Bitcoin DCA analysis showing all days and most assets in profit from the 2025 all-time high
A solo presenter from Digital Asset News walks through a Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging simulation showing that consistent buying from the 2025 all-time high would have kept most investors in profit.
Summary
The host from Digital Asset News presents a DCA (dollar-cost averaging) simulation using a Bitcoin DCA tool, demonstrating that investors who bought consistently from the 2025 all-time high of approximately $125,000 would still be in profit today at $78,000. He extends the analysis to compare Bitcoin against several altcoins — Ethereum, BNB, Solana, Tron, and HyperLiquid — finding that Tron and Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin across multiple day-of-week combinations and also across longer historical time frames dating back to November 2021 and the November 2022 lows, where Tron and Solana were the standout winners. He also covers Coinbase's new crypto-backed mortgage product, which is Fannie Mae-backed and offered via better.com, allowing users to pledge Bitcoin or USDC as collateral for a down payment with no margin calls, though the interest rate runs 0.5–1.5% above a standard 30-year fixed, putting it at roughly 7–8% today. Solana's record on-chain transaction count of 4.2 billion in July (up 13.5% month-over-month) is flagged as a narrative worth watching alongside real-world asset tokenization, now above a $38 billion market cap. The host shares a practical security tip using VirusTotal and AI tools to verify downloaded files and avoid scams, and closes with a reminder that investors should begin thinking about price targets for taking profits and laddering out — a topic he signals will become more prominent in future discussions.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Introduction and the DCA thesis
Host: As the thumbnail and title suggest, if you would have done this, you would be in profit right now. It looks like everybody is actually in profit just from doing this one small thing. We're going to go over exactly what that is. This is not a "I told you so" moment, or a claim that this is the only way to do things. What I'm trying to say, as we get into it, is that now is the time to really start thinking about taking action — or just taking action in general — because I believe the massive, bigger gains are going to come in the future. These current gains are nice, they're cute and adorable, but as time goes on, this will look like nothing.
Coinbase crypto-backed mortgage
Host: As far as price appreciation goes, I just found this today and thought it was quite interesting: Coinbase is going for crypto-backed mortgages. I don't think this covers the whole mortgage — it's the down payment. What's interesting about this, and what sets it apart from what Celsius, FTX, and BlockFi did, is that there are no margin calls. Whatever you put in for the Bitcoin — and I'm not saying you should do this, I'm not going to do it, I just thought it was interesting that people will — it may lock some Bitcoin up so people can't sell it.
What they're offering is a crypto-backed mortgage. You can put in your Bitcoin — it looks like Bitcoin only — and use it for a down payment. Plus, Coinbase One members can get up to $10,000 back at closing. You can apply via better.com, use Bitcoin as collateral, get $10,000 back, and reclaim your crypto. What's great about this is that there are no taxes on it, because you're doing what the wealthy do: using their assets as collateral for a loan, taking money out against that loan, paying your down payment, and then hopefully in 10 or 20 years, when you pay it off, that Bitcoin is worth 10 to 20 thousand times more. Who knows — there are a lot of price predictions out there.
Just to confirm it's real: yes, Coinbase and Veteran have launched the first Fannie Mae-backed crypto-backed mortgage. It uses Bitcoin or USDC as collateral. Why would anybody use USDC as collateral? I would just transfer that over to cash, but I digress.
As for what it costs — and they state it very clearly — the product isn't free. The rate on a crypto-backed mortgage runs 50 basis points to 1.5% above a standard 30-year fixed. So with today's rate around 6.25% to 6.5%, you're looking at somewhere between 7% and 8%. It's a good business move for Coinbase. I'm not sure it's for everybody, but I thought it was interesting that they're offering it.
DCA simulation: Bitcoin from the all-time high
Host: That leads us to the main point: everybody's in profit. I was kind of blown away by this. The claim was that if you had just dollar-cost averaged from even the top — even the very top — you would still be in profit today.
What is the price of Bitcoin today? Boring: $78,000. Well, it's not boring after three, four, five days of it going from roughly $64,000–$65,000 to $78,000 — that's nice. Ethereum at $2,500, BNB, XRP, and so on.
