Bitcoin technical analysis with a bull thesis for 2027 based on AI-to-crypto capital rotation
Ivan on Tech delivers an urgent Bitcoin price update and outlines his longer-term bull case.
Summary
Ivan on Tech provides an urgent update on Bitcoin breaking below the 2025 yearly low of approximately $74K, with price touching $72.8K. He argues this move is consistent with the bear market plan he outlined in October 2024, when he turned risk-off and identified a buy zone based on the 200-week moving average, which has since risen from $55K to $62K. He dismisses geopolitical noise as the cause of the drop, noting that equities continue to make all-time highs regardless of macro events. Looking further ahead, he presents a bull thesis centered on capital rotating out of AI stocks and into crypto, driven by political backlash against AI-related layoffs, increased taxation of AI companies, and a growing desire among capital holders to seek self-custody assets like Bitcoin as government intervention expands.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin breaks below the 2025 yearly low
Ivan on Tech: Urgent update for Bitcoin — we are going lower. We've broken below the previous yearly low at approximately $74K. We went to $73K, even touching $72.8K. Something very important to note is that this development is significant because that last yearly low was very big resistance over the last few months, as you can see right here on the chart. For now, at least, we are testing it, and for now, at least, we are going lower.
Let's see how the week closes. We're looking at the weekly chart, and the week has to close. Should the week close below the 2025 low, it's a sign that we're likely going into the buy zone. This is important. We are likely going into the sweet, sweet buy zone that we have been expecting ever since October 8th. We became risk-off on October 8th. We drew the buy zone based on the 200-week moving average, which is, by the way, going up. So the buy zone has also been moving up slightly with it, because as you remember, back in October, the buy zone was based on the $55K 200-week moving average. Now that same moving average is at $62K. So we have been moving up a bit, but we are very likely — should we really close the week below $74K — to revisit the 200-week moving average. That will be a good buy zone overall, and in many cases Bitcoin also goes below the 200-week moving average.
Why macro and geopolitical events aren't the real driver
Now, some people will be saying, "But Ivan, Trump said something — that's why we're dumping. It's not a bear trend, it's because Trump said something." But as you know, what Trump says doesn't really matter in this context, because the stock market has been pumping like there's no tomorrow. No matter what happens geopolitically, the stock market does not care — all-time high after all-time high after all-time high. The S&P 500, all-time high after all-time high. Actually, today is going to open even higher if you look at the futures. Looking at the NASDAQ — moving higher and higher, opening around all-time highs today. So equities are not even falling much with recent geopolitical developments.
What's happening? In a bull market, none of this geopolitical noise would matter. And now, in the bear market, as soon as you have a little bit of uncertainty here or there, we dump very, very fast. So keep following the plan. The plan is fantastic.
The bull thesis: AI-to-crypto capital rotation for 2027
Here is the bullish news. Here's the bullish side of the story. Later this year, we're likely to find a bottom. Should we go into the buy zone that we are expecting, I want everyone to become super bullish. Should we go into the buy zone, you have to be extremely bullish, because we now have a very nice thesis forming for the next bull market. I really want to ensure you understand that we have a very nice thesis forming for the bull market that's likely to start later this year and then continue for 2027, until the middle or the end of 2028.
And that thesis is all about the rotation of capital from AI into crypto. Pay attention to this. Remember it.
This is something that I think Arthur Hayes also discussed. You know that during the last few weeks we have been seeing layoffs due to AI on a daily basis. Every day there is an AI layoff. Cloudflare was yesterday. Then we had Meta, we had Coinbase, we had Robinhood. Just Google "AI layoff" and you're going to see endless results — every day there's another one.
This will become a big political topic in the next election cycle. Already now with the midterms later this year, and then after the midterms you have the presidential race starting more or less. 2027 will be all about who is the Democratic nominee, who is the Republican nominee, what's going to happen, what kind of policies they're going to have, and so on and so forth. And of course, AI will be a key topic. How much should AI companies pay in tax? How much money should be redistributed from all of these AI companies? These AI golden boys think they own society. There's going to be such a crazy push against AI, and this is not priced in. All of the taxes that will be imposed on AI in the coming years are not priced into AI stocks. They're not priced into AI semiconductors and so on and so forth.
So all of this will mean that the state will get bigger. More people will be asking for protection from the state, which means that the capital flow — the rush away from more government — people who have money will run away from more government toward self-custody Bitcoin, Zcash, and other privacy tech. It's going to happen on a big scale, because AI will just accelerate this conflict — the conflict between people that have capital and own AI, and those that don't. This conflict is just going to get bigger and bigger and bigger.
I don't think we really understand how this will play out over the coming decades. It's very hard to understand — kind of like the industrial revolution. It was hard to understand at the time that it would lead to communism and capitalism in the last century. How AI will shape this century, who the hell knows. But Bitcoin, privacy, and self-custody is the solution if you have money, if you have capital.
Timeline and emotional discipline
So moving away from AI into crypto is going to be a big theme. Crypto will come back bigger than ever. I know it doesn't feel like that right now, and we still expect it to go a bit lower here into the buy zone, but don't get confused by a temporary bear market. All bear markets are temporary.
We said back in October it's going to be about a year. It's already May — in two days it's June. Then it's Q3, Q4 — boom, bottom, liftoff. It's very soon. It happens very soon.
Most people cannot control their emotions. Most people called the bottom earlier — it was too early. They got so excited. But it's too early. You've got to have a steady hand. You've got to have a clear, steady strategy. You're watching this channel — you have that.