want it to moon — it's as insurance. So that's why the brain to make money and the brain to preserve money — it's different.
So depending on how you ask: does it make sense to have a bit of gold always in your portfolio? I think yes. Throughout time, gold is going up in USD. At the same time, if you are here to trade and you want the best risk-reward and the best opportunity cost — meaning that you don't waste your capital in an old bull trend that you know may go sideways for a while — after such a rise, it makes sense to go sideways for a while. Maybe it will continue to the upside, but we're here more for risk-reward, and now it is bearish. So it's better, when it comes to making profit, to deploy the capital elsewhere in my opinion based on my system.
At the same time, if you have your portfolio for long-term compounding, for long-term wealth preservation and wealth growth, it's not the same as riding the trends and making as much money as possible. You need a different mindset, and there gold always has a place — just like Bitcoin always has a place — because you want to be diversified. Commodities, equities, precious metals — you want to be diversified.
Gold in Recessions and Depressions: Historical Context
Gold will run soon and turn bullish because of recession. It could, but also it could not. Sometimes in recession, gold does not pump. In 2008, gold pumped initially, then it dumped. So in recession — depending on which recession, there are different kinds of recessions — money flows back into the dollar. That's the boring answer, and people think that the dollar is always the worst, but in recession normally you have a flow back into the dollar.
Let's look at what happened in 2008. You had the 2008 situation here that drove quite a lot — by the way, through time you see gold always normally goes up, so having a bit in your long-term portfolio is good. But then here it topped out in 2011 and then dumped like hell — lost 50%. And here you needed to have equities. So initial pump, then not too much pump, and then you have this massive pump followed by needing like five years of sideways to have the next leg up. This is why currently, while anything can happen, just from a trading purpose you have a real risk of a bit of sideways here.
How does gold do in a depression? Theoretically it should do well, until they confiscate it — until they take it from you. Look at gold in the 1930s. They took it. That's why a bit of self-custody crypto is very important also, because you cannot take it.
Portfolio Philosophy: Profit Brain vs. Compound Brain
If you have a bigger portfolio — let's say it goes into millions — you need to switch your thinking a bit. If you're a mega whale, I would say above a million, towards two, three, five million, you need to have gold always, just as insurance in case of hyperinflation.
If you're trading and you want the best risk-reward, there are better places to put money. Gold will run soon and turn bullish — it could. But for trading purposes, there are better opportunities.
Let me explain the mindset. If you have $5 million, you know that if you just put it in treasuries, you get around 5% now for doing nothing. You have $5 million, you get $250,000 — doing nothing. And your risk is that the US goes bankrupt, which is like the lowest risk in finance. There's a higher chance that all other countries go bankrupt before the US because of world reserve currency and so on. So the question becomes: if you have $5 million, how sure are you that you will be able to trade such that you have a profit of $250,000 — more or less guaranteed — because that's what you get if you just put it in treasury?
That's why the mindset becomes quite different. Of course, if you have $1,000, you get 5% — that's $50. What are you going to do with it? Then you have to trade. But if you have a bigger portfolio going into millions, you need to switch your thinking. So yeah, if you're a mega whale, I would say above a million towards two, three, five million, you need to have gold always as insurance.
NASDAQ, S&P, and other ETFs for compounding, and some gold and silver for other commodities — yeah, it could make sense for the long-term compound. But again, it only makes sense if you are rich already. You need to become rich first. That's the first step. Once you have that, then yes — having Bitcoin, bonds, all of this boomer stuff we normally laugh about — it actually makes sense if you have money. If you're rich, it makes sense. If you're poor, it makes little sense. Because once you have money, your goal actually is just not to lose it. That's number one — not to lose it. Because losing it can happen very fast. Literally in 60 days you can lose everything.
So guys, once you have money, don't lose it. Don't get greedy. Don't lose it, because your brain that got you the profit is the same brain that's going to lose you the profit. You need to have like two brains, and you need to be conscious about moving money from the profit bucket — the becoming-rich bucket — to the staying-rich bucket. You need to split your brain cells in two.
Viewer Stories: Losses, Round Number Traps, and Lessons
Someone wrote that they literally had $1 million and now have $29,000, and then it's all of this hex pump-and-dump stuff. Yeah, it's going to happen. If you had $1 million, the compounding on that — it's basically $100,000 per year that just compounds. Now you have $29,000 — that will not compound. So now you need the money line and you need the Bulmania system as soon as possible. We need to fix it. This is the problem — you destroy capital that much, it's a big problem. The guy with $1 million could have had $50,000 to $60,000 per year just from treasuries. People don't think about that. I think many people in crypto don't even know that. For them, this risk-free yield from treasuries is kind of news. They're like, wait, what?
