Digital Asset News interviews RobArt and previews Matt Crosby on Bitcoin cycle analysis
Digital Asset News host Rob interviews crypto analyst RobArt about Bitcoin market cycles, profit-taking strategy, and whether the current bottom is in.
Summary
The host Rob (Digital Asset News) interviews RobArt, a crypto analyst based in Dubai, about Bitcoin market cycle theory and accumulation strategy. RobArt is known for calling the $126,000 Bitcoin top and for advocating profit-taking against the prevailing "diamond hands" narrative. The central debate is whether Bitcoin has already bottomed at a 55% crash from its all-time high, or whether a further drop to approximately 65% is still needed to confirm a true cycle bottom — consistent with the pattern of diminishing crashes seen across every prior cycle (roughly 95%, 85%, then 77% last cycle, implying ~65% this time). RobArt is currently 50% deployed into the market, with plans to add another 10%, while holding 40% in reserve pending Q4 developments.
The host also shares his own dynamic DCA approach in detail: he buys Bitcoin every Monday via Cash App recurring purchases, scaling up the dollar amount as price falls through risk-level thresholds derived from Into the Cryptoverse data, and scaling back as risk rises — an approach he used heavily during the $60K accumulation window.
The episode closes with an appeal for donations toward an animal shelter rebuild (the channel's '20 Hours to $200K' fundraiser), with RobArt personally pledging to donate, followed by a preview of an upcoming segment with Matt Crosby of Look Into Bitcoin, who will address the same four-year cycle questions.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Introduction and RobArt's Market Cycle Framework
Host: And we're back. Just like that, RobArt is with us. Rob, how you doing today?
RobArt: Hey there, Rob. I'm great. Thank you very much. All is well. How are you?
Host: We're doing good. Unfortunately, RobArt is calling in from Dubai, and it's 40 degrees Celsius. Hopefully he's got his air conditioning unit on. If you're not following Rob, I'll put a link in the description. This is how I found him — he was giving contrarian views, saying there was not going to be a super cycle and that it might not be a bad idea to take some profits. I looked at that and thought that makes a lot of sense. And as time has gone on, Rob, you've been the same person for as long as I've been following you — over four years now. You've done some pretty good things as far as telling people to wait, telling people to accumulate, and now here we are in the bear market going into potentially a bull market. What do you see? What's your thought process?
RobArt: Thank you for having me on, Rob. It's a pleasure to be here. In regards to crypto and what's going on — the way I look at crypto is I play market cycles. I'm not a utility guy. I don't believe in utility in the sense that I don't believe anything is being used in a meaningful way. The way I look at it is just math.
We know that with every single passing cycle — and I think of it more as a macro market cycle, not necessarily a strict four-year cycle; it can be three and a half years, four and a half years, roughly four years, maybe five or seven years in the future — the ROI is becoming smaller for Bitcoin and generally most blue chips. We also know that the crashes are diminishing. Bitcoin's crashes become smaller by roughly 10% every single market cycle. So rounding the numbers: first it was roughly 95%, then 85%, then 75% — well, last time was 77%, but I'm rounding — and so this time it would make sense for the crash to be 65%. Roughly. It can be 67%, 68%, 62%. So far it's been 55%. But since crashes are diminishing, the way I look at it, there's such a thing as an accumulation phase. Once Bitcoin has crashed 50% to 65% in a given market cycle, that's when I start accumulating.
Right now I'm 50% in the market — I've deployed 50% of my accumulation budget in crypto. I'll be deploying another 10%, so I'll be 60% in the market. With the remaining 40%, I'll be waiting to see what happens in Q4, whether or not we get the remaining 10% drop that would take Bitcoin to that roughly 65% crash to see the bottom. It's not something that needs to happen, but this has happened every single time since around 2010 — for the past 14 years, for sure, it has happened every single time. So if it does not happen this time and the 55% crash was indeed the bottom, then it's an exception to the rule. It's a deviation from the norm, and that'll be something new.
I also believe it's very important to stick more or less to percentages and rough time frames. I always say: don't try to catch the bottom and sell the top. Simply buy low, sell high — and then preferably, if you get the chance, buy lower and sell higher.
