Digital Asset News host discusses the Fed's incoming chair, AI's impact on crypto, and peace talk developments
A solo commentary episode from the Digital Asset News channel covering Trump's Iran peace talk cancellation, incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh's views on AI and inflation, and the case for AI as a crypto killer app.
Summary
The host of Digital Asset News opens with a breaking update on Donald Trump canceling peace talk negotiations with Iran, then pivots to the main topic: incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's view that AI will drive a structural decline in prices — a position the host sees as a meaningful shift from Jerome Powell's inflation-focused stance. The host argues that AI, far from destroying jobs, is making workers dramatically more productive, citing data from Anthony Pompliano and commentary from Jason Calacanis and Marc Andreessen. Andreessen's claim that AI agents will need internet-native money — and that crypto and stablecoins are the natural fit — forms the central crypto thesis of the episode. The host closes with rate cut probability data from CME Group, personal DCA strategy around Bitcoin risk levels, and a brief account of using AI to build a website for an animal shelter in Puerto Rico.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Trump Cancels Iran Peace Talks
Host: It looks like the new Fed chair is already pivoting, and it is actually good news. Before we get into talk about Kevin Warsh, who will be the new Fed chair taking over from Jerome Powell roughly after May 15th, we need to talk about peace talks. This just came out roughly an hour ago, and this is from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
Donald J. Trump: "I just canceled the trip of my representatives going to Islamabad, Pakistan to meet with the Iranians. Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work. Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their leadership. Nobody knows who's in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards. They have none. If they want to talk, all they have to do is call. Call me on my phone. It's the best phone of all time."
Host: So this is pretty much par for the course as we go into it. Take it with a grain of salt — tomorrow there'll be a peace talk and the Strait of Hormuz will be secured and everything will be great, and then Monday it will totally change. We can't deal with that within our sphere of control. Let's take a look at the things we can actually take control of.
Kevin Warsh's AI Thesis and What It Means for Rates
Host: This is Kevin Warsh, and he is going to be taking over as the Federal Reserve chair. He says something very interesting in this Squawk Box exclusive — something I never really thought about. I always believed he was going to raise rates like crazy, but let's take a listen.
Kevin Warsh: "What we call AI in a couple of years we'll just call business. AI is going to make almost everything cost less, and the US can be a big winner. It's a hugely exciting moment. If I were to step back for a minute — if I were the president — what I'd be worried about is a central bank that doesn't see any of that. A central bank that is stuck with models from 1978, governance from a prior period, and doesn't recognize we could be at the front end of a productivity boom. If I were the president, I'd be worried that they might not see it, and they might think economic growth is somehow going to be inflationary. I think we're probably in the early innings of a structural decline in prices. I think if you look over the period of the next year or two, it's a pretty special moment."
Host: When he talks about prices going down and growth not being inflationary, that was the big worry with Jerome Powell. Now, I'm not saying Warsh is going to start cutting rates like crazy. It's just that this was a bit of a pivot from what I remember hearing Kevin talking about before. Maybe it's just an updated view of things — I've actually updated my view as well when it comes to AI. We'll see how it all works out.
As far as rate cuts go, we can take a look at the CME Group, and it is not happening anytime soon according to the experts. The next meeting is April 29th, which is next week. Currently the target rate is 350 to 375, and there is a 99% chance it stays there. Remember, Warsh doesn't take over until after May 15th when Jerome Powell actually steps down. I believe — correct me in the comments — that Jerome is actually staying on the board, just not as chair.
Moving forward to June 17th, the experts are telling us there's not going to be a rate cut either. It's 350 to 375, with only a 5% chance of a cut to 325 to 350. It's interesting to note that on April 29th there's actually a 1% chance of a rate hike. We'll see where it goes — it's not just Jerome Powell's call, there are other governors involved.
