Digital Asset News host discusses a potential Fed rate hike, another Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI, and low Bitcoin trading volume
Solo presenter Rob from Digital Asset News covers Federal Reserve rate decision speculation, Core Scientific's AMD AI infrastructure deal, and Bitcoin market conditions.
Summary
Rob from Digital Asset News covers three main topics: the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision, Core Scientific's pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure, and Bitcoin's historically low spot trading volume for July 2026. He plays a clip of economist Steve Miran — known for his association with the Council of Economic Advisers — arguing that a negative core CPI print would be an unusual trigger for a rate hike, while noting that even the most dovish voices would turn hawkish if long-term inflation expectations rise. Rob also highlights a record-breaking first half of 2026 for crypto hacks, with losses exceeding $1 billion and North Korean hackers responsible for nearly $600 million of that total.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Market Conditions
Rob: Looks like another Bitcoin miner is pivoting, and that's no surprise. I have to tip my hat to them because they are making a lot more revenue. But before we get into the Bitcoin mining operation, let's talk about what everybody is ingesting and thinking about today — the potential rate hike.
The Federal Reserve is meeting today and it looks like Powell may keep rates stable and not raise anything. However, the market is a little bit skittish today. We can see the S&P 500 is down. Bitcoin and crypto are down just a little bit over the last 24 hours, and even more so over seven days. The question is: what is Powell going to do?
From CNBC, it looks like he's likely to keep rates on hold, but there's going to be some strong dissension. As we talked about a couple of days ago, when the Federal governors meet and they have to vote, you get to see who is voting to not raise rates, to keep rates the same, to hike rates, and to lower rates. So if there is dissension among the ranks — because remember, Powell is just the head, he can't do everything himself — if they actually come in and vote that they should really be hiking rates, that means the market will get more bearish and we will see a little bit more red.
Now, that's just one side of the story. On the other side, Citadel Securities — a pretty big company — sees Powell delivering a surprise Fed hike today. That would go against what the probabilities are stating. It looks like roughly a third of people think there could be a rate hike, but two-thirds are saying no, he's going to keep it the same.
I think we should take it from the horse's mouth and look at what former Fed Governor Stephen Miran has to say. The announcement should be in the next hour or so, so we'll see where it lands. This is just speculation. Take a listen.
Stephen Miran on the Fed's Reaction Function
Stephen Miran: "I don't know what type of reaction function would say: in June I thought it was appropriate to hold rates steady, but then I had a negative core CPI print, and that's what pushed me over the edge to think I have to hike. I have a hard time imagining what type of reaction function would say core CPI being negative is what pushed me over the edge to hike.
How about the argument that people come up with — that for five years the Fed has been above its anticipated range of inflation? How and when do you have to deal with that?
Credibility is important, but the way that credibility manifests in monetary policy is through inflation expectations. And if inflation expectations started peaking upwards beyond the one-year horizon — i.e., beyond anything transitory — that's when you have to really get concerned. And if inflation expectations beyond the one-year horizon in the forward space started moving up, even I, as one of the most dovish people from the Fed, would get absolutely hawkish and say: this is the time to tighten."
Rob's Take on Inflation and Bitcoin's Long-Term Thesis
Rob: So if inflation starts to go up — and you heard it right here — Stephen Miran is the most dovish voice you have among Federal Reserve governors. And if he's saying, "Look, if we keep getting inflation going up, we cannot do that, we have to unfortunately hike those rates" — that is going to happen across the board. So I think that may be on the plate, but we will see what the print is today and go from there.
As a reminder, inflation never stops and money printing never stops, and this is why my thesis is that Bitcoin will never stop going up in price. There may be midterm years like this where we see a retraction and a pullback in Bitcoin, but over time I think this investment will do quite well. That is just me — don't take that as personal or financial advice.
As a reminder, we just hit an all-time high today. As of July 2026, we are at $23.155 trillion — an all-time high for the M2 money supply. Congratulations, everybody in America. We have printed ourselves to oblivion, and there's more money printing going forward.
Core Scientific Pivots to AI with AMD Deal
Rob: Now let me talk about the Bitcoin mining operations that are pivoting. We talked about this yesterday — Mara, Riot, CleanSpark, TeraWulf — and talked about why they're doing it. It's all pretty much AI. And now, this isn't the first rodeo: Core Scientific lands an AMD AI deal as Bitcoin mining operations wind down.
As we talked about yesterday, the hash rate has dropped and difficulty has dropped. That is good if you're a Bitcoin miner. The less competition you have, the less energy production you have to use, and you can mine more Bitcoin. Everything will stabilize — that's the beauty of Bitcoin mining. I'm not personally into it, but this is essentially what's happening.
So why did they do this? Core Scientific announced an infrastructure partnership with Advanced Micro Devices, anchored by 15-year leases for 529 megawatts of US AI capacity, which could generate more than $14 billion in base contracted revenue. I have no problems with these guys pivoting. Things just sometimes aren't profitable — that's pretty much how it goes. And if you don't have as many mining operations, that's not so bad. Other miners will pick up the slack.
