Ivan on Tech explains his $40K Bitcoin bottom target using Fibonacci analysis
Solo presentation by Ivan (Ivan on Tech) on Bitcoin price analysis and bear market strategy.
Summary
Ivan, host of the Ivan on Tech YouTube channel, presents his case for why Bitcoin's most likely bear market bottom is around $40,000. He uses Fibonacci retracement analysis applied across multiple Bitcoin market cycles to justify the target, showing that the 0.7 Fibonacci level has historically marked the bottom — or slightly below it — in past cycles. He also addresses viewer pushback on whether the relatively modest size of the last bull market should lower expectations for the bear market bottom, arguing that Fibonacci methodology already accounts for bull market size by design. Throughout, he emphasizes that all targets are probabilistic, not certain, and that a practical accumulation strategy within a defined buy zone is more important than waiting for any single price level.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Introduction and the $40K Target
Ivan: Welcome back. Today we'll be speaking about whether Bitcoin is going to go to $40K, because as you know we have this buy zone. We've had it for a very long time. If you go back and watch my videos from October, from November, from December, we said that Bitcoin is topping out in October. We were one of the few. We said it's going to go into the buy zone, which is at around the 200-week moving average and below. As you can see, this is the 200-week moving average — the white line — and our target is approximately $40K.
If you look at this, and again you can go back and watch my channel and look at past videos, we have this in all videos. The buy zone and this $40K target is not random. In fact, many of you have been asking me to do a video and explain why $40K — why not $50K, why not any other number. And also many of you are wondering whether I've considered the fact that the last bull market was not super big. We did not see Bitcoin go to $200K. We did not see this crazy altcoin season. So people are asking: Ivan, have you considered that when you set the target? Because if we didn't have a big bull market, we shouldn't have a big bear market.
In this video, we're going to discuss all of that, because everything is considered and everything is accounted for.
Disclaimer: Targets Are Probabilistic, Not Certain
The first thing you need to know about a bottom target is that in case the price reverses before that bottom, we will have to adjust. I want to be clear about that as a disclaimer, because some people have a target and then the price never meets that target, and they wait and wait and wait while the whole market turns in the other direction.
When I tell you about my bottom target, it is the most likely scenario. But you should know that should we see another market in front of us in a month or two months, we will adapt. I actually write about this in my book Big Profits, where I discuss the trap that many people fall into called the target number trap. Basically, you have a number in your head — maybe you want to turn $1K into $100K, maybe you want Bitcoin to reach $100K so you can retire. This target feels motivating, but it can also destroy you. For example, Bitcoin turned around at $69K in the previous bull market and then went down, and many people were waiting for $100K. The same thing applies here. Yes, our target is at $40K, and I will explain to you why that is. But should we see another market in the coming months, if we see more strength from Bitcoin, we will of course adapt.
The Fibonacci Tool Explained
So, how can we possibly see where the bottom will be? There are several different tools we can use. The first tool I want to show you is the Fibonacci tool. This is a way to basically measure the bull market, and then based on the size of the bull market, we can measure where the bear market will bottom.
Let's use the last bull market as an example, which started here in 2018 at this low, then went all the way until the end of 2021. If we use the Fibonacci tool and measure from the bottom to the top, you can see that we bottomed out at the 0.7 Fibonacci level — a very significant level. The way it works is that you measure the move to the upside, the whole move, and then you see all these different levels that tell you where a possible bottom is likely.
These Fibonacci levels are super powerful. As you can see, this level here was used as support, then we broke down. Then this level here was used as support, then we broke down. And then finally we found the bottom right here at 0.7.
Applying the Fibonacci Tool to the Current Cycle
If we use a similar logic and apply this tool to the current situation, measuring from the bottom to the top, you can see that the 0.7 level is at approximately $38K. So $40K, $38K — approximately there. As you can see, we are now using this Fibonacci level as support, trying to cling on to it, and then we use this level as support as well. This is quite a good tool overall for approximating where the bottom will be. All bottoms are going to be approximate — I just want to set expectations straight — and in case the market reverses before the bottom is hit, we will have to adapt.
Historical Validation Across Past Cycles
You may be asking: did it work in the past? Is it only the last bull and bear cycle that was like this, or did it also work before? Let's check.
For example, the bull market that started in 2014, where the bottom was in 2014, then went all the way to 2017. You can see that we actually went below the 0.7 level. So here it didn't hold as support — we actually went below it. But yes, we did hit 0.7 and then went below it.