Host: Buy low and sell high — I've heard of that. Sounds familiar. Keep going.
RobArt: A lot of people are very excited about catching the exact bottom and the exact top, but nobody — including me — has ever been able to do that consistently. It's a nice fairy tale we all like to hear, but it's never happened in the past, so I don't believe it's going to happen in the future. If that were the case, someone like me or you or someone else would right now be on the cover of Forbes with 20 billion dollars. It doesn't happen.
So I like to keep it realistic. I tell people: just wait for major crashes. Once the major crashes are here, start buying. Start dollar-cost averaging at new lows, preferably with equal amounts of money if you can. Ignore the crashes. Don't get scared. Diversify. Don't put all your money into any one coin. Have at least five coins in your portfolio. Sit tight, wait for the market to recover, and when we're several years into the market cycle, regardless of where the price is, just sell. Whatever the market gives you — that's pretty much it.
How RobArt Called the $126K Top
Host: That's a great thesis and a solid run-through. Let's break it down, because the big thing was about taking profits, percentages, and bear markets. I'll be honest with you, Rob — I've looked at all these indicators: Glassnode, the PUELL Multiple, the Pi Cycle Top, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, all of it. And they never seem to hit those indicators perfectly. But I do remember seeing posts from you in October and November saying, "Hey, this might be close to the top. You should probably be getting out." It wasn't perfect, because no one's perfect. But you were talking a lot about it. How did you do that?
RobArt: Primarily, the first way I did it all started again with percentages. The penultimate cycle crashed roughly 85%, so it made sense that we were going to crash roughly 75%. Bitcoin crashed 77% — so it pretty much did what it was supposed to do.
Once that happened, I simply looked at the diminishing crashes, the percentages between them, used the roughly four-year cycle theory, and it just happened to come in at roughly $126,000 Bitcoin in October 2025. That's where we topped. My point wasn't that we were going to top there exactly — it could be $130K, $120K, $115K, roughly in October. That's pretty much how I was able to do that.
In addition to that, there were several things I was looking out for: stocks rampaging, indexes hitting new highs, metals going ballistic and skyrocketing, and — this was a big red flag for me — Ethereum failing to breach its all-time high. It's the number one altcoin with the biggest market cap. Back in previous cycles, whenever Ethereum broke out and started pumping, many other coins joined it. Some coins that had done nothing before woke up. But the fact that Ethereum was doing nothing was a red flag, since we were roughly four years into the cycle and Bitcoin had already made several consecutive all-time highs. That was a big red flag for me to get out.
Unfortunately, I did not make the profits I wanted to make — I was looking for something much better. But I sucked it up, took the profits the market gave me, and got out with 90%. The reason I got out with only 90% is that the remaining 10% of the portfolio was in — excuse my French — garbage coins. There was no point selling that 10% because they're very volatile; some did well, some did not. I always say: if you're going to play around with small caps — and even mid-caps — don't use more than 10% of your portfolio.
So for me this cycle, I'm using roughly 50% in Bitcoin. The other 40% will be split between XRP, Ethereum, and maybe a few other blue chips. The other 10% I will once again consider for some mid-caps and low-caps. We'll see.
Reviewing Past Cycles and Accumulation Strategy
Host: Let's break it down even further. When we look at crashes reducing over time — from 2013 to 2015, I wasn't around during that time, but from highs to lows you went from a couple hundred bucks to $1,127 in November 2013, and then within about a year you had an 85% drop. Then for 2017–2018, this is where I got in. Rob, when did you get into the markets?
RobArt: I've been in crypto since 2016, but it wasn't something I was doing full-time. I went full-time basically in 2018. When the crashes started happening, I was watching the market to see if I could predict it correctly — because before that I was in penny stocks. I was trying to see whether or not I could guess the top. I started sharing it publicly, and it turned out I was guessing the top correctly. Then I thought, let's see if I can predict the crashes. I predicted the crashes correctly. So in 2018 I started making videos talking about my expectations. Then another market cycle worked out, and I thought, okay, looks like I can do this. Looks like I'm pretty good at this. So I stuck to it and I've been full-time crypto since then.
