Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's price action near $64,000 and covers crypto industry news
Ivan on Tech delivers a live stream covering Bitcoin's technical position, Robinhood vs. Coinbase, EU chat control legislation, AI investment concerns, and various crypto industry developments.
Summary
Bitcoin is trading above $64,000 near the 200-week moving average as noting it is trading near the 200-week moving average and approaching a key resistance level around $65,000–$66,000. He argues the bottom may be forming but cautions that a weekly candle close above the yellow resistance line is needed to confirm a trend reversal, with Q4 still the more likely bottom timeframe. He covers Robinhood's rise against Coinbase in the onchain space, the EU's passage of chat control legislation during the World Cup, Ben Bernanke joining Anthropic's governance board amid AI investment concerns — which Ivan speculatively frames as a bridge between monetary policy and AI risk — and the political risk to crypto from Democrats leveraging Trump's memecoin profits as a campaign issue. Ivan also provides an extended rebuttal to JP Morgan's claim that private blockchains pose the biggest risk to Bitcoin, arguing that private chains cannot replicate Bitcoin's self-custody, neutrality, and freedom from KYC friction. Additionally, he discusses Alex Karp's criticism of EU regulators for ignoring US tech expertise on AI policy.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Above $64,000 and the 200-Week Moving Average
Ivan on Tech: Oh yes, oh yes. Guys, welcome to another episode. As you can see right now, Bitcoin is doing something very interesting. We are above 64. It is a big number for Bitcoin. Why? Because this is the round number above the 200-week moving average, which is the white line. And if we can hold 64, and then especially if we can get above this $65,000–$66,000 level — basically this yellow line right here, which was support in the past — then we broke support to the downside, then we retested it. You see here now as resistance, this green candle right here back in June, and then we got rejected from it. And so if we now can muster the strength to go above it yet again, and let's say we close a candle at $67 — a weekly candle at $67, we close a weekly candle at $68 — the likelihood of the bottom being in is rising a lot. And now we're still in the buy zone. We're still in the green green buy zone, which is fantastic.
Until we go above the yellow line and start closing above the yellow line, the likelihood is still that we get rejected further down. But we're so far into the bear that I don't want to be mega bear here, because it's like the end of the bear. The time to be mega bear was in October, Q4. Now it's time to see the bright side of things — the bright side of life, bright side of the market, bright side of Bitcoin. Because most people currently are either mega wrecked, they have no money, or if they have money — let's say high net worth individuals, let's say even retail — if they have money, if they've been trading AI stocks, they're not really paying attention to Bitcoin, which means that we have such good opportunities. We have such good opportunities in crypto, in Bitcoin, in altcoins, in this whole industry. It's so cheap, man. It's so cheap.
And so as soon as we see the daily flips happen, the weekly flips happen — especially for altcoins, we need the weekly flip — it's going to be big, big signals. For now though, we are starting to see the fresh shoots of bullishness. You go into a forest, it's winter, but there is a fresh shoot. You understand? It's a green small shoot. Maybe some kind of flower is going to grow. It's the same here, but it's still below this yellow line. We're still way below the bull flip at 81. And the bull flip on the weekly is going to come down quite quickly here into the 70s. So we still need to be protecting capital, but we see things from the bright side. That's very, very important — to see life from the bright side.
EU Chat Control Passes During World Cup Distraction
Also, you know that I've been speaking about how they're going to use the World Cup to do crazy stuff. The World Cup — I mean, it's fun, it's fun to watch. We are also going to be watching the Norway match. It's good. But at the same time, we are seeing how they literally use it in order to push through legislation while the public is distracted. While people are watching other people kick a ball, the EU just passed chat control. So now all your messages, if you are in the EU, are going to be read by big tech. This is chat control 1.0. There is going to be chat control 2.0, which is now way easier to pass because chat control 1.0 has passed. It was yesterday. While people are on summer vacation, swimming, watching football, watching guys kick a ball, fully distracted.
There has to be some research done, by the way, on how many laws get passed during the World Cup. I think they really use this time to pass a lot. I haven't done the research myself, but I'll check with AI later on. Maybe you guys can do the same, because for politicians, the World Cup is the best. You basically have free hands — a free-for-all. You can do what you want. No one's going to care. The media is not going to care. They write about who kicked the ball. It's bread and circus. It's the finest, finest bread and circus.
So they passed chat control. All messages are going to be read by big tech. Chat control 1.0 does not allow the government to read directly, but you understand it's the next step. They take it one step at a time. They boil the frog alive. It's textbook. Okay. So we're going to be discussing that. We're going to be discussing everything, because we have a lot to discuss today.
