Bitcoin and altcoin market analysis with Ivan on Tech, focusing on altcoin season rotation strategy
Ivan on Tech delivers a solo market update on Bitcoin, altcoins, and the importance of rotation strategy during the current bull cycle.
Summary
Bitcoin at $85K represents a "calm before the storm" moment, according to Ivan on Tech, who argues, with the real opportunity lying in altcoin rotation rather than Bitcoin itself. He contends that many investors will repeat the mistakes of the last cycle by holding underperforming coins — citing Polkadot and ADA as examples of assets that failed to reach all-time highs — while missing the actual gains happening elsewhere. He reviews several coins now entering bull trends, including ADA, XRP, NEAR, Bittensor (TAO), and Hyperliquid, and argues that mechanical trend-following rules — rather than fundamental reasoning or news — are the correct framework for navigating the cycle. The update also notes bullish macro conditions, with NASDAQ hitting record highs and the S&P approaching all-time highs, and briefly touches on the bond market dynamic, pharma stocks, and the current administration's pro-crypto regulatory stance.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin at $85K: The Calm Before the Storm
Ivan: Bitcoin is currently at $85K, and we are now in the calm before the storm. It is the calm before the storm for Bitcoin — but most importantly, for altcoins. Some altcoins have been bullish for a few weeks. Solana, for example — we've been riding Solana, very nice. ETH — we've been riding ETH, very nice. But all of this is pointing to the fact that we're just in the early, early stages of the bull market, and you need to be prepared for rotations.
There's always going to be a rotation, and it's important to keep an eye on your assets. If you look at the previous bull market, some people got absolutely rug-pulled out of the bull market because they held, for example, Polkadot. Polkadot did not go anywhere in the last bull market. It pumped a bit, and then it deflated — very quickly — and went to new lows. So if you look at the chart, you can see very clearly that if it is a bull market, you're never guaranteed that your exact coin is going to go anywhere. Polkadot started to pump, rolled over, and deflated. Meanwhile, you had the Dog With Hat, you had all kinds of other coins going to super highs, going from zero to five billion in market cap, and all kinds of other pumps happened.
ADA had a very similar situation. If you look at what happened during the last bull market, it did pump a bit, did not get to all-time high. By the way, ADA — big shout out — because right now, literally as we're speaking, it did go bull trend. We covered it on Twitter. But we discussed yesterday that ADA is now in a bull trend for the first time in a very long time. So we are now bullish ADA, but we have to monitor these things so that we're not in assets that are dead horses. We don't want a limp duck. We want to be in assets that are strong and powerful, and we don't want to be in this mindset of a loser.
Last Cycle's Mistakes: Holding the Wrong Coins
Many people last cycle got into this mindset of a big fat loser because they were in coins that did not do well. They told me there was no altcoin season. Some people told me, "Ivan, there was no altcoin season," because they round-tripped their whole bag. And they thought the market was just beginning. They held Polkadot. They held ADA. They thought, "Okay, the market is just early — that's why Polkadot did not pump." They thought they were too early. Too early — like always, they are too early to everything.
When the bull market ended, they said there was no altcoin season — despite many altcoins doing fantastically well. The party happened. You missed it. It doesn't mean the party did not happen because you missed it. You understand?
The Altcoin Season Engine
So all in all, we are preparing now in Bulmania all our members to think in terms of the altcoin season. We're formulating our altcoin season engine. It's so important now in the coming weeks to get your altcoin strategy right, because your sure thing likely is not going to come back. Many people are going to be holding another Polkadot.
What's also important here is the rotations within a bull cycle. You always have rotation — rotation from the big caps. The big cap opportunity was mainly four months ago, when Solana flipped bullish, when ETH flipped bullish. That was the biggest opportunity. Being in big caps is still good because they're still early in the bull trends, but if you look just a month ahead, six weeks ahead, that opportunity is going to be sailing away, and the opportunity is going to be more towards different coins — maybe AI, maybe RWA. Who the hell knows? We're going to be monitoring it in real time, because it's impossible to say beforehand. We have to see what's going to happen.
If your performance is like 50% in a bull market — and many altcoins went down 90% — if your coin goes from $10 to $1 and then goes up 50%, you end up with $1.50. It's very bad. For example, in the model portfolios we have in Bulmania, the average gain in September was 30%. Some people say, "Oh, I had such a great bull market, I'm up 50%." That's actually very, very bad.