Host: Awesome. Here's what I'm going to do — on my website there's a tool called Price Profits. And I've got the most ridiculous price predictions on there. Price predictions are worthless, we know this. You get the most ridiculous stuff out there. My favorite: Samson Mow — one million in 2026. And then Raoul Pal, who unfortunately is on my wall of shame. Nothing against Raoul, a very smart guy, very nice guy, just horrible price predictions. Anyhow, I'm going to add you in. That would be great.
This is what I'm going to talk about on NFA Live — it's me, Guy, and Ben. We're going to talk about the four-year cycles. Are they broken? Do we still have a negative trajectory into Q4? That could be October, November, or December. And then do we start to take off from there? So how do you see it right now? Did we bottom on July 1st, 2026, or do you see it differently?
Is the Bottom In? RobArt's Current Position
RobArt: Right now, one of the things we're talking about on my Patreon is exactly why I'm 50% in the market and will be deploying another 10%. I always say: don't listen to what people say — look at what they're doing with their portfolio. Right now I'm not sure. There's a bottoming structure that has worked twice in the past, and it just worked out again. In accordance with that structure, the bottom is in.
But the only factor that's missing for me is the percentages, and that's the only thing that has been very consistent. So if you have to ask me and I have to give you a reply, I will say that the bottom is still not in. And if Q4 comes and goes with no 65% crash, the bottom is in. That's how I'll go with it.
Host: That's reasonable. I'm doing the same thing — I've been accumulating for about six months now, and what I've been trying to do is accumulate more as the price goes down and accumulate less as the price goes up. I think if I was so staunch and said, "Okay, the four-year cycles have to play out exactly — October 6th, I'm going to sell my kidney and put everything into Bitcoin," and then I'm wrong — what if this time is different? Which is the most damaging phrase you can say, but still. I can hedge my bet just like you're doing. You said 50% in, 50% out. You've accumulated a little but you're not being reckless. What if it does go down? What if Trump sends out some tweet and says, "Hey, it's US versus China"?
RobArt: One thing I want to say, Rob — if we look at a lot of classic technical analysis, all the technicals are screaming that the bottom is in. The structure is screaming that the bottom is in. But there's one thing I learned in crypto: technical analysis is not really applicable, because it's always eventually wrong. The only thing that has been consistent — and I mean I do this from dusk till dawn, every single day I've been staring at the Bitcoin chart for the past decade — is the diminishing crashes. If we round them up, it's roughly 10% less every single time.
So let's see if this time I'm right again. It should be roughly 65% where the bottom comes in. And this is the thing about the four-year cycle — I keep saying I believe in a roughly four-year cycle, not the four-year cycle. It will keep working until it doesn't. Eventually it will stop working, like every single pattern eventually stops working. But I do believe in it because it has been working very well so far and has helped to guess tops and bottoms and accumulate properly.
So if we are to use the roughly four-year cycle, somewhere in roughly Q4 or Q1 at the latest next year, we should see Bitcoin crash 65% from its all-time high of $126,000. If that happens, that would tell me that is the bottom. Right now I can't say it because the crash isn't there, but I can definitely say that with a roughly 55% crash, it's definitely a good time to be 50% in the market, accumulate, sit on your hands, and see what happens next.
There is no perfection in crypto. Perfection is a lie. Good enough is good enough — that's the way I look at it.
Host: Good enough is good enough. And to speak to your last point — as a reminder, the last cycle when we bottomed out in November 2022, we're not going to hit the absolute lows of $15,719 and we're not going to sell at the absolute high of $125,000 on October 6th. But if we get pretty damn close — and I remember in 2022 going into December, January, February, you had a lot of time to accumulate, just like we had a lot of time to accumulate at the $60K time frame. Even if we missed the exact bottom, we can still have time to accumulate. There are going to be dips. I think this is the time to start deploying a little bit of capital.
RobArt: Absolutely. I fully agree. And I would also add: it's okay to buy later on in the cycle. It's okay to buy even in a year, as long as you have realistic expectations in terms of ROI and price targets. So if you're going to be buying once Bitcoin has breached $100K again and you expect it to go to $300K — I don't think that's happening in this market cycle. But if you're buying at $100K and planning to take profits at $150K and $180K, that's fine. As long as people are realistic, it's okay.