Robinhood vs. Coinbase: The Battle for Onchain Dominance
Now guys, moving on. We have to discuss what's happening now in the trenches, because while Bitcoin is a bit down, a bit up, it's around the 200-week moving average, it is pushing higher. Should we go above that yellow line we discussed, it is good progress. It's amazing progress. Maybe the bottom is in now. Any day the bottom could be in. Even though the highest likelihood is still further down, I'm not betting the house on further down. It's more that we could see a bottom today, tomorrow, or in Q4. Q4 is still more likely. But you understand, this is the time to be DCAing, to be bidding, and to be using the chains.
For example, we've been saying that using Robinhood now makes sense. Even though it is a corporate chain, long-term I'm not a believer in Robinhood chain, but now that people are seeing this as an opportunity to be early, to trade all of this stuff — you try it out, you see how it works. You don't have to trade if you don't want to. But the fact that they are embracing memes and they are embracing the culture is very, very good. It's very positive. We may see some kind of meme season on Robinhood continue. You have to be super careful — these things go up and down a lot. These meme coins can go to zero quite fast. But what is interesting is that they are playing it in a way better way than Coinbase. Way, way better than Coinbase.
Let me play you this analysis from the Anam podcast, where they discussed Robinhood versus Coinbase, because Coinbase is in big, big trouble. They may lose both their decentralized exchange business and their onchain business to Robinhood. Listen to this.
Guest (Anam Podcast): Coinbase has been in crypto forever. Obviously they're the crypto-native company. But I think the reason that some of the timeline doesn't mess with Coinbase as much is because they're not as close to the culture as they should be with crypto. People see them as too corporate. And if you're not supportive of what people actually want to do onchain in crypto, then people aren't going to mess with you in that way. And that's why when Vlad was like, "I'm not only bullish on RWA, I'm bullish on memes too," everybody was like, "Yo, this dude's a goat." Because that's what people were trading. Memecoins are part of the culture in crypto. It's something that's never really going to go away. But if you're not supportive of everything that's happening on your chain and you kind of just pick and choose what you want to direct attention to —
Ivan on Tech: Or worse — like Jesse has been doing on Base, pushing some kind of thing where you tokenize your tweet, you tokenize your picture or whatever they were pushing — which no one really cares about. It's a small group of people that care about Zora. It's not so sustainable. You have to just lean into what the average player wants, and they want the meme. Just like they want bread and circus in football, they need the meme. The pleb is here for the meme. And listen, we're all plebs. We love it. We love it. It's fantastic. That's what crypto is for — trading stuff.
Elo Trace continues. Look here. Coinbase is down 75% from all-time high. Hood is up 79% from the lows and gunning for new highs. And this is very important because instead of trying to analyze it, you just saw it in the chart. Hood has been in a fantastic bull trend ever since back in May. It's a massive bull trend and a very clean chart — up only. This is the kind of chart I like. I don't like charts when it's too much sideways, bull, bear, bull, bear. I want when it is a trend, it's a big trend. And up until now, Robinhood has been displaying that very nicely. Since this bull trend — up only — while Coinbase is struggling. They're struggling a lot. They're trying to find their footing, still in a massive bear trend. Nothing is happening.
So now you also have kind of an explanation of why that is. Robinhood chain is thriving with new live apps and energy. To be fair, Base was also big during the first week. Robinhood chain is as big as the first week — maybe it's going to continue to be big. But you remember Base, it was also big during the first week. Didn't some meme coins go above a billion? Some meme on Base went to above a billion for sure. But Base is dying. And that's true. Brian Armstrong is allergic to engaging with community. Vlad followed the leading meme coins on day one and knows cults like GME are the backbone of his retail business. I can't help but feel that Coinbase is looking at a truly hellish path of losing their centralized exchange business and chain business at the same time to Vlad. Vlad the Impaler is going to come for Coinbase while Robinhood looks to eat the everything-up cake and have it too.
Yeah, super interesting analysis. That's why the big problem is when you hold a coin or hold a stock just because you may like it. You see how things change quickly. They change this fast. A few months ago it wasn't like this — it wasn't that Base was being challenged by Hood. That's why the best approach is to see the trend. Stay away from bear trend, be in bull trend. Otherwise you're going to be following news, and sometimes news is important and sometimes not. It's impossible to trade based on news, but based on trends you knew already. Ever since back in August 2025, it was time to be bearish Coinbase. No rocket science. Very, very simple.