Moving further out: July shows an 83% chance rates stay the same. September — now we're talking. We're almost at a 70/30 split, around 72/24, down to 300. By October the probability of cutting actually goes up to 27%. I think the best case scenario would be one cut in December. But again, these are what the experts are saying, and it will fluctuate. And really, it all comes down to AI and what's going to happen.
How AI Is Changing Jobs — Not Destroying Them
Host: I want to share how I've changed my mind about AI. I grew up in the era of dystopian movies — Terminator, The Matrix, all of those — where AI was going to be the destroyer of humanity. And we kept hearing about how AI is destroying jobs and businesses. This is Jason Calacanis, host of the All-In Podcast. He thought the same thing I did, but when he put it into practice, it was a lot different. Take a listen.
Jason Calacanis: "The ability to learn new skills, to problem-solve, to learn new skills — because what I'm seeing is the people in my own organization, I have a lot of young people, the three or four who took to Claude first, in 30 days they became literally five times more valuable than the people who didn't. At that point I said I'm calling a code red. This Sunday, the five people who know how to do this — Oliver, Lucas — train everybody else. Fifteen people showed up and now we have the whole organization."
Host: He reiterated this again on the podcast. He said the people that actually took to AI, he's never going to fire them because they are the most productive. It's about bringing people in and training them on AI.
Now, what does AI have to do with a crypto channel? I'll get to that in a second. But it's not just Jason Calacanis — it's also Bitcoin bull Anthony Pompliano, who says the same thing. He wrote: "I changed my mind on how AI will impact jobs. Previously I believed AI would replace everything. The data is saying something different. The number of software engineers being hired has been increasing. The number of open software engineering roles is growing. The number of new college grads who got hired has increased 5.6% over the last 12 months. The unemployment level for people aged 20 to 24 has decreased from nearly 9% to almost 5%."
There's also another study looking at radiologists — a field people thought would fall off the wayside as AI took over reading scans. Instead there's a boom, because more people are using MRIs and X-rays, and the conclusion is: AI does a pretty good job, but you still need a radiologist for finalization. So it's one of those things where you think, wow, I didn't see that coming.
AI Agents, Crypto, and the Grand Unification Thesis
Host: To get to the whole crypto crux, this is Marc Andreessen — one of the creators of Netscape, one of the first browsers, an angel investor who's been involved in early-stage companies including Coinbase. Take a listen to what he says about AI and crypto.
Marc Andreessen: "Yeah, now I think it's going to happen for sure. There are two reasons. One is we actually have internet-native money now in the form of crypto, stablecoins, and crypto. I think this is the grand unification — basically AI plus crypto is what's about to happen. I think AI is the crypto killer app. That's where this is really going to come out. And then the other reason is just — I mean, it's now obvious. AI agents are going to need money, and it's already happening. If you've got Claude and you want it to buy things for you, you have to give it money in some form."
Host: I would say adoption is probably 0.1% right now, but think forward — where is it going? The ultimate principle of everything we do is the William Gibson quote: "The future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed." His friends who are the most aggressive users of Claude have given their Claude instances bank accounts and credit cards.
Okay, that is the most interesting and simultaneously alarming thing I've heard. I mean, it makes sense what he said, but giving AI agents credit cards, debit cards, and transaction access — you can do this, and this is where it all comes from. He talks about later on the killer app using different stablecoins.
For me, when I look at stablecoins, it's always the same thing: look at the best ones, the ones the rails run on — Binance, Ethereum, Solana, Tron. If you can squeeze in Bitcoin and the Lightning Network, so much the better. But for transactional costs of fractions of a penny for API integrations, why would you use the old system? It doesn't make any sense. And I think that is where things are going.
The Host's Personal AI Journey — Building a Website for an Animal Shelter
Host: Let me share my quick personal journey with AI. I did a little vibe coding and built a website from scratch — and I don't do anything with code — for an animal shelter I work with in Puerto Rico called Amigos. Their old website was something from 1999. I said, "I want you to upgrade this, add a donations function, show the actual dogs so people can adopt, foster, donate, or volunteer." And it just spat it out. Worked out pretty well. A little AI agent was also built in so people can ask questions about the dogs. We've seen a little uptick in fosters, adoptions, donations, and WhatsApp group activity.