People make millions from shitcoins and they don't understand — wait, this can feed you for life if you don't mess it up. Literally it can feed you for life. You can get between 5% and 10% in TradFi. That's what boomers do. That's why boomers are so rich. They have the treasury. Relatively very low risk — never zero, but as close as you can get. That's why: profit first. You need to make money first. Should you get to $1 million, $2 million, $3 million, then you need to start offboarding your capital from the risky to the compound — from the risky to the compound. And compounding is the perpetual machine that's going to feed you for life.
Someone went from 200 to 10K, back to 2K, then up to 25K, down to 10K, up to 99K, and back to 10K. Let me guess — you went to 99K, you thought "let me just go to 100K, then I sell," and then it went back to 10K. It happens all the time. The round number trap. You went to 99. You thought, "man, let me go to 100 and then I sell, I promise I sell," and then bam, back to 10. It happens way too often. That's why as soon as the bear flip — you're out.
Viewer Q&A: Interests Outside Finance
Azad Ahmed asks: what are your interests outside of financial markets? Any hobbies?
Not too much, to be honest. It's financial markets, working out, and that's basically it. I don't have too many because financial markets — it's not just one interest, there are many different interests. It's quite deep. Before, maybe I played some StarCraft also, but now it's financial markets and working out. It's quite condensed in that regard, and I like it. When it's too much, I also need some time to just take it easy — not do too much. Maybe reading a book, being in the pool or the sun, spending time with the dogs. I don't need too much, man.
And working out takes time. You've got to pump the bicep. Then also the tricep. Then maybe do some cardio. It takes time. For most of my life I've mainly done gym — you go to the gym, you lift. The problem is that you need your cardiovascular to be good. The more you age, the more important it is that your cardiovascular is good. So I switched more towards HIIT — it's both. Some people say you should do CrossFit, but there you can snap your shoulder. I need things that are low risk from the snapping perspective.
I just look at what makes the bicep go up. When I twist, this thing goes bigger. I don't take advice from some guru in the comments. If it goes bigger with twist, it goes bigger with twist. Everyone is different. Maybe your body does not react to twisting. I try different things — if they grow bigger, good. Do twisting, then maybe do without twisting. Get all of the bicep heads working. Different grip, different twist. Blend everything. But bicep needs to go up.
NEAR, Doge, and Closing Coin Analysis
Near about to take off — let's check NEAR. On the weekly, still bear. But let's go to 12-hour. It's been bull for quite some time since March, but it's been like a depressed bull. In terms of breaking structure — going to a new high — this is news. It went above this high. This is news. It's good that it pumps higher. That's very very good for a big fat reversal in this case.
You can trade based on the daily. Weekly still has a bit to go. On the daily — by the way, on the daily you have the 200-day moving average there, and it seems to be closing. I would say should you close above the 200-day, you can have a nice entry here, because then at least you have a better chance that it's not just a rejection at the 200-day. But be careful here also — enter, but set the stop-loss properly, because you can also have a few days trading above the 200-day before it gets rejected. So just keep that in mind. It's quite significant resistance here. But all in all, good strength in NEAR. But the same disclaimer — with Bitcoin still being bearish, very quickly a lot of these alts may become a game of musical chairs. Very quickly.
Let's check Doge. Doge got rejected by the daily flip on the money line. Bigly rejected. Weekly still far away. Daily rejected bigly. That's why it's good to wait a bit for confirmation. On the 12-hour, well, the 12-hour did go bull. Let's see here the probability. So 83, 62, 48. Let's compare to daily. On Dogecoin, daily is more reliable than the 12-hour — you have 93, 56, 56 based on the likelihood of getting different ATRs. So here I would prefer trading on the daily because it's just better risk-reward than the 12-hour. And you still have aligned bearishness — meaning weekly bearish, daily bearish. So overall it's still leaning more bearish than bullish, based on daily, based on weekly. The lower timeframes are bull, but they don't have the same track record as daily based on back-testing.
So yeah guys, thanks a lot for being here. Thanks a lot for contributing to the chat. Big shout out to Guzman who has been timestamping us today. Fantastic. See you all Monday.