I'm using a Bitcoin DCA simulation tool. Let's say we started at the very tippity-top, as Trump likes to say. Let's take October 6th, 2025, and put in $30 a week. I don't want to break the bank — $30 a week, Bitcoin only. And look at that. Even if you had put in $30 a week, you'd be up a whopping 1.17%. Now, granted, it's not much. But isn't that crazy? We were at $125,000, and all you had to do was keep buying all the way down.
I personally stopped for a while, but I've been doing it for a solid six months or so and it's done pretty well. I don't think we're at our peak, but it is interesting that if you had just kept buying, it would have worked out. This has been the thesis I've been harping on forever, because I screwed up in 2018 — I didn't keep buying like I should have. Then in 2022, I did something called micro DCA, which was a mistake. That's on me. But this time I said I'm just going to keep buying, especially when risk levels are low.
Day-of-week DCA comparison
Host: Now let's look at days of the week. I picked Saturday randomly — let me try Monday. I DCA every Monday at around 6:30 a.m., and I'd actually be up 2% doing $30 a week. How about Tuesday? 2.08%. Not too bad. Wednesday? Up 2%. Thursday? Now this is interesting — look at this. If you had done Thursday, you'd be down $58. Interesting, right? So it does matter what day you DCA. Let that sink in. Thursday you'd actually be down 4%, as opposed to just doing it on Monday. How about Friday? Friday you're up almost 3%. Saturday, as we saw. Sunday? 1.85%.
Dynamic DCA results
Host: Here's where it gets good. You all know that I DCA, but I do what's called dynamic DCA — meaning when the price goes down, I double, quadruple, or 8x my buy from whatever my base amount is. Some weeks it was quite a substantial increase, and even I was like, "Ooh, this is a lot." But it hasn't failed me yet.
Let's do a dynamic DCA and see where we're at. Same setup — $30 a week base, Bitcoin only — but I increased my buys on dips. If I did that on Sunday, I'd be up 8%. Saturday? 7%. Friday? Almost 10% up, without doing anything except keep buying. Thursday — the one where we would have been down — we're actually in the green. Wednesday? Almost 10%. Tuesday? 10%. Monday? 10.19%.
Altcoin DCA comparison
Host: Sounds pretty good, right? What if I told you you would have done better with altcoins? Well, that's not what everybody tells me. They say altcoins are dead, they're the worst things of all time, Bitcoin is king. Well, check this out.
We hit the top. Let's compare the assets — DCA equal amounts — and compare Bitcoin to what I'll call the best: Binance, Ethereum, Solana, Tron, and I'm going to throw in HyperLiquid just for the hell of it. So: Ethereum, BNB, Solana, Tron, and Hype.
Now, remember — this is from October 6th, 2025, the tippy-top, to today, August 26th. If we hover over here: wouldn't you be surprised? All things being equal, $30 a week into Solana puts you at 0.8% — not great, Bitcoin beat you. But Ethereum beat Bitcoin, and Tron beat Bitcoin. Actually, Tron beat the pants off Bitcoin from the all-time high. You're up almost 12%. Didn't do anything.
I know people say altcoins suck, they don't do anything. And you're right, some do. But you've got to pick the right ones. It's like picking the right businesses. Right now the whole game is AI, so it's picking the right AI companies and the infrastructure. It was the same thing back in the dot-com era — are you going to invest in pets.com or are you going to invest in amazon.com? That's really what it comes down to. I have a feeling that not all of these will work. Binance, Ethereum, Solana, Tron — one or two are going to fail. Hell, even three could fail. But I'm okay with that. I just want that one Amazon.
Let's look at different days of the week for the altcoin comparison. Tuesday: Tron and Ethereum still beat Bitcoin. Wednesday: Tron and Ethereum still beat Bitcoin. Thursday — the worst day for Bitcoin — look at that. Tron would actually be up 10%, Bitcoin only 4%. Friday: Tron and Ethereum. Saturday: Tron, Ethereum, Bitcoin.
And remember when I said the bigger gains are ahead of us? What if we go all the way back to 2021 — November, somewhere around the 10th — all the way to today? Tron still beats Bitcoin. Amazing. Solana is almost there at 80%. BNB at 68%. ETH is really struggling.
