Trump rejects Iran ceasefire offer, triggering broad market selloff across crypto, equities, and precious metals
Solo market commentary from the Digital Asset News channel, hosted by Rob.
Summary
Rob opens with a broad market overview triggered by Trump's rejection of Iran's proposed seven-day ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has sent equities, precious metals, and crypto into a simultaneous selloff. He argues that the geopolitical uncertainty, combined with rising diesel prices now exceeding $6.50 per gallon nationally, is likely to push inflation higher — undermining the narrative that assets like gold and Bitcoin are reliable short-term inflation hedges. Rob also covers the 2026 midterm election outlook via Polymarket data, a $380 million hack of the BitGet exchange, and a $2 million DeFi scam involving a fake GIWA blockchain. Despite the short-term turbulence, he remains long-term bullish, citing a chart shared by Dr. Pete St. showing the S&P 500's 4,180% gain since 1985 as evidence that holding financial assets through crises is the correct strategy. The episode also includes an extended live Q&A segment in which Rob responds to viewer comments on topics including European fuel prices, Polymarket's predictive track record, and specific altcoin moves such as Quant's 47%+ pump.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Market Overview: Monday Selloff Across Equities, Metals, and Crypto
Rob: Monday is here and it does not disappoint. Because of what Donald Trump just did, we are seeing some massive discounts. Here is where things are going a little crazy. The S&P 500 continues to drop as I'm talking — that's not uncommon. S&P 500 is down a little bit over the last couple of hours since it opened. Roughly three percent or so — not too bad. Over five days, over a month — not so good. Over six months — not too bad.
But it's not just the S&P 500 that is tumbling. Take a look at gold. Gold just wiped out roughly half a trillion dollars in eight hours. Looking at the graph of gold over a day — and you might say, "But Rob, that's not a big deal because it's just 24 hours." But look at three days. How about five days? How about a week? How about a month? How about two months? Not too bad actually. How about six months? Not too great. And if we take a look at up to a year, you've essentially round-tripped your bags with gold. Now, gold is a great hedge against inflation and there's nothing wrong with that. Silver is the same thing — look at this. So what is going on with precious metals, traditional markets, and also crypto?
Bitcoin just dropped below 83K — last 24 hours down 2.5%, seven days down 2%. Let me refresh this. Maybe things have gone up just a little bit. Still 83K as the bulls and the bears continue to battle. But again, the asset that is Bitcoin, the asset that is gold, and also silver, are supposed to be pretty good hedges against inflation.
Inflation Data and the Federal Reserve
We've taken a look at the personal consumption expenditure data — this is what the Federal Reserve is essentially watching — and we can see that the inflation rate has been going up since roughly the start of 2025. Back on the 1st of October we had a nice little crash — and people would say it's not a crash, but it was a crash — and from the 6th of October until roughly the 10th, we hit the all-time high and then just kept going down. But inflation kept going up. So if we're saying that all of these assets are hedges against inflation, that's not really holding up too well right now.
Now, we can take a look at the yearly, the two-year, and the five-year charts, and it does actually bear out over those longer timeframes. But in the grand scheme of things, the narrative falls a little bit short in the near term.
However, there are some good things on the horizon. Unfortunately, it is not the Federal Reserve. It looks like there is an increase in the number of predictions that at the October 20th Fed meeting, we're going to see another rate cut — roughly 72.5% versus 27.5%. And these are the target ranges people are saying: look, they're probably going to cut again, and there could be a third cut this year when they have their next meeting on the 9th of December. So is this already priced in? Potentially.
Trump Rejects Iran's Ceasefire Offer
But really, what it came down to is this: Trump said no. And this isn't a political channel — this is just what happened. And because of this, we're going to see a probable increase in the price of gas and diesel, which of course will increase inflation. So hopefully these assets actually work out.
Bitcoin slipped to below 83K as Trump rejected the Iran ceasefire offer. It seems like every week there's a ceasefire offer, and it seems like both sides say "we didn't say that," and then all of a sudden it's like, "Oh, they did agree," and then the other side says, "They're a bunch of liars." When we cover this, it's kind of ridiculous in my personal opinion, because nobody's telling the truth. Everybody's lying to get what they want, and that's just pretty much how negotiations go.
But this is what we have for today. Washington turned down Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is kind of odd because Iran just a week ago said they were going to close it for the entire year. Now all of a sudden they're saying, "Oh no, no, no — we want to open it up." And Washington's like, "We're not going to touch anything." How much do you want to bet that in roughly a couple of hours, Iran's going to go out and say, "No one said that. That's a lie." We'll see.
There was selling off in Asia trading on Monday as reports pointed to renewed US strikes after the midterms. And this is why midterm years are so volatile — the markets don't like ambiguity. They don't like not knowing what's going to happen. When you have a certain party in as president and then you have another party controlling Congress — both the Senate and the House — you have a problem. You can't push forward your agenda without the other side agreeing, unless you want to do an executive order, and even those can be shot down by the Supreme Court. Again, not a political channel — this is just how things work.
