Bitcoin weekly chart analysis with Charlie Burton, examining a pullback into the 50 SMA and the outlook for a new high
Alessio Rastani and trader Charlie Burton analyse Bitcoin's weekly and daily charts, discussing whether the current pullback is a buying opportunity or a potential top.
Summary
Alessio Rastani and Charlie Burton, a professional trader with over 28 years of experience, discuss Bitcoin's current technical setup on the weekly and daily charts. Both analysts are moderately bullish, viewing the pullback as a healthy retest of the 50-period simple moving average rather than a trend reversal. Alessio references a conversation with crypto analyst Ben Cowan, noting that sentiment toward Bitcoin is currently neutral to negative — which both hosts interpret as a contrarian bullish signal. Charlie adds that reduced volatility in major cryptocurrencies has caused speculative traders to move elsewhere, and argues this lack of retail enthusiasm is typically the environment in which markets make their next move higher. The September high of approximately $88,000 is identified as the key level to watch.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Introduction and framing the question
Alessio Rastani: Hey guys, hope you're well. In this video we have our special guest, Charlie Burton, professional trader for more than 28 years. I've known Charlie for a very long time. He's an investor in Bitcoin. Charlie, we've seen this nice pullback on Bitcoin — in fact you have it on your chart right there. So if we can just zoom in on that right-hand side. This is a weekly chart of Bitcoin, right Charlie?
Charlie Burton: Yes. I've purposely put this onto a weekly time frame.
Alessio Rastani: We're seeing this nice pullback to the black line — that's your 50 SMA, right Charlie?
Charlie Burton: It is, yeah.
Alessio Rastani: So we're above the 50 average. We're above the 21 EMA as well, or SMA — I'm not quite sure which one you use, probably SMA. That's a good sign. After a rally like the one we saw from June through to September, we made a high there in September this year and then pulled back. As far as I can see, the pullback has been corrective in structure, which is a good sign — that's a bullish sign in my view. Now, I'll give my view in a few moments, but I want to hear your view, Charlie. The question I want to ask you is: do you think this is a pullback that results in another rally in the next few weeks, taking out the September highs? Or do you think perhaps Bitcoin has topped for this year? And I should say that is not my view, but I would like to hear your thoughts.
Charlie Burton's weekly chart analysis
Charlie Burton: Yeah, it's not my view either. I'm going to have to just zoom out slightly first of all, then I'll zoom back in, because I think technically, as Bitcoin pulls back here, it's a lovely zone that Bitcoin has pulled back into. I'm a bull towards risk assets right now. That might change at some point, maybe in 2027, but I'm still a bull towards risk assets, and so that spills over into Bitcoin.
I know you're going to talk about sentiment, but sentiment is an unloved asset still at the moment, and I think that's still a good thing for the upside. Looking at the weekly chart here, price is trading above that 50. It broke through the 50 moving average and it's done a retest, so it's perfect around this whole zone. My blue moving average is crossing up — coming to cross through the 50. That will cross up in the next week or two. So overall it looks constructive.
I'll go down to the daily chart as well, but I've stuck it on the weekly for now because I think, like you, it looks good. The impulse wave that we had to the upside was good — the strong move that we had back through the late summer. I think that was the sign. There were so many bearish analysts and it was so unloved. We had all those positive divergences at that time and everyone was bearish towards it, so that was a good sign for me. And now I think this is just the second phase. That's how I'm looking at it.
Sentiment analysis — Ben Cowan's view and the contrarian case
Alessio Rastani: I should just say I spoke to Ben Cowan yesterday — a great crypto analyst — and his view was very interesting. We both agreed that the sentiment towards Bitcoin right now is very much neutral to negative. I've seen it in the comments as well when I read comments on my previous videos. The interest and passion that used to be there for Bitcoin and crypto just isn't there right now. And as I said before, I think there's a lot of disbelief in this rally. Ben Cowan was saying that there isn't any enthusiasm whatsoever for Bitcoin and crypto at the moment — which, by the way, is in my view a contrarian bullish signal. If there isn't much enthusiasm, those are the right conditions for Bitcoin to potentially rally and take out that September high, which I think is what's going to happen. I'm looking for that September high to be taken out — that level is about $88K. What do you think about that? Do you agree that the sentiment being so apathetic at the moment is actually a positive sign?
Charlie Burton: Yeah. Because Bitcoin doesn't make 10% in a day anymore, people have gone elsewhere. There's a certain area of the investing public who are chasing the big gains, so they just move around. And don't get me wrong — there are still crypto miners out there that will still have those big swings and big gains and losses on a day-to-day basis. But your bigger names — your Bitcoins, your Ripples, your Ethereum — have less volatility now than they used to have. People chase volatility, so they start looking at other things as well.
But that's a good thing, because you always want markets to sneak their way up when the fewest investors are involved. The big players will be involved, but the masses often aren't. There will obviously be plenty of investors out there who are just long-term holders of crypto, of course, but the big masses who just shift from one thing to another — yes, I think that's a good sign if they're not involved, because more often than not, when they're not involved, it's when a market will move.
Daily chart and the broader bullish outlook
Alessio Rastani: Charlie, I think you mentioned there's something else you want to show on the daily chart. And as you're bringing up the daily chart, I was just going to say that apart from sentiment, seasonality for Bitcoin also turns positive around this period.
Charlie Burton: Absolutely. It is an important factor. And we're recording this post the midterms — we'll talk about that maybe on the stock video — but we're seeing risk assets respond, so far at least, to the midterm results, and Bitcoin responding positively as well. So I would keep an eye out for this, because it's early in the day that we're recording, but from a technical perspective, it could end up on quite a big engulfing-type bar here. If we were to close tonight — now, by the time your video goes out we don't know where this will be — but if it closes anything like this, it would be quite a strong reversal bar as well on the daily chart, right into this whole technical zone.
Alessio Rastani: I should just say before we finish this video that I'm not saying Bitcoin has definitely bottomed on that drop or pullback. But overall, whatever happens, as long as Bitcoin stays above key support, the bottom line is I'm still looking for this rally to continue — in other words, the rally that started from June. I'm looking for this eventually to go above the September high. So I'm still remaining moderately, cautiously bullish on Bitcoin.