Phantom and Hyperliquid Seek CFTC Clarity on Non-Custodial Regulation
Now looking at the overall transaction volume, we do see Robinhood chain now overtaking Hyperliquid when it comes to spot. Hyperliquid is mainly for perps, not spot, but for spot Robinhood is bigger now based on meme trading.
You now have this discussion about Coinbase versus Hyperliquid. And then on another flank, you have Hyperliquid and Phantom going to the CFTC and asking for rules — asking for confirmation, some kind of legal document stating that if you do something onchain, if you do something that is self-custodial, you are not regulated. And this guy — he's co-founder of Phantom — he's saying: "We gave a direct answer, and it starts with how onchain markets actually work. Most of the current rule book assumes an intermediary holds your funds and handles your orders. That assumption made sense when there was no alternative. Now onchain markets give users a way to trade" — yada yada yada. And so all in all, they wrote this letter. Phantom and Hyperliquid wrote this letter asking exactly how to ensure that you're not regulated, and basically asking them to say that if you're non-custodial, you're not regulated.
"Codify the March relief for every non-custodial interface. Confirm that writing protocol software on its own is not regulated activity, and give regulated exchanges a workable path to perform their functions onchain. None of this is asking for a pass. Registered venues would still be registered, and the rules would still attach to whoever handles the customer funds."
And so this would be massive if they can get it through. If they can get the CFTC to say that you can do anything onchain, you can do any kind of user interface — for example, Phantom is just a user interface, they don't hold your funds, but they charge a lot of fees when you use their interface. They charge a big fee when you swap, they charge a big fee when you bridge. They have a big business. And the question is, can they get confirmation from the CFTC that yes, indeed, it is okay and you are not regulated? That would be crazy. That would be quite crazy. Then anyone can build a financial service from their bedroom. You connect your wallet, you do everything onchain. That's how it should be.
But I'm very curious how the bankers are going to react. I'm very curious how fintechs are going to react. Because if that rule is passed, you can be a 12-year-old in India writing software that boomers in the US are going to connect their wallet to, and you would have full regulatory pass. You would be actually legitimately established in the US. Let's see, guys. That would be a fantastic world. It would also involve a lot of scamming, but scamming is already illegal, so you don't need extra stuff — it's already illegal.
Anam's Memecoin Experiment: Revenue Sharing vs. Market Reality
Moving on, guys. Just like we discussed, currently we are right before the next crypto bull. Within the coming months, we will likely bottom out and find a bottom — maybe October, maybe September, who knows. But a lot of people are sidelined. Many, many people are sidelined. And by the way, currently it's good to be sidelined. The worst thing is to just be holding from the top. But as soon as you see momentum happen — and currently there is very little momentum, guys. Just to be clear, a few meme coins have been pumping, so I don't want to overexaggerate that something big has happened. Nothing big has really happened. But that's why we're preparing. That's why we're here looking at it, because as the rotation starts, we will be part of it. But just to be clear, you have not missed anything. It's good to be sidelined now.
The bad thing is to be all-in since the peak, thinking that Wintermute and Binance are manipulating the bull market and that you're still in a bull market. Many people are still thinking we're in a bull market and that Wintermute and Binance are manipulating us down. That's the worst. Now you have to be sidelined. It's actually very, very good. But remember, things are changing fast, and the default view that crypto is finished is not going to be for long.
Speaking about the Anam coin — it's not doing too well. I'm very interested in how this experiment is going to go. It fell about 50% from the top. Many people formed positions at the top. Now, Anam himself is doing everything great. I think he's doing everything according to how he's been saying it. He's been sharing the gains, sharing the revenue, etc. And I'm just curious how it all is going to end, because you understand the pleb is not appreciating what you do if the coin does not pump. You can be Mother Teresa. If Mother Teresa does a coin and she shares all the revenue and she blesses you — at some point the attention is going to go to another coin. At some point people are going to move on. You share the revenue, they just dump it. You try to get people excited, but in crypto we have a goldfish brain. We're excited for one week, then next week it's something else.
Now in some cases, coins do get escape velocity — like Dogwifhat in the last cycle — and they become the meme asset of that cycle. They keep attention despite our goldfish brain. So I'm very curious how it's going to be. He's obviously promoting it a lot. I'm going to go through some of the ways he's trying to promote it on his streams. And I'm curious how it's going to end, because even if you do great things for people, even if you share the revenue — he's sharing millions of dollars in revenue to the holders — they're still not going to be thankful if it drops. You can be the best Batman. Batman saves Gotham. They still want to grill him. They want to catch him and cage the Batman. You can have the best Batman gear, the most shiny armor. You save them from the Joker, you save them from everything. Still, they want you in a cage. The same thing is kind of with crypto. That's why you have to be a bit careful. It's human nature. If this thing goes down, no matter how great you are, how much revenue share you do, they're going to come grilling.
