Ivan on Tech analyses Bitcoin's bear market position and broader crypto/stock market conditions
Ivan on Tech presents a solo market analysis covering Bitcoin's position near the 200-week moving average, onchain activity signals, stock market performance, and various crypto and tech news items.
Summary
Bitcoin sits near its 200-week moving average as Ivan on Tech argues that despite Bitcoin remaining in a technical bear trend with lower highs, it is cheap at current levels and represents a buying opportunity via dollar-cost averaging. He draws parallels between the relentlessly rising S&P 500 — which many said could never reach 8,000 — and where Bitcoin will eventually go, framing both as reasons to shift mentally bullish. He highlights significant onchain activity on Solana, particularly around Pump.fun, the FOMO app, and new tokenized stock/memecoin pairing mechanisms on platforms like Launch on SF, arguing these are early bull market signals. He also covers the Trezor customer data leak affecting users in multiple countries, Tether completing an audit, MicroStrategy and Metaplanet increasing Bitcoin holdings, OpenAI executive departures, and a discussion of Michael Burry's bearish "circular financing" argument about AI stocks — which Ivan acknowledges has merit but argues should not be acted on until a bear trend is confirmed. Ivan and his chat also explore the mythology of Cassandra at length, which Burry invokes to describe himself, and the episode closes with a testimonial from Bulmania community member Ivet, a retired 60-year-old who describes how joining Bulmania transformed her unstructured crypto approach into a disciplined, profitable strategy.
Key corrections from the original summary:
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's Position at the 200-Week Moving Average
Ivan: Final coffee check. Oh yes. Guys, welcome to another episode. As you can see right now, Bitcoin is still at around the 200-week moving average — actually going a bit below. Let's see if we can get to the 40s and the 50s. If we get there, fantastic — fantastic opportunity to keep DCAing here in the buy zone.
We're still in the bear trend. The situation is still that we are in a bear market. We have a high, a lower high right here, and then a lower high right here. And now potentially we do another lower high. All in all, Bitcoin is cheap here. It's time to be bullish, to think bullish.
Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund and MicroStrategy
Just like Norway's fund, which is the world's largest sovereign wealth fund. As you know, Norway as a country has a big fat fund. They invest because they have oil, and they use their brain a bit — instead of wasting the oil money, they created a big fat sovereign wealth fund. And they are increasing their MicroStrategy holdings.
Now, we've been looking at these AI slope ads by Michael Saylor. Maybe, guys — did they get convinced when they watch the ads? Let's watch the newest one from yesterday. Every day he's pushing AI slope ads. This is the new one. Yes, it works, man. It works. As you can see, he can produce the results so that the big allocators are now allocating, because Bitcoin is cheap and MicroStrategy is cheap.
There's another one — Saylor did not retweet this one, but it's kind of similar. It's also a new one. This guy, L. Dodger, he's pushing these ads all the time. Guys, this works. People are laughing, we're laughing, but this could be the advertising genius behind all of it.
Stock Market Bull Trend and S&P 500 All-Time Highs
So you have, number one, the stock market. Bitcoin is cheap. Stock market is pumping. Some people are saying that the stock market is not cheap. Everyone has been saying the stock market will not pump. That there's no way it goes to 7,800. There's no way it goes to 8K. But the stock market relentlessly keeps going up. It is in a bull trend. It's been in a bull trend for quite some time.
So when things are in a bull trend, you don't question them. You don't start speaking about whether it's overvalued or not overvalued, because something overvalued can become even more overvalued. S&P 500 all-time high. Congratulations to everyone who is in stocks. NASDAQ not all-time high but close to all-time high. People have been saying it's too high, it's too expensive — and yet, and yet, we're pushing higher.
Bitcoin will reach the same at some point. We're not there yet, but it is time to think more bullish. It is time to see that sooner or later Bitcoin will have its time in the sun.
Ansem's Onchain Analysis and the Case for Positioning Now
I really liked how Ansem put it, because as you know, we've been preaching exactly the same thing now for weeks and weeks — basically for the whole month of July and now half of August — that it's time to be bullish. We've been turning bullish mentally, and also financially, but to a small extent only — 10 to 15% with DCA before the bull trend. But Ansem is saying something kind of similar. Listen to this.
Ansem: Crypto majors are down a lot right now. But when you start to see onchain picking up the way it's picked up — and as you can see over the past few weeks with the show, we've had different guests on talking about the different stuff that's happening onchain — even if you haven't deployed capital yet or allocated yet, now's the time to start paying attention, to start figuring out what spots you're going to pick, even if you want to allocate for the rest of the year. Because when crypto majors do turn back and start moving again, you'll already be positioned before everybody else. And you can kind of see — with Pump.fun and with the FOMO app — there is a lot of increased retail and media attention coming into the space, and you want to front-run that. So crypto majors are down a lot right now, but when you start to see onchain—
Pump.fun, FOMO App, and Onchain Activity as Bull Signals
Ivan: Yeah, so when we look at what's happening onchain, guys, there are big moves. He mentioned Pump.fun, he mentioned the FOMO app, which is like similar to Pump.fun I guess — I haven't used it myself. I don't know, can you mint coins on FOMO or is it only for trading? All you trenchers can tell me.