2026 Midterm Election Outlook via Polymarket
So what's going to happen in the midterm years? We're going to have a lame duck. Which party will win the Senate in 2026? This is from Polymarket, who I will remind you did a really good job of predicting the actual next president of the United States — Donald Trump in 2024. Did a fantastic job and caught everybody in a loop.
Democrats look like they're on the way to win at 63%. It was 55/45 — now we're hitting 63% to 38%. That's in the Senate, which I did not think the Democrats would actually take control of, but it looks like they might. And the House is just a foregone conclusion — looks like it's a 93% to 9% split, which I've got to tell you doesn't really add up, but whatever. So 90%-plus chance Democrats are going to take over the House, and it looks like it's going to be like a 60/40 split in the Senate. That means the sitting president of the United States for the next two years won't get much done. And because of that, we're going to see more ambiguity.
Now, moving forward — as we've talked about before — historically speaking, if you had actually bought on midterm election day, which is the first Tuesday in November (correct me in the comments section — I believe it's the 3rd of November), if you had done that, six to seven months later in the traditional markets you're up 15.8%. It's like the market goes, "Okay, this is what's going to happen. We understand. There's no ambiguity. Nothing's really going to get passed. At least we know the agenda." And that's when things start to really take off. So I still see that Q4 could be a very tumultuous quarter, but we'll see.
Diesel Prices and Inflation
The problem we have right now is inflation. Looks like diesel is up to $6.52, which — for all my viewers who are not in America — I would be curious to see what you guys are paying for gas over in Europe, over in Spain, France, the UK, places like that. Because every time I read the comments, it seems like here in America we're getting massive discounts compared to Europe. And if that's the case in Europe, how can you guys keep going like this?
Here's another thing to look at. This is from EIA.gov, where they took a look at just the nationwide price of diesel here in the United States. Look at these prices a year ago: $2.78 per gallon. As of September 21st, 2026, it was $6.52. On September 14th it was $6.28. On September 7th it was below $6. And that's the entire US average. You can break this down by geographical region, but you can see that two years ago, a year ago, those prices were pretty low and things were looking pretty good. Now we are double those prices. So expect that to hit even harder on the different goods and services that you buy moving forward.
I have to apologize because that's a very negative view on things. I'm sure it'll work itself out at some point — it's just going to be a little tumultuous in the short term. In the long term though, I'm still very bullish. I still feel really good. And it's not just because of these things we talk about, but the thesis always remains the same. As long as the US government and all governments out there continue to print their fiat currency and continue to debase the currency — whether that be the euro, the franc, the peso, or the US dollar — they're still going to debase the currency. And because of that, that is why I continue to buy Bitcoin.
The Long-Term Case for Holding Assets
Dr. Pete St. had a nice little chart today, and it reminds me of something that has been said many times that even I forget: when in doubt, zoom out. And this is a good one. Since 1985, the S&P is up 4,180%. If you take the M2 money supply and overlay it with the S&P, you'll see why that is. Basically, anybody who had financial assets in 2008 is a millionaire as long as they held on. Anybody who didn't is working into their 70s because they're working for a paycheck and putting it into savings, and of course that gets debased.
Almost all of these gains were since the 2008 crisis. I had to think about that — I'm like, damn, that's right. The S&P 500 had a nice time in the 90s — those were good times, college days for some of us older people. And then of course we had the 2000s, then the dot-com crash came — boop. Then we got into this little thing called the Great Recession, 2007–2009 — and then boop. And then of course, if you can get through those two monstrosities, this was your reward. Not too bad, I must say. So that's why we want to get into assets. That's why these little dips don't really frighten us too much, because those of you who are viewers are doing your job — you are buying in the bear.
BitGet Hack and Crypto Security Risks
Now, as we buy these assets, we have to make sure it's not how much you make in appreciation — it's how much you keep. This is the BitGet CEO. We talked about this with Jerry yesterday. Apparently there was a hack — they lost $380 million. Bummer. Apparently they have a $460 million fund which can reinvigorate all those lost assets. And as another reminder, as of today for the withdrawal schedule — this was put out by BitGet — you are able to withdraw your Bitcoin from the time it was hacked to today, UTC 08:00, which I think right now is like 4:00 PM. You can take out your Bitcoin, and I would highly recommend that if you have anything on BitGet. I'm sure a lot of you don't because most of you are in America and we can't use that. But if you do, I would definitely take it out. And I'm curious to see as the day goes on whether we see any fluctuations in their ability to keep up with the withdrawals.