The capacity is expected to support AMD customer deployments beginning in 2027. The agreements give AMD, under certain conditions, the right to reserve another 1,925 megawatts through 2028, potentially expanding the partnership to roughly 2.5 gigawatts. And if you look at the revenue for Core Scientific from Bitcoin mining, it is very minuscule compared to what they are bringing in with all of these AMD AI deals. So for me, this is just par for the course.
Bitcoin Spot Volume at Multi-Year Lows
Rob: The more things change, the more they stay the same. This to me is just another 2022. Here we go.
Bitcoin spot volume is on track for the weakest month since 2023. Muted activity across spot and derivatives markets has left July on track to record the lowest average daily Bitcoin spot trading volume since November of 2023.
As a quick reminder — November 2022 was the cycle low when we hit $15,700. Just one year later, in November 2023, it was at $35,000. That's more than a 2x in a year. I'll take it. Now, if you had dumped it into Ethereum, I don't remember exactly what Ethereum was, but it's roughly the price of Ethereum right now — $1,894. November 2023: BNB was lower at $244, XRP at 66 cents, Solana at $41, and so on.
Right now we are 49% from the all-time high. If you go back four years, we're actually 64% down from that peak. So there's a diminished return on investment, but there's also diminished volatility.
Going back to November 2023, you can see prices around $38,000, $37,000, $34,000 — and we were actually 48% down from the 2021 all-time high at that point. Roughly the same situation now, but we're just way ahead of the game. I still think this is a good time to accumulate.
If you look at the 200-week exponential moving average, we're pretty much kissing that right now at $63,550. Anything between the 250-week moving average at $58,000 and the 300-week moving average — if we ever hit that again at $55,000 — those would not be bad times to aim for accumulation.
Record Crypto Hacks in First Half of 2026
Rob: All those gains we just talked about — which sound pretty good — do you absolutely no good if you get hacked. Crypto hacks hit a record high in the first half of 2026, with losses topping $1 billion. This is the most hacked half-year on record. Even though 2025 saw $1.5 billion hacked for the full year, this first half alone has already crossed $1 billion, and I don't even want to know what's going to happen in the second half.
DPRK hackers were responsible for the largest share of money stolen, totaling nearly $600 million. Similar attacks will likely continue. Looking ahead, the report predicts the number of AI-related exploits will likely increase in the coming months. So it's great if you're able to 2x, but you're essentially working for all the hackers that screw you out of your hard-earned Bitcoin, altcoins, or whatever else it is.
Live Q&A
Rob: All right, let's get to the Q&A. Fat Sonic says FOMC day always gets him giddy. It does me too, because when I look at this I'm thinking: "All right, Powell, don't screw this up. Don't do something stupid like cutting rates just because Trump wants you to. I know you're your own man. Don't do that. That's not good for accumulation."
It's always interesting to see, especially when things break. Did they report any CPI numbers? No, that comes tomorrow — PCE and core PCE year-over-year come tomorrow. We'll see.
Rusty's right — it's a 60% chance of nothing happening. But remember, we have to look beyond that. It's not just whether they say "we're not going to cut rates." It's also all the different governors in the background signaling which way they're leaning. That's the thing.
Mary's here, Golfer's here, Ed's here, Kevin's here, Ferrar's here — it's evening for him. Rates hike, yes please. Let me ask you guys this: would you be more excited about a rate hike today, or about them doing nothing? I personally would like them to hike those rates, and then I would like to peruse over to Truth Social and see what DJT says about that. I'm sure it will be fireworks.
Also, if you're a fan of X — what was called Twitter back in the day — they are grilling Dr. Fauci right now and it is brutal. So if you're into that and you like seeing people squirm, that's something.
Rob, your thumbnail is hilarious. I was on the fence about that one — should I go a little bit funny or a little bit more serious? Sometimes funny wins out.
Golfer says, "If we hit the 300-week moving average, sell a kidney time." And he's right — if we hit the 300-week moving average at $55,000, wouldn't that be something? I know some people would flip out. I can see it happening. I think there are catalysts for that: one is an escalation in the war with Iran, the next is clarity legislation being stopped or outright defeated, and more hacks probably. Or if earnings reports this week show the traditional markets tumbling — Meta has already come and gone, Amazon's coming, Nvidia I think as well — if those earnings reports are horrible and the traditional market flounders, you will see the same thing in Bitcoin and altcoins, but even more so.
Lone Wolf is here. Serge is here. A rate hike guarantees a crash — I'm all for it too.
Regarding Fauci's diary — if you've read it, you're thinking, "Poor America, that was awful." I don't know how they got that diary, but it is pretty incriminating. He's got a pardon though, so he's not going to face anything.
Yeah, he got paid a lot of money. Hey Rob, nice shirt. Thank you — very easy to do, just wear these for live streams.
All right, everybody. That's it for today — it was a quick one. Tomorrow, bright and early, 9 Eastern, 6 a.m. Pacific, NFA Live will be back. Guy from Coin Bureau will be on, and Ben from Into the Cryptoverse will be there too. I'm sure a good amount of it will revolve around whatever gets said in the next 38 minutes. We'll see what happens and go from there.