If you're a dog lover like myself — there's one right there doing nothing — my friend Audrey gave up her house two decades ago to essentially create a foster home for abandoned dogs in Puerto Rico. A PBS documentary just came out on what she's doing, covering her shelter and also her work with veterans. If you want to take a look at that, the link is in the description. It makes you think about what's really important.
If you're curious about getting into AI — especially along the lines of what Jason Calacanis was talking about — the person I've been watching lately is Sabrina Ramonov. I've listened to a lot of people: the Alex Finns, the Anthropic folks, all of it. This one so far is the one that breaks it down enough for me to actually understand it. Especially when she talks about Claude and ChatGPT. Links in the description.
Q&A — Exchanges, Bitcoin DCA Strategy, and Altcoins
Host: Let's get into a little Q&A.
Vision Pulse asks whether a major exchange is insolvent. Aren't all exchanges insolvent? It seems like every time we turn around somebody's talking about how this one can't do it. Maybe it is — I've seen a lot of collapses in my day. And it's not just crypto exchanges. Don't forget, a couple of banks actually went bankrupt and insolvent in 2022.
Perry brings up a domino effect and the concern that Michael Saylor will get wiped out and owe billions to investors. We'll see. Energy costs will come back down — they always go up in summers, especially in the EU and UK.
On food costs still being high: the thing with inflation is that people say "inflation's down," but it's not that it ever goes down. It's just that year-over-year it's decreased. Inflation always goes up. That's pretty much the thesis of why I buy Bitcoin every single Monday. The government — not just ours, all governments around the world — is going to keep printing fiat cash. So why wouldn't I get something that is deflationary, which Bitcoin is? I know people say the price action is awful. But I always look at it as a long-term store of value, not a short-term trade. It's too volatile for that. But I've been doing this since 2017, and it's worked out pretty well so far.
Kelby asks: "Robbie, still buying if we go above 80?" Yeah. Let's take a look at the risk levels. I use Ben's risk levels as much as possible. If you're into XRP, BNB, Solana, Tron, Dogecoin, and so on, take a look at those risk levels. For Bitcoin, I buy everything below 0.5 on the risk scale — and the 0.5 level is currently around $109,000. So it's just a 1x. If I'm going to spend $100, at 0.49 to 0.40 I'll spend $100. When it goes below that to 0.39, I'll double up. Then triple up, quadruple up. And if you get to risk levels around $35,000, well, historically speaking, unless Bitcoin goes to zero, you're doing pretty well. At $80,000 I'm still doubling or tripling up — it's still below $83,000. Long-term. Long-term.
John says Pepe went on a tear. Nothing wrong with little altcoins as a bit of a gamble. People do things like Polymarket and Kalshi — I always say those are for losers. Some people say they've won, and that's great, but 80% plus are in the red.
On the question of whether DCAing even a small amount is worth it: I said the same thing in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, people weren't even really talking about a four-year cycle. We went from almost $20,000 down to sub-$5,000, and I was asking myself: is it really going to make a difference if I spend $500 on Bitcoin and get 0.1 Bitcoin, and then do it again next week? It worked out pretty well. I did the same thing on Cardano — 9 cents, 10 cents, who cares about this junk? And I remember buying Ethereum at $100. In 2020 we had this little thing called coronavirus, everybody was panicking, and Solana was like $9 or $10. You just buy a little bit.
I actually made a mistake in 2020. I took my foot off the gas and did what I called micro-DCAing — not looking at risk levels, just putting in about 20% of what I normally would. It was the dumbest thing I could have done. All I had to do was keep dollar-cost averaging and it would have worked out.
The big thing — and I'll leave it here — is not about buying. I think everybody's pretty good at that. The big thing is about taking profits and selling, and that's what everybody gets wrong. That's what I'll be focusing a lot on in the next cycle.