But I know for sure that there's a lot of activity. Pump.fun, for example, in the last seven days is up 25%. Since the bull flip on the daily, Pump.fun is up 34%. This is from our Bulmania AI — I just asked it because I hear a lot about the FOMO app and Pump.fun. I asked: what's the current state of the FOMO app versus Pump.fun?
So number one, we see the financial data — Pump.fun is doing very well, it's mooning quite heavily. If we look on the daily — fantastic pump. When we look on the weekly — also bull trend. So both daily and weekly are in bull trend on Pump.fun.
So you have the comparisons here. Pump.fun has a new thing by the way — callout rewards. We're going to read about that. They've also added a social feed and are pushing aggressive onboarding. That's number one. The FOMO app is competing as a social trading app, forcing Pump.fun to ship. But I don't think FOMO app has the minting feature — maybe they do. FOMO app has no coin yet. As always in a bull market, a coin is very likely for these big apps. Pump.fun's coin is leading. The trench beta bounce is very nice. Social temperature is very hot. There's a lot of noise around Pump.fun because they're pushing — they're pushing the founder Alon plus official product updates.
Let me see if I can get this callout feature. Introducing callout rewards. So you basically say, "Hey, I'm bullish on this thing," and you get paid daily based on the volume your callout drives to a token. So if you shill a coin and then people trade from your shill post, you get rewarded — you get a cut of the trading. I think Vector had something similar already in the past, so it's not a fully new thing, but yeah, good. In the bull market, guys, all of this is going to be fantastic. You can sign up, you can start shilling, you can start promoting, you can start calling out.
They're also saying: "Our main goal with Pump.fun is to help grow the market for onchain trading by 100x. We need to make it much easier for new users to get involved." One of the big steps they took to solve this was the reintroduction of social features on the app. Most importantly, callouts provide a way for experienced traders to share their insights and get a cut of volume.
Tokenized Stock and Memecoin Pairings on Solana
Also on Solana, guys, they are copying a bit of the Robinhood stuff. You have the launch of Launch on SF — this new launcher which basically copies the idea from Robinhood where you launch a memecoin and it's tied to a tokenized stock. The liquidity pool is memecoin plus the stock. So they are positioning themselves as a launch and distribution layer that settles on Raydium. They're not doing their own AMM — they're using Raydium. They have some buyback mechanism and it's basically a carbon copy from Robinhood.
The whole idea here is that when you have a stock pump, it's going to pump your memecoin. When the memecoin pumps, it also pumps your assets. So basically they both pump each other. Stocks pump memecoins and when the memecoin pumps you also make money. The liquidity pool has this boosted mode where both assets in the liquidity pool can potentially pump. They can also potentially dump a lot — so that's very important to keep in mind.
And then there's also Tree. Tree is a protocol on top of Launch where if you have Apple stock, you get a seed from them. You can plant that seed, you can grow a tree, and you get more Apple stock. So a bit of a new experiment — a bit of ponzinomics with kind of like DeFi summer, but now with tokenized stocks. The tagline is simple: trade the tree, earn the apple, plant the seed. You buy and hold Tree, you collect Apple stock — tokenized — every 0.1 Apple earned you get one seed, you plant the seed in the garden, up to five plots, seven days to grow, you harvest a base 30K Tree.
Anyway, as you can see, if you are very into this, it kind of reminds you of DeFi summer. I hope we're going to have a DeFi summer now with tokenized stocks where the mechanics are different. It may sound dumb when you just read it, but then if you get into it, you're the correct person for this. It's very attractive — the kind of thing that DeFi natives love. In DeFi summer, you remember: you have a coin, you can stake it, you get a staked coin, that staked coin you can put in another protocol, you get even more rewards, those rewards you can stake there, you get another coin. You combine different stuff, you get different coins, you build up your leverage. The ponzinomics becomes super leveraged. Then it all collapses in the bear. That's fine. That's fine.
There's a certain type of trader — and actually many, many people in crypto — who love this kind of stuff. If you look at this and you feel like it doesn't make sense, it's okay. Most people who are just buying a bit of Bitcoin, for them it's crazy. But for those of us who are a bit into the onchain world, it is a good sign that these things are happening. Because I can tell you, it is one of the early signs of the bull when onchain stuff is happening. When you had the memecoins last cycle, they also started a bit in the bear — they did not start in the bull. Already in the bear you had onchain moving, the creation of tokens and all of that. And now it's the same thing here. Something onchain is happening.