What if we go to 2022, the last major crash? Let's say November 14th — near the low — and you started DCA-ing from there. Tron and Solana would be the big winners. Bitcoin would be up 60% and BNB almost there. So again, it's all about finding those winners and really doubling down, quadrupling down, 8x-ing down. If you don't like altcoins, that's fine. But I look at Bitcoin and I think there is more of an increase ahead of us.
Solana on-chain activity and real-world assets
Host: There were two other things I wanted to mention. First, from a Cabishi letter on Solana: total on-chain transaction count on Solana hit a record 4.2 billion in July, up 13.5% month over month. This is contributing to the increase in Solana on-chain trading activity for tokenized assets, with the real-world assets market cap now above $38 billion. Pay attention to that narrative — I think it's going to be a pretty big thing. If you believe in that, you might look at XRP, Ethereum, Solana, BNB as the relevant assets. Tron is more of a payments play, especially with Tether. But if Solana is doing well in that space, maybe it's one of those winners to keep in your back pocket.
Security: avoiding scams and verifying downloads
Host: The last thing I want to share is a little security trick I came across that I think might help you. There are going to be a lot more engineered scams, and a lot more people getting ripped off. Always go to the source.
Here's what happened on my phone yesterday. I keep getting calls from a 650 area code — which is in California, where Google is essentially based — and the call says something like, "Hey, your two-factor change request has been initiated. If you didn't make this change to your account, please press one." And of course, someone then tries to scam you. About ten minutes before that call, someone from a different number had already said, "Hey, there's something wrong with your two-factor authenticator."
The mindset I want you to have is this: you are the king or the queen. The king doesn't let just anyone into his kingdom. When he wants to speak to someone, he reaches out to them. Everyone reaching out to you unsolicited is a nobody. You are the one who decides who you're going to contact. Eliminate all inbound unsolicited contact and you'll do quite well. I didn't even respond to the call because it's not worth it.
Here's the other practical tip. I wanted to get some camera filters back — I used to use Snap Camera for a clown face effect during what I called "clown news" segments, but Snap Camera dissolved. So I asked Claude how to get a similar filter, and it recommended a product called Stream Frog. Stream Frog wanted me to download a program, and I thought, "Great, another potential problem."
So what I did was take the Stream Frog link and send it back to Claude, asking it to double-check the link for any maliciousness and confirm it was the correct URL. It came back and said yes, this is the correct website, not a malicious or spoofing domain, you'll be fine.
Then when it asked me to download something, I thought about how often this happens — someone wants you to download a PDF, a Word document, fill in the blank — and you don't want to download a thing. So what you do is take that link and stick it into Claude, Grok, ChatGPT, or whatever you use, and say, "Evaluate this program. Make sure it's not malicious, won't take my private keys, won't scam me." And Claude pointed me to virustotal.com. You go there, choose the file you've already downloaded, and run a free scan. It tells you the publisher, their GitHub, their reputation rating, how many downloads they've had — the whole picture. In my case it came back clean.
I am paranoid about getting screwed over and losing everything, so I wanted to share that with you to make sure you're on the up and up.
Q&A and closing thoughts
Host: Someone in the comments says their average Bitcoin price is $61,944, so they're in the green. And this is where it gets fun, because everybody who laughed at you — friends, family, loved ones saying "that's just internet nerd money, it's going to go to zero" — you know what you have. I hear Dan Peña say it's going to go to zero all the time, and Peter Schiff said it's going to $20k, which is actually better than his older predictions. It's very difficult to go against friends, family, and loved ones, but it works out.
The big thing to start thinking about now is your price points for selling. Some people say they'll never sell — that's up to you. My goals are not your goals. But at some point it is nice to have some cash in the bank, especially when things go down. Wouldn't it have been great to sell at around $125k, $110k, $111k? I missed the top — I was talking about getting out when Bitcoin was around $98k, so it wasn't anything fantastic. But imagine buying at $98k and then buying again at $60k, $59k, $58k, $64k. Not too bad.
Someone in the chat says "buy high and sell low" — only half of someone else's prosperity. If we could just nail those tops. I think we've got the bottoms pretty much covered with dollar-cost averaging. But at some point we need to start talking about laddering out, and that'll be a conversation for the next couple of years or so.