So in Bulmania, we'll be speaking about the altcoin engine. It's very important that you have your altcoin engine in place. In the bull market, it is all about the altcoin. Bitcoin is not going to make you rich. Bitcoin is a stay-rich vehicle. Bitcoin is maybe going to go to 200K. If Bitcoin goes to 200K, it's not going to do anything for you if you don't have that much capital. But if the small caps start mooning — if you have the coins from the last cycle that are still strong, that still have something going for them — if they go to all-time high, obviously that would be a big, big difference.
ADA: Bull Trend and All-Time High Potential?
Now people are asking me: Ivan, do you think ADA is going to go to all-time high now that it is in a bull trend? Let's check it. Do you hold ADA? Do you think it's going to go to all-time high? Let me know in the comment section.
You see, it's down quite a lot from the 2025 high. Just to get back to the 2025 high is a 379% move. But to go to the all-time high — where Cardano smart contracts launched, because they never recovered since the smart contract launch — that's like 10x. Literally 10x to the high. So on a risk/reward basis, currently I think ADA looks interesting. There are still not too many smaller coins that have launched and run faster, but if we see that Cardano is the limp duck, the slow horse, we're going to dump the crap out of it.
The thing is, when something is down so much like Cardano, we don't even have to go to all-time high to make money. If it just goes to this resistance, it's already 100%. So don't think in terms of this being your only thing that's going to take you to new highs. In reality, most coins will not go to new highs. So whatever you hold now, be prepared to be flexible, be prepared to rotate.
Current Bull Trend Coins: SUPER, Hyperliquid, Lido
Currently, Solana, Bitcoin, and BNB have just gone bull. But in a month, people are going to be asking, "Ivan, what now?" And then rotation is going to be important.
If you look at some other coins that are recently bullish — SUPER is bullish now since late September. This one has almost a 10x to all-time high. When we discussed it last Thursday, it was at $0.20. Now it's at $0.23. At that point it was basically a 10x. Now it's a bit less than a 10x, but still kind of a 10x to the highs.
As we see more coins go bull in real time, we need to adapt. You need the altcoin engine — the altcoin season engine, as we call it. It's also nice because then you yourself, in real time, can see what's flipping bullish, what's flipping bearish. Monitoring your portfolio in real time is also important because some coins did go bear trend. Lido, for example, did go bear trend. In Bulmania, I said I'm moving from Lido to Hyperliquid because it's the same use case. Same use case means — what's the point of having higher risk? Lido is now in a worse trend. Just as an example, in real time it's important to know what's happening. If you have two coins doing the same thing, two coins in the same ecosystem, and one just turned bear trend for whatever reason while another one continues the bull trend — what's the point of being in the bearish one?
Personally, I've shifted from Lido to Hyperliquid because Hyperliquid is literally going to new highs. Every day there is a new high. Hyperliquid is going to go to a new all-time high any second, any day. It's looking so, so strong.
Macro Context: Stock Market, NASDAQ, and Risk-On
The reason why we're speaking about altcoins and why we are heavily risk-on is because of the stock market. This thing wants to rip. The way it looks right now, it wouldn't surprise me if we get a big fat candle — because you see here it was a high, then consolidation, and then bam, a big fat candle. Now here it was a high, a bit of consolidation. Wouldn't surprise me if we get another candle.
Of course, when the stock market is doing well, it's easier for crypto to do well. It's easier for everything else to do well when the stock market is doing well. So for us, it's just another signal in our risk management system. If the stock market indices — such as the S&P, such as NASDAQ — are bullish, we're also mega bullish.
By the way, NASDAQ went to its highest close ever last week. This week it continues higher. NASDAQ: fantastic, fantastic, fantastic. So all in all, guys, be prepared for altcoin season. With stock markets looking like this, it is the opportunity of a lifetime.
Weekly Events: FOMC, SEC ETFs, and Regulatory News
Looking at this week, we have some important things. Tomorrow is Wednesday, and we will have the FOMC meeting minutes released. Whenever this news happens, it doesn't affect us in any way long-term, but short-term there's a bit of volatility when FOMC comes.
The SEC is highlighting new ETFs for Bitcoin and ETH with leverage. The US Treasury is quietly withdrawing two major surveillance proposals that would have forced ID checks on self-custody wallets and cracked down on mixers. This is good. The current administration is very pro-crypto. All of these things — more surveillance, more ID, more regulation — they've removed. We have less regulation, we have less ID checks. As long as we have Trump, as long as we have the current administration, crypto is protected. What happens after Trump? What happens even after the midterms? Who the hell knows? We're going to find it out in real time.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows and Price Outlook
Looking at Bitcoin ETFs, the inflows continue — $241 million last week. Very high inflow. Still, the price is very calm. The chance of Bitcoin going to $90K in October, according to Polymarket, is currently 60%. So overall, people are bullish. Obviously there can be pullbacks. You know that if you watch this channel — we're ready for pullbacks. Why? Because we have clear direction, clear rules, and a clear strategy. Pullbacks are part of the strategy. We know when it's time to be bearish. It's not time to be bearish. It's time to be bullish.