Yes, Bitcoin may still go to 50K, but something onchain is moving. And none of it is on Base. I feel sorry for Jesse. Jesse tried getting people onchain. He did that video — you remember? "Can you get onchain? Let's go onchain." And then he has some boring app there where you tweet and mint your tweet. This is onchain. Okay, this is onchain. You have Apple stock. You plant the seed. You get more Apple stock. You plant more. You understand?
Why Tokenized Stock Pairings Are Significant
More about this stock situation on Solana. Why this might be the most asymmetrical launchpad on Solana since Pump.fun — coin pairings. Simple yet genius. A feature that truly unlocks endless possibilities in crypto and opens up entirely different investor circles to onchain markets. Right now you can pair any meme with any stock, including IPO stocks, or even with another meme. Onchain traders have felt exhausted and bored for a very long time. But through Robinhood Chain Launch and now Launch on SF — which is copying the same concept from Robinhood into Solana — we finally have reason for renewed optimism.
The pairing feature allows for endless permutations and the door has been unlocked to a world of new possibilities. Here's how it increases the odds of winning. Consider every trade we make as a roll of the dice. The higher the number you roll, the greater your potential profit. Catalysts and events are factors that influence the number you roll. With a single pairing — for example, when you have your shitcoin paired to USDT or USDC — you have a set number of catalysts that can increase your odds. With a double pairing, however, that number of catalysts increases.
So you may have one liquidity pool of your shitcoin with USDC, and then another liquidity pool with your shitcoin and, let's say, a memecoin. If that memecoin moons, then the dollar value of your shitcoin will also moon because it's a connected liquidity pool — it basically connects the value of asset A to the value of asset B. In most cases asset B is just a stablecoin, so it's just tied to the dollar. But if you have asset B being a legit thing that moons itself, then your asset A will also moon. If you don't understand this, you don't understand liquidity pools — go on YouTube and search how liquidity pools work.
So you now have two different assets, each with their own catalysts, meaning you potentially have better odds of rolling a higher number. Exactly — when any of them moon, in the liquidity pool the dollar amount of both will moon.
The conclusion here: is it time to ape? Is it time to go nuts? Is it time to participate in all of this? Definitely dip your toe in what's happening, because it's quite a lot. Just in recent weeks, it's quite a lot of stuff happening all the time onchain. But for us on the big macro picture in crypto, the biggest signal here is the fact that you now have onchain activity, and it's one of the early signals for the bull market.
Gemini, Joe Rogan on Trump and Crypto
Gemini increased Bitcoin treasury holdings to 5,500 Bitcoin. Good. Gemini is increasing. Good.
Joe Rogan — he's a bit shocked. He's shocked that Trump has made so much money from crypto. Listen to this.
Joe Rogan: This government has done some things that no government has ever done before. And one of them is the crypto stuff. The crypto stuff's nuts.
Guest: Trump has made billions in crypto.
Joe Rogan: Government's so crooked. And then you've got his sons, and his sons are involved in all these weird business deals where the business deals have to do with some things that Trump put in place, and then the sons are involved in these businesses. And there's a lot of money flowing around that you could dig into and start arresting people.
Ivan: He is sensing correctly that the winds have changed a bit. With his podcast, he can no longer be Trump-only. But also, you know, when someone gets into government, it's different. It's different when someone is running for president — it's one thing. Once they are there, they're like the establishment, and it's different. So obviously for a podcaster like Joe Rogan, to be a government shill is not good. It's also natural that you have someone who is up and coming — once they're in government, okay, are you going to be a government shill or what?
But it's also very true that if you have a new administration come in, holy crap, guys — there's going to be a lot of problems for crypto. I think there are going to be many investigations. What did everyone know? Who did the Trump coin? Which exchanges? The collaborations, the money flows? Yeah, it's going to be crazy.
SpaceX, Tesla, and the Potential Merger Trade
Also, something else you have to look at — what's happening now with SpaceX and Tesla. For all of you who are very much into these discussions, I just watched James yesterday and they discussed some interesting things there with SpaceX and Tesla.
SpaceX — as you know, we've been bullish since a few days ago because on the hourly it's a nice, beautiful bullish trend. A nice, beautiful, fantastic, bullish, crispy trend right here since August 7th. As a reminder to everyone — maybe you're new, maybe you missed it — our call here was bear, bear, bear. Don't touch, don't touch, don't touch. It fell more than 50%. And here from August 7th, we said bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish.
Now, speaking about the government, there is a potentially interesting trade with Tesla — where if SpaceX acquires Tesla, or they merge in some fashion, there is some free premium to be harvested here. This is a big question now within the Tesla community. Will Tesla be merged into SpaceX?