I've tweeted this several times — talking about why we don't need perfection, we just need to buy low. Back when I was first buying Bitcoin heavily, this was back in 2018–2019. Bitcoin had crashed from $20K and I started buying at approximately $6K. I started dollar-cost averaging at new lows, roughly equal amounts of money.
Host: Was $6K a good buy long-term?
RobArt: Yeah, it was. It went to $126K, and in that cycle it went to $69K. So it did roughly 10x. But it did crash to $3,600. So let's say if you bought at $7K or something, you were down 50%. You'd be upset if you didn't have dry powder to buy more, but you wouldn't be upset if you had gone in with 50% and then used the other 50% to dollar-cost average and bring down your general average.
Host: Yes. And this is the thing — if you're looking at this and thinking it sounds pretty good, I've linked RobArt in the description. You can follow him on X. He's got a lot to say and it's also entertaining. I like to follow people who are entertaining and also have something to say and aren't just parroting everybody with "you've got to buy Bitcoin, hold forever, diamond hands, bro." Me and Rob are not Michael Saylor. Me and Rob are not Samson Mow. Me and Rob are not Tom Lee. We are just guys who would like to gain a little bit, take care of our families, and live a normal life. That's all we're asking for.
RobArt: Absolutely. I fully agree with you, Rob. What's your take, by the way? Can I ask for a quick breakdown of what you're thinking? What do you expect to happen?
The Host's DCA Approach
Host: What I'm doing, besides following you and Ivan and a bunch of other people, is I'm using Ben's website and stealing all his information from Into the Cryptoverse. What I do is very simple — I dynamically DCA. As the price starts to go up, the risk levels go up, so I decrease my buys. I buy every Monday on Cash App. The reason I do that is because the recurring buys have a low spread and the fees are non-existent. They set it up that way because they want you to come back. If you do it one time, they kill you in the fees and the spread — that's no good. On Monday this hits at 6:30. I wake up every day at 4:30, walk my dog, and take a look at the risk levels. If we're at 0.2, I start at $0.49999 — let's say I spend $100. If it goes to 0.3999, I double up to $200. If it goes to 0.2999, I double up again to $400. If it goes to 0.1, and so on and so forth, I'm doubling down.
This last stretch at around the $60K levels, when we've been in the 0.2s and 0.3s, my bank actually did contact me and said, "Sir, there are a lot of Cash App transactions." I said, shut your mouth, I'm just buying Bitcoin.
So that's what I'm doing. I believe, like you, that we are due for another pullback in Q4 — but I'm biased, I want that to happen. If it doesn't happen, I'm okay, because I'll still buy, just not as much. But if we do see a pullback, I will have to sell this worthless kidney and start loading up.
RobArt: Sounds good, Rob. Sounds good.
Closing — Dogs, Donations, and What's Next
Host: Before we take off, two questions. First of all, I know you're in Dubai with your family. Any animals — cats, dogs?
RobArt: Yeah, we have a little dog, a Yorkie.
Host: Okay, first of all — who bought that? Was that you or your wife?
RobArt: That was me.
Host: I've got a friend with the same one. Loves that Yorkie. You know what? It's like Velcro — follows you everywhere, always happy when you're there. And guess what? It never rug pulls you. So Rob's got a dog, I've got a dog, Ivan — who we just had on — has two golden retrievers.
As a reminder, everybody who's watching — we're going to probably do at least 10 to 20K views. Everybody can put in 20 or 40 bucks in crypto. There's a link in the description, or you can go over and donate Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Solana, XRP, Cardano, and stables in USDC. We just need $200K in 20 hours so we can rebuild the actual animal shelter. I'll be updating with a video as we're fabricating the containers, laying down the land, putting in pipes, and all that. If you guys could do that, that'd be great.
Rob, would you like to say anything?
RobArt: Absolutely. Guys, please donate. And I'm going to donate too. It's a noble thing that you're doing. I love dogs, I love pets. Cheers, Rob. Well done.
Host: Dogs are the best. All right, Rob. We'll talk soon.
Now, our next guest coming in is Matt Crosby, head analyst over at Look Into Bitcoin. I'd like to see what he has to say about four-year cycles and the potential pullback coming into Q4 — or not.