Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin and global markets through the lens of escalating Middle East geopolitics
Ivan on Tech delivers his geopolitical market analysis framework, examining Bitcoin, oil, stocks, and currencies amid rising tensions between the US, Iran, and regional powers.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents his "Bullmania geopolitical framework" for navigating markets during the escalating Middle East crisis. He addresses widespread concerns about potential nuclear conflict, hyperinflation, and market collapse by analyzing oil prices, global stock indices, Bitcoin's positioning, gold, and US yields. Ivan argues that while oil's month-long bull trend confirms geopolitical concerns are real, the charts show Bitcoin heading toward a $40K-$60K "buy zone" before an eventual rise to $1 million by 2027-2029. He emphasizes that despite dramatic headlines about nuclear war and regional evacuations, US yield curves show no signs of hyperinflation fears, and the dollar remains stable. His core message: respect the bearish trends now, accumulate Bitcoin in the buy zone, and ignore perma-bear narratives.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Introduction to Geopolitical Analysis Framework
Ivan on Tech: Good morning and welcome to another analysis. Today we'll be analyzing Bitcoin through the lens of geopolitics because geopolitics is getting quite crazy. You look at the news, the news cycle will instill a lot of fear into you and you have to know what's really happening here and I will give you a strategy how to deal with the fear, how to ensure that you profit from the current situation because it is very possible to do. I will show you the Bullmania geopolitical framework how we approach these incidents because trust me I've been doing videos since 2017 on crypto. I've been trading crypto since 2013. So I can tell you that we've been through it all.
In 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine. There was a lot of talk about end of the world nuclear weapon this and that. And frankly the questions people have are always the same. For example, people ask is dollar going to hyperinflate because now we enter some geopolitical turmoil and dollar is going to go to zero. Or people are asking should I buy Bitcoin? Is Bitcoin a good hedge against the turmoil? Or people are asking should I sell stocks or buy stocks? What's going on? That's why we have this framework because believe me, we've been through this many, many times before.
Current Geopolitical Tensions
And yes, this analysis is so important even in the current situation when people are speaking about the potential nuclear war. Look here for example. Kim.com is writing that Iran should prepare for a mass casualty event. "I believe Trump and Netanyahu plan to use nuclear weapons shortly. Probably not only in Tehran but in other places as well. If you feel like surrendering now, do it. If you don't want to kneel to the US, move your leadership to non-population centers."
Also, Iran is demanding the unconditional withdrawal of US forces from the whole West Asia region, which obviously is not going to happen. Next, you have the US ordering their staff to leave all of the countries in the Middle East. So, Saudi Arabia is one country that this article speaks about, but you also have Cyprus. You also have all kinds of other alerts going out. For example, the US embassy is sending out warnings to their citizens in Sweden after an attack happened in Norway on a US embassy. So, it is starting to escalate quite intensely.
You have also the new leader of Iran elected. I mean elected and elected. We can discuss that. But he's installed — Mujtaba Khamenei. He is the son of the last leader Ali Khamenei. His father died in the strikes. His mother also killed in the strikes. His wife killed in the strike. His son killed. His sister killed and brother-in-law and everyone else is basically dead. So the point here is that the news cycle makes it look like this guy is going to fight till the end which is not impossible. I mean it's actually very possible especially because when you look at the situation with this killing of school children in Iran, you have a lot of motivation to fight.
But at the end of the day we can keep reading this forever. By the way, here is Cyprus. If you are in Cyprus, you have to be careful. US raises Cyprus travel advisory. So all of this is going on, a lot of fear, a lot of headlines. We've been here before. Let me tell you exactly how to handle it and how I'm acting in this situation.
And before we start, I want to give a big shout out to everyone who is new here. Subscribe to the channel, smash the like. You're extremely welcomed here. And you should really pay attention because we're one of the few profitable communities in crypto. I mean, most people just tell you to buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip, and then you lose 80 to 90% of your capital. Instead, here you see all of our gains from our Discord in real time. Every day I'm posting all of the gains.