So Anam has to be a bit careful here. Now obviously there is a chance it goes into escape velocity. There is a chance it becomes like Dogwifhat. But there's also a chance people just move on. So he's saying trust me, trust me, trust me. Let's listen to what he's saying.
Anam: Obviously a lot of people trust me. I think that's the biggest reason why what I'm doing is different. I have 58% of the supply right now. People are not concerned I'm going to be selling the supply. People know I'm using it in the best ways for marketing the project. People know I want to give it back to people. People know I want to utilize it with other protocols. They're aware that I am super bullish on crypto. I would never want to hurt the community of people that have put me where I am over the past nine years. I would never do that. So that's the biggest thing. But also, a lot of people don't go all-in with this stuff. I'm all-in. There's nobody that's going to be as all-in as me on crypto. It's not possible. So there's nobody really that can compete with me in that way. And yeah, just the community that I've engaged with.
Ivan on Tech: Yeah, I mean, listen. I actually don't doubt him. I think he's really trying to do something great here, but it's going to be tough. It's going to be tough. I wish him luck. And here is where we're going to be spectating. But to take a bet on it now that it has a big discount — with a small amount, just a small amount — does make sense, because in terms of attention it is basically this coin that has attention, and then on Robinhood it is Cash Cat or something, and those are the two. So I have a small, small, small bag — but that's it — in case they go to the Dogwifhat level. Fantastic. But now that it's dumped basically 50% from the peak, I did pick up a bit because I see he's working. Anam is really working. Every day he's tweeting, he's pushing it. Fantastic. And he has a hard job. There's a very high chance that he gets grilled by the pleb. He becomes the main character in crypto. We grill all main characters. That's why you don't want to get too big on Twitter. We grill all main characters. And especially if you have a coin, man, you're going to get grilled so bad if it goes down, which is inevitable at some point. But maybe he's different. Let's see.
He's saying here he will be like Mr. Beast. Let's listen.
Interviewer: I know it's a goal of yours and of this community and of this effort to eventually flip Mr. Beast. And what time frame are we working with? Ideally, for you in a perfect world, dream scenario — flip Mr. Beast by when?
Anam: By end of the year. Honestly, by the end of the year, I think if I'm right on Solana and right on markets and right on the onchain trends occurring, I think we can give away more than $200 million by end of the year. And I say that because I kind of have a supercharged asset that Mr. Beast doesn't have. I have a token that's connected to me and connected to memes, connected to the bull market on Solana. Last cycle, if you saw what happened with memes — Bonk went to five billion, Whiff went to five billion. But I wasn't on the team, didn't have good supply control on it, did have good control of the narrative and the things that you can do around marketing and entertainment with the coin. And in this situation I do. And I think that it's really important at the beginning of these bull markets in crypto that the core protocol —
Ivan on Tech: So guys, I think for us, the way I see it — Anam here is taking a massive risk. Massive personal risk. He may get grilled as an influencer, lose trust, etc. For me to have a small allocation to see him do it, to see him try to make the move — it does make sense, because currently there is not too much else. So I'm putting a small, small allocation in now that it is down 50%. We're not buying the peak. We're not the pleb following in. But it could also be that we buy and it goes to zero. That's how it is with small caps. You buy and it goes to zero many times. That's how it is. So don't come back crying to me, guys. I keep telling you — no crying. No crying in the casino. No crying in the comment section. I tell you something, it doesn't work out — you should have had a stop-loss. Why don't you have a stop-loss? You're uneducated. The first thing you learn in mechanical rules is stop-loss. My biggest lessons in markets have also come from losing a lot of money. I lost a lot. I learned from it. It's been quite life-changing. So that's very important. Big boy pants on.
Democrats, Trump's Memecoin Losses, and Crypto Political Risk
Now moving on. We have the return of the Empire Strikes Back. Basically, we have Elizabeth Warren. She has been in exile for the past year or so, basically since Trump won the election. She has not had a lot of power. All Democrats basically became castrated after Trump won Congress, the House — he won everything. So we don't hear a lot from her. But the Empire is going to strike back bigly, because we have midterm elections coming up, and there's likely going to be a bit of a shakeup. Democrats are going to be back.