The reason why it's interesting is because it's the same argument as with crypto when it comes to the administration. The current administration would probably have no problem with Tesla merging with SpaceX. If you have Bernie Sanders or everyone else who doesn't like billionaires and trillionaires, this merger is going to be very problematic.
So the practical thing here, guys — I would look at Tesla on the daily. If Tesla goes bull on the daily, potentially there's a bit of pricing in of this merger. Because thinking about Elon — for him to have the best opportunity to make the biggest impact, if you just have one thing, the focus is unified. When you have many things, it's split focus, split shareholder interest.
I see that many people in the Tesla community don't like SpaceX. It's like when a founder has two tokens. When your founder has one coin, everyone is aligned, everyone loves it. When you have two coins — should I buy this or that? There's discussion about which one is better. These guys try to FUD the other coin because they don't have it. And it's just weird. The community becomes a bit weird when you have two things that are publicly listed.
Now Elon has two things that are publicly listed and the community starts eating each other. Tesla guys say they're being scammed, that X.AI should have been in Tesla. SpaceX guys enjoy the moon. So I think there's quite a good chance — just not knowing anything in terms of insider or not insider, just looking at Elon and thinking how I would have done it — I would probably have rolled it all into one. All of the bag holders who have just one company, one ticker. Flow the liquidity into one single ticker. If you have two tickers, the pump is bad. And Elon — he's the best in the world at the pump. He's proven that.
The pump opportunity when he says there is a Mars colony, there is an interplanetary data space data center in space — obviously he probably wants that also, but it's so nice for the pump. Because how much is that worth? All other S&P 500 executives speak about, "Oh, we're going to grow ARR by onboarding more enterprise clients." They play in the sandbox. Elon versus other S&P 500 execs — it's kind of the same comparison. Yeah, they're going to onboard more clients, do this shuffling around of money. Okay, you have a bit more clients. Good for your basic SaaS. Even Salesforce, by the way — Salesforce is now bullish on the weekly. Keep an eye on it. But what does Salesforce do? They do a database for customers. It's very valuable, I'm not saying it's not — but just in comparison to Elon's stuff. Salesforce will not go to 10 trillion. This CRM will not go to 10 trillion.
By the way, the chart on Salesforce is very good. On the weekly, you see it's a new bull trend. They can easily go to all-time high. Just keep that in mind. But back to the discussion — why Elon is the best at the pump: the way he speaks, the way he draws the future, it invites big fat valuations. So when you have two tickers, it kind of works against that.
I think the merger is likely going to happen, and likely it's going to happen before the end of Trump's term. So it's one ticker, one pump, and one moon, and we go to the moon in a rocket. Fantastic.
If the merger happens, we mentioned the premium. When a merger happens, normally if you want to buy the whole company and take it out from the stock market, you have to offer more than the current price. So now the price is 341 today. If they are to take it from the stock market fully, they need full agreement of whoever the corporate governance is structured around — maybe it's the full board. But basically they need a bunch of people to agree to this. And the way to do it is to say, "Listen, the price now is 340. I give you 400 for your shares. So yeah, let's just roll it into SpaceX." That's where this discussion about a premium is coming into play.
Metaplanet, OpenAI, and Claude vs. ChatGPT
Metaplanet moved almost 4,000 Bitcoin, but they said they are not selling. There you go.
OpenAI — they are a bit of trouble in paradise. Many people leaving OpenAI. Executives leaving OpenAI. Sam Altman may now be a lone executive. Let's see what's going to happen. Which is interesting because my impression is that OpenAI is having a bit of a comeback. When I just see what people are discussing — I'm mainly into Claude now. I have things currently mainly in Claude. But just online, I chatted with Bulmania AI about it yesterday. ChatGPT has a bit of a revival on X in the discussion, because Claude — Claude is too vague. It's trying to be your teacher. It's a smug librarian. And so ChatGPT is now getting a lot of positive coverage. This wasn't at all like that just a year ago. A year ago everyone was moving from ChatGPT to Claude. So that's also when I moved. Now it's kind of reversing.
I've been using Claude to chat and discuss, and ChatGPT for coding tasks. The last versions are borderline insufferable. Switching back to ChatGPT — soul. The fact that ChatGPT has been better than Claude, yada yada, you can read more. Anthropic used to be unstoppable. Claude was the model. Now I can't use it more than 20 minutes without getting frustrated. ChatGPT 5.6 soul is still — let me know guys if you've used ChatGPT soul. I need to get back to ChatGPT and test it again. Maybe it's good now.
ChatGPT is better for people who want one tool for everything. Claude's safe AI approach feels paternalistic — exactly. You have a smug librarian who thinks she's your mother, who tells you what to think and what not to think. Maybe they've spent so much that everyone is leaving. They're like, "Holy crap, we have no money, Sam. What's happening?"