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Step One: Analyzing the Charts First
All right. So, the first step in analyzing the situation according to the Bullmania framework is to look at the chart because we cannot trust the news alone. Looking at the news alone, you never know really what's happening. Is the headline just fear? Is it just someone that wants clicks and traffic or is it a real thing affecting the markets? And the way you know is by looking at the charts.
So for example, when we look at the price of oil, we see that it is clearly above the 200 Moving Averages. It has been in a bull trend already since over a month ago. So if you had the money scanner and you had the access to all of our proprietary tools, you would have known it already. So if I go to bullish here, you see that if I go to anytime, you see that oil has been in a bull trend since a month ago and it's up 54% since then.
Most people speak about oil just now because they hear it in the news and then they share with their audience. If you had access to Bullmania, you've already knew it for over a month ago. So that's that. And so oil is currently in a mega bull trend. It's above 200 week. It is in the bull trend on the money line. And this is the most important chart in the world right now. And clearly it is being affected by the Middle Eastern conflicts.
All of these headlines they are important only as far as they affect the price and they do affect the price currently. We can confirm that. We can confirm that if you would have all of the different headlines but oil doesn't move, nothing moves, it doesn't matter. But in this case clearly the headlines and the geopolitics they matter. They absolutely matter.
So you see for example sometimes people saying oh don't worry, don't spread the panic. Don't spread fear. This Middle East conflict is going to disappear. Well, looking at the charts, the market does not agree. The market here predicts that this is not going to be a quick fix that Trump just comes in and fixes everything fast. Now, likely it's going to be prolonged. And if you've been watching this channel, we also said likely it's going to be prolonged because Iran, you cannot take out Iran with just a few bombs here and there. Likely you need ground invasion or maybe something even worse like Kim.com was speaking about.
Impact on Global Stock Markets
So coming back to the framework, the oil chart is really showing us that there are real concerns here and that the market participants should be careful and oil chart going up. It doesn't only mean that oil is expensive and that there is a shortage of oil. It means that the global stock market is likely to suffer in the coming weeks and months because all of the earnings all the profitability is going to be directly impacted by the oil price.
So now I want to look at the global stock markets and analyze the situation from that perspective. When we look at NASDAQ, you see that it is in a bear trend for quite some time. And when things are in bear trend, we have to be careful. We have to be risk off. Looking at S&P and if we look at the futures here because the S&P market has not opened yet. But looking at the futures, it is now very close to a bear flip. So, US markets are now heading into bearish territory. And if you've been watching this channel, you already know it because we've been discussing it for quite some time here that the chart looks weak for S&P and NASDAQ is already in a bear trend.
Now, looking at the global markets, we can see here the different ETFs that we have in Bullmania that we track. For example, if you go to Japan, you can just search Japan here in the ETFs if you have the money scanner, which is our proprietary software in Bullmania. But you see here for example this Japan ETF which represents the Japanese market overall. It is in fact now in a bear trend and as you can see it is going to open even lower because today Japanese market dumped even more. So when the US markets open this BlackRock Japan ETF is going to dump even more.
So yes indeed we can say that it is a bear trend clearly meaning that here it's likely to continue down further and for Japan we see a drop here of 6% to the 50-week Moving Averages, 12% to 13% to the 100 and 21% to the 200-week Moving Averages and it can easily go to all of them it can easily go all the way here.
The same thing can be seen with South Korea. If we open South Korean ETF here from BlackRock that represents and this is by the way the easiest way to just see what kind of situation we have in different markets. Just look at the ETFs in Bullmania and then we have very interesting drops here of approximately 30% to go to the 50-week, 50% to go to the 100 week and 55% to go to the 200 week.
So South Korea has had a crazy rally here during the last year. So just to revisit these Moving Averages is a big fall. So you can easily go and you can short the different stocks. If you go to stocks here and then you go to country you go to South Korea you can see that a lot of them are now flipping bearish. Samsung for example flipped bearish on weekly just 11 hours ago. Hyundai 11 hours ago. Kia 11 hours ago.
So if you want good shorting opportunities, the Korean market has a lot. And the reason why they're interesting is because it is recent. So it's recent weekly bear flip. Let me show you for example here Samsung. It just now flipped bear after a massive rally since March. So you see here, this is why being early in trends is so important because it rallied 270% and now bearish for the first time. So this is a very important signal for everyone who is trading stocks to get out or short the South Korean market.