And we're not political on all other issues. Non-political on crypto. It is just very clear who is pro-crypto and not pro-crypto. So that's why, by definition, we have no choice but to like the Republican side a bit more on this issue. But I'm apolitical. If you're a Democrat, you're welcome. Everyone is welcome here.
So, Lummis is trying to get the Clarity Act. She's trying, she's trying, she's trying. Warren has come out and said the Clarity Act is a ticket for sanction evasion — again attacking crypto, saying that crypto is somehow connected to sanction evasion. Lummis coming back saying, "We both want bad actors held accountable. The difference is I'm working on a solution. You're shouting into the void hoping the status quo fixes itself." So it's the battle of the grandmas, the battle of the elderly ladies. Let's see who is going to win. Place your bets.
But just like this analysis is speaking about here, we may see a bit of a backlash. If Democrats come into power, we need to be prepared if you have a crypto business. Let's listen.
Guest: Yeah, I think there's an unfortunate reality here, which is that we're going to kind of see — I suspect there's a lot of political pain coming because of this. There's a lot of stuff in crypto that's hard to understand. This is easy to understand: the President made $2 billion from crypto and everybody who invested in it lost money. That feels bad. And like, almost — to your point, Tom — that money was not made by traders losing money or something like that. That obviously can't be the way in which Trump monetizes royalties or something. But that perfect equivalence between the two makes for just a really bad narrative for this whole ethics conversation, which is increasingly going to be animating the conversation around crypto. So we'll see. But yeah, I think it's —
Ivan on Tech: Yeah. So man, if you're a Democrat, you have such an easy life now. If you are a Democratic politician, you have an open goal. You know, you guys like football — imagine Haaland. He's running and it's an open goal. And Haaland is like Elizabeth Warren. She's running with her head forward like he does. It's so easy, man. It's so easy now. You have Trump making two billion, Melania coin down 99%, Trump coin down 99%. You have all of these insider allegations in stock market trading via Hyperliquid. Oh my god, man. I would be a communistic dictator easily here. If Democrats don't utilize this to unite everyone and get them to vote, man, there's some problem up here.
And listen, they are utilizing it fully. Elizabeth Warren coming out saying, "Any crypto legislation that does not stop Donald Trump and his family from continuing to profit off of crypto is failing the American people." Oh man, this is going to resonate so nicely. It's going to resonate so nicely with the American people. Average person struggling, average person fired, average person has a very high cost of living — everything is high. The average person is not winning. The average person is getting fleeced in all directions for many different reasons. And they want some way to channel that. And then you see Trump making billions. Oh my god.
A report from a cryptocurrency analytics firm details how those who bought the Trump memecoin have fared, with most recent investors having lost money while sophisticated traders did better. New York Times: nearly a million investors lost a total of $3.8 billion on Trump. Okay guys, if I were Elizabeth Warren, here's what I would do. How much did people lose in Bernie Madoff? About $10 billion. I would say, "Listen, you remember Bernie Madoff, how big of a scandal it was? Trump is like the same size. But Bernie Madoff scammed the rich people. Trump scammed the average pleb. So it's even worse." They should hire me. We would have a field day. How much did SBF lose? You remember SBF, how big of a scandal that was? Trump's situation is even bigger. But SBF was international — many international victims. Trump coin was mainly his supporters in the US. It's like worse. Oh guys, it's going to get spicy as hell.
Ben Bernanke Joins Anthropic Board Amid AI Investment Concerns
Moving on. There are interesting things happening in the AI space, where Anthropic has now appointed Ben Bernanke to its governance board. Very interesting. Just as we are seeing the AI stocks go down a bit, just as we're seeing the AI mania calm down a bit, just as we're seeing many question marks about whether this overinvestment in AI is sustainable or not, just as we're seeing many question marks about whether consumers and companies are ready to pay for AI in ways that are required for all of this infrastructure to be worth it — it's very interesting that you then have Fed chair Bernanke. Let me just verify with Grok quickly. Yeah, it's true. It's true.
So this also comes just as we're seeing the Treasury doing a report on how the AI bubble pop may be a systemic risk to the whole economy. The answer here, guys, is that this will lead to money printing very fast. Why did they put him in here? Is he the best at public mission alignment and advanced AI? I think he's here to look at economic risk for all of this going to zero. Because it's overhyped. AI is great — I use AI every day. I'm not against AI. I love AI. We've been profiting a lot from AI. Our whole ecosystem is profiting a lot from AI.