Something to keep an eye on. If OpenAI goes belly up, we're going to notice it in the stock trends. We need to be careful. Could be the collapse of a bubble. But again, who knows when it's going to happen. Maybe they survive three more years. S&P doubles in three. You understand. But something to keep an eye on.
Trezor Data Leak — Serious Security Warning
Oh guys, guys, guys — big news. Trezor hacked. So if you are in the US, UK, Sweden, Colombia, Brazil, Italy, or Portugal, and you bought a Trezor, your address is now publicly available somewhere — probably on the darknet somewhere. And yeah, this is the problem with hardware wallets.
What are people saying? Card users got rugged and decided to research multisig wallets, bought a Trezor only to have their data leaked. Exactly. Your home address got leaked after buying a Trezor wallet.
Guys, be ready. Be ready for phishing. Be ready for everything. Be ready for any kind of development of events. As a Trezor user with all my major crypto holdings on it, I almost had a heart attack. Whoever was responsible for designing the tweet this way should be fired immediately.
Some basic tips: always use an email alias via ProtonMail — that's good. You almost never need to give your full name on anything — that's true. Never use a single signer setup. Yeah. And lately with all of these different hacks, it's just better to have a good old-fashioned setup. You remember wallet.dat from like 2015 times when your Bitcoin wasn't wallet.dat? Now many people got wrecked losing their money, getting hacked. But it's a problem, guys. There's no perfect solution.
Ledger users first time — exactly. After five home invasions — exactly. So guys, you know, we're laughing but it's serious. It's very serious. It's super serious. So if you are in those countries, be prepared for any kind of development.
Let me tell you the countries yet again that have been disclosed. If you are in the US — oh man, it's many people. So what can happen? Let's seriously speak about what can happen. You may get letters home that look like legit Trezor letters — super nice quality, nice paper, nice packaging, really looks like it's official, but they ask you for your private key. You fill in your private key, you return it back to the mailman. Don't do that. Don't give your private key to the mailman.
Your full name, address, phone number, and email is leaked. Big problem. Use your brain a bit here. Maybe consult some security company about what to do. It's now 11,700 customers. Maybe install a camera. Maybe two cameras. Maybe install a bulletproof door. Maybe a panic button. Maybe a basement. A nuclear-proof basement. Or just move somewhere. I know it's not easy, but it's a problem we're dealing with — it's the state of affairs. No one said that crypto would be easy. It all started with "hey, let me buy some shitcoins." Now — bulletproof door. Yeah, it takes you to another level for sure.
Pro tips if you receive a letter by post claiming to be from a Bitcoin wallet supplier: put it in the bin. If you receive an email from a Bitcoin wallet supplier, don't click on anything. Delete it.
Tether Audit — Big News for the Bull Market
By the way, guys, this is big news. Massive news from Tether. Tether has passed an audit. So Tether is now fully audited. That's a big thing. Now some people say it's just one of the companies, not the main company — yada yada, you can research more. More or less they're fully audited. Which means for bull market — Valhalla, up only. Up only.
S&P 500 New Highs, Reddit Joins Index, Fitch Rating
S&P 500 new highs — we knew that. New highs, we knew that. Reddit shares jump 11% after they are going to be included in the S&P 500. Fitch has affirmed the US rating at A+. This is important when it comes to bonds. If this is a high rating, it means that the bond yields are going to be staying low or not pumping at least. If a downgrade happens, the yields are going to go up a lot. S&P is following this plan perfectly.
Now, let's see this chart someone posted. Normally we don't look at this. How many people liked it? 151 plebs. This is bad, guys. Don't try to predict this kind of top. You draw some pattern which doesn't even exist. To fill out a pattern like this is very bad practice. In trading, to fill out a pattern which is not there and think it's going to happen is one of the pleb noob mistakes, because a pattern doesn't exist until it exists. You cannot predict that it's going to be drawn.
Instead, it's more of a thing you can use while — let's say you're here — you need the pattern to be drawn for it to be valid. Otherwise, to start selling here — maybe it's correct, who the hell knows — but in most cases it's not correct. In most cases, bull trend is bull trend and then bear trend. Then we know. So don't follow these predictors in crypto, because most people don't have any trading experience really, especially in crypto. They misunderstand concepts.
For example, sometimes people say, "Hey Ivan, this looks like an inverse head and shoulders." But it's just like two out of a hundred candles that have been drawn. And then they draw like 90% of the pattern and say, "Hey, what do you think about this?" I'm like, "Bro, the chart says none of this. The chart gave you two candles. You drew the next 100 years." Okay, it doesn't work like that. Follow the damn trend. Follow the damn trend.
Memory Stocks, AI Fundamentals, and the Bull Case
Look here — 75% of S&P tech stocks are above their 200-week moving average. That's why when things are at the 200-week moving average, it's a nice discount, signaling the tech rally is gaining momentum.