Asian Market Shorting Opportunities
Looking at Japan, we have basically the same thing. Tokyo for example, Tokyo Electron just flipped bearish. This Kirin, Mitsubishi 11 hours ago bearish on the weekly and let's just open up this Mitsubishi. Let's see what's happening. How you say I guess Mitsubishi Mitsubishi in your country? Let me know. And do you say Mercedes or Mercedes or how you say let's know obviously not the Japan market but here it had a crazy rally of 100%. And now for the first time it has a bear trend.
So fantastic opportunity. For example, Mitsubishi, you can short the crap out of it. 20% to the 50-week, 38% to 100 week and 51% to a 200 week. And as you know the reason why we track all of these Moving Averages is that as soon as we have a bear trend, the likelihood of us going to these levels is very high and we always come back to these levels eventually. I mean look at any chart look at any stock any crypto will always touch 50 week at some point 100 week at some point and 200 week at some point. So it's very likely that they come down there and yeah this is a great shorting opportunity.
If you look at the market as a whole, coming back to our framework and if we look at charts for the different stock markets we clearly see weakness which is a very important signal for us to be careful to be risk off or short. Okay, this is what it says. We don't look at the news alone. Very important. If we would have the same news, but the charts were up, you would have a completely different analysis. Now, you have all of these different news, bam, bam, bam, that we looked at. And the charts are the way they are. It means risk off. It means careful.
Bitcoin's Current Position
And of course, we have to talk about Bitcoin. So, Bitcoin is in a very interesting position right now. It just got rejected by this yearly low, the 2025 yearly low at $74K. It is now resistance. And the most interesting thing that Bitcoin can do right now is to fall into the buy zone. And I think we're heading there. As you know, we now have this quite big support at $66K. Should we start breaking, it is the buy zone.
And here in the buy zone, it's important to accumulate and accumulate slowly, not fast, because we can still go quite deep into the buy zone all the way to $40K. But overall here between $60K and $40K, it's fantastic buying opportunity. So for Bitcoin, nothing has changed. In fact, the bear thesis for Bitcoin basically it will drop into the buy zone has just strengthened because S&P is on the verge of going bear. NASDAQ is bear. Global stock market Japan is bear. I mean look at any of them.
Most of them are now bear. Let me just check a few European ones while we are here let's see the UK here. Bear. UK stock market bear now confirmed bear can easily go here. I mean just to reiterate a bit because look at Asian markets before 7% 12% and 19%. So somewhere in this range is where we can expect the UK market to bottom out.
Let's look at Germany DAX index here confirmed bear already hit the 50-week and broke below it broke below it did not even use it as support the next one is 5% down so basically global stock markets are all down except S&P but it's on the brink whether you look at the US you look at Europe you look at Asia that we looked at before South Korea and Japan so here you have basically the last man standing at the $66K before the entrance of the buy zone.
Bitcoin's Long-Term Trajectory
And guys, I can tell you that Bitcoin will recover. I can tell you one thing that being on YouTube for so many years, I mean, we've seen so much. We've seen so much through the years. Look here, 2017, is it too late to invest in Bitcoin? Bitcoin was $3K. I can tell you that it's going to be okay. Okay? It may not feel like that. It may not seem like that. It may seem counterintuitive because I do expect Bitcoin to go down, but within 2027, 2028, 2029 time frame, I do expect us to go towards $1 million for one bitcoin because while the US cannot decrease interest rates right now because of the oil price, which is super high, like we said, there's just no way out. I mean, there's just no way out. You will have to print in one way or another. Okay? They will have to print here in one way or another.
So, there's no way out. Fiat is going to go to zero. Bitcoin is going to go to a million but not before coming into the buy zone and accumulating here is very important. It's going to be generational opportunities that we will be utilizing with both our hands. We're going to be grabbing Bitcoin with both our hands and we are in a position to do so because we derisked back in October. So we have all the money in the world to go heavy here.
And again go to bullmania.com if you want to see my track record. Let me see it here. You can scroll down. You can see all of the tweets in October was set to derisk and now our community has the opportunity to get in right here. And that's so precious. That's so important. Do not mess this up.