Just like we said here on Bulmania — most people crying in the crypto bear, they want the bull back, they lost money in the bear. Bulmania members are different because since Q4 2025 we have been rotating out of crypto into AI, and people share stuff like this in our Discord a lot. So we have been profiting from this. We are very good at playing it. Even though we understand this is some overinvestment — it's crazy. And as soon as they go into bear trend, we're out.
But so many people, including the government, including economists looking at how these different companies have been managing their money in investments — they are sounding the alarm. If this doesn't play out, if we don't see the revenue come in — and there's not a lot of revenue in AI, that's the biggest problem. You hear fantastic revenue numbers. Nvidia beats revenue. This bit you hear a lot — fantastic revenue numbers. But where does it come from? It comes either from orders that may or may not get paid for, but they still book the revenue, or it comes from big techs investing in AI, investing in all of these chips. So the chipmakers have big revenue, yes. But all this investment needs to be paid off by the end consumer and end clients. And that's a big, big question mark. We don't see the end consumer and end client paying a lot for AI. We see the capex investments, and that revenue goes into chip manufacturers. They beat earnings. They have insane earnings. Good, good, good. But it's a bit of a misleading story, which we know about. We still are bullish on AI until they go into bear trend. That's it. Because this mania can continue.
But it's interesting that Ben Bernanke is now part of Anthropic. Isn't that interesting? I think they're going to print. He's the bridge between the printer and AI. So when AI has problems, this guy comes, he clicks the button on the printer. He tells Kevin Warsh, "Let's go, man. Let's go." For Bitcoin, guys, it's going to be great. It's going to be great. I love Ben Bernanke in Anthropic. For Bitcoin, it's very, very good.
Wealth Tax Debate and Financial Mindset
Now guys, moving on. You have Gary Stevenson speaking about wealth tax over and over again, because it's the easiest topic to speak about to the public. The pleb loves wealth tax. They want to tax the rich, eat the rich. Fantastic. There's a lot of debate. Is he correct? Is he not correct?
Overall, guys, it's all about your mindset. If you are poor, you can become rich today. It's easier than ever. With online, it is easier than ever. You can be alone, you can build something, you can do content, you can do an app. You have all the tools. You don't need any permission. You can even do self-custodial financial services without any regulation. The playing field is quite level nowadays.
But of course, if you see that rent is higher, cost of living is higher — there are also bad things happening for the average person. If you are just in the rat race, I understand. That's why we speak a lot about going full-time crypto, getting into trading, understanding trading — because it's easier than it's ever been to be in financial markets. It's easier than ever to create things. But you need to have the right mindset. For people that are just in the rat race, for them it's tougher. Everything is tougher. If you are just 9-to-5, it's very tough. I understand. But at the same time, to do your own thing, to trade, to be in financial markets — easier than ever.
So anyway, Gary Stevenson is speaking about wealth tax. I mean, actually, if I understand him correctly, he's not speaking about rich dudes in general — he's speaking about the 100 billion-plus guys owning government debt. And there is some truth to that. At the same time, if they start with wealth tax, it's not going to be targeting only those 100 billion-plus guys. Very quickly, it's going to trickle down. But there is some truth in that there is now such an ease to put money in government bonds. You get 5% per year, paid for by the taxpayer. So if you have a lot of money, it's like free money. You don't have to do anything. You just buy government debt. If you have $10 billion, that's a lot. And then next year you can take whatever revenue you have from that and buy more government debt. The government is now even more indebted to you. So there is some truth to that — how much the public owns, how much the debt holders hold, etc.
The problem is it's going to trickle down to the average rich guy that lives on your street. As soon as you start with wealth tax, it's going to trickle down very fast. And then that's the problem, because the rich guys on your street — they're the productive ones. If they leave, it's finished. That's the problem. Anyway, it's a very complex topic. We are apolitical. Our channel is purely apolitical. My only message to you is to take responsibility for yourself. The world is easier than ever. Money is easier to make than ever. There's crypto, there's so many things you can do if you want.
EU AI Policy: Palantir's Alex Karp on Being Ignored by European Regulators
Moving on. Alex Karp from Palantir is a bit on a roll here. He's speaking about how the EU is not listening to him and why they're not really paying attention to US companies, and instead they have their own experts from Germany who studied some kind of PhD giving them AI advice — which is bad advice. Listen to this.