And if we look one more cycle back, in 2011 — the cycle from 2011 until it topped out in 2013 — as you can see, we bottomed out exactly at 0.7. So based on all of the cycles, we can see that in most cases we bottom out at 0.7, and one time we actually went below it. So 0.7 is a target we normally hit, and occasionally we go below it.
Does This Account for the Size of the Last Bull Market?
Now, back to the question of whether this method considers the fact that the last bull market wasn't that big. As you can see, we measure the size of the bull market to see where the bottom will be. So by definition, the Fibonacci methodology is based on the bull market size.
It's also important for you to understand that I don't like the argument that says, "Hey Ivan, the bull market was not big so the bear market will not be big." I don't like that — why? Because how do you measure that? How do you trade based on that?
Even the saying that we didn't get an altcoin season — which you probably recognize — is not entirely true, because meme coins went parabolic. You did see Dog With Hat go to a $5 billion market cap. We did have an altcoin season. Now, many coins did not perform well — I understand that. Many blue chips did not perform well. If you just look at the top coins, they did not perform well. I totally understand why people are disappointed. You had, for example, Avalanche not even reach an all-time high. It's supposed to be a blue chip. It didn't even get to an all-time high — it just went here, while the all-time high was all the way back in 2022. So I understand that many people are disappointed in their altcoins. But to say that we didn't have an altcoin season — I don't agree.
And this has thrown off many people. As you know, since October we've been risk-off. You can see how I was basically screaming that it is time to be careful. For example, on October 9th I said that on October 8th I'm not a fan of the fakeout, and that the bear risk had increased, and so forth. The most common reply people gave me was: "Hey Ivan, why do you say so? We don't have any of the top signals. All coins have not moved." And so on.
But what we need to do is actually look at the price. We need to look at what the price is doing. Is it weak? Is it strong? I don't in general like this idea that we didn't have a bull market so we won't have a bear market, because many people get trapped because of that. And even if you consider that argument, Fibonacci levels still account for it, because they literally measure the size of the bull.
Theory vs. Practice: The Probabilistic Approach
Now let's go from theory to practice, because if you've read my book you'll understand that everything is probabilistic. The market is probabilistic. We have a target. It may or may not hit, because it's probability — it's the highest probability. But most people don't understand that highest probability does not mean 100%. It does not mean 100%.
Let's say you roll a dice. There's a low chance you're going to get a six — just by looking at the dice, it's the lowest chance. It can still happen. Just like in the markets, when you have a low-chance scenario, it can still happen. Currently, it's a low chance that we just go straight up from here. It may happen. It's not impossible. It may happen.
That's why having a target is theoretical, and the practical strategy may be a bit different. That's why, as you can see, we have the buy zone — meaning that we don't wait for $40K to hit. We buy within the buy zone and we accumulate slowly. And then once Bitcoin goes back into a bull trend — which is this green area you see here — that's how we bought Bitcoin heavily in January 2023 and rode the whole bull market until the end.
The same thing is going to happen in this bear market. At some point we're going to go bull. That is the signal to go heavy. That can happen before $40K. It can happen even lower than $40K. We don't know. But that's the signal to go heavy. Before we go heavy, we accumulate slowly in the buy zone. This way, whatever happens, you're in a good spot. Let's say we go to $40K — great. We don't go there and turn around before that — also great. That's very important.
Markets are probabilistic. They're unpredictable and we don't know what's going to happen. But we know the probabilities. If you know market analysis, if you've been reading my book Big Profits, you know that the likelihood of further downside is the highest likelihood — not a guarantee, not a certainty. That's why the practical approach is different from the theoretical, because in practice we have to account for the different possibilities that are not likely but are possible.
Most people don't even understand that this is a thing. Most people just want a step-by-step plan: I buy Bitcoin when this exact dollar number hits. Obviously, it's impossible. The world doesn't work like that. And this is why most people lose money.
In my book, I write that 19 out of 20 people in the market lose money. People have this idea that the markets are very bad and you should not be in them. But here's the thing about that statistic — it's true, but it's misleading. Those people aren't really traders in any meaningful sense. They're retail mom-and-pops. They're people who saw something on the news and decided to try their luck. They're folks who downloaded an app, deposited some money, and started pressing buttons without any real understanding of what they're doing. Calling these people traders is like calling someone who has never sat on a bicycle a cyclist. Of course they fall over — they never learned how to ride.
The same thing applies here. When I explain the difference between theory and practice, for most people it's like they're discovering quantum physics — they suddenly realize, "Holy crap, I need to have both scenarios in mind and adapt my strategy accordingly." For them, it's genuinely new.