What's causing the memory rally? Fundamentals and pumpamentals, but fundamentals as well. Look here — SanDisk, which has been mooning like hell in a bull trend — like 30x in the last year or so. SanDisk has 372% revenue growth with only a P/E ratio of nine. Micron has 300-and-something. So why are we reading this? Because if you read this text, you see that it means the rally can continue, that there is no AI bubble. You read other texts — for example, everyone is leaving ChatGPT, OpenAI is not sustainable, you may think there is a bubble. Yet again, we follow the trend. S&P bullish, NASDAQ bullish, everything bullish in the stock market. And this guy says fundamentals are good. They're good. Everything is pumping according to plan. And still it's kind of cheap — even with all of the pumps, there are ways to look at the stock market and still say that SanDisk and Micron are still cheap based on the P/E.
Analyst: Memory is the talk of the market today and I'm going to be breaking down why we're seeing these explosive moves in SanDisk and Micron. They're both very similar in valuation metrics and I believe these moves come back to fundamentals. The stocks are too cheap, the growth is too high. So what does that mean? Micron has a P/E ratio of around nine and a half and SanDisk has a P/E ratio of nine. These companies — Micron, for instance — their GAAP EPS was $25 a share. You multiply that by four because it's quarterly and you're getting an annualized rate of $100 a share. The price is around $950 today, so it's just too cheap. The earnings are growing at around 2,000% or something and the revenue growth is 342%. SanDisk likewise, earning around $44 a share, or $176 a year annualized, with a P/E ratio—
Ivan: You get the point. You get the point. Now the counterargument to this is that all of this revenue is coming from all of these hyperscalers, and they may stop investing if the AI bet doesn't pay off, and then everything is gone. Let's see — because OpenAI is doing all of these contracts. 70% of Microsoft's Azure AI contracts are with OpenAI. So obviously Microsoft is investing a lot, everyone is investing a lot, paying SanDisk, paying Micron. So for Micron and SanDisk it's fantastic. If OpenAI goes belly up — suddenly no more revenue. So that's the counterargument. But again, we are very humble and we say let the stock market trend tell us. And now it's bullish. So we don't worry too much. We're just bullish. Very, very high. We go very, very high.
Tom Lee's S&P 500 Target and the Bull Market Thesis
Tom Lee — Tom Lee and I, we are fully in agreement now. Before we were very critical because it was the beginning of the bear. He said that ETH was going to go to like 60K last December. We said it's full Fugazi, it's never going to happen. We were correct. But now that we are starting to be more bullish, Tom Lee and I — we're this close. We are brothers in arms. The bulls.
Tom Lee: We got a nice CPI report and in the backdrop of good earnings, stocks going up on good news — I think the rally is quite healthy and it's tracking to our view that we could get to 7,900–8,000 by the end of the month.
Interviewer: That's what your call was. Edward Denny says we're now tracking so well that we can get to 8,400 by the end of the year because of the earnings story that we keep talking about. Does that make sense to you?
Tom Lee: Yeah, I think that is sort of the underpinning of this, because 2027 earnings are probably around $410 right now. It was around $395 at the start of earning season and it's probably going to be—
Ivan: And by the way, guys — is it overheated? Obviously the stock market rally is crazy. It's crazy. Maybe — again, just follow the trend. The reason I keep repeating it is because every day someone asks, "But Ivan, what about — it's overheated. Oh, everyone's going to learn. It's going to burst. Everything is going to burst. Everyone who is greedy now is going to learn." But guys, with the Bulmania approach, everything is taken care of. Because if a brendan happens, we're out. The full approach with all my trading secrets is inside Bulmania. All of you who are in Bulmania, you know. If you know, you know. But even if something happens, you don't worry. It's part of the plan. We're not going to be here shocked that something bad happened. We know everything.
Also look here — a crash may mean that S&P goes to 6,000. From here, if you look at S&P — can it go to 6,000? Potentially it could. That's like a 20% drop from here. In S&P these things happen. But you see, we get a weekly bear signal already here. You understand? So it's not a problem for us. From here to the bear signal, it's just 7%.
Onchain Trading, Old Heads vs. New Traders
Next — listen to this.
Speaker: I don't agree with it, by the way. But I think the reason that this sentiment exists is because a lot of the old heads have been talking so much about onchain traders non-stop. Like, "Bro, these kids are just bundling. They're just dev traders. They're scammers. They're farming their followers." And it's not true. There are people onchain that are farming users for sure — the devs and bundlers that are doing a lot of that. But there are also really good onchain traders who have been printing over the past year. Like if you are not onchain trading, you missed a lot of the alpha and upside in crypto the past few years.