Step Two: Gold and US Yields
Okay, so the second component has to do with gold and the US yield. And looking at them together, it's very important. If you only look at gold, you're not really sure whether gold pumps because people think that the US is gonna hyperinflate and then the dollar is going to die or whether gold pumps because there is a shortage of gold and many people want gold at that particular time.
So looking at the gold price, what can we say? It is in a bull trend. It continues to be in a bull trend. But at the same time if you look at the US yield here 1 year, 2 year, 5 year, 10 year, 20 year, you see that people are not really pricing in some kind of hyperinflation because if we would have worry about hyperinflation and not just YouTube video worry or Twitter worry there's always someone saying that dollar is going to hyperinflate but how do you see whether the actual big boys, BlackRock, institutions, funds really are worried about it?
You would see it in case the US yield goes up a lot. It means that people are selling US bonds and that the US has to pay a lot of interest rate, high interest rate to borrow money because it's more risky. So looking at for example US one year yield, you see that in general is down. Two-year yield in general is coming down. Five-year yield in general coming down. 10-year yield in general flat slash coming down. 20-year yield in general just flat. The same as it was 2023, kind of the same as it was 2022. 30-year yield also flat.
So, nothing really is going on here. People are not pricing in any hyperinflation. And the fact that gold has been in a big fat bull trend has to do with just supply and demand and the fact that it's been in a very strong crazy bull trend just like if you had the Bullmania money scanner you've known about for quite some time. If I look here, see 84% since the flip over a year ago.
Dollar Strength Analysis
So all in all, that's the second component. And you always have to look at gold and US yield together. It's so important. I know many people who always think that the US dollar is going to hyperinflate and they dump everything US denominated and then the stock market goes into a rally and they miss out for example. It happens all the time. All the time.
So if we see gold pump and US yield go up a lot that is a signal of hyperinflation. I mean let's say tomorrow we wake up and gold is pumping and US yield here it's 8% 10% 15% here instead of three four okay then is different then probably some hyperinflation going on but in all geopolitical questions this idea of US dollar hyperinflating will always be central whether it is the current conflict in the Middle East whenever there is anything geopolitical people always going to be speaking about is the US dollar going to hyperinflate is it the end of the dollar and that's how you check the status whether it's still alive. Well, apparently it's still alive.
And let's also check the dollar strength index because this one is very important to look at as well. And overall, you see that I mean it's the same as last year. It's the dollar is not losing against major currencies. Okay, the dollar in fact during the last weeks during the last basically since January it has been on a bit of a rally here. The dollar obviously not very big small rally but overall you see that the current dollar strength is I mean it's the same as 2022 is the same as these lows here in 2023.
So nothing dramatic has happened here. So what can we conclude based on this that hyperinflation all these narratives are not happening. The US dollar is not going away. In fact, it may even gain strength as the safe haven currency in this turmoil together with gold and other safe haven assets.
Step Three: Probability Assessment
Finally, the last component of the framework is to look at the probability of the different events. For example, many people are speaking about the nuclear war, end of the world, this and that. But if you think about it, how often has it happened that you have end of the world? It has never happened. Can it happen? Obviously, there is some probability. There's also some probability that an asteroid hits your head right now. There's some probability for everything. So, you really have to consider what are the actual probabilities of the different events and position your portfolio accordingly.
That being said, it does not mean to ignore the tail end risks. For example, there is a tail end risk of a nuclear war. We have such a tail end risk. It's not the main scenario. It's not even the secondary or the tertiary scenario. It is a tail end risk, very small probability, but very small probability doesn't mean that it's impossible. Again, when you roll a dice, you want to get a six on your dice. It's low probability, but it can happen. It can happen. Here, the dice probably has a billion edges, maybe a million edges. It's obviously hard to quantify.
At the same time, we need to be very calm and collected and pragmatic and look at the things the way they are placing real probabilities. The last thing you want to do is to always be worried about the stock market collapse, about the nuclear war because some perma bears are always worried. And guess what? They don't make a lot of money in the market. They don't make anything in the market. They're super concerned, super worried. Some of them live in the forest. They are preppers. I mean at some point they're going to have a point but they're going to miss most opportunities in the market.