Alex Karp: Like, they won't listen to us. Just think about that. You have Peter Thiel — like the most important venture person maybe that's ever lived, co-founder of Palantir — and you have me, who was like somewhat, you know, basic, partially dramatic, did my PhD in Germany. And you have no tech industry. Wouldn't you have us on speed dial?
Interviewer: Yeah.
Alex Karp: I mean, like on speed dial. Like, you don't have to listen to what we're saying. You don't have to agree with what we're saying. Who are you talking to? You're talking to your, I don't know, expert that came here and studied us.
Interviewer: Trust the experts.
Alex Karp: Yeah. Trust the experts.
Ivan on Tech: That's typical EU. Create some kind of policy group that goes to Silicon Valley, studies AI and how bad it is, studies crypto and how bad it is, then comes back, writes a report for two years, and then that gets given to the decision maker. Classic, classic. But listen, we love it. We're apolitical. We love all kinds of that.
JP Morgan's Private Blockchain Claim vs. Bitcoin
Next. Look here. JP Morgan — I fully disagree here with JP Morgan. They say the biggest risk to Bitcoin isn't Strategy, but traditional finance creating private blockchains. No, guys. Traditional finance creating private blockchains — why is he saying such retarded things? It's like the basic stuff. He really doesn't understand Bitcoin, or he just says it because he's creating a private chain. A private blockchain doesn't have the freedom of self-custody. It can be frozen. It's not neutral. It is likely tied to some jurisdiction. While Bitcoin is worldwide, no one can take it from you. It's not controlled by anyone. It cannot be confiscated if you don't give your seed phrase. It's like night and day. Why is he even comparing them?
Maybe if you are the CEO of JP Morgan, you've never had an issue with a frozen transaction or endless KYC refreshes. But for the average person, especially if you are a bit international — if you've lived in different countries — oh my god, you know the problem. This KYC expired. I need to refresh. We need this document, we need that document, we need a notary. You do a big transfer — why are you doing a transfer? Send us this, send us that. It's frozen. Now it's unfrozen. Man, it's unusable.
So the private blockchain is going to be the same, just different tech. It's not like it's going to have different compliance rules. You're going to have the same. And many banks are also so scared nowadays. They're over-complying in ways which are insane. Making them unusable. So obviously Bitcoin is an answer to that. Stablecoins are an answer. Everything non-custodial is an answer. And if you have something on a corporate chain, there's also a banking chain there — a private banking chain — and there's zero trust on that.
But I think you guys know it already. Maybe some of you are new here. There's always someone who's like, "Oh, but what about the private chains? Will banks kill Bitcoin?" There's always some kind of person at Thanksgiving: "Yeah, but what do you think about XRP? It will kill Bitcoin because the banks are behind it. Banks are not behind Bitcoin, but banks are behind XRP, so they're going to kill it." I just want to clarify the basics. It's always someone who's like — he thinks he understands a bit more. He learned about crypto yesterday. He loves XRP. "I love XRP because it's by the banks. It's Bitcoin but by the banks. So is it going to win?" I'm telling them no. Okay. Moving on.
NFTs: Digital Collectibles vs. Physical Merchandise
I cannot reiterate enough how much NFTs are inevitable. I actually agree to some point, especially if you love gaming, you love Runescape, you've been playing MMOs, World of Warcraft — I think NFTs are going to come back. It's nice to collect items, man. It's nice to collect items. I want to collect swords. I want to collect rune plate armor. I want to collect items. I now have money. When I was a pleb 9-year-old, I did not have money. Let me collect some items. Let's speculate on items. Why does this have to be an ugly chart all the time? Let's do something more fun.
I think this summer, early fall is the last great accumulation. I don't think you necessarily have to accumulate the existing stuff, except Pudgy Penguins, which I love in all directions. Other than that, it's probably going to be new stuff also. We just need money to come back to this industry. Money to the narratives to come back. They're going to come back when Bitcoin goes into bull trend.
If we keep going up here, fantastic. But we still have the overhang of going lower. I think NFTs are also inevitable. Not necessarily existing ones, although existing ones have some kind of signal of life. Look here — Doodles introduces Toy Factory. Transform any image or idea into a custom toy. That's good. But I'm actually not that bullish on this physical toy thing, because who is it really for? It's for kids. Okay, nothing wrong with doing stuff for kids. It's fantastic. But at the same time, when I play Runescape, I don't want physical. I want digital. I want a digital party hat, a Santa hat. Physical just makes me realize that it's a bit off for grown-ups to be interested in this gaming stuff. But if it is digital, it feels legit. It kind of feels like finance. You understand? As soon as you bring me a physical plushy — also the word "plushy," I hate it, man. I hate "plushy." Oh, we have a plushy. I don't want a plushy.