Ivan: True. True. Get onchain, guys. And this is the real call to action to get onchain. Not like Jesse said — "Can you, will you get—" This is the real get onchain.
Speaker: Especially the past cycle. And what Frank has been pushing back hard against is because he's the one who got a lot of the flack for—
Ivan: Anyway. So guys, onchain does that.
Meme Coins, Web3 Gaming, and the Metaverse Retrospective
Cash Cat is holding nicely — this is speaking about Robinhood. Fantastic. The number one meme on Robinhood. There we go.
I think this frog emoji is going to go pretty viral alongside Toad. Yeah, on Pump.fun people try to pump these emoji coins. I don't think it's new — I think we had already this emoji coin kind of pump last cycle. But yeah, that's that.
Web3 gaming — what's happening? Yakamon, no idea what the hell it is. Let me know if you know. Yakamon, Gigaverse — no idea. AXI, obviously we know. Sandbox — guys, I almost want to cry when I think about it. Oh my god. Decentraland and Sandbox — you know how many billions they raised? You know how much they were worth? Oh my god. And what did they do? A 3D world. No one cares. There's no one there. You know, it just tells you — during the metaverse hype, oh my god.
I'm also amazed and impressed by the business moves, so to speak. Oh my — you're now going to Decentraland — oh my god. I mean, I could make it in Claude Code in like one minute. Oh my god. So yeah, what the hell are they doing? Game jam? No one cares. No one cares.
Big shout out to Sandbox. Big shout out to Decentraland. Yeah, they saw Metaverse, they said max — let's max extract on this one. Fantastic. But you know, even Mark Zuckerberg fell into the metaverse Fugazi. He spent like 100 billion on the metaverse. No one is there. So yeah, I don't blame the capital allocators because for a moment everyone said that we're going to be in the metaverse. JP Morgan said there's going to be a three trillion metaverse — like three trillion like GDP in the metaverse. Oh my god. JP Morgan bets metaverse is a one trillion yearly opportunity — this is from 2022. First bank to — oh my god.
Yeah, you see, it's crazy. You just ride the trend. But you see how much money was made there. This is another thing — ride the trend, max extract from the trend. Is it a bubble? Who knows? Bubble, metaverse bubble, max max max extract, then bear — boop, you're out. That's it. That's how we do it. We're not too smart. If you're too smart, you miss everything.
It's like this professor we listened to. You remember last week there was a British professor who said that he did not buy Bitcoin at $1 because he was concerned with the energy use or something else dumb like that. He listened too much to mainstream media that told him climate is changing or something. And then he said yeah, at $1 he could have bought Bitcoin. He did not. He was concerned about the energy. What? How? Like it's crazy, man. It's crazy.
Robinhood Chain TVL and Pattern Trading Mistakes
Robinhood Chain is nearing 1 million in TVL with units of liquidity. So yeah, Robinhood — fantastic. A lot of TVL. For trading, very, very nice.
Look here — here's another pleb thing that many people are going to lose money on. They compare charts and say, "Now the stock market is similar to the dot-com bubble." Again, it could be. But why do you act on it? Act on it when there is a bear trend. If you look at the dot-com bubble and compare — this is NASDAQ versus M2 — now it's higher than in the dot-com bubble. And listen, maybe it's going to burst. Who knows? We're going to know when it's ban. Michael Burry is predicting 37 out of the last three crashes.
Michael Burry's Circular AI Financing Argument
And by the way, Michael Burry — during the last days and weeks, he's super bear. Like I've never seen Michael Burry this bearish. He's always bearish. I've barely seen him bullish since the GFC, ever since 2008.
Michael Burry — his highest reach posts this week are all on the same theme. This one is interesting. This is the latest circle of financing map from today's Bloomberg article. There is no mystery why the revenue numbers are so good even as losses expand. So basically he's saying that everything that has happened here with the earnings — the reason why the stock market pumps is because of earnings. Okay. And he's saying that the earnings are — wait, let me see.
He's saying: coming back to the stock market, why is the stock market pumping now? Because earnings were good. But why were earnings good? Because they shuffle the money around. He says they just shuffle the money. You get earnings, you give me the same — you have earnings from me, I pay you, or I agree to pay in the future but you book it as earnings already. Good. But you pay me back the same money. So I have earnings, you have earnings. And this guy also has earnings because we do the same with him. And we all do the same thing. We just slosh it around. So everyone has earnings and everyone has a good P/E ratio — very low — so we can pump more. That's what he's saying. Basically, even as losses expand, free cash flow turns negative and off-balance sheet leverage explodes.
You see here — Microsoft invests in OpenAI, and they buy back from Microsoft. Then they invest in Nvidia, and Nvidia also invests back in OpenAI. To understand all of this — it's too much. So we don't even try. We just follow the trend. Cheap purchases. You see here — infrastructure purchases and rentals, a lot of back and forth. Morgan Stanley analysts track the billions going around. Yeah, you see it. It could be. It could.