And again we have to manage tail end risk. We have to manage a small risk of a nuclear war. How do we do that with gold precious metals physical gold? I mean I have a watch here physical in case anything happens I have some value. It's possible that we enter that situation but we have to look at the actual probabilities and do our actions accordingly and not put the smallest but most exciting probability such as the nuclear war as the number one probability because it's the most interesting to speak about and you see it in the news.
Framework Conclusions
So this is the three-step three component framework that we'll look at and that's how it works. And you may be asking Ivan so what's the conclusion what should I buy? What should I sell? What has changed during the last few days of all of this news? And the truth is nothing has changed. I mean literally Bitcoin is in the same position as last week the week before that it's in the bear trend. It's heading down. The same thing is with most altcoins. I mean Solana is still potentially going to $30. That's where the next big support is. You look at the S&P, we already spoke about that is that it looks weak and potentially is going to go to 50 or 100 week Moving Averages.
So just looking at everything, everything is the same and that's maybe the boring answer that nothing really has happened here. But at the same time, maybe also reassuring answer because that's it just proves our methodology here. I mean it just proves our Bullmania framework where the chart is king and some of these things that people are so surprised about or concerned about, we knew already.
I mean we knew oil that's oil in a bull trend for over a month. This is not news to us it's not news I know that many for them it's news like for them they see it in the news but you see that's why looking at the chart is so important because you're going to get the signal before the news. I mean oil is up now since a month ago already in a bull trend since a month ago so of course if you just follow news you just discover oil today okay if you follow the charts you follow the money line you follow our methodology it's not news for you at all.
So that's why I'm telling you go to bullmania.com, watch the free video here as soon as possible. So you can actually learn how trading really works and you're part of the winning team. And of course, if you join Bullmania, if you go to bullmania.com, you watch the free video, you sign up for a strategy call and we give you access to our tools, you're going to get access to the money scanner. This tool that I've been using in all my videos basically that tells you when something is bullish or bearish and you can see how much things pump or dump since they flip bullish or bearish. It works for ETF, commodities, stocks, crypto, anything. And also you get the money line which is this indicator right here which is telling you whether something is bullish or bearish. You get one-on-one coaching and so much more to really ensure that you are on the best path possible to absolutely crush it in the markets.
The Importance of Respecting Trends
And it doesn't matter whether it's a bull or bear market. There's always volatility in the market and you can make money in any market via volatility. But most importantly, you don't want to mess up the next big crypto cycle because at some point, Bitcoin is going to go into a bull trend just like it did back here at the beginning of 2023. And we're going to run very fast, very high towards million. And if you still don't know what you're doing, you're still following people that tell you to buy the dip. You still hold altcoins like Sui or Solana despite them being in bear trend and despite being absolutely slaughtered because you listen to the wrong people.
I mean, look here. Look here at the losses. Look here at the losses that people have who haven't been respecting the bear trend. Look, it's crazy. I mean, look, look here. Look, look, look, look, look, look. How many people told you about it? How many people told you about it? We've been telling you about it. Your favorite influencers probably have been telling you to buy the dip and that's why the results are the way they are. Matic, 78% crazy. Ethena 79. You always have to respect the trend. You always have to know what's happening for real, not just what's in the news. News is always late. News is always there to confuse you. You have to understand what is happening on the chart. And if you go to bullmania.com, you will understand how to read the chart. Go and watch the free video.
Closing Thoughts
Finally, I wish you all the best in this crazy time. Hope you learned something from this video. It's very important. Please give me feedback in the comment section. Tell me what you liked, what you did not like. Subscribe to the channel if you're new here. Smash up the like and we will be back tomorrow.
And most importantly, I want to just remind you about not letting small mistakes turn into big disasters. If you buy some asset, you enter some position, it goes against you, you need to have a plan. Most people don't have a plan. That's how they end up with minus 80%, minus 90% easily. They just hoddle and lose all their money. Again, go to bullmania.com, learn trading for real, and goodbye. I wish you all the best. Have a good day and goodbye.