Fake Blockchain Scam Drains $2 Million
The reason we talk about that is because these exchanges have many problems. And also there's stuff like this: a crypto scammer built an entire fake blockchain to steal over $2 million. Attackers used GIWA — an expected chain to come out — and a fraudulent bridge before changing the portal code and emptying deposits. Here's what happened: scammers built a counterfeit version of Upbit, which is another exchange-backed GIWA blockchain. They lured in almost 1,300 wallets. Those wallets deposited 767 ETH worth about $2 million before the scammers drained almost all of it.
So there is a dichotomy, a separation. People are losing their funds either because they leave them on an exchange, or they lose their funds because they're trying to play some DeFi game or get into the next greatest layer-one or layer-two solution — and they're losing everything. I'm tired of all these things. I'm tired of all these different chains. I'm tired of all these altcoins that are worthless and shouldn't be around. I wish they would just let us focus on the ones that work and build those up, because we don't need 10,000 chains. But again, this is the open market — anything can happen. I'm just a little bit tired of all these things.
So I'll just recommend, as we've talked about before: if you're going to diversify your assets, diversify your storage. I'm using iTrust for custody, also Trezor, a good amount of Ledger, and a bunch more ETFs. I'm also using iTrust's use of AI for their different strategies, which is looking not too bad. We're going to do a full video on their AI use within iTrust, which is also where I hold my retirement accounts and some of my custody. They're using AI built into the platform to make automated trades for me, which is working out not too bad.
Q&A and Live Chat
Rob: All right. H-bar price breaks out after an IBM cloud deal — that one's up. And there's also one from Quant — looks like that one's up over 47% in 24 hours. Another deal that came through. So again, there are some winners being chosen. I know if you have them, great. But I can't invest in all 40 winners that are out there. I just have my picks — I've got Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana. I've also got a little Hyperliquid, and Ondo, and Kaito. We'll see if those actually play out.
And of course, people say, "Well Rob, why don't you have this altcoin? I own this and you should own that." No — I only have so much money to put around. A lot of things go into precious metals and real estate, and different cryptos and different assets. I just don't have enough money. Believe it or not, I'm not a billionaire. So if I don't own your altcoin, it doesn't mean it's not going to make it. It just means I've gone this route, and this is where I'm going.
Kenny says, "I transferred tokens from Coinbase to Kraken. It cost base nothing." Pretty good. Very nice. I like Kraken.
Someone says they like Kraken more than Coinbase — cheaper and better choice. They do have a lot of choices, that's for sure.
In the UK, a gallon is close to $10. Is that diesel or regular unleaded? I'm just curious because — wow. I don't know how you guys make it in the UK. That's crazy. Rusty says 12 bucks per US gallon for diesel. Wow. I guess we really do have it good here in America.
Someone says Iran has Trump over an oil barrel. I don't know. We'll see how this all comes and plays out, because you've got one side saying we're decimating them, another side saying no, we're totally fine, we can take this and we're just going to wait till after the midterms. And one side's calling the other a liar. I don't know. All I know is that if we go back to 2022 when Bitcoin was between 20K and 15K — 15.7K was the low, and then it would bounce up around 18, 19, 20K — it really wouldn't have mattered if you bought it at 20K or 15K. Obviously 15K is better, I get it. But in the grand scheme of things, when you're up 126%, you'd be pretty happy. The academics can debate why it is and what's going on. I just want to make profits. That's pretty much it. We've done pretty good.
But it is always good to understand why things are happening so you can have a little bit of calmness in your life — you say, "Well, it's this thing or that thing," and then you feel better about spending way too much on crypto. Although, is it way too much? Yeah.
Free says, "I personally believe the Dems will lose the midterms as polls are highly flawed over and over." I think some of these polls are really flawed, especially if you go to specific sectors of the United States. And it's the same thing in any country out there — you go to a certain region, ask certain people, and it's like, "Oh, well, they're all voting this way, that means it's going to be a landslide." But I think what's great about Polymarket is that it takes the whole nation, and it doesn't really matter where you're from — everybody's a gambler, whether you're a Democrat or Republican. We're all gamblers in some way, and they can get some pretty good information. Again, we'll see if it plays out. But if it plays out this time like it played out in the presidential election, it was pretty accurate. I don't see Republicans keeping the House. It's the Senate — that's the big one.
Someone says, "I hope you guys don't think any president's in charge. They're all just actors." And: "Every politician is wrong and only some are useful. The same thing as models." Not like runway models — like economic models, engineering models. All models are wrong, some are useful. All politicians are wrong, some are useful. That's how I see it.
Someone says the prices are controlled by the big corporations. Yeah, perhaps. But it's good to know and understand that so you can ride that wave and go up.
Did you see Quant pump by 150%? Yeah. Didn't own a thing of it. So for me, I'm like — congratulations, Quant holders. That was not me.
So look, today is a nice little sale day. I'm sure tomorrow there'll be another news article about how all of a sudden we magically made a deal, and then everybody will call each other a liar, and we'll just repeat this until we get it done.