So I'm not saying that Michael Burry is wrong. It's just that you miss the pump if you are too worried too early. Because Michael Burry — he's been posting so much about bearishness for 10 plus years. At some point he's going to be right again. His highest reach post this week: "I've spent the last week and a half going through all of these filings post-earnings and I'm looking forward to tearing apart more 10-Qs from CoreWeave." Okay.
The Curse of Cassandra — Michael Burry's Self-Description
He's calling himself Cassandra. Why is he Cassandra? Someone knows. Why is he Cassandra?
Guys, okay — the curse of Cassandra means having the ability to see future disaster clearly while being entirely unable to convince others. Oh guys, guys. I had the same curse back in October when we said on October 8th, time to be careful, time to be risk off, time to sound the alarm. I also had this Cassandra. I had the exact one.
So Cassandra was a princess of Troy and the daughter of King Priam. The god Apollo loved her and gave her the gift of prophecy. When Cassandra rejected him, Apollo could not take back a divine gift. So he added a condition — no one would ever believe her. She foresaw the Trojan War and warned her people about the Trojan Horse, but they dismissed her as mad.
Okay. Michael Burry — you need to have some humility. Okay, I understand you have a Hollywood movie. You had a success there. But to insert yourself into Greek mythology in this fashion — I mean, I like the self-confidence. I like that. But we're too humble for that. We're too humble. Although we also had a similar Cassandra moment back in October.
Now that we understand Cassandra — thanks guys. No wonder time flies. We go on such big tangents. But Cassandra fully figured out — that was good insight from you guys. We're all more educated.
So he's saying — coming back to the stock market — why is the stock market pumping now? Because earnings were good. But why were earnings good? Because they shuffle the money around. Everyone has earnings, everyone has a good P/E ratio, we can pump more. And also, the Bank of International Settlements — who is the head of BIS? Is it still that massive guy or did they replace him? Agustín — you guys remember? For how long can you be in charge of BIS? Because you remember Agustín — he was like the final boss of crypto. Guzman says he was replaced. The BIS report released in late July is a sober look at this.
So guys, as soon as there is a bear trend, the AI bubble may be upon us. Until then, we are bullish. We don't think too much. We're just following the trend. As a humble, humble pleb — humble, humble, honest player — we just follow the damn trend. That's how you make money in the market. Not by being too smart. Not by predicting a million crashes out of the last two crashes. Crashes will always happen at some point. The point is not to over-predict them. The point is to act when they happen.
Bulmania Member Testimonial — Ivet's Story
We're ending the stream with this beautiful story from our Bulmania member Ivet.
Ivet: Hello everyone, my name is Ivet. I'm 60 years old and retired. I previously worked for the Estée Lauder Corporation for about 25 years, and afterwards I became a health coach, and then since 2020 I became a health freedom activist, bringing doctors from around the country together to talk about what was going on in our country and in our world.
I began accumulating Bitcoin and altcoins in 2017. And I will be the first one to admit — I was a hodler without a real strategy. I followed social media noise. I listened to my son. My husband was in the background telling me to take my profits and I was thinking I was going to hold on to it and the coin was going to go up. I really didn't do stocks. I really just did crypto.
And last year, in 2025, I had asked a friend — where are you getting your information on social media regarding crypto? And he mentioned Bulmania. So I started watching Ivan's videos and then the proverbial light bulb went on. Everything started making sense to me. I decided to invest in a learning system and getting properly educated on how to trade. It took me a few months — I'm not going to lie — to retrain my brain to have the approach and basically to approach crypto differently. Especially during a bear market, which we've been in since October. However, the results have been very positive.
I sold some of my previous holdings and used those funds to buy more Bitcoin at the 200-week moving average. As you have heard Ivan talk about, this is the buy zone. Some of those earlier coins that I had sold dropped another 50%. So I took those — some that I made profit on, some I lost — but I reinvested them in Bitcoin. And then I have my dry powder that I'm going to deploy when we start going into the bull trend.
Since joining Bulmania, I've also made some profitable trades, including — I made $5,000 to $10,000, I don't know the exact number — with Hype and with Zcash over the last few months, going in and out of some trades, putting in my stop-loss, following the mechanical rules.
And one of the biggest surprises to me — that Ivan teaches and that he started teaching — was the 360, meaning that he's looking at ETFs and stocks. He added that to the money line and the money scanner. That was a broader perspective that helped me to think more strategically about my overall financial picture as well.
So over the past eight months it has been a win-win. I've gained a structured system. I've learned how to navigate crypto, especially when it comes to altcoins. And if you're like I was — without a system and lacking discipline — I would say I highly, highly recommend joining Bulmania. Have a great day.