XRP: Bull Trend, RWA Growth, and Monica Long's Response
Looking at XRP — it is in a bull trend, and there are quite a few news items. You have a treasury SPARK surging nearly 300%. Armada Acquisition is going to be merged with XRP treasury firm EverNorth, and they're going to be buying XRP — kind of like Michael Saylor for XRP. That's number one.
Number two, Morgan Stanley holds almost a billion dollars' worth of Bitcoin in their ETF — so it's assets under management.
Another thing with XRP: XRP president Monica Long has shut down the claim that nothing is happening on the XRP ledger. She's addressing critics who have been calling XRP vaporware. To be fair, I don't know anyone who's using XRP, but listen — it's bull trend, we're bullish. But according to this lady, there's a lot of stuff going on. There's a growing ecosystem spanning DeFi, wallets, tokenisation, banking, and real-world assets. She pointed to names including First Ledger, Doppler Finance, Zmen, Flare, Brazab Bank, Just Token, Aviva Investors, and DVA.
Monica Long: "People saying there's nothing going on in XRP ledger — First Ledger, Doppler Finance, Zmen, Flare, Brazab Bank, Just Token, I can keep going. Aviva Investors, DVA. And the growth — we've seen from $100 million worth of real-world assets on the ledger in January of 2025 to now $2.5 billion. And if you look at the RWA charts, it's considered the number four chain for RWAs. The proof is in the pudding."
Ivan: Let's check DeFi Llama. Let's keep it simple — XRP, what's happening? Looking at Ripple's RWA data, the number is in line with what she's saying. In 2025, it grew from $1.3 billion to $2.4 billion. Yeah, the chart is good. You want the chart looking like this. So in 2025 it was still arguably vaporware, and now maybe you can say it's not vaporware anymore. They have clearly changed since 2025. They have a stablecoin — RLUSD — that accounts for the bulk of the TVL, which corresponds to what she said.
But guys, in the bull market, altcoins are just meme coins in a sense. XRP is in a bull trend. No matter what you think about whether it's legitimate or not, it is bull trend. It just got above all of this resistance. It spent quite some time in this area, and now it is leaving the area. The next station for XRP is the resistance approximately 20% higher. Of course, you can buy spot, you can buy perps, you can use leverage — whatever fits your risk profile. Either 23% higher to the next resistance, or 141% to the highs. No need to discriminate XRP in any way. ADA, XRP — they're all bullish now. We don't discriminate. We love them.
ALGOX, NEAR, Pudgy Penguins, TAO, and Solana vs ETH
For example, another one — ALGOX. From a chart perspective, it's not bad. It got into bull trend, got above all of this resistance, and now it's testing the next resistance. The next big stop is going to be probably this cluster right here — approximately 50% higher. And then from there, maybe it goes to all-time high. Let's see. By the way, ALGOX is also one of these coins that never went to all-time high in the last cycle. It created a high early on in the cycle and never went higher. This is why, when we speak about rotation, you need to ensure you rotate properly. You need to know what's happening, because all charts now look kind of similar — they've all just entered bull trend — but in a few weeks you're going to see that the results start to deviate.
You see it already now. Lido went bear trend. Maybe Lido will continue pumping, but in terms of risk/reward, why is it better to have Lido than Hyperliquid? That's an example where I see something go bear trend and I don't take any chances. In the bull market, if I see bear trend, we're going to be relocating. That's what we did yesterday. Money shifted towards bullish things, towards Hyperliquid. Just one example. And I'm doing it in real time, all the time.
This is the kind of thing you need to be thinking about, because this is what the altcoin season engine is all about. You need to ensure that you rotate properly, you don't miss key rotations, you don't miss the gains, and you don't become this sad, disgruntled investor that says there was no altcoin season.
Now, for NEAR — it is in a bull trend since the beginning of September. It's up 117%. Right now it looks good. That's the only thing we care about. Can it stall out? Can anything happen? Maybe the team starts selling, maybe market makers start selling. I don't know the future of NEAR, but right now it is looking good, and that's the only thing we care about. Keep an eye on new rotations, because should the daily trend go into bear, that's one of the warning signs. Should the weekly trend go into bear, it's serious. For now, it looks good. We're bullish NEAR.