So when all these NFT projects start making physical stuff, for me it kills the magic. It's like, okay, here is a toy. But who is interested in toys? Dudes that collect stuff? I'm not really vibing with that identity. I don't identify myself as a dude that has a bunch of plushies. I get disgusted, actually. So I don't want any physical. Don't give me toys, man. It's for kids, which is great. But I want a digital party hat like in Runescape, and it needs to be tradable. Then it's kind of like finance and it feels sophisticated enough. I want to feel sophisticated. I don't want to feel like I'm getting a freaking plushy.
And they have some kind of pack you buy — like a Pokémon pack. It's clay, man. Gala Games does some MMO. Oh yeah, by the way, Polymarket is now launching a perp exchange. So you can try it. And there's some kind of stable vault with a solution for embedding fixed-rate stablecoin yield into any financial product. There you go. So if you have your self-custodial wallet that you built in your basement — because you don't need a license if that CFTC letter gets published — you can now integrate and let your users get yield. That's nice.
These guys in ETH are pushing Glamsterdam. Nothing's going to happen to ETH. Don't worry about it. They need to scale the transaction fee. I don't know if that's going to happen.
PulseChain Update: Down 55% Year-to-Date
And guys, finally — big shout out to our favorite development class, the class for special kids, which is the Pulse community. These guys are down another 55% since the beginning of the year. I warned and warned and warned and warned. They kept saying Ivan is wrong, Ivan is wrong, Ivan is wrong. I gave you free analysis. I've been educating for free. I gave you free advice. You did not listen. And now you've lost another 55% since the beginning of the year. Just since the beginning of the year. When you look a bit further, it's down 99%. Imagine — just from the beginning of the year, you could have more than doubled your money if you listened to Ivan. That money could have been used to buy into the new bull run which is coming soon. If you listened to Ivan, I tried saving you. Some of you listened. Some of you spat in my face. It happened bigly. People were spitting in my face so much. It's okay. I still love you, man. I love Pulse. You can read comments here and based on that try to understand if it's bottom or not bottom. But yeah, that's it. Big shout out to Pulse — wrecked, mega wrecked.
Charles Hoskinson Leaves Twitter (Again)
Cardano political party. What is that? Charles is doing Cardano, man. He should focus on Cardano, but now he's going to — well, he did release some kind of video here. Let's see. He said he's going to Discord.
Charles Hoskinson: Very warm Colorado. Just wanted to make a very quick video. I had some people come back from London. Just launched its testnet. It's coming up. Going anywhere. I'm not retiring. I'm not leaving.
Ivan on Tech: Why is he posting on Twitter? He said he made like a six-hour series — many episodes — about why he's moving to Discord. He declared, you know, normally people make some drama by saying "I'm leaving Twitter now. I'm leaving Twitter. I'm leaving." Declaring loudly so everyone knows they're leaving. "I'm leaving Twitter. It's too toxic. I'm leaving now." Then they're back like next week. Classic, classic. But not only like the Charles — what he did, he also made like six-hour content while he's leaving Twitter. Not just a drama statement. Six-hour deep dive on how they're going to do Discord, philosophy, coordination of humans. He really went all in. So, okay. "I'm leaving." Okay, bro. See you in five minutes.
Q&A
Okay, guys. Let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates. Let's do like one question because we have just only five minutes.
Where can I buy your book? I think it's below. It's written by me.
Ian, what do you think about Simon Cat before all market? Let's see, guys. Simon Cat. What, guys? But don't ask me about some random crap. Don't ask me. If it's not on the trending list, don't ask me, because then it's like an indirect shill. You know — "Ivan shills our shitcoin." Oh, look here, Ivan knows about our shitcoin. Don't ask me about a shitcoin that is unknown. Don't ask me about it. The indirect shill — "Ivan, what do you think about this shitcoin I just created? It's $1 liquidity." Oh, look guys on Twitter, Ivan talks about my shitcoin. Get out of here. Yeah, I don't see it here. I don't see it.
Cardano political party — what is that? Charles is doing Cardano, man. Yeah. I mean, he should focus on Cardano. But now he's going to — well, good luck. Good luck. Maybe it's going to be good. I don't know.
Okay, guys. That's it. Listen, we're close to one hour. Thank you very much, everyone. We're going to be back on Monday. Big shout out to Guzman for timestamping us today. Enjoy your weekend.