How about Pudgy Penguins? Pudgy is in a bull trend on this exchange. Let's check overall. It seems it went bull trend across the major pairs. Yeah, bull trend. It would be amazing if it had strength here, but it's 7% down from the bull trend flip. Sometimes that happens. When something flips bullish and it's right on the border, you can have a bit of sideways. TAO did the same thing — right on the border, then dumped, did all kinds of sideways stuff. Now TAO is breaking out hopefully, and the first resistance is approximately 50% higher, just to get above the prior high. Pudgy is technically bull trend, but why so weak? Why close right on the dollar? It's the beginning of the bull market, so time to be bullish, not bearish. To the 2025 high it's a 10x, and the use case with AI gives it something to work with.
Could Solana flip ETH this cycle? There is no way to reason about it logically, because markets are illogical. Technically, if you look at the metrics, Solana is better on almost all metrics. But there are some things you cannot measure — for example, OGs still have a lot in ETH, and there's still a lot of demand from the OG side of ETH, even though users are lower compared to Solana, trading volume is lower, and so on.
Let's actually check the facts. In terms of users, Solana is way ahead. In terms of volume — 24-hour volume on Solana is $3 billion, on ETH it's not even $1 billion. Now it's mainly altcoins. If you look at DeFi stuff, DeFi TVL is higher on ETH. So there are many different ways to compare. But if you look at the valuation — Solana at $70 billion and ETH at $330 billion — the gap is crazy big. That's an opportunity for Solana, of course.
At the same time, going through the cycles, I've learned it's not smart to reason like this — "oh, it should flip this or it should flip that." Sometimes it doesn't flip even though it doesn't make sense. Then what's the reason? Don't worry. You can just look at the Solana/ETH ratio. If you want to ensure you're in the fastest horse, look at Solana versus ETH. Right now, Solana is entering a new bull trend versus ETH. In the bear market, Solana was weaker than ETH. In the last bull, Solana obliterated ETH. You can see it clearly — Solana fully ate ETH alive. But in the bear, vice versa.
So don't worry too much about whether it should outperform or not. Instead, look at the current trend. Currently, Solana versus ETH is entering a new bull trend. It could have a nice run up to the 2025 highs. In a bull market, Solana is normally stronger. So if you have ETH, check the Solana/ETH ratio. If it's in bull trend, you want to be in Solana. If it's in bear trend and it's a bear market, you want to be in the dollar, not in ETH.
There is undeniably an OG aura around ETH that gives it a big premium. OGs like ETH. It's still like the Bitcoin of smart contract platforms. Can you quantify it? Not really. You just see it in the price and the market cap — that's how you quantify it. There's a premium because people trust ETH. And yeah, that's an opportunity for Solana, because if you're bullish on Solana, the speculation is that with time that premium is going to go away. You should only take that bet if Solana is in bull trend versus ETH — like now. That's where the bet makes sense.
Bond Market Dynamics and the AI Trade
There's a bit of discussion about why bonds go down while the stock market goes up. How can it be? But it's clear — people are selling bonds and buying the stock market. They want to be part of AI. They want to be part of the tech revolution.
Normally, when bonds are going down, money goes from the stock market into bonds. When bonds dump, money normally rotates from stocks into bonds. Why? Because when bonds go down, their yield is higher. So instead of getting a 2% yield, you can get a 5% yield, because yield increases when the price of the bond goes down. So normally there's an equilibrium. If bonds dump too much, money from the stock market pumps them back up, because some money is always interested in the risk-free rate, the risk-free yield from the US government.
In this case, it's not happening. The stock market investors don't care that you get yield in bonds, which is now quite high. This is what everyone is worried about — why is no one buying? Yield is so high. Why is no one buying and pushing it down? Because people want to be in AI. They want to be part of the revolution.
Is it a bubble? Don't think about it. Don't even think about it. The way to think about the bubble is: if it goes to bear trend, then it's a bubble. Now it's bull trend. People have been discussing the bubble all of 2026 and before — everywhere, AI was a bubble — and the bubble got bigger. Maybe it's going to be a bubble. I don't know. We're going to get the memo. If we go below the trend line, it's going to be bear trend. Then I will tell you there's a bubble. Right now, there's no bubble. I don't think about the bubble. I think about the upside.
A bubble can happen and then it dumps — and then maybe it dumps to a higher level than when it started. Let's say there is a bubble. Okay, the stock market dumps and we can dump quite a lot. But we're going to know it. In the first weeks, we're going to know it because it's going to go to bear trend.
Isn't it nice to have mechanical rules? Isn't it nice to not have to worry about stuff like this? Because most people — what do they do? They open YouTube and search "stock market collapse 2026." I'm telling you that because I did that in my early days in the markets. I was like, "Okay, let me research." And how am I going to research? I'm going to search on YouTube. Stock market crash 2026. Of course, there were a million videos about that. Stock market is going to crash in 2012. Many, many videos. There was endless clickbait. "Stock market gonna crash." "Stock market crash this year." "Stock crash in 90 days." It's so dumb. Don't worry about stock market crash when we are in bull trend. No one knows what's going to happen.
Like in The Wolf of Wall Street — Matthew McConaughey's character says, you know, no one knows what's going to happen, if it's going to go up or in freaking circles. But if it's bad, it's likely to go down. That's the only thing we know. I don't know what the stock is going to do. It can go up, it can go down, it can go in circles. If it's bull trend, it's likely going to pump. If it's bear trend, it's likely going to dump. Keep it simple. Keep it so, so simple. It's the simplest thing ever.
So S&P is bullish, just away from record highs. NASDAQ is at record highs already. That's exactly how we like it.
Pharma Stocks and Monitoring for Potential Plague Concerns
There's some news about a plague in Russia. I'm not worrying too much about it. There's some lady that sadly passed away. Is there going to be another COVID? Who the hell knows? But let me just check the Moderna stock.
Okay, guys — is there some kind of plague? I don't know. But someone is buying this like there's no tomorrow. Someone bought here like there's no tomorrow, and also here. And this thing is bullish. What can I tell you? This thing is bullish. So whether the plague is real or not, let's discuss it another day. But keep an eye on Moderna, because when charts move, that's a signal. When I see it going to a new high, it's a bit of a signal, because someone put their money on the line. Mainstream media writing about a plague — they have zero skin in the game, they want clicks, they're clickbait. But when a chart is pumping, I do pay attention a bit, because someone put their money there.
Look at Pfizer — not too big of a pump, but it's going to open a bit higher. Keep an eye on Moderna and Pfizer. Pfizer is bullish on the daily. Moderna — super bullish. Someone knew something here. Or did they have some announcements? I think here they had some announcements. Did someone cure some kind of cancer? Let me see.
Exactly — Melanoma. That was it. That was this big pump. And here the small pump — they had some announcement also. So we're monitoring it, of course, because it is bull trend. But if it continues, there is just some concern about some kind of plague or perceived plague. So then you can take the news a bit more seriously.
Q&A: NEAR, Pudgy Penguins, Solana vs ETH, and Portfolio Questions
On NEAR: Is NEAR the play of this cycle right now? NEAR is looking very good. Don't think in terms of "is it the play of the cycle or not" — think about right now. Right now, NEAR is looking very good. It is in a bull trend since the beginning of September. It's up 117%. Right now it looks good, and that's the only thing we care about. If it's going to be good in the future — no one knows. They can stall out. Anything can happen. Maybe the team starts selling. I don't know the future of NEAR, but right now it is looking good.
On Pudgy Penguins: Pudgy is technically bull trend, but it's right on the border, which means there's a higher risk of going sideways for a while until the next leg up. TAO did the same thing — right on the border, then dumped and went sideways. Now TAO is breaking out hopefully, and the first resistance is approximately 50% higher. Pudgy — technically bullish, but why so weak? It's the beginning of the bull market, so time to be bullish, not bearish. To the 2025 high it's approximately a 10x.
On whether Solana can flip ETH: There is no way to reason about it logically because markets are illogical. Technically, Solana is better on almost all metrics. But there's something unmeasurable — the OG aura around ETH. OGs like ETH. It's still like the Bitcoin of smart contract platforms. You can't quantify it, but you see it in the price and market cap. That premium exists because people trust ETH. That's an opportunity for Solana — the speculation is that with time that premium is going to go away. You should only take that bet if Solana is in bull trend versus ETH — like now.
On holding $10K in XRP: It's hard to say because I'm not you. I don't know your situation. If $10K is your whole portfolio, obviously it's different than if it's a minor position. If $10K is a small part of your overall portfolio, XRP is in a bull trend, you can ride the bull trend, and if it goes bear trend, you exit. It's impossible to answer without knowing the size of your overall portfolio. If you ask Bill Gates what he'd do with $10K in XRP, he'd think about it for 0.001 seconds. If you ask someone living paycheck to paycheck, they'd think very hard. It's different for everyone. The system will help you understand